Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline

[CelticDruid]

Looking at the off-season, it would be active for us, depending on how the playoffs go

Forward wise, I think the Leafs are intentionally looking at Robertson beside Tavares, and perhaps soon, Knies beside Tavares for a reason. I think there might be an appetite to create three strong lines, and our checking line, versus the top 6 set-up, the checking, and then a mix of a 4th line.

Forward wise, I don't think it's crazy we something like the below; (new AAV)

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Knies (825K) - Tavares - Robertson
Nylander - Kerfoot - Blackwell (900K)
Engvall (1.5) - Kampf - Kase (1.25)
Scratches: Simmonds

Nylander and Kerfoot have underrated chemistry. Nylander and Tavares are hit or miss it seems. In this scenario, Line 1 would get the most, Line 2 and 3, and 4 would get similar amounts based on situation (if we are down, 2 and 3 would get more, if we up are slightly, 3 and 4 would get more, if we are up large, it would stay relatively even). Now, there is room to upgrade here, perhaps there is a free agent we bring in for line 2 instead of one of the kids. Perhaps, Kerfoot is traded and there is a free agent in that 3C position. Not closing the door on that, but this exercise more looking at ways we can open some cap space to do other things. But Tavares has never needed a star on his line throughout his career. I think the youthful high pace tempo Knies and Robertson play with can help Tavares a lot.

Our defense, I can see looking like this next year;

Rielly - Lyubushkin (1.75)
Giordano (2.5) - Brodie
Sandin (925K) - Liljegren (925K)
Scratches: Rubins (750K) + TBD

These pairings certainly aren't sent. It's perhaps more likely we see Brodie with Sandin, and Liljegren with Gio for much of the season. Gio takes 1 year, at a decent salary, so he doesn't go full Spezza. Perhaps he will, but I want to stay on the optimistic side. However, I do think this is the core six we will see on our blueline.

So, this is where I address the elephant. Jake Muzzin, and Justin Holl, both traded.

I send Jake Muzzin back to the LA Kings for a Conditional 2023 4th Round Pick. This becomes a 2nd round pick if Jake Muzzin plays 70 games or more, and the Kings make the playoffs, or becomes a 3rd if the Kings do one or the other. Why this works? Jake Muzzin will have had 3 good runs with the Leafs. I think the average Leaf fan has enjoyed Muzzin's time with the Leafs. However, the Leafs need to keep a spot open for Rasmus Sandin, and Mark Giordano can come in and be the veteran presence on the blueline. For the Kings, their left side is pretty empty. Alex Edler is a pending UFA, and may want to go somewhere more competitive, Bjornfot is a good young player but not ready for top 4 minutes, and the Kings have no one else really coming in to step up. Enter, Jake Muzzin. Kings have an abundance of cap space over the next two seasons, and have a need. They bring back a familiar face, for what will likely be only a fourth round pick.

Justin Holl: This is a more low-key move. The Leafs currently have just 3 picks in this years draft, so I trade Holl for a 3rd and 5th round pick in 2022. The Leafs could perhaps try and get a 2nd rounder, but I would take the quantity over quality. My target here is the Nashville Predators, who can use some help on the right side behind Dante Fabbro.

Now onto goaltending. Could we look at something like this?

Starting Goalie: Semyon Varlamov
Backup Goalie: Erik Kallgren (Joseph Woll) (Harri Sateri)

Erik Kallgren was regarded as someone with NHL potential when he was signed. And through a brief NHL appearance thus far, has certainly not looked out of place. I think his ceiling is an NHL backup, but a competent one. I think the Leafs best case scenario when they signed Kallgren to a 2 year deal, was for him to get used to North American style in year 1, and then be the backup year 2. Joseph Woll could also compete for this position internally. There is also a chance that Harri Sateri is signed and brought back in, during the off-season.

Semyon Varlamov - Has had a good year, but has been relegated to a 1B role. It's expected he will be moved in the off-season, and while he turned down Edmonton, there were no reports about the same with Toronto, despite reports the Leafs-Islanders were in discussions leading up to the trade deadline. Now this trade is tricky. As the Leafs don't have a 2nd round pick in either 2022, or 2023, and my expected return value for Varlamov would be a 2nd and a prospect. So in this scenario, I have the Leafs sending their 2022 1st Round Pick, Joey Anderson, Mikhail Abramov and the RFA rights to Joe Duszak to the Islanders for Semyon Varlamov and a 2022 3rd Round Pick.

Petr Mrazek is bought out, and would carry a cap hit of 1.033M for the first year

With this 22 man roster, the Leafs would sit with ~3.8M in cap space. So there is room to add in a 2nd line forward in free agency, and the Leafs can still look for a new 3C while moving out Kerfoot, and possibly look at bringing in a more established backup goalie. Free agency is largely speculative, so I wanted to keep this to realistic trades, and internal options only.

#65 ?

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Engvall should be an easy re-up.

And I'm pretty sure they'll trade Kerf before letting Mikky go.

100% agree.

