GDT: Trade deadline 2025

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DackellDuck

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Sep 20, 2024
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We're now 3 games away from the trade deadline.

The vitals:
• We're currently pacing for 88pts
• We're 2pts back of Columbus for WC2, but the NYR have moved ahead of us. Boston is behind us but also at 62pts
• We're in the midst of a 5 game losing streak
• We're riddled with injuries and who knows when any of Norris, Pinto or Tkachuk will be back

The intrigue:
• Keith Tkachuk said on a podcast last week that he "expects the Senators to get their players help" and "he expects them to be a playoff team".

The question:
• Do we do anything?

My perspective:
You either have to take a big(ger) swing or do nothing. What's Brandon Tanev going to do for this team? I personally would see what you can get for Batherson. He has the type of contract that you might be able to move in a "hockey trade".
 
Not only do we have to forfeit a 1st, we don’t have our 2nd next year. We are probably not gonna want to send out anything more than a 3rd and rightly so. Whatever we do I don’t think will have a big impact. Probably a depth forward.

Someone can send Keith Tkachuk a link to Puckpedia where he can check our cap space. The core doesn’t need to be babied, the 7 of them can carry this team to the playoffs or they can sink. It is what it is.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if they literally do nothing. The cap is a mess and they are asset poor - those are facts. Not sure it really makes sense to add and they have essentially nothing to sell.

Keith Tkachuk should keep his nose out of the Sens business. I get that he probably feels like his boy is wasting his career here - and perhaps he's not wrong about that - but Staios has to keep a longer-term perspective.

Out there thought - Should Staios be listening on Giroux? It's shaping up to be a seller's market and even at his age he'd be a desirable piece for a contender. What could we get here? Obviously this sends a bad sign to the Tkachuk clan, but you can kinda feel that relationship beginning to run its course anyway, so...
 
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I wouldn't be surprised if they literally do nothing. The cap is a mess and they are asset poor - those are facts. Not sure it really makes sense to add and they have essentially nothing to sell.

Keith Tkachuk should keep his nose out of the Sens business. I get that he probably feels like his boy is wasting his career here - and perhaps he's not wrong about that - but Staios has to keep a longer-term perspective.

Out there thought - Should Staios be listening on Giroux? It's shaping up to be a seller's market and even at his age he'd be a desirable piece for a contender. What could we get here? Obviously this sends a bad sign to the Tkachuk clan, but you can kinda feel that relationship beginning to run its course anyway, so...

Giroux has a NMC and could pick his spot, and with that, you're not getting much if any value back.
Considering his family situation, it'd probably be east coast or nothing: so FLA or TB.

You'd get maybe a 4th round pick, so what's the point.
 
My guess is Staios will stand pat. We desperately need top 6 talent, we only have 3 legitimate players that fit that mold right now, and one of them is very inconsistent and lacks any other qualities to his game when he's not producing offensively. Norris is borderline for me at this point and we can't even really rely on him playing. Pinto and Greig are 3rd liners. Giroux and Perron are washed up, they're both depth pieces at this stage of their career. This is more of an off season issue to address than TDL, especially when we're on the outside looking in, so I don't really see any meaningful moves happening before July.
 
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This is as good as it gets with this group apparently. So might as well make some bold moves, get the guys off this team who still think they are playing junior hockey. Brady's value will never be higher than it is right now, this team isn't doing anything. Basically almost worse case scenario having next to nothing in the cupboards and questionable depth.
 
Do not add anyone! There is no one player that can change the outcome considerably. If we get Pinto, Norris and Tkachuk back in time and if everyone remains healthy and if Ullmark plays better and if we go on a nice winning streak then we will make the playoffs.

That's a lot of ifs. No need to mortgage the future anymore.
 
Giroux has a NMC and could pick his spot, and with that, you're not getting much if any value back.
Considering his family situation, it'd probably be east coast or nothing: so FLA or TB.

You'd get maybe a 4th round pick, so what's the point.
Giroux had a NMC and picked his spot when the Flyers moved him and they still got Owen Tippett, a 1st and a 3rd for him. He's older now, but should still be valuable.

