Trade Ideas

[Mister Ed]

Some movement (?) on the DeBrincat front :

 

[Frk It]

Some movement (?) on the DeBrincat front :

Wonder if they would want to keep him at 7.65 or do a sign and trade if they win the arbitration?

 

[Henkka]

That's quite nice "pissing the player off" -move.

But it will put his real value more right.

I think the most proable trade is at next deadline.

A) trade at next deadline to contender for under 4M caphit 50% retention.
B) trade at draft

Everything will point out that he is gonna be traded for a bargain deal. Kind of toxic situation developing, and then the values always go down.

 

[Henkka]

The Athletic has written an article about a possible Erik Karlsson trade. There was 6 possible destinations, and Red Wings as one of them.

In a nuthell, EDM, DAL, CAR, FLO were the potential contenders where Karlsson could go. All have cap problems, so trade in contender is a very tough fit.

For two rising teams, the mentioned options were OTT and DET. Ottawa didn't sound very probable destination, because they just acquired Chychryn and have Chabot.

Imo, Detroit with all the cap space, could be most probable team to this swing.

Short takes from the article (behind paywall)

When the Red Wings surprised with the Filip Hronek trade last deadline, it seemed like Detroit was poised to swing another deal to bring back a defenseman to fill an opening on the right side of the blue line. Since it didn’t, it likely punts this task to the offseason, where management could try to add someone via free agency or trade.

Free agency would allow Detroit to only spend cap space to acquire a player and save its assets for another deal. But the skill level of the players available doesn’t compare to Karlsson — a player who could have a game-changing impact on the Red Wings’ offensive creation. Plus, the team has more than enough assets to upgrade both its forward core and defense via trade.

Along with prospects, Detroit has one pick in every round over the next three years, plus two firsts in 2023 and 2024 and two extra seconds this year. Even though the Red Wings have cap space to actually take on Karlsson, they can afford to have San Jose retain salary to maintain flexibility.

Fit-wise, Karlsson’s term could block the path of Detroit’s prospect pipeline. But four years may be less than what some bigger-name free agents ask for. He’d obviously take some power-play time away from Moritz Seider, but that could allow Detroit to bulk up his five-on-five and penalty-killing time and use him a bit more sparingly on the second unit.

Man I would love this move, if Chiarot would be the roster player on another direction. Any young D outside of Seider, Edvinsson, Wallinder could be inserted gong to Sharks, like Johansson. Take Buium, any you want.

Walman - Seider
Määttä - Karlsson
Edvinsson - UFA Rhd like Mayfield.
(Wallinder)

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Some movement (?) on the DeBrincat front :

I don't get the assumption that OTT is going to save 15%. Debrincat had 9M last year as base, arbitration can award AT LEAST 85% of his prior, so that's the assumption that he'll be given the minimum? He's in a pretty small group of scorers in terms of goals and statistics here - Robertson, Rantanen, Kaprizov (all sub 28 year old goal scoring wingers) - These guys are all 8-9.5M each...I guess they think they will peg him down to Kris Kreider?

 

[jkutswings]

The Athletic has written an article about a possible Erik Karlsson trade. There was 6 possible destinations, and Red Wings as one of them.

In a nuthell, EDM, DAL, CAR, FLO were the potential contenders where Karlsson could go. All have cap problems, so trade in contender is a very tough fit.

For two rising teams, the mentioned options were OTT and DET. Ottawa didn't sound very probable destination, because they just acquired Chychryn and have Chabot.

Imo, Detroit with all the cap space, could be most probable team to this swing.

Short takes from the article (behind paywall)






Man I would love this move, if Chiarot would be the roster player on another direction. Any young D outside of Seider, Edvinsson, Wallinder could be inserted gong to Sharks, like Johansson. Take Buium, any you want.

Walman - Seider
Määttä - Karlsson
Edvinsson - UFA Rhd like Mayfield.
(Wallinder)

I would sooner keep Chiarot than deal additional assets for Karlsson. People need to stop the infatuation with a defenseman who is allergic to defense. Even if I could somehow GUARANTEE that he scored a boatload of points on this roster, it simply is not the style of team that Yzerman is trying to build. Every move he's made points to a goal of being a migraine for opposing playoff teams at both ends of the ice, and that isn't EK whatsoever.

