Rumor: Juuse Saros Signs 8 Year / $7.74 AAV Contract

[Porter Stoutheart]

Got it - only way I could see that in theory is if the wheels REALLY fell off and it came down to "retire or we're waiving you and sending you to Milwaukee" but wow I hope it doesn't come to that. The LTIRetire piece is a nice protection if needed.

Yeah, most players would just take the bus rides if it meant collecting $30M.

But hey, maybe we gave him a NMC so that it could never come to that either. I'm starting to calm down from my panic about the 8-year term a little bit... but I will go right back to hyperventilating if it comes out there is an NMC in the deal!

 

[David Singleton]

I fully expect it to have a NMC to protect Saros from a potential expansion draft in particular. He's taking a discount on the AAV, and I expect that to be the limit of his concessions.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

I fully expect it to have a NMC to protect Saros from a potential expansion draft in particular. He's taking a discount on the AAV, and I expect that to be the limit of his concessions.

For simplicity's sake, I view this as 10M salary for the first four years and 5M for the last four years. That doesn't feel like a compromise on AAV to me, at all, it feels very fair. Not to mention tax laws meaning a far higher take home pay here than you'd see in other markets.

 

[originalpredfan]

I can only hope there is not a NMC and Trotz is doing Saro's a favor by setting him up with a long term deal as a trade sweetener for another team to fulfill. That way he can let Saro's go when Askarov is ready.

To expand on my previous post, what if Trotz actually has averted a NMC and intends to play the final year of Saros current contract out to see if Askarov under Mitch Korn's tutelage is ready to take over. Then he can either trade Saros or keep him. Having Saros under long term contract should make him an appealing trade target as future teams would not have to negotiate with him.

 

[Enoch]

Um, the Saros contract is cheaper than what everyone should have expected. It is a UFA contract. You overpay in dollars, years, and movement clauses. Preds aren't coming out poorly here. Don't overreact.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

To expand on my previous post, what if Trotz actually has averted a NMC and intends to play the final year of Saros current contract out to see if Askarov under Mitch Korn's tutelage is ready to take over. Then he can either trade Saros or keep him. Having Saros under long term contract should make him an appealing trade target as future teams would not have to negotiate with him.

I'm not sure a goalie under a prime contract until he's 38 will be an appealing trade target? But it will come down to how well Saros plays. If he gets back on the Vezina leaderboard (well, legitimately - not via whatever got him votes this season), then some team might throw caution to the wind on those extra years and be ready to trade for him. But if he plays THAT well... we're not going to trade him. Catch-22.

 

[Armourboy]

Um, the Saros contract is cheaper than what everyone should have expected. It is a UFA contract. You overpay in dollars, years, and movement clauses. Preds aren't coming out poorly here. Don't overreact.

Saros gave up nothing on the deal if it has a NMC and takes a dumb contract to stupid land.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Um, the Saros contract is cheaper than what everyone should have expected. It is a UFA contract. You overpay in dollars, years, and movement clauses. Preds aren't coming out poorly here. Don't overreact.

It's a great contract at the wrong time. That's what people are annoyed by I think.

 

[Armourboy]

It's a great contract at the wrong time. That's what people are annoyed by I think.

Yep. If we drafted Askarov this season it would be a different ball of wax, but we didn't, that was several years ago now

 

[Enoch]

I don't disagree about that aspect at all. Then again, I never would have spent the continued draft capital on first and second round goalies that Poile did.

 

[Scoresberg]

Let's look at the names Saros is now up against:

Bob

1x Cup
2x Finals
2x Vezina
PO Record: 45-43

Vasilevski

2x Cup
3x Finals
1x Vezina
PO Record: 66-46

Helle

2x Vezina
3x Playoff Series Wins
PO Record: 18-27

Sorokin

1x Vezina Finalist
PO Record: 6-6

Saros

1x Vezina Finalist
PO Record: 5-11

 

[hido]

Until we know about NMC/NTC this is all kind of moot, isn't it?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Let's look at the names Saros is now up against:

Bob

1x Cup
2x Finals
2x Vezina
PO Record: 45-43

Vasilevski

2x Cup
3x Finals
1x Vezina
PO Record: 66-46

Helle

2x Vezina
3x Playoff Series Wins
PO Record: 18-27

Sorokin

1x Vezina Finalist
PO Record: 6-6

Saros

1x Vezina Finalist
PO Record: 5-11

I mean, Saros is a distant 5th place on that list already. Shesterkin is above him too and his next contract will reflect that. I do think Saros is in a "next tier down" from those top guys. He was a 3rd place Vezina finish ONCE in his career, and hasn't won a playoff round. $7.74M is probably "fair"-ish for him, although I think we could have got him at $6.74M and that number wouldn't have been "unfair" either. It's really just the 8 years that is crazy, relative to his age.