Then again, maybe you're right. Seems to be a long-standing tradition of the Senators not being able to get value for their trade assets. St. Louis trades Tarasenko and they get a 1st, 4th and Sammy Blais. A year later we trade him and get a 3rd and 4th. Has a full NTC and chose his destination both times. Couldn't get shit for Mark Stone. The Erik Karlsson deal might be the only counterexample to this.
 
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Said it multiple times before
Good individual players
Not a good fit
We are not going from this to SC contender in the next couple of years when Carolina, NYR, EDM,Dallas have been trying for YEARS and have been WAY better for YEARS
Poorly constructed by the ultimate clown of GMs
Time to start over with Jake and Stu ; and Brady if he wants to
 
Sell whatever spare parts you can to get some picks back in the cupboards.

If they never had this streak, maybe you are a small buyer for 3rds and 4ths.

Not sure what they will do. No chance they are going to throw in the towel, nor should they, but making any moves where it depletes the already barren cupboards doesn’t leave a good feeling.

Unless you’re getting someone with term, not sure I see much point in buying this deadline.

The state this team was left in by Dorion is criminal. Barren cupboards, both picks and prospects, and a future 1st gone down the toilet because Dorion was feelin’ it on the trade call
 
As others have said, i don’t see us doing anything. At most we get a cheap depth forward. Had we not gone on this 5 game losing skid, things probably would’ve been a bit different but this is where we are at now. Sink or swim.

The heavy lifting should happen in the offseason.
 
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Stay the course.

We don't have assets and unless one of our 3rd gets us a player of value, we have no business buying anything.

No more pissing away 1st or 2nds for any short fixes, especially with the lack of draft capital we have
we have assets

make moves to improve the team. I would be calling up Buffalo and see if they are interested in Norris or Bath
 
I went to the game tonight, not to enjoy the action on the ice, but to sniff around for clues. #bootsontheground.

Interesting note from the 100 level team store.

They have two racks that are prime real estate for jerseys they want to sell more than others. These are two 6 foot clothing racks that are right by the entrance. They are at customer height. So from a marketing POV, if someone walks into the store and is going to impulse buy a jersey, they are a lot more likely to grab something from that rack than they are to get an associate to reach the Ullmark jersey on the wall.

I notice that they always put Adidas jerseys on here, because at certain points during the season they haven't been on sale. I assume the logic being, your average person won't know it's outdated since it's the same thing, and will be more likely to grab an Adidas jersey.

Today, both racks were filled with Norris jerseys. I think they were all Adidas. I don't think it was a case where Norris was their only Adidas player left.

If this was Stutzle or even Tkachuk, I wouldn't bat an eye. But Norris isn't exactly our most popular player. So it is interesting to see them deliberately market his jersey in a way that would increase the likelihood that they sell them now. As if they somehow have a reason to believe, come March 4th, those jerseys will be worth a lot less...

As far as the March 4th date, they instituted an automatic renewal for the SSM this season. It's marketed as a convenience for the customer, but we all know the point of automatic renewals with any subscription based product is that the odds of someone forgetting to cancel or not going through the hassle of cancelling is greater than the odds of someone going out of their way to renew. I think that it's meant to increase retention rate of SSMs and make it a bit more of a hassle to cancel.

What is the final date to actively go out of your way to ensure you're not locked in for another year, March 3rd. While Norris isn't a hugely popular player like Brady or Stutzle, he would be one of the first significant players of this rebuild to be moved on from. Brannstrom never really made it here, and Chychrun was more of a mercenary. Moving Norris is going to validate the failure of the on ice product to some fans, especially if the return is substandard, like a few veteran roster players with term from Vancouver. With how close they are to March 4th, it makes sense to hold off on that trade until after auto-renewal. Norris is also injured, or was injured, so if they have a deal they are close on it doesn't arouse suspicion to just say "he's not ready" and hold him out for an extra game or two.

On a side note, they did have a rack of Tkachuk jerseys on the upper floor store, but that's their 1A/1B player with Stutzle. That doesn't arouse much suspicion. Two racks of Norris trades is like an easter egg hint. I thought maybe it would be the cashier from Gabriel Pizza who I'd get the big scoop from, but when I asked them if they heard anything about the King's shopping Byfield, they acted confused and a bit uncomfortable. I think they may have been protecting their sources.
 
