Trades and Free Agency - 2022 Off-season

[Stephen]

Just to get some reaction

Calgary - Nylander
Toronto - Toffoli, Dube, Zary

New Jersey - Nylander
Toronto - Mercer, Wood, Tatar

I'd be interested in an Elias Lindholm for William Nylander, but not the quantity deal.

 

[andora]

Maybe I'm not understanding your post but if you count Matthews and Nylander in the '31.5 committed to 4 players', you can't also include them in the additional 30 million he said he thinks it would cost to sign the players you listed as Matthews and Nylander would be listed twice each.

The 31.5 is tavares marner reilly and jarnkrok

 

[andora]

Regarding kerfoot

I guess the only way we can ever know is if he gets traded. Personally i am not seeing anything more than a late pick

If he ends up getting traded i would say it is from a position of need which puts us at the disadvantage

I am sure every team is responding right now with "we dont need him, why should i bring him on"

Do we believe dubas has enough stock with his peers that he can find a gma that will make the move laterally not holding us to the fact that we need to move him (only reason to at this point) and should pay a price

 

[Stephen]

Regarding kerfoot

I guess the only way we can ever know is if he gets traded. Personally i am not seeing anything more than a late pick

If he ends up getting traded i would say it is from a position of need which puts us at the disadvantage

I am sure every team is responding right now with "we dont need him, why should i bring him on"

Do we believe dubas has enough stock with his peers that he can find a gma that will make the move laterally not holding us to the fact that we need to move him (only reason to at this point) and should pay a price

I think Kerfoot stays because he's too vanilla of a player to put on the market at this moment to return anything of value, and the market is running lower on viable alternatives. Columbus virtually gave away Bjorkstrand last week.

 

[zeke]

I think Kerfoot stays because he's too vanilla of a player to put on the market at this moment to return anything of value, and the market is running lower on viable alternatives. Columbus virtually gave away Bjorkstrand last week.

Bjorkstrand has a huge long contract.

Kerfoot literally costs any non-cap team league minimum.

 

[Stephen]

Bjorkstrand has a huge long contract.

Kerfoot literally costs any non-cap team league minimum.

Kerfoot's different obviously, but he doesn't seem like an enticing piece teams would be actively pursuing. If something were to happen, it should have happened before the opening of free agency. Now maybe we have another chance after arbitration but I think it's less and less likely.

 

[OVO16]

Kerfoot is also vanilla soft and that plays a factor in his value.

Y'all can bring up production and points all you want but other teams actually value some sort of grit and toughness. Leafs are one of the few teams in the league who don't care about that aspect.

So yes, its gonna be tough to extract proper value for a player who's this small and soft

 

[arso40]

No really.. individually if you want to guess

I guessed matthews at 13.52
Nylander at 9.5
Sandin at 1.6 (after signing 3 years 4.8 total this summer
Liljegren at 4 million (next contract guess

Think that’s too low for matthews

 

[Americanadian]

I mean either the guys we have internally are worth good money or we hit the market to add more good players.

Either way we have so few commitments by 24-25 I can't see how we're in anything but a good position capwise.

For reference in 2024 Aho, Reinhart, Sorokin, Roy are UFA’s.

Bjorkstrand has a huge long contract.

Kerfoot literally costs any non-cap team league minimum.

Bjorkstrand is a steal on his contract, Kerfoot is not.

 

[OVO16]

The problem with the Leafs is that even though they're heavily talented...they still lack players who play with that tenacity and intensity that can push them past the 1st rd. Other teams/management know that.

Johnston literally said something like that in a podcast after the season ended that it's a well-known fact around the league that the Leafs just simply lack tenacious players fit for the playoffs.

Johnston also said that teams are also aware that their Talent/Skill alone could still single handily propel them past the 1st rd...but it's still never gonna be enough to potentially win a cup.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Bjorkstrand is a steal on his contract, Kerfoot is not.

Kerfoot is more of a steal on his contract than Bjorkstrand.

