Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline

[Sypher04]

I can't imagine anyone thinking differently.

Well, I didn’t quote it so that’s my fault I guess, it was a long post. But it was in reply to someone calling his contract unmoveable

 

[ACC1224]

Well, I didn’t quote it so that’s my fault I guess, it was a long post. But it was in reply to someone calling his contract unmoveable

Got it.
I don't believe that what people post and what they believe are always the same thing.

 

[Rude Dog]

Kind of excited about reading up on some of the 1st round prospects that may be still there when we draft in the 1st round this year. During the re-build I loved this. Haven't had to worry about it for a few years.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The threat of a long drawn out arbitration hearing is what many GMs are looking to avoid. The Leafs can't afford not having cost certainty on day 1 of free agency.

That's not to say they can't work a deal out before the season is up, but why would these guys sign for less than 2 mil when they have arb rights? Leaf fans have consistently been wrong on what they think players will re-sign for, this probably won't be different.

Also factor in they get national spotlight as Leaf players and that at least doubles their value as free agents (while also making them valueless in trades because lose deal to glasses man bad for image in boys club)

Since when? What exactly are the Leafs doing which will chew up a huge amount of their cap or where they need "cost certainty" to the point where we would let two very valuable players go for nothing?

That being said, just because they are valuable to us does not mean they will see that reflected in their cap number. You are assuming an arbitrator would even give them more than 2 mill. What are you basing that off of, because I am looking at a guy like Andrew Copp who received 2 x 2.25 (approximately) after an arbitration hearing in 2019 and I am not seeing Engvall and Kase getting even that much.

The Leafs have a fairly easy arbitration case against both: Kase has been hurt for much of the previous 2 years before this one, and suffered a few more this year too which have cost him games. That hurts Kase's case a lot. Kase is 9th in ATOI while Engvall is 10th, and Engvall has been healthy scratched for stretches of time in his NHL career (including this year). Neither have been trusted with premiere special teams minutes. Neither are in the top 6 in terms of production categories. That is a lot of what is used to determine cap numbers in arbitration and the Leafs have a lot of leverage in all of them. "National spotlight" means jack **** in arbitration cases and does not double their value. Doesn't even get considered at all.

And then there is a good chance the Leafs could look to move Kerfoot, Mrazek, and maybe Holl (if we can re-sign Giordano for cheap) in the offseason depending on how they want to do things. You would be looking at a lineup that looks something like this:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Kase/Anderson
Engvall - Kampf - UFA
ELC* - Spezza - Kase/Anderson
Simmonds

* Holmberg or Abruzzese would likely be top candidates since they can split center duties with Spezza and have special teams value.

Rielly - Liljegren
Muzzin - Brodie
Sandin - Giordano/Holl
UFA

Campbell - Mrazek/???

The Leafs would have more than enough cap space to fill these remaining holes.

 

[geo25]

Leafs have a lot of work to do this offseason.

Goaltending:
Almost not even worth talking about until the season is done. This is Campbell's first and likely only opportunity to cash in long term for big money, especially if he comes back and plays well. He was an all star this year. I see a very low chance of him returning no matter what happens.

Mrazek is also still such a wild card. Post-waivers and deadline, he now has a fresh start to find his game. He was signed to be a 1A/1B goalie with Campbell and hedge against his inevitable departure. If he continues to disappoint, maybe the Sabres make a move for him as they have no signed goaltenders for next season. But that leaves the leaves with nothing in net. I can't even guess as to what will become of the Leafs goaltending after this year.

Forwards:
I don't think the Leafs can afford to qualify Engvall or Kase because of their arbitration rights, and if they don't make a big splash in the playoffs, perhaps they move on and look for more workhorse/gritty bottom 6 players. This one is going to shock people who think RFAs are freely kept, but no, we saw this with Ritchie, Kampf and Kase already. Not worth getting stuck with a 2 mil+ contract.

Mikheyev similarly is done here I think. He should be able to command 2-3 million and a promise at a top-6 role with other teams.

Kerfoot has a year left, but moving his money to spend more wisely seems like it has a lot of merit, unless he has a good showing in the playoffs and proves he can still contribute on a line with JT/Willy.

Nylander.. well, who knows? If the Leafs don't do well, moving Nylander and Kerfoots combined 10.5 million and turning it into two fundamentally different top-6 wingers to play with Tavares might have merit.

Matthews, Marner. Untouchable at this point. Marner is unmovable by virtue of his contract regardless of his play. Bunting will obviously stay.

Kampf, no reason to move him. He's great in his role, gives the Leafs options to upgrade 3C or stay with him there.

Blackwell, can't really comment on him but he's the type of player you want in your bottom-6, and the Leafs targetted him before. I predict they give him Engvall/Kase contract, re-sign him and play him with Kampf next year in the checking line.

Spezza/Simmonds/Clifford, enough with this experiment, I think the Leafs need energy guys. Simmonds potentially sticks around with his extra year in a strictly enforcer role.