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Gotta explore what a massive haul for Brady looks like, even Batherson should have great trade value.

Use those trades to restock, retool and clear cap to start off in a fresh direction.
 
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I went to the game tonight, not to enjoy the action on the ice, but to sniff around for clues. #bootsontheground.

Interesting note from the 100 level team store.

They have two racks that are prime real estate for jerseys they want to sell more than others. These are two 6 foot clothing racks that are right by the entrance. They are at customer height. So from a marketing POV, if someone walks into the store and is going to impulse buy a jersey, they are a lot more likely to grab something from that rack than they are to get an associate to reach the Ullmark jersey on the wall.

I notice that they always put Adidas jerseys on here, because at certain points during the season they haven't been on sale. I assume the logic being, your average person won't know it's outdated since it's the same thing, and will be more likely to grab an Adidas jersey.

Today, both racks were filled with Norris jerseys. I think they were all Adidas. I don't think it was a case where Norris was their only Adidas player left.

If this was Stutzle or even Tkachuk, I wouldn't bat an eye. But Norris isn't exactly our most popular player. So it is interesting to see them deliberately market his jersey in a way that would increase the likelihood that they sell them now. As if they somehow have a reason to believe, come March 4th, those jerseys will be worth a lot less...

As far as the March 4th date, they instituted an automatic renewal for the SSM this season. It's marketed as a convenience for the customer, but we all know the point of automatic renewals with any subscription based product is that the odds of someone forgetting to cancel or not going through the hassle of cancelling is greater than the odds of someone going out of their way to renew. I think that it's meant to increase retention rate of SSMs and make it a bit more of a hassle to cancel.

What is the final date to actively go out of your way to ensure you're not locked in for another year, March 3rd. While Norris isn't a hugely popular player like Brady or Stutzle, he would be one of the first significant players of this rebuild to be moved on from. Brannstrom never really made it here, and Chychrun was more of a mercenary. Moving Norris is going to validate the failure of the on ice product to some fans, especially if the return is substandard, like a few veteran roster players with term from Vancouver. With how close they are to March 4th, it makes sense to hold off on that trade until after auto-renewal. Norris is also injured, or was injured, so if they have a deal they are close on it doesn't arouse suspicion to just say "he's not ready" and hold him out for an extra game or two.

On a side note, they did have a rack of Tkachuk jerseys on the upper floor store, but that's their 1A/1B player with Stutzle. That doesn't arouse much suspicion. Two racks of Norris trades is like an easter egg hint. I thought maybe it would be the cashier from Gabriel Pizza who I'd get the big scoop from, but when I asked them if they heard anything about the King's shopping Byfield, they acted confused and a bit uncomfortable. I think they may have been protecting their sources.

I wonder if Staios has a weekly meeting with the Sens Store merchandising manager, or if it's more of a bi-weekly thing...

I love the theory though.

I'd prefer to move Norris to Utah for Crouse than anything Vancouver has to offer, though.
---

To Utah: Josh Norris
To Ottawa: Lawson Crouse + 2026 2nd (originally our pick)

To Nashville: Tyler Boucher + 2026 3rd (from FLA)
To Ottawa: Colton Sissons

---

Tkachuk - Stützle - Giroux
Crouse - Pinto - Batherson
Greig - Sissons - Amadio
Gregor - Gaudette - Perron
 
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As others have said, i don’t see us doing anything. At most we get a cheap depth forward. Had we not gone on this 5 game losing skid, things probably would’ve been a bit different but this is where we are at now. Sink or swim.

The heavy lifting should happen in the offseason.

I think that everybody is available except Giroux, Stutzle, Sanderson, Pinto, Greig, Yak, and probably Merilainen.

The reason I put Giroux on that list is because they clearly value veteran leadership, he is the one player in the entire world other than Erik Karlsson who covets being in Ottawa, and if there is any chance that Tkachuk is on his way out he would probably be the captain. They could pull a Plekanec if he wants to chase a cup, and send him somewhere for draft picks with all sides knowing a July 1st deal is already agreed on if Giroux doesn't change his mind.

That doesn't mean that we will shop everybody and move everybody, but I think judging by last offseason and the amount of player movement Staios made, he wants to cycle out the core and re-tool on the fly.