A 60 point offensive winger making 5.5 mill is not a steal, and he hasn't even hit 60 points officially yet. He is making market right now; maybe the low end range of his market.

You wouldn't get Kerfoot for under 4 mill in UFA based on the market this year, and you would probably need to give him extra years to get him at that number. Mikheyev just got 4.75 mill x 4 at the same age as Kerfoot and I don't think Mikheyev is a better player than Kerfoot. If Kerfoot puts up another year like this one, he could easily be north of 5 mill as a UFA next year. Frank Vatrano, who has never been more than a bottom 6er in his career, got 3 x 3.65 mill this year.

 

[zeke]

For reference in 2024 Aho, Reinhart, Sorokin, Roy are UFA’s.

Bjorkstrand is a steal on his contract, Kerfoot is not.

Kerfoot literally gets paid league minimum for any non-cap team, came in at 1.5gsva last year.

Bjorkstrand gets 5x$5.4m in caphit and even more in actual money, and came in at 1.9gsva last year.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

I like Kerfoot, but if you could move him out and convince Stastny and Rodrigues to take cheap 1 year deals that add to the same total, I would be in on that.

Bunts - AM - MM
Stastny - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - Rodrigues - Jarnkrok
Engvall - Kampf - NAK

Or better yet convince them to take 1 million deals, and keep Kerfoot instaed of Robertson in that lineup

 

[Mess]

I really liked the Florida Panthers program last year but from an armchair GM POV I hate what they’ve done since the deadline and into the summer. They made a ton of video game moves, none of it panned out and now they’ve made more video game moves with no cap space and draft picks till the middle of this decade. Don’t think it needs to be framed in a Florida vs Toronto. I just think they blew it. And we stand to gain from their Vegas East approach.

I think they realized that their offense wins thought process was a flawed one and thus hit the reset button .. There 340 GF was just ridiculous though Avg 4.15 goals for per game.

I'm nervous as a Leafs fan of the alignment of Barkov (age 26) and Tkachuk (age 24) locked in for 8 years now for $10 mil and $9.5 mil for $19.5 mil combined and playing the long game here, with now a slowly recovering salary cap as their core 2. Now picture Toronto in 2-3 years when contracts are up and best case scenario Leafs re-sign Matthews ~ @$15 mil and Marner ~ @$12 mil for ~ $27 mil combined as their core 2.

By then goalie Bob comes off the books and Spencer Knight drafted round 1 #13 overall is their future and Florida core players come in significantly less than Leaf new re-signed duo allow the Panthers the cap flexibility to build a deeper team around them.

I think Florida is not playing for next year or 2 although they were the President's trophy best regular season team and were ahead of Toronto in the standings even prior to their video game moves of Claude Giroux and Ben Chariot and could fall to 3rd or 4th in the Div in the short term, but still a playoff team. Sometimes you have a few steps back in order to move forward again.

 

[Knies iT]

The problem with the Leafs is that even though they're heavily talented...they still lack players who play with that tenacity and intensity that can push them past the 1st rd. Other teams/management know that.

Johnston literally said something like that in a podcast after the season ended that it's a well-known fact around the league that the Leafs just simply lack tenacious players fit for the playoffs.

Johnston also said that teams are also aware that their Talent/Skill alone could still single handily propel them past the 1st rd...but it's still never gonna be enough to potentially win a cup.

It's insane to me that this is a disputed point but it'll become crystal clear this season. I'm personally at the point where I hope they go complete skill and finesse up front so people can get what they want and we can test the theory.

 

[Gallagbi]

I think they realized that their offense wins thought process was a flawed one and thus hit the reset button .. There 340 GF was just ridiculous though Avg 4.15 goals for per game.

I'm nervous as a Leafs fan of the alignment of Barkov (age 26) and Tkachuk (age 24) locked in for 8 years now for $10 mil and $9.5 mil for $19.5 mil combined and playing the long game here, with now a slowly recovering salary cap as their core 2. Now picture Toronto in 2-3 years when contracts are up and best case scenario Leafs re-sign Matthews ~ @$15 mil and Marner ~ @$12 mil for ~ $27 mil combined as their core 2.