Hard pass. Go get Lindholm and a decent scoring winger, and leave Karlsson alone.

EDIT: I normally do not favor trying to take any major lessons out of a single playoff season due to small sample size. But if there's one applicable idea for this year, it's the power of getting an entire roster to buy into puck pursuit at both ends of the ice. Both Vegas and Florida hounded their opponents to death with team speed and forechecking. I'm all in for that and it seems that Yzerman is as well...so why on Earth would he cough up significant assets to get a guy who is the complete opposite of running through a wall to win?

 

[Henkka]

I don't get the assumption that OTT is going to save 15%. Debrincat had 9M last year as base, arbitration can award AT LEAST 85% of his prior, so that's the assumption that he'll be given the minimum? He's in a pretty small group of scorers in terms of goals and statistics here - Robertson, Rantanen, Kaprizov (all sub 28 year old goal scoring wingers) - These guys are all 8-9.5M each...I guess they think they will peg him down to Kris Kreider?

Imo, his nearest comparables from same draft class are:

Kyrou, did get 8.125M, (8 years)
Keller, is getting 7.15M (4 years left)
Laine, is getting 7M
Dubois, getting 6M (1 year left)
Bratt, RFA, was getting 5.45M

Didn't count Bratt at all, but the average from those three guys is at +7M side.

DeBrincat is no where close to Robertson or Rantanen, not even near. For last 2 seasons, DeBrincat has been 0.88 points per game scorer. Rantanen scores 1.25 points per game and Robertson at 1.21 ppg.

 

[Henkka]

I would sooner keep Chiarot than deal additional assets for Karlsson. People need to stop the infatuation with a defenseman who is allergic to defense. Even if I could somehow GUARANTEE that he scored a boatload of points on this roster, it simply is not the style of team that Yzerman is trying to build. Every move he's made points to a goal of being a migraine for opposing playoff teams at both ends of the ice, and that isn't EK whatsoever.

Hard pass. Go get Lindholm and a decent scoring winger, and leave Karlsson alone.

I kind of agree with you 100%, this is how the Yzerman-build is looking for.

But we once went through that Paul Coffey -era, maybe it will happen again? The winning success came after he was gone, but he helped a lot on the raise on the top. Two President Trophies. Maybe you need that kind of game-breaker, and evolution of the roster, before the kid core is ready? I could see the path with modern Red Wings too. I don't think it's totally count out.

 

[norrisnick]

I kind of agree with you 100%, this is how the Yzerman-build is looking for.

But we once went through that Paul Coffey -era, maybe it will happen again? The winning success came after he was gone, but he helped a lot on the raise on the top. Two President Trophies. Maybe you need that kind of game-breaker, and evolution of the roster, before the kid core is ready? I could see the path with modern Red Wings too. I don't think it's totally count out.

Pretty sure that's the first suggestion to try and replicate the pre-Cup 90s Wings....

 

[Henkka]

 

[Detroit Knights]

I don't get the assumption that OTT is going to save 15%. Debrincat had 9M last year as base, arbitration can award AT LEAST 85% of his prior, so that's the assumption that he'll be given the minimum? He's in a pretty small group of scorers in terms of goals and statistics here - Robertson, Rantanen, Kaprizov (all sub 28 year old goal scoring wingers) - These guys are all 8-9.5M each...I guess they think they will peg him down to Kris Kreider?

I think it is just a move to delay the trade. If debrincat wins and still is awarded the 9, then the amount ott can get back in return would be less than if debrincat loses and gets awarded closer to 8.

Just think OTT is trying to lower his cap hit requirement for QO. If that is the case, then deductive reasoning would say that OTT tried trading him and other teams wanted to talk to him first to see if he would do an extension or even want to come to their team. OTT then probably said no, you can't talk to him until after the trade goes through. Then a lot or all possible trade partners said that the 9 mil QO is a problem then and won't trade a lot of assets for him. So, in turn, OTT tries to lower his QO in order to get more in return.