Well, pending NTC/NMC info anyway. That could take "crazy" into "unconscionably insane".

 

[wmupreds]

I predict he will have an NMC.

 

[Preds Partisan]

Until we know about NMC/NTC this is all kind of moot, isn't it?

Yeah, I get why people are saying wait until we know. But lack of NMV/NTC just means you CAN move him. I'm still not seeing a scenario in which very many teams will be wanting that contract in the future.

If he's good enough that teams want him at a fair deal, we probably aren't moving him anyway. If he craters, no one else will want him either. As I said, not really seeing a scenario in which this contract can realistically be moved, especially for anything of value.

 

[predhead1]

There is another scenario where both Saros and Askarov are performing at an exceptional level and we're able to trade Saros for value because we have Askarov as a ready replacement. But I'm not holding my breath that this is the scenario which comes to pass.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Not a fan of the Saros extension at all. Zero. I won’t make you all read too much doom and gloom from me.

I will say…. Reaching at 22 for a Russian and signing an undersized goalie till he is 40…..

“hello, mushy middle” - NoNecks(Curse)

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yeah, I get why people are saying wait until we know. But lack of NMV/NTC just means you CAN move him. I'm still not seeing a scenario in which very many teams will be wanting that contract in the future.

If he's good enough that teams want him at a fair deal, we probably aren't moving him anyway. If he craters, no one else will want him either. As I said, not really seeing a scenario in which this contract can realistically be moved, especially for anything of value.

I agree wholeheartedly on the tradeability side of things with that contract.

But the key with the NMC is that - unless they change the rules - teams are forced to protect NMC players in Expansion Drafts. So it's that angle of the NMC that would worry us most about Saros, not the tradeability. Because if he has the NMC, we MUST protect him whenever it is that Kansas City or Houston or wherever joins the league. And we only get to protect 1 goalie, sooooooo...

 

[glenngineer]

All I'm gonna say is I predicted an 8 x 8 and I wasn't far off. I didn't want the deal but we're stuck with it. Oh well.

 

[token grinder]

One way to look at this is---Would you rather have Shesterkin at 12-13 million and pray an ELC can eat up spots or Saros at 7.75 with 5 million to spend on your middle six/2nd pair?

 

[Armourboy]

One way to look at this is---Would you rather have Shesterkin at 12-13 million and pray an ELC can eat up spots or Saros at 7.75 with 5 million to spend on your middle six/2nd pair?

Neither is my answer. Nothing forced or will force either GM to sign those contracts.

 

[glenngineer]

Having given this some thought, I'm still not happy with the choice to re-sign Saros for this type of deal, however, lots of ways this can play out.

I won't go in to all of them, only the couple that I'd hope for at the very least.

As some have said, Saros is your starter for the next 4-5 years, Askarov in Milwaukee this year and then moving up to backup Saros and eventually taking the full-time starting role down the line.

Another option is similar but make it open competition in a year or two and see if Askarov can displace Saros as the starter. If he can, move Saros to a team who needs a goalie, find a back up and you move on to the next phase of development.

Both of these are dependent upon Askarov taking the next steps in his development and Saros not dropping off the cliff or either one suffering a bad injury.

We're better in the long run to have them both in the system so if one does falter, you have the other to fall back on.

 

[Soundgarden]

Shesterkin apparently wants 12.9? 7.74 is a robbery if that's the case. I know everybody's concern is contract length, but it could always be worse.

 

[Armourboy]

Shesterkin apparently wants 12.9? 7.74 is a robbery if that's the case. I know everybody's concern is contract length, but it could always be worse.

Just because someone else asks for a worse deal doesn't make this one better. It's still bad especially if it ends up having a NMC tucked in it.

 

[Scoresberg]

There's absolutely no way Shesterhkin is going to get 12.9 mil.