Batherson is gone in a hockey trade for another top 6 forward. Maybe something like Batherson for Mittelstadt. Mittelstadt has had a down season in Colorado, Friedman connected us to him, and Batherson trains with the MacKinnon/Crosby group in the summer. My dark horse would be Batherson to Pittsburgh in some sort of Karlsson deal. I don't think they can let Batherson's play go unanswered. I also think they were already motivated to swap out as much of the old core as possible and that Batherson's effort level only validates that.

My prediction is that Norris is going to Vancouver or another team for 2-3 bad contracts that have equal the contract of Norris, but have less term and liability. Soucy, Hoglander, etc. Players no one will be excited to get for him.

I don't think we will pick up many assets, unless Tkachuk is traded, but I think there will be about as big of a re-tool as you can do at the TDL, and Staios will continue to rip out pieces of Dorion's core with more Chychrun for Jensen type trades, where we give up the more exciting sexy trade for lesser pieces that Staios thinks are a better fit both mentally and on the ice.
 
I went to the game tonight, not to enjoy the action on the ice, but to sniff around for clues. #bootsontheground.

Interesting note from the 100 level team store.

They have two racks that are prime real estate for jerseys they want to sell more than others. These are two 6 foot clothing racks that are right by the entrance. They are at customer height. So from a marketing POV, if someone walks into the store and is going to impulse buy a jersey, they are a lot more likely to grab something from that rack than they are to get an associate to reach the Ullmark jersey on the wall.

I notice that they always put Adidas jerseys on here, because at certain points during the season they haven't been on sale. I assume the logic being, your average person won't know it's outdated since it's the same thing, and will be more likely to grab an Adidas jersey.

Today, both racks were filled with Norris jerseys. I think they were all Adidas. I don't think it was a case where Norris was their only Adidas player left.

If this was Stutzle or even Tkachuk, I wouldn't bat an eye. But Norris isn't exactly our most popular player. So it is interesting to see them deliberately market his jersey in a way that would increase the likelihood that they sell them now. As if they somehow have a reason to believe, come March 4th, those jerseys will be worth a lot less...

As far as the March 4th date, they instituted an automatic renewal for the SSM this season. It's marketed as a convenience for the customer, but we all know the point of automatic renewals with any subscription based product is that the odds of someone forgetting to cancel or not going through the hassle of cancelling is greater than the odds of someone going out of their way to renew. I think that it's meant to increase retention rate of SSMs and make it a bit more of a hassle to cancel.

What is the final date to actively go out of your way to ensure you're not locked in for another year, March 3rd. While Norris isn't a hugely popular player like Brady or Stutzle, he would be one of the first significant players of this rebuild to be moved on from. Brannstrom never really made it here, and Chychrun was more of a mercenary. Moving Norris is going to validate the failure of the on ice product to some fans, especially if the return is substandard, like a few veteran roster players with term from Vancouver. With how close they are to March 4th, it makes sense to hold off on that trade until after auto-renewal. Norris is also injured, or was injured, so if they have a deal they are close on it doesn't arouse suspicion to just say "he's not ready" and hold him out for an extra game or two.

On a side note, they did have a rack of Tkachuk jerseys on the upper floor store, but that's their 1A/1B player with Stutzle. That doesn't arouse much suspicion. Two racks of Norris trades is like an easter egg hint. I thought maybe it would be the cashier from Gabriel Pizza who I'd get the big scoop from, but when I asked them if they heard anything about the King's shopping Byfield, they acted confused and a bit uncomfortable. I think they may have been protecting their sources.

 
I think that everybody is available except Giroux, Stutzle, Sanderson, Pinto, Greig, Yak, and probably Merilainen.

The reason I put Giroux on that list is because they clearly value veteran leadership, he is the one player in the entire world other than Erik Karlsson who covets being in Ottawa, and if there is any chance that Tkachuk is on his way out he would probably be the captain. They could pull a Plekanec if he wants to chase a cup, and send him somewhere for draft picks with all sides knowing a July 1st deal is already agreed on if Giroux doesn't change his mind.

That doesn't mean that we will shop everybody and move everybody, but I think judging by last offseason and the amount of player movement Staios made, he wants to cycle out the core and re-tool on the fly.