Kerfoot should be the first to go. Engvall and Mikheyev have good, long-term potential and will only get better as their chemistry develops. The Leafs have something good with them and need to maintain it regardless of how this season unfolds.

 

[Knies iT]

Kerfoot will be this team's last expendable asset that can return a late 1st/pair of 2nd's in value for a while. Every other secondary piece will be an own rental (Brodie, Muzzin, Mikheyev, etc.), re-signed (Bunting, Engvall), or don't have enough value to make trading them worthwhile (Kase, Kampf, etc.).

With Knies, Robertson, Holmberg, and Abruzzese all pro-ready, it's a low risk time to divorce him in the summer. Been saying this since last August. He will be a rental next year and giving him a raise would be a piss poor misuse of cap. These next two drafts could be key for this core, as you're looking at a 3-4 year ETA at best for your selection to be impactful, bringing the core to their late 20s. I view these next two drafts as major opportunities to add a final waive of high-end ELC depth to this group and Kerfoot is the best option to replenish picks.

Until then he'll be valuable on this cup run.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Kerfoot will be this team's last expendable asset that can return a late 1st/pair of 2nd's in value for a while. Every other secondary piece will be an own rental (Brodie, Muzzin, Mikheyev, etc.), re-signed (Bunting, Engvall), or don't have enough value to make trading them worthwhile (Kase, Kampf, etc.).

With Knies, Robertson, Holmberg, and Abruzzese all pro-ready, it's a low risk time to divorce him in the summer. Been saying this since last August. He will be a rental next year and giving him a raise would be a piss poor misuse of cap. These next two drafts could be key for this core, as you're looking at a 3-4 year ETA at best for your selection to be impactful, bringing the core to their late 20s. I view these next two drafts as major opportunities to add a final waive of high-end ELC depth to this group and Kerfoot is the best option to replenish picks.

Until then he'll be valuable on this cup run.

IIRC his contract is also going to be very appealing after we pay his bonus this summer, someone like Arizona could rent him for ~450k, feed him PP time to pad his stats, and flip him at 50% next deadline for 1st++.

 

[Dreakmur]

100% agree.

Kerfoot should be the first to go. Engvall and Mikheyev have good, long-term potential and will only get better as their chemistry develops. The Leafs have something good with them and need to maintain it regardless of how this season unfolds.

Engvall has been good for a good bit this year. I'm not sure if it's a fluke like Holl's good stretch last year, or if he's actually figured out how to play effectively for good.

If this is the new him, I'm comfortable giving him a pretty decent contract extension.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Engvall has been good for a good bit this year. I'm not sure if it's a fluke like Holl's good stretch last year, or if he's actually figured out how to play effectively for good.

If this is the new him, I'm comfortable giving him a pretty decent contract extension.

Engvall is much younger than Holl so I suspect this could be meaningful growth.

 

[Fogelhund]

Engvall has shown in the past he has this potential, just maybe more consistent defensively and PK now. All round game.

 

[jaric1862]

I wonder if they try to bring over Oscar Dansk now

 

[Dreakmur]

I wonder if they try to bring over Oscar Dansk now

Isn’t he pretty universally hated by teammates?

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I wonder if they try to bring over Oscar Dansk now

Just give Petruzzelli his ELC instead. No point in bringing Dansk in now.

Figure out what you want to do with Scott and go into next year with Kallgren/Woll/Petruzelli/Scott(or a replacement) and then try to upgrade on Mrazek at the NHL level.

 

[nuck]

Engvall has been good for a good bit this year. I'm not sure if it's a fluke like Holl's good stretch last year, or if he's actually figured out how to play effectively for good.

If this is the new him, I'm comfortable giving him a pretty decent contract extension.

I think it was finding the right line mates and proper usage. He was showing a lot his rookie year before they dialed back his ice time. Still a caveat as this was the best season Kampf has ever had and Mik may be outbound so the fit might not be the same next season. Now he has done what he has done in under 13:00 TOI so I have some faith in him repeating this season and maybe Kampf finally found his optimal usage as well which would be great in terms of doing it again. If they show as well in the pressure of the playoffs I think it may be a thing we get to see again next year.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

What would everyone think of Muzzin for Foegele + a 2nd or 3rd deal at the draft. We'd gain almost 3 mill in cap, add a 2nd or 3rd in the 2022 draft and could slot Foegele next to JT and Willy. Foegel is fast, he forechecks really hard and would provide a lot of space for JT and Willy on that second line. Edmonton is also looking for a solid defensive LD to add to their team.

 

[nuck]

What would everyone think of Muzzin for Foegele + a 2nd or 3rd deal at the draft. We'd gain almost 3 mill in cap, add a 2nd or 3rd in the 2022 draft and could slot Foegele next to JT and Willy. Foegel is fast, he forechecks really hard and would provide a lot of space for JT and Willy on that second line. Edmonton is also looking for a solid defensive LD to add to their team.