 

[Hoog]

So, I saw an article on Hockey Writers that Boston doesn't want to move Brandon Carlo but may do it for cap relief and picks. Soooo, hiw about Stevie comes in with the following offer.

Pick #17 and AlJo (maybe a future pick) for Carlo, Fabian Lysell, Dans Locmelis, and Taylor Hall.

This gives Boston a first rounder in a pretty good draft year, cap relief from both Carlo and Hall, which allows them to sign Bert and Orlov probably.

We get the perfect RHD for Edvinson who is signed resonably for 4 years and two pretty good offensive prospects. We also get Hall, who will help but is way overpaid at 2 more years at $6M per.

I think its a win win for both.

Other option is Carlo, Lysell, and Mike Reilly's $3M cap hit for Kubalik, Zadina, and 2 second rounders.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Imo, his nearest comparables from same draft class are:

Kyrou, did get 8.125M, (8 years)
Keller, is getting 7.15M (4 years left)
Laine, is getting 7M
Dubois, getting 6M (1 year left)
Bratt, RFA, was getting 5.45M

Didn't count Bratt at all, but the average from those three guys is at +7M side.

DeBrincat is no where close to Robertson or Rantanen, not even near. For last 2 seasons, DeBrincat has been 0.88 points per game scorer. Rantanen scores 1.25 points per game and Robertson at 1.21 ppg.

View attachment 718191

Very interesting. You can only go by comps, especially in a arbitration situation, but do they consider that a player like Keller got his contract a few years ago and go by how much of the cap he takes up at that specific time?

At that time, salary cap was 81.5 mil and keller is at 7.15. So that is roughly 11.4% of the cap. So do you put Debrincat as 11.4% of the cap for this coming year that is going to be at 83.5? Because if that is the case, then he would be at 9.5 mil AAV. That wouldn't be great...lol

EDIT: I know, my math is just so bad here. Look away!

 

[Detroit Knights]

So, I saw an article on Hockey Writers that Boston doesn't want to move Brandon Carlo but may do it for cap relief and picks. Soooo, hiw about Stevie comes in with the following offer.

Pick #17 and AlJo (maybe a future pick) for Carlo, Fabian Lysell, Dans Locmelis, and Taylor Hall.

This gives Boston a first rounder in a pretty good draft year, cap relief from both Carlo and Hall, which allows them to sign Bert and Orlov probably.

We get the perfect RHD for Edvinson who is signed resonably for 4 years and two pretty good offensive prospects. We also get Hall, who will help but is way overpaid at 2 more years at $6M per.

I think its a win win for both.

Other option is Carlo, Lysell, and Mike Reilly's $3M cap hit for Kubalik, Zadina, and 2 second rounders.

Don't like your second one at all, Kubalik is very good if used properly on the powerplay and first/2nd line. I say give him until trade deadline to get in Lalonde's fervor and trade him at that point if still nothing.

The first one is iffy. I don't see how that would be a good comparable trade getting hall and carlo, especially since both of them love being with the bruins. Going to be tough. I think boston isn't going to pursue orlov or bertuzzi if their rumored AAV is accurate.

 

[Henkka]

Very interesting. You can only go by comps, especially in a arbitration situation, but do they consider that a player like Keller got his contract a few years ago and go by how much of the cap he takes up at that specific time?

At that time, salary cap was 81.5 mil and keller is at 7.15. So that is roughly 11.4% of the cap. So do you put Debrincat as 11.4% of the cap for this coming year that is going to be at 83.5? Because if that is the case, then he would be at 9.5 mil AAV. That wouldn't be great...lol

Think your math wasn't quite right. Keller deal was made for 2019-20 season, against 81.5M cap and that 2M difference for next season cap is only 2,5%.

So 7.15M Keller deal against next season cap is 7.32M comparable value. It's there, on the ballpark, where this arbitration thing is going.

