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GDT: Training Camp 2021: Everyone Else Too Lazy to Make a Thread

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TheBloodyNine said:
I loved this aspect of the article. "My original model had him as elite, so I changed it and now he's not." :laugh: what a load of horse shit.
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Here's what was actually said :

That’s if you’re a big believer in the team’s goalie of the future, Igor Shesterkin. He certainly looked the part to start his career with a .929 save percentage over his first 12 games, saving six goals above expected. That’s half a goal per game, which would be an absolutely ludicrous full-season mark.

A 12-game sample is hardly enough to go on though. Shesterkin has a lot of pedigree, frequently being called the best goalie outside the NHL before his arrival, but this is a position with a lot of variance where it’s better to be safe than sorry. Before the season started I made some big changes to the goaltending portion of the model and one of those changes really impacted small sample goalies like Shesterkin. Essentially, I separated goalies into three buckets based on their previous samples, and when regressing to the mean I only used the averages from the bucket the goalie belonged to. For Shesterkin, that was any goalie with a low volume of shots, basically regressing him towards replacement level rather than average. That he still grades out as a legitimate starter despite that is very impressive, but that still may be lower than many were expecting.

It’s a necessary evil though as Shesterkin is going to have to take more time to prove his worth. Before the switch, the model projected Shesterkin as an elite-level goalie next season worth over two wins. That was enough to put the team at fifth in the East division. While I don’t doubt Shesterkin has an elite ceiling, 12 games into his career is just way too early to make that call.
As good as he has looked, there is a non-zero chance he doesn’t fully live up to expectations.
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there are a lot of fanbases unhappy with the goaltending modeler as it makes their rookie/young goalies look worse. it's not just Shesterkin.
 
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TominNC said:
No expectations means exactly that. Don’t EXPECT either result. They have a wide range of possibilities because they have a greater number of unknowns than most teams.
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Yeah, and these stats models also fail to take into account that Kakko will destroy the NHL this season and get uptowards 80-90 pts — despite — the shortened season. If you enter that into the parameters we would be predicted to do a lot better actually.
 
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GAGLine said:
Dom on the Athletic posted his Rangers preview. It's about what I expected, though I found this interesting:



So maybe it's not all Panarin, as some suggest.
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I didn't watch Panarin much when he was on the Blackhawks and Blue Jackets but his passing ability immediately impressed me when he became a Ranger, especially the first pass he makes after gaining the offensive zone. It's nice to see official stats back that up because he is so clearly above the level of most other players just from the eye test.

Also is the high variance in the projections for the Rangers due to how many young players they have?
 
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Bruins are vulnerable in a short season. No chara Marchand and pasta banged up. No krug. Those are big losses.

Pittsburgh is hardly anything special. Yes they have Crosby and Malkin when healthy but they’ve struggled

Washington is getting older and we have played them well. Not impressed.

Philly is going to be good AV teams are and they’re a bad match up for us. They feed off turnovers.

islanders have less talent than they did they’ll be a tough tough team but barely squeaked into playoffs. We will compete with them for a spot.

devils suck

sabres suck

Now that we have elite goaltending we can do some things again. I said it last year when Igor came up and that will hold true.
 
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NYR94 said:
I didn't watch Panarin much when he was on the Blackhawks and Blue Jackets but his passing ability immediately impressed me when he became a Ranger, especially the first pass he makes after gaining the offensive zone. It's nice to see official stats back that up because he is so clearly above the level of most other players just from the eye test.

Also is the high variance in the projections for the Rangers due to how many young players they have?
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Yes. Dom talks about that.

The team has a lot of young players and that makes forecasting their season even more challenging. That’s especially true since a lot of those young players either haven’t played an NHL game yet, or have looked lackluster in their careers so far. This model uses a basic age curve that won’t forecast sudden, huge leaps. That’s a scary thought for a Rangers team filled with kids who have the potential to take large steps in the years ahead.
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Kovalev27 said:
Bruins are vulnerable in a short season. No chara Marchand and pasta banged up. No krug. Those are big losses.

Pittsburgh is hardly anything special. Yes they have Crosby and Malkin when healthy but they’ve struggled

Washington is getting older and we have played them well. Not impressed.

Philly is going to be good AV teams are and they’re a bad match up for us. They feed off turnovers.

islanders have less talent than they did they’ll be a tough tough team but barely squeaked into playoffs. We will compete with them for a spot.

devils suck

sabres suck

Now that we have elite goaltending we can do some things again. I said it last year when Igor came up and that will hold true.
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the thought of Bruins tanking the shortened season and winding up with the #1-10OA :puke:

Sabres could bounceback. I wouldn't totally discount them. That many roster changes normally don't work but the Eric Staal - Jeff Skinner reunion could go well. Actually reunions usually don't go well either but they have 2 decent lines and more experience overall. They had two season halves of total domination before inexplicably nose-diving so their team is capable of winning.
 
n8 said:
the thought of Bruins tanking the shortened season and winding up with the #1-10OA :puke:

Sabres could bounceback. I wouldn't totally discount them. That many roster changes normally don't work but the Eric Staal - Jeff Skinner reunion could go well. Actually reunions usually don't go well either but they have 2 decent lines and more experience overall. They had two season halves of total domination before inexplicably nose-diving so their team is capable of winning.
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no foundation. They still don’t have a real goaltender. They don’t have much on D although Dahlin is going to be a stud.
But without legs you’ve got nothing to stand on.
 
Dom's model is interesting to look at. He fully acknowledges limitations, like the difficulty with projecting small-sample goaltending performances and evaluating players like Kakko who were absolutely terrible but anecdotally project to much better. For someone like Kakko, there's not much in the way of statistical modeling that can be done to project him going from being awful to a solid contributor; we all know it can happen but this is a model, not just a dude's best guesses. This is one of the large reasons there's a lot of variance attributed to the team is his model, and he outright says that the Rangers are tough to predict as any outcome--the team exploding as multiple young players emerge, the team maintaining more of a status quo, the team struggling, etc.--are all very plausible.

I'd honestly rather read a season preview with projections based on a statistical model, even one with limitations, than one where it's just some dude with only a cursory knowledge of all of our players speculating on what will happen.
 
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EXTRAS said:
Kravtsov staying in Russia for the year?
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He's staying until his team's season is over. From what I read the other day it sounds like they'll bring him over after that--whether he plays some AHL games, is on the taxi squad, or gets into NHL action--still remains to be seen.
 
Our biggest weakness is not even so much the actual left defensemen IMO. It’s the overall lack of defensively responsible forwards. It’s just a big issue and it’s less about the guys not being good and more about them being so young and having to learn. But they need someone to teach them Most offensively gifted kids never play defense until they get to the pros. They just have to learn. I love getting Martin for that reason. Yes he’s coaching the defense but he will be working with Quinn with the boys on structure overall for sure.

honesrly right now panarin Mika and buchy are probably our most reliable guys defensively up front scary.

rooney too. Phil DiGi another plug but that’s why he got Mins last year.
 
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