His has a NT and I think he would use it for Edmonton. At this stage in his career he is looking for either a comfortable landing spot or a Cup favorite and the Oil are neither. Also in his banged up and depleted condition and at that cap hit the Oilers wouldn't touch him. (they already have Keith right?) Without a long stretch of unconcussed play he is probably untradeable without a sweetener IMO, and if he can give them that they wouldn't be looking to move him.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

His has a NT and I think he would use it for Edmonton. At this stage in his career he is looking for either a comfortable landing spot or a Cup favorite and the Oil are neither. Also in his banged up and depleted condition and at that cap hit the Oilers wouldn't touch him. (they already have Keith right?) Without a long stretch of unconcussed play he is probably untradeable without a sweetener IMO, and if he can give them that they wouldn't be looking to move him.

If Muzzin regains his form and plays well in the playoffs for us he will have solid value. Just needs to prove his health and play are back to normal.

 

[Ashdown2]

What would everyone think of Muzzin for Foegele + a 2nd or 3rd deal at the draft. We'd gain almost 3 mill in cap, add a 2nd or 3rd in the 2022 draft and could slot Foegele next to JT and Willy. Foegel is fast, he forechecks really hard and would provide a lot of space for JT and Willy on that second line. Edmonton is also looking for a solid defensive LD to add to their team.

i dont think the oilers will be that dumb, they are already in cap hell. next year they are already spending 26mil on 5 guys.
they wont be able to afford muzzy contract unless maybe the leafs retaining some salary.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

i dont think the oilers will be that dumb, they are already in cap hell. next year they are already spending 26mil on 5 guys.
they wont be able to afford muzzy contract unless maybe the leafs retaining some salary.

Its true they are facing cap issues but their biggest holes are on the back end. Who knows what happens between now and then. Just hope Muzz returns to form for us.

 

[horner]

Trades at the draft to recoup some picks and cap space.

Kerfoot
Holl
Mrazek

 

[showtime8]

Trades at the draft to recoup some picks and cap space.

Kerfoot
Holl
Mrazek

The draft picks you'll get from Kerfoot and Holl will have to be re-directed to sending them to the other team to take Mrazek's contract.

 

[Ashdown2]

Its true they are facing cap issues but their biggest holes are on the back end. Who knows what happens between now and then. Just hope Muzz returns to form for us.

try and work something out with LA ... i cant see them being very interested. They basically have no d signed for next year, they can easily afford the contract, he would be returning home etc. ..

i could see a muzzin to kempe straight up swap which would work great for both teams

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

try and work something out with LA ... i cant see them being very interested. They basically have no d signed for next year, they can easily afford the contract, he would be returning home etc. ..

i could see a muzzin to kempe straight up swap which would work great for both teams

If its a Muzzin Kempe trade I believe the Leafs would have to add.

 

[Carltons Cup]

Just give Petruzzelli his ELC instead. No point in bringing Dansk in now.

Figure out what you want to do with Scott and go into next year with Kallgren/Woll/Petruzelli/Scott(or a replacement) and then try to upgrade on Mrazek at the NHL level.

Don't forget Hutchinson.

He's like a bad cancer - can't get rid of him no matter how hard they try,

 

[Magic Man]

I don't think they should bother with Ian Scott. He has played 7 games total in 3 pro seasons and he was absolutely atrocious in them. He's injury prone, he's chewed up enough of their time.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think it was finding the right line mates and proper usage. He was showing a lot his rookie year before they dialed back his ice time. Still a caveat as this was the best season Kampf has ever had and Mik may be outbound so the fit might not be the same next season. Now he has done what he has done in under 13:00 TOI so I have some faith in him repeating this season and maybe Kampf finally found his optimal usage as well which would be great in terms of doing it again. If they show as well in the pressure of the playoffs I think it may be a thing we get to see again next year.

Also not playing him at centre has been a big help. He just wasn't good there.

 

[Morgs]

Engvall has been good for a good bit this year. I'm not sure if it's a fluke like Holl's good stretch last year, or if he's actually figured out how to play effectively for good.

If this is the new him, I'm comfortable giving him a pretty decent contract extension.

His individual numbers are virtually identical every year he's played in the NHL. People are just realizing that what he's always brought is amazing for a 3rd line player, and is a key cog in a ridiculously good 3rd line. Doesn't need to be physical to be amazing defensively, while driving offense.

 

[Nylanderthal]

The draft picks you'll get from Kerfoot and Holl will have to be re-directed to sending them to the other team to take Mrazek's contract.

Based on what? You really think a bad 15 game stretch (really two bad 6 or so game game segments with a solid few games inbetween) completely negates a decade of 910 play? Ritchie who was awful went with a 3rd and returned a guy currently playing top 4 minutes for us with physicality.
At worst it’s something like mrazek and a pick for a guy who isn’t working on the other team but can fill a role here, at best he goes somewhere for a mid round pick, but it’s definitely not going to be some burdensome cost. I don’t profess to be the best at gauging value, but I figure you’re looking st potentially the following in the off-season to restock the cupboards
Holl- 1st at best case down to a 2nd +5th
Kerfoot- 1st or 2 2nds
Muzzin-same as holl maybe a contract swap
Mrazek- getting a 3rd down to adding a 3rd for a prospect/nothing/AHL player or nhl contract that maybe fits here but not with the other side.