By then goalie Bob comes off the books and Spencer Knight drafted round 1 #13 overall is their future and Florida core players come in significantly less than Leaf new re-signed duo allow the Panthers the cap flexibility to build a deeper team around them.

I think Florida is not playing for next year or 2 although they were the President's trophy best regular season team and were ahead of Toronto in the standings even prior to their video game moves of Claude Giroux and Ben Chariot and could fall to 3rd or 4th in the Div in the short term, but still a playoff team. Sometimes you have a few steps back in order to move forward again.

Your opinion is that the team who has no first round pick the following 2 years and a $10M Starter is going to "step back" in the hopes they compete 4 years from now when his contract runs out?

 

[Stephen]

I think they realized that their offense wins thought process was a flawed one and thus hit the reset button .. There 340 GF was just ridiculous though Avg 4.15 goals for per game.

I'm nervous as a Leafs fan of the alignment of Barkov (age 26) and Tkachuk (age 24) locked in for 8 years now for $10 mil and $9.5 mil for $19.5 mil combined and playing the long game here, with now a slowly recovering salary cap as their core 2. Now picture Toronto in 2-3 years when contracts are up and best case scenario Leafs re-sign Matthews ~ @$15 mil and Marner ~ @$12 mil for ~ $27 mil combined as their core 2.

By then goalie Bob comes off the books and Spencer Knight drafted round 1 #13 overall is their future and Florida core players come in significantly less than Leaf new re-signed duo allow the Panthers the cap flexibility to build a deeper team around them.

I think Florida is not playing for next year or 2 although they were the President's trophy best regular season team and were ahead of Toronto in the standings even prior to their video game moves of Claude Giroux and Ben Chariot and could fall to 3rd or 4th in the Div in the short term, but still a playoff team. Sometimes you have a few steps back in order to move forward again.

I'm not really that worried about Florida until 2026-27 when Bob's contract ends. By then Barkov is 32 and Tkachuk is 29, and if we are to win things should have happened for Toronto with this core by then.

 

[stickty111]

It's insane to me that this is a disputed point but it'll become crystal clear this season. I'm personally at the point where I hope they go complete skill and finesse up front so people can get what they want and we can test the theory.

Well I mean we went grit up front even overpaid for it and it blew up in our face. May as well try the other theory. In fact a lot of Dubas's bad moves have been ones where he went big and gritty. Simmonds? Clifford? A first round pick for Foligno? Thornton? Ritchie? Lyb?
It's funny the times the 4th line was actually decent was when we had speed and skill on it.

It drives me crazy where even after the grit experiment has failed many times, we still hear we need to add more grit. How about we value ability first and if they come with grit, even better? You know when teams with gritty players actually work? It's when those players can actually play. I can guarantee you it's not because they have unplayable guys like Clifford or Simmonds in the lineup. Dubas's downfall that might lead to his firing is because he went too far towards the grit side. I have wondered if Dubas had a do over, and built the team he wanted that would he have done these moves? It felt he listened to the media too much and maybe some fans as well? Not directed at anyone just a general statement.
I remember after the loss against Montreal, CJ mentioned that if you get some truth serum of Dubas, he would say he wish he went more after Hall. That makes you wonder if Foligno was even his call.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Is there any team out there currently with the depth need and the financial ability to trade for a nylander

Team should be relatively competitive too

What does "with the financial ability" mean? You want to trade his entire salary and take zero cap / no one way contracts back? Or you want to trade Nylander and take some cap back but definitely less than you're sending out?

How about:

Kerfoot and Holl
for
Okposo 50% retention?

Nylander-Tavares-Okposo

Buffalo have a lot of cap this year (but less next year) and apparently the fans love how Okposo is as a mentor and don't want to trade him. They're very happy to keep him until next summer and under no cap pressure to move him.

