Walsh knows that Hronek has all the leverage - he can take the team to arbitration, get a one year payday because of Hronek’s points and minutes, then have Hronek hit the market as the best UFA defender perhaps since Dougie Hamilton and under a rising cap. I’d be shocked if he got less than $8 million per year on the open market, and he would probably get much more.
The team would have known that would be the case when they traded two premium assets for him. They must have felt comfortable with signing him long term at market rates. I can’t see them taking the risk of a one year deal that let’s him walk at the end, or changing their views on him as a player based on ~40 games when he was likely hurt, particularly since they want to contend and he will be basically impossible to replace with the assets the team currently has.
Given that, my guess would be the team grinds him as much as they can over the next month then signs him before QOs go out.
In theory they could trade him then use the assets they acquire to get someone else, but his value will be much less than it was a year ago if a team has to sign him to a UFA deal. That’s return is unlikely to get you a cost controlled player, and adding someone like Lekkerimaki or Willander to make it work is one step forward one step back.
Fully agreed. Like many others here, I was frustrated with his play in the second half, but that first half of the season sealed his market value - all it takes is one person next off-season to think he can play like that all the time to put his contract through the roof.
The math here is pretty simple. The Canucks need a top pairing dman, along with at least one more top 4 guy who can transition the puck well, to reach contending status. They also need help up front for Petey, along with filling out their bottom 6.
If you don't sign Hronek, you're going to have to allocate the limited assets remaining for that top pairing player, or overpay to sign one for closer to 9-10 million in free agency, who will be older and much more likely to go into decline in the near future. That takes away from your forward depth or your asset pool to find Petey a winger.
Being one year away from UFA also limits his trade value. If you could get an absolute haul for him then maybe the conversation changes, but that also suggests that there's a small number of dmen available (thus the haul), which puts us back at square one of looking for a top pairing player.
Others could argue he's not a top pairing guy and is more like the player in the second half of the season. This is fair - my counterpoint would be I don't think there's a path to contention in the next 2-3 years if that's the case without an outrageous number of things going our way. The cost to replace is way too high.
The path to getting to a contender level is going to involve some calculated risks, and banking on Hronek rebounding to somewhere between his 1st and 2nd half form is one of them.