Management Travis Green [Head Coach]

[Icelevel]

I think the problem is that quite frankly, we have one elite offensive talent in Timmy. There's lots of other guys who are good: Batherson, Giroux, Brady. Norris is an average offensive player with a great shot. Guys like Pinto and Greig have potential but their development has stagnated.

So the stat is a good reflection of roster composition, in my opinion. We simply do not have enough high-end offensive talent.

Or size and strength

 

[jbeck5]

The Sens have three forwards in the top 32 of NHL scoring. We are short of depth, not high-end offensive talent. And our dmen don’t contribute enough - no real shot threats, Chabot’s a good possession player but not all that creative in the offensive zone and Sanderson is struggling. That’s really the crux of the issue, our high-end talent is not necessarily at the level of a cup winning team but there are playoff teams with less.

Maybe we need to figure out how to roll the lines.

Put your best offensive play (stutzle/Hossa) on your first line. Put your second best offensive player (Tkachuk/Alfredsson) on your second line. Put your third best offensive forward (batherson/havlat) on your third line.

Now try to make 3 duos with the rest of your lineup to play on lines 1 through 3.

Then have 4 speedy guys who crash and bang on your 4th line as an energy line.

Gotta build that depth up by having it play with a top 3 player on the team so they can get going and play confidentiality.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

“Odd” question. Minnesota is leading on the basis of save percentage with .926.

Yet the point stands. Would you consider us to have a better winning mentality if that were the cases? If our goalies were stopping everything would you then think our defence had played any better, or any worse? Our GA/GP would CERTAINLY be better. So….

 

[Micklebot]

A point shot with traffic in front of the net would be a low danger scoring chance. A player in front of the goalie pushing it into the goalies pad would be a higher danger chance.

That tells you all you need to know about the garbage in, garbage out data models of the Moneyball crowd.

The models certainly aren't perfect, but xG models have been shown to be 79-85% accurate in terms of predicting goals based on the input variables.

The reality is most point shots have traffic in front, and while that makes it harder for the goalie to see, it also makes it far more likely to get blocked. Any resulting rebound shot, tip or deflection would likely be considered a scoring chance or high danger chance and rightly so.

So, if you want to throw out everything because you found an example where you think the model under or overvalued a shot, by all means go ahead, but in terms of criticisms, it's not a particularly strong one when compared to the evidence showing how well the model as a whole works.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Yes NST does, any they weren’t last, trying different combos of parameters.

I just plugged the numbers from NST into an excel sheet and Ottawa is dead last in HDSF as a percentage of all SF, with only 33% of all shots being considered high danger shots. It was higher than the numbers quoted by the tweet but I'm using all strengths for my calculation.

 

[Micklebot]

I just plugged the numbers from NST into an excel sheet and Ottawa is dead last in HDSF as a percentage of all SF, with only 33% of all shots being considered high danger shots. It was higher than the numbers quoted by the tweet but I'm using all strengths for my calculation.

33% seems reaaaaally high. I think you may have made a mistake. I suspect you used HDCF rather than HD shots for.

Either way, I have no doubt Ottawa is last, looking at the raw data, where I'm a bit unsure is in terms of how important this metric is. Like, if we just stopped taking shots from the point ever, our % of HD shots as a total of all shots would improve, but would that make us a better team, probably not.

edit: Just ran the r2 for HDSH as a % of total shots to win%, .129 (5v5) and .117 (all situation), so not exactly a strong predictor of success.

Edit2: For comparison, the r2 for xGF% to Win% is .400 for both 5v5 and all situation.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I just plugged the numbers from NST into an excel sheet and Ottawa is dead last in HDSF as a percentage of all SF, with only 33% of all shots being considered high danger shots. It was higher than the numbers quoted by the tweet but I'm using all strengths for my calculation.

Here is NST, they are 20th all strengths
No need to plug in numbers just read the columns.

HDSH% all strengths

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

HDSF% all strengths

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Micklebot]

Here is NST, they are 20th all strengths
No need to plug in numbers just read the columns.

Btw - 24% is the highest in the league for HDSH%

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

What stats are you using, I came up with different numbers for all strength when calculating the r2,

188 HD shots, 835 shots for = 21.7% and last in the league.

Oh, I just realized, you are looking at the HD shot shooting % not the % of shots taken which are HD shots.

 

[Golden_Jet]

What stats are you using, I came up with different numbers for all strength when calculating the r2,

188 HD shots, 835 shots for = 21.7% and last in the league.

Oh, I just realized, you are looking at the HD shot shooting % not the % of shots taken which are HD shots.

I updated my post while you were posting
So I went to glossary, to see what it said

High Danger Shots - Any shot attempt on net (goals and shots on net) that qualifies as a High Danger Scoring Chance.

HDSH% - Percentage of High Danger Shots for that team that were Goals.%

HDSF% - Percentage of total Shots that are High Danger Scoring Chances in games that team played that are for that team. HDSF*100/(HDSF+HDSA)

The whole point being, it’s nice to see what parameters people use when posting, otherwise guessing.