Bunting/Matthews/Marner
Kerfoot/Tavares/Nylander
Blackwell/Kampf/----
----/----/----

Remaking this bottom 6 is the focus of next season with the potential of peddling Kerfoot/Nylander for a different set of wingers if that 2nd line has truly lost the plot.

Defense:

Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, Holl not going anywhere. Unless they can convince Muzzin to waive his NTC. But then what? Do you pay an asset to move him if he isn't pulling value? Better to just assume this arrangement will stick.

Giordano needs to ask himself if he's willing to play for much, MUCH less. But I wouldn't hold out on this.

Sandin and Liljgren are both RFAs that need to be signed, I don't think they're going to come in under a million.

Lyubushkin also needs a new contract, and I think the Leafs will want to keep him. Will he cost more than the Holl contract? 6 out of a potential 8 roster spots are accounted for, and if the Leafs cut it close to the cap next year and have to run 21 players, maybe they just won't be able to keep this guy.

Well put

 

[LeafSteel]

Already looking forward to 2022 UFA’s.

Mason Marchment included…….

 

[TMLAM34]

Tanner Jeannot would be a name I’d target hard this off-season. Won’t be cheap though.

 

[LeafChief]

Kind of excited about reading up on some of the 1st round prospects that may be still there when we draft in the 1st round this year. During the re-build I loved this. Haven't had to worry about it for a few years.

I wouldn't be shocked if we traded back to recover a few assets.

Depending on where we land pick wise, maybe trade bak for two 2nds or a 2nd and a third.

They turned a 2nd into a later 2nd a a 3rd two years ago. Ottawa selected Kleven with the 2nd we sent them and we selected Hirvonen and Niemela with the picks we got back. Still early but looks like its working out real well for us.

 

[Fogelhund]

Teams always have lots of work to do, every off season.

We are going to have a bunch of guys potentially pushing for spots next year too. Steeves, Seney, Anderson, Holmberg, Robertson, Knies, Abruzzese, Douglas...

I'd bet Giordano signs for Holl to Dermott money. Wouldn't shock me to see Lyubushkin back either.

Goaltending may need to be addressed...

Forwards

Mikheyev is gone, Engvall gets resigned near his current. Kase... I like the player, but he isn't reliable... not sure there, but he won't cost more than what he costs now. Love Spezza, but he's done. Blackwell... I have no idea about this guy, so ????

Kerfoot is a useful player, but we are always going to post about him, given the cap hit.

Barring a massive shakeup trade.. which I doubt to be honest, we will be looking at this.

Bunting Matthews Marner
xxxx Tavares Nylander
xxxx Kampf xxxx
xxxx xxxx xxxx

Maybe we keep Kerfoot.. I don't know.. but if not, his cap likely goes to sign someone to play with Tavares and Nylander..

With Steeves, Seney, Anderson, Holmberg, Robertson, Knies, Abruzzese, Douglas, Simmonds, Clifford, Engvall, plus whomever else we sign, to fill the rest of the spots.

Maybe there isn't as much to do, as some think?

 

[VanW27]

Tanner Jeannot would be a name I’d target hard this off-season. Won’t be cheap though.

I get the appeal but I can't imagine there's a trade to be made there that makes sense. He's 24, with another year a 800,000, has 21 goals in 64 games as a rookie, hits everything that moves, fights, PKs. Why would Nashville trade him?

On the other hand, is he really this good, the physicality and energy are part of his game for sure but is the offense sustainable? I can't say I've seen enough of him to really give an informed opinion but there is reason to be skeptical of the offense:

- Pretty underwhelming junior stats, until his 20 year old season where he put up 40G and 40A in 72 games. But even that was only good for a distant 4th in team scoring (would have been 5th if not for injuries to Brett Howden) as he played with a high powered WHL offense which included the 1st, 4th and 10th highest scorers in the league - along with Howden's 1.53ppg.
- No real offense in his 21 or 22 year old seasons in the AHL (7 goals in 37 games and 5 goals in 57 games respectively) before breaking out as a 23 year old with 10 goals in 13 games along with 5 goals in 15 NHL games and now 21 goals in 64 NHL games.

Could just be a late bloomer, or maybe there's some fundamental change in his game but without further info I'd be wary of paying the high price (justifiably high) it would cost to acquire him.

 

[Machinae]

Since when? What exactly are the Leafs doing which will chew up a huge amount of their cap or where they need "cost certainty" to the point where we would let two very valuable players go for nothing?

That being said, just because they are valuable to us does not mean they will see that reflected in their cap number. You are assuming an arbitrator would even give them more than 2 mill. What are you basing that off of, because I am looking at a guy like Andrew Copp who received 2 x 2.25 (approximately) after an arbitration hearing in 2019 and I am not seeing Engvall and Kase getting even that much.