 

[notDatsyuk]

No, I haven't played for the Leafs, which is exactly why I wouldn't make comments about what a fish bowl experience or tough it is to be a Leaf player relative to another market or team. Connor obviously has insight as a hockey player, but to deliver as a Leaf in this market? Not for him to say how easy or tough it is.

Players succeed and fail in other markets too. It's hardly a Toronto problem if we look at career ups and downs.

But you yourself said "Toronto definitely seems to be hard on some players". Everyone comments on how hard it is, some with more relevance than others.

I wouldn't be any more critical of him saying it than I am of you - not at all.

 

[Mess]

I'm not really that worried about Florida until 2026-27 when Bob's contract ends. By then Barkov is 32 and Tkachuk is 29, and if we are to win things should have happened for Toronto with this core by then.

I'm hoping Matt Murray has a Bobrovsky like year like he just had.

54 games 39 wins 7 losses 3 OTL 4 SO with a GAA 2.67 and SV% 0.913 and 4th in Goals Saved above Expected at 23.4

If he does it would be a huge bounce back year posting stats similar to 2016 and Leafs would be sitting pretty.

PS. No Leafs goalie in team history has ever won 39 games in a single season.

 

[Knies iT]

Well I mean we went grit up front even overpaid for it and it blew up in our face. May as well try the other theory. In fact a lot of Dubas's bad moves have been ones where he went big and gritty. Simmonds? Clifford? A first round pick for Foligno? Thornton? Ritchie? Lyb?
It's funny the times the 4th line was actually decent was when we had speed and skill on it.

It drives me crazy where even after the grit experiment has failed many times, we still hear we need to add more grit. How about we value ability first and if they come with grit, even better? You know when teams with gritty players actually work? It's when those players can actually play. I can guarantee you it's not because they have unplayable guys like Clifford or Simmonds in the lineup. Dubas's downfall that might lead to his firing is because he went too far towards the grit side. I have wondered if Dubas had a do over, and built the team he wanted that would he have done these moves? It felt he listened to the media too much and maybe some fans as well? Not directed at anyone just a general statement.
I remember after the loss against Montreal, CJ mentioned that if you get some truth serum of Dubas, he would say he wish he went more after Hall. That makes you wonder if Foligno was even his call.

I'll leave it at this because I keep reiterating this point but you're outlining the exact problem. Declining 4th liners or 3rd pair at best players is not an "experiment" it's putting lipstick on a pig. It's like having a low-scoring team and saying experiment with a skill approach and sign Yandle, Petan, Butcher, etc. Sub <10min/game garbage that won't move the needle in any direction. Are the Blues doing a skill experiment because they have Kostin/Walker/Perunovich on their 4th line/7th D?

We're talking at the very least 3rd liners with those attributes for it to be worthwhile. The pieces that fit that bill are some of the more important secondary players on the team (Bunting, Muzzin, etc.).

 

[andora]

What does "with the financial ability" mean? You want to trade his entire salary and take zero cap / no one way contracts back? Or you want to trade Nylander and take some cap back but definitely less than you're sending out?

Even money or so trade
Financial ability to re sign him with impending raise due to having the flexibility 2 seasons from now

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Even money or so trade
Financial ability to re sign him with impending raise due to having the flexibility 2 seasons from now

Calgary has A LOT of their roster not signed or RFA beyond 2024...

Mangiapane - XXX - Coronato
Pelletier - XXX - Coleman
Dubé - Rönni - XXX
Zary - Ruzicka - Schwindt

So trading for Nylander in some sort of deal for Huberdeau actually makes sense for Calgary financially long-term. If they're going all in for a cup then they won't do it, also I don't see why Leafs want to do it as it screws us next summer where we have to destroy our cap or let Huberdeau walk.

 

[MAB1]

Kerfoot's different obviously, but he doesn't seem like an enticing piece teams would be actively pursuing. If something were to happen, it should have happened before the opening of free agency. Now maybe we have another chance after arbitration but I think it's less and less likely.

Why? If anything it would be the opposite, teams would look to sign players in FA first before having to trade prospects/picks AND take on salary.