 

[Beech]

The Sens have three forwards in the top 32 of NHL scoring. We are short of depth, not high-end offensive talent. And our dmen don’t contribute enough - no real shot threats, Chabot’s a good possession player but not all that creative in the offensive zone and Sanderson is struggling. That’s really the crux of the issue, our high-end talent is not necessarily at the level of a cup winning team but there are playoff teams with less.

I read your posts. You make some valid points, but are leaving off basic math.

in the 3 point era. A true 0.50 record is around 90 points at years end. Suggesting that at game 27, they needed to be at 29 or 30 points, just to be a true 0.500 team.

they are at 26...That alone is concerning. They are unable to play 0.50 in terms of pure wins and loses.

They finished 7th from the bottom last year. That earns them a favorable first 1/4 of the season schedule. You can see this by the 2 games against Anaheim. Games against Utah, Buffalo, Detroit, and the other low finishing teams from last year. They have yet to really go through the leagues upper teams from last season.

From roughly games 22 to games 65 will be against the top 1/3 and middle 1/3 from last year. It could mean a continuation of the sub 0.500 pure win/loss.

The World Juniors are coming. They will be on the road for about 3 weeks. All the while playing against tougher opponents than those they faced October to late November. That could guarantee a below 0.500 win/loss.

Come season's end, this team may just be at the 80-85 point mark.

meanwhile the 10 or so teams above them, have 6 that were last year's elite, so their schedule gets easier. And 4 were mid table, their schedule remains as balanced as it has been since the start. So all 10 could in fact improve on their results to date.

This team should have been and needed to be at 30-31 points, just to be a bubble team.

 

[Big Muddy]

I do not deny there are other issues present, it was destined to be a bubble team and we knew that, but I still think they'll have to figure out a backup solution if they only get 3 quality starts and 7 dreadful ones out of 10.

Of the above, I think arguably the biggest are Sanderson and Pinto. Sanderson was supposed to be the driver offensively but he isn't that right now and it's a hole in the lineup. Pinto I think not only has been a disappointment, but the 3rd line guys in general look better and produce more if Pinto was playing as we expect. They're a bit offensively challenged up front, but I think they have more to give and many are snake bitten all at once. Signs of life from Pinto recently, so hopefully that changes. They also lack a top 6 forward for Stu to play with, but I have no solutions to that other than waiting for Perron and hoping he balances the lineup better, even if he's not the guy in the top 6.

Zub for Hamonic too. We all know Hammer does not belong on the top pairing, whether you love him or hate him.

We would have to find a way of dumping Forsberg (or other salary) and then find a better backup. Maybe I’m too cynical, but I doubt that is going to happen. Hope I’m wrong, but in-season trades are not easy to pull off.

We didn’t have a lot of cap to start the year iirc (a few hundred k), so I guess the focus was on acquiring Ullmark (& the other moves). I have no idea if Staois wanted to move on from Forsberg. So, in the meantime, I guess we have to rely on Ullmark carrying a heavy load (50+ games or whatever) as ostensibly there is no other way for us to win. Maybe Staois thought our 5v5 scoring would be a lot better and our team D would be more stout? I do see good team’s goalies letting in soft goals and still manage to win. Oh well.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I read your posts. You make some valid points, but are leaving off basic math.

in the 3 point era. A true 0.50 record is around 90 points at years end. Suggesting that at game 27, they needed to be at 29 or 30 points, just to be a true 0.500 team.

they are at 26...That alone is concerning. They are unable to play 0.50 in terms of pure wins and loses.

They finished 7th from the bottom last year. That earns them a favorable first 1/4 of the season schedule. You can see this by the 2 games against Anaheim. Games against Utah, Buffalo, Detroit, and the other low finishing teams from last year. They have yet to really go through the leagues upper teams from last season.

From roughly games 22 to games 65 will be against the top 1/3 and middle 1/3 from last year. It could mean a continuation of the sub 0.500 pure win/loss.

The World Juniors are coming. They will be on the road for about 3 weeks. All the while playing against tougher opponents than those they faced October to late November. That could guarantee a below 0.500 win/loss.

Come season's end, this team may just be at the 80-85 point mark.

meanwhile the 10 or so teams above them, have 6 that were last year's elite, so their schedule gets easier. And 4 were mid table, their schedule remains as balanced as it has been since the start. So all 10 could in fact improve on their results to date.

This team should have been and needed to be at 30-31 points, just to be a bubble team.

Sens are middle of the pack in schedule so far and remaining

First chart remaining schedule strength
Second chart, played schedule strength

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

 

[UglyPuckling]

The Sens have three forwards in the top 32 of NHL scoring. We are short of depth, not high-end offensive talent. And our dmen don’t contribute enough - no real shot threats, Chabot’s a good possession player but not all that creative in the offensive zone and Sanderson is struggling. That’s really the crux of the issue, our high-end talent is not necessarily at the level of a cup winning team but there are playoff teams with less.

Agree mostly with what you are saying. But, it would be nice to find a high end skill forward that could play & think the game at the same level as Stutzle. That might have to come via the draft I suppose given that the Senators are small market Canadian team.