Still think DeBrincat will be overpaid as 7.65M. Seeing another season at Ottawa or elsewhere without Patrick Kane, will probably get the truth of his goal-scoring. If he goes another season under 30 goals, he's that level of guy, or if he will rebound to 40-goal season without any great playmaker feeding him (he has Giroux and Stutzle at Ottawa), then he is gonna break the bank like Jeff Skinner.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Think your math wasn't quite right. Keller deal was made for 2019-20 season, against 81.5M cap and that 2M difference for next season cap is only 2,5%.

So 7.15M Keller deal against next season cap is 7.32M comparable value. It's there, on the ballpark, where this arbitration thing is going.

Still think DeBrincat will be overpaid as 7.65M. Seeing another season at Ottawa or elsewhere without Patrick Kane, will probably get the truth of his goal-scoring. If he goes another season under 30 goals, he's that level of guy, or if he will rebound to 40-goal season without any great playmaker feeding him (he has Giroux and Stutzle at Ottawa), then he is gonna break the bank like Jeff Skinner.

capfriendly says 2020-2021. You are correct, I divided the wrong way lmao.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Also, he didn't play with Kane for his entire chicago career or even most of it. He played with many others first.

 

[heyfolks]

View attachment 718234

I don't see this as surprising news.
He was aggressive last off season.

 

[heyfolks]

To Ducks: Raymond, #9 and #17
To Detroit: #2

Adam Fantilli

If Ducks go another way:

To BJs: #9 & #17
To Detroit: #3 pick

Adam Fantilli

 

[Henkka]

I don't see this as surprising news.
He was aggressive last off season.

Some people in here believe, that we are gonna take some full back to tank because of Bertuzzi and Hronek trades.

I don't think that at all. Yzerman wanted to get some extra assets and those players were not needed long-term and offers were just the best offers to sell.

He is gonna replace both from free agency, without losing any assets (only cap space) and also signing extra, imo.

This is the Yzerman asset-circle he has been repeating his all GM career.

1. At trade deadline - SELL and acquire assets and draft capital
2. Draft well
3. At summer - SIGN free UFAs, which will cost only money (and you can sell them at later years of the contract)
4. During the season, promote some drafted kids on the opening slots.
5. ---> back to 1.

Repeat, repeat, repeat.

There's no era to go down anymore. We will build up, and the kids will join from the fly.

 

[Detroit Knights]

To Ducks: Raymond, #9 and #17
To Detroit: #2

Adam Fantilli

If Ducks go another way:

To BJs: #9 & #17
To Detroit: #3 pick

Adam Fantilli

Highly doubt 9 and 17 moves you to #3...

If it did, I would think red wings would get carlsson (even though I'd probably rather have Fanitilli but Carlsson is supposed to be amazing too) because in some swedish interview I think, Hakan said if Carlsson is available they are taking him no questions asked.

Also, not sure I would be overly upset about raymond traded for fantilli, but you better believe that fantilli is the franchise because raymond/9/17 is a hell of a lot to get rid of. (i'd probably try to see if we could trade a combination of berggren/aljo/wallinder/or other forwards to give more quantity and quality that possible superstar quality)

 

[ZDH]

It would take literally every single draft pick we have in this draft to move from 9 to 3.

 

[jkutswings]

View attachment 718234

Been saying this for awhile. It's happening.

And may Detroit get twice the value in return for what they pay.

 

[saska sault]

Reports Detroit is going to be aggressive... So knowing Yzerman and Co... They will go status quo and draft and develop. I don't believe much when it comes to rumours, of the 5 or 6 guys we have been rumoured with we may get one and that's from blind luck reporting. If Yzerman is aggressive I have a feeling its a move no one sees coming.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Reports Detroit is going to be aggressive... So knowing Yzerman and Co... They will go status quo and draft and develop. I don't believe much when it comes to rumours, of the 5 or 6 guys we have been rumoured with we may get one and that's from blind luck reporting. If Yzerman is aggressive I have a feeling its a move no one sees coming.

As much fun as it is to rumor monger and hope for some action, the chances we're aggressive are slim.

SY is tight lipped we all know that.

At best we move a pick for the forward equivalent to Husso and just draft, draft, draft

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Aside from the last 10-20 posts, people do realize that Lindholm has one year left, right?