Batherson is gone in a hockey trade for another top 6 forward. Maybe something like Batherson for Mittelstadt. Mittelstadt has had a down season in Colorado, Friedman connected us to him, and Batherson trains with the MacKinnon/Crosby group in the summer. My dark horse would be Batherson to Pittsburgh in some sort of Karlsson deal. I don't think they can let Batherson's play go unanswered. I also think they were already motivated to swap out as much of the old core as possible and that Batherson's effort level only validates that.

My prediction is that Norris is going to Vancouver or another team for 2-3 bad contracts that have equal the contract of Norris, but have less term and liability. Soucy, Hoglander, etc. Players no one will be excited to get for him.

I don't think we will pick up many assets, unless Tkachuk is traded, but I think there will be about as big of a re-tool as you can do at the TDL, and Staios will continue to rip out pieces of Dorion's core with more Chychrun for Jensen type trades, where we give up the more exciting sexy trade for lesser pieces that Staios thinks are a better fit both mentally and on the ice.

Mittelstadt is Batherson who plays C. Skilled but inconsistent. When his moves work it's great, when they don't it's bad, but he keeps trying them regardless. That'd be a disappointing, lateral move.
 
Only small tweaks this deadline. If this group cannot make the playoffs, do the heavy lifting in the summer and fix this core. No more country club.
 
I wonder if Staios has a weekly meeting with the Sens Store merchandising manager, or if it's more of a bi-weekly thing...

I love the theory though.

I'd prefer to move Norris to Utah for Crouse than anything Vancouver has to offer, though.

I highly doubt Staios burst into the office and said "Listen, Vancouver has finally agreed to put Soucy in the deal, fill those racks with Norris jerseys...NOW."

My assumption is that the store manager or marketing team is evaluated based on their performance, and they probably assume Norris is gone so it's a good time to market his jersey more heavily than the others. Because if he is traded say a week from now, they won't be able to get rid of Norris Adidas jerseys at any reasonable price.

I just thought it was incredibly strange to only have one player on that rack, and have it be Norris of all people.

Another thing is that I know a bit about Adidas jersey distribution - how it works is that a handful of popular players are picked out to be pre-made by the good people of Indonesia, because they can sell player jerseys for almost the same price as blank jerseys doing it that way. But they only do the most popular players because they mass produce them. Norris was not one of the players who they made those jerseys of. That means that any Norris jerseys available in the team store to buy off the rack are made using NHLPA certified player kits. Meaning, kits that are glued on with a heat press that some teenage boy can be trained to make in 30 seconds.

I do not know what the Sens stores processes are, but if I were to run with my theory and guess why two massive racks of Norris jerseys randomly appeared, maybe they wanted to get rid of all their Norris kits on hand. These kits cost about $50 wholesale from Stahls and would basically be garbage once he is traded. So if they have crates of blank Adidas jerseys and a few dozen kits left, and they either know or have an indication that we are going to win the Carson Soucy lottery, it would make sense to throw them on the blank jerseys now and pray to Melnyk that people grab them from the high traffic area they put them in.

Ian Mendes posts here right? Can he just let us know if my theory is true. We won't tell anyone. This is a message board in 2025. Nobody reads this stuff outside of a dozen of us.

edit: Just to clarify, I love weird fun Senators conspiracies like this. I found it incredibly compelling how strange of a choice it was to have two full racks of Norris jerseys in the most prime real estate for their store. I didn't actually ask the Gabriels cashier for scoops. I know the Joe ***** podcast is a favourite of most here, so my conspiracy theories should be at home.
 
Gotta explore what a massive haul for Brady looks like, even Batherson should have great trade value.

Use those trades to restock, retool and clear cap to start off in a fresh direction.

I am skeptical about Batherson having a lot of value right now.

I think there would be a ton of interest, but interest doesn't always translate to high value. He is a few years removed from looking like he could be a superstar. He has been up and down. I would not even consider his cap hit to be the bargain that I would have if you asked me even 6 months ago. His inconsistency and failure to get back to where he was when he was our best forward that year he got hurt has likely hurt his value.

I also think that we will want a hockey trade, which might make it a bit difficult to create a market.
 

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