I also think we need another high end defenseman. Zub has already been injured a lot and I’d wonder if that will continue. I guess that could eventually be Yakemchuk (1 year, 2 years, x years).

The other thing is it would be really refreshing to hear Senator fans & team talk about much higher goals than just barely squeaking in to the playoffs. It seems like the high end of our ambitions and goals is to be a mediocre team (around .500). I understand why it boils down to this given history, but’s its rather sad to have such low expectations. We spend so much time scraping the advanced stats to find a glimmer of hope, but in the meantime our win/loss record leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[Micklebot]

Sens are middle of the pack in schedule so far and remaining

First chart remaining schedule strength
Second chart, played schedule strength

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

Not sure why, but that link isn't working for me,

That said, the Tankathon version of SoS is, and a lot of the teams we are fighting for that last spot (NYI, NYR, Bos, Det and Buf) all have tougher schedules, while Phi, Pens, Clb and Mtl have very similar SoS remaining. The only team we're chasing with a significantly easier schedule is TbL

 

[Golden_Jet]

Not sure why, but that link isn't working for me,

That said, the Tankathon version of SoS is, and a lot of the teams we are fighting for that last spot (NYI, NYR, Bos, Det and Buf) all have tougher schedules, while Phi, Pens, Clb and Mtl have very similar SoS remaining. The only team we're chasing with a significantly easier schedule is TbL

Weird not working now
Sens were 18th on site, I see tankathon it’s 20th (with 1 being hardest)

So similar between sites

 

[Micklebot]

I read your posts. You make some valid points, but are leaving off basic math.

in the 3 point era. A true 0.50 record is around 90 points at years end. Suggesting that at game 27, they needed to be at 29 or 30 points, just to be a true 0.500 team.

they are at 26...That alone is concerning. They are unable to play 0.50 in terms of pure wins and loses.

They finished 7th from the bottom last year. That earns them a favorable first 1/4 of the season schedule. You can see this by the 2 games against Anaheim. Games against Utah, Buffalo, Detroit, and the other low finishing teams from last year. They have yet to really go through the leagues upper teams from last season.

From roughly games 22 to games 65 will be against the top 1/3 and middle 1/3 from last year. It could mean a continuation of the sub 0.500 pure win/loss.

The World Juniors are coming. They will be on the road for about 3 weeks. All the while playing against tougher opponents than those they faced October to late November. That could guarantee a below 0.500 win/loss.

Come season's end, this team may just be at the 80-85 point mark.

meanwhile the 10 or so teams above them, have 6 that were last year's elite, so their schedule gets easier. And 4 were mid table, their schedule remains as balanced as it has been since the start. So all 10 could in fact improve on their results to date.

This team should have been and needed to be at 30-31 points, just to be a bubble team.

Bubble isn't a static number, it depends on how the teams are playing this year.

Right now, the way teams are pacing, the wild card spots could go to teams with 90 pts ( Bos) and 88 pts (NYR). Bubble is anyone in striking distance of that, however the next closest teams are pacing at 85 pts, and two at 79. so there's some catching up to do.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We would have to find a way of dumping Forsberg (or other salary) and then find a better backup. Maybe I’m too cynical, but I doubt that is going to happen. Hope I’m wrong, but in-season trades are not easy to pull off.

We didn’t have a lot of cap to start the year iirc (a few hundred k), so I guess the focus was on acquiring Ullmark (& the other moves). I have no idea if Staois wanted to move on from Forsberg. So, in the meantime, I guess we have to rely on Ullmark carrying a heavy load (50+ games or whatever) as ostensibly there is no other way for us to win. Maybe Staois thought our 5v5 scoring would be a lot better and our team D would be more stout? I do see good team’s goalies letting in soft goals and still manage to win. Oh well.

It is true that they'd need to deal with the salary. An issue for sure and possibly no solution there. As far as finding a better backup, I just don't know how you can do worse than what Forsberg has put up this year. Those stats posted by Micklebot seem pretty damning. 3 excellent starts and 7 awful starts. Gotta be some shit we can fling at the wall that at least might be better than that, no?

I think they'd hoped he would bounce back. I had the same hopes but have lost them at this point. The guy gives me no confidence when he's in net atm. None at all.

 

[LiseL]

Agree mostly with what you are saying. But, it would be nice to find a high end skill forward that could play & think the game at the same level as Stutzle. That might have to come via the draft I suppose given that the Senators are small market Canadian team.

I also think we need another high end defenseman. Zub has already been injured a lot and I’d wonder if that will continue. I guess that could eventually be Yakemchuk (1 year, 2 years, x years).

The other thing is it would be really refreshing to hear Senator fans & team talk about much higher goals than just barely squeaking in to the playoffs. It seems like the high end of our ambitions and goals is to be a mediocre team (around .500). I understand why it boils down to this given history, but’s its rather sad to have such low expectations. We spend so much time scraping the advanced stats to find a glimmer of hope, but in the meantime our win/loss record leaves a lot to be desired.

I can only speak for myself, but IMO it'll take years to build a contender so I think this team right now is a bubble team, not a team that is only 1-2 pieces away from being a contender. It's difficult having higher goals at the moment when making the playoffs is still in question.