The Leafs have a fairly easy arbitration case against both: Kase has been hurt for much of the previous 2 years before this one, and suffered a few more this year too which have cost him games. That hurts Kase's case a lot. Kase is 9th in ATOI while Engvall is 10th, and Engvall has been healthy scratched for stretches of time in his NHL career (including this year). Neither have been trusted with premiere special teams minutes. Neither are in the top 6 in terms of production categories. That is a lot of what is used to determine cap numbers in arbitration and the Leafs have a lot of leverage in all of them. "National spotlight" means jack **** in arbitration cases and does not double their value. Doesn't even get considered at all.

And then there is a good chance the Leafs could look to move Kerfoot, Mrazek, and maybe Holl (if we can re-sign Giordano for cheap) in the offseason depending on how they want to do things. You would be looking at a lineup that looks something like this:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Kase/Anderson
Engvall - Kampf - UFA
ELC* - Spezza - Kase/Anderson
Simmonds

* Holmberg or Abruzzese would likely be top candidates since they can split center duties with Spezza and have special teams value.

Rielly - Liljegren
Muzzin - Brodie
Sandin - Giordano/Holl
UFA

Campbell - Mrazek/???

The Leafs would have more than enough cap space to fill these remaining holes.

These are good points, but I still believe the Leafs will avoid any kind of arbitration tie ups on replaceable bottom 6 forwards. If they are good 3rd line players, there is tons of potential for them to be awarded 1.7-2 mil in arbitration, and if they aren't good enough to collect that, then what value is there in keeping them instead of hunting for bargains like Bunting and Blackwell for under 1mil?

 

[fahad203]

Tanner Jeannot would be a name I’d target hard this off-season. Won’t be cheap though.

Not getting him. A Josh Anderson and Tom Wilson hybrid
They dont' grow on trees

Not to mention a fan and coach favorite already. Kid is going to be a good one
An old school throw back player

 

[TMLAM34]

Not getting him. A Josh Anderson and Tom Wilson hybrid
They dont' grow on trees

Not to mention a fan and coach favorite already. Kid is going to be a good one
An old school throw back player

Would you say no if Nylander was involved in the deal? I think Nashville would definitely listen.

 

[fahad203]

Would you say no if Nylander was involved in the deal? I think Nashville would definitely listen.

I doubt it. I wouldn't do it

Not only Jeanot already proven to be better all around player, he's also significantly cheaper

As good as Nylander can be, players with skills are easier to find than players who are gritty, size and can get you goals

It's only his first year, but every indication that he's going to be a nasty player. Players like him can be moved up and down the line up

 

[LeafChief]

I doubt it. I wouldn't do it

Not only Jeanot already proven to be better all around player, he's also significantly cheaper

As good as Nylander can be, players with skills are easier to find than players who are gritty, size and can get you goals

It's only his first year, but every indication that he's going to be a nasty player. Players like him can be moved up and down the line up

In this thread we have learned that Tanner Jeannot is better than William Nylander.

 

[TMLAM34]

In this thread we have learned that Tanner Jeannot is better than William Nylander.

Lmao… Yeah that’s definitely something.

 

[fahad203]

In this thread we have learned that Tanner Jeannot is better than William Nylander.

Perhaps you should re-read. I said he's better all around player

 

[TMLAM34]

In this thread we have learned that Tanner Jeannot is better than William Nylander.

Well he hits everything therefore he’s also a way better all around player.

 

[Kurtz]

Perhaps you should re-read. I said he's better all around player

I think you meant to say that he's a more well-rounded player. Saying that he's all around better misses the mark. A star offensive winger is more valued in this league than a physical/defensive specialist with some offensive touch.

 

[Nylanderthal]

The threat of a long drawn out arbitration hearing is what many GMs are looking to avoid. The Leafs can't afford not having cost certainty on day 1 of free agency.

That's not to say they can't work a deal out before the season is up, but why would these guys sign for less than 2 mil when they have arb rights? Leaf fans have consistently been wrong on what they think players will re-sign for, this probably won't be different.

Also factor in they get national spotlight as Leaf players and that at least doubles their value as free agents (while also making them valueless in trades because lose deal to glasses man bad for image in boys club)

They’re RFA’s they’ll be qualified and if they don’t agree to something in that ballpark they’ll be traded for draft picks and other options will be made available.
One of the things this group does well is unearthing quality finds for low dollars

 

[Nylanderthal]

Well he hits everything therefore he’s also a way better all around player.

Gotta not have the puck to register a hit

 

[ACC1224]

Perhaps you should re-read. I said he's better all around player

I don't know about that. He's certainly a different player with different strengths.
Definitely a player this team could use but you don't move a Nylander for such a player, IMO.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Win or lose, I wouldn't expect sweeping changes. I think we'll see a new goaltender, LW and RD, but most guys will be back.

Well I mean depending on the day of the week they’re anywhere between 5-8th in pts% so why would there be? It’s really hard to be and maintain being really good. The playoffs are a crapshoot this year considering the conference and hand wringing and navel gazing about what happened before is meangingless

 

[Dreakmur]

Gotta not have the puck to register a hit

Even the best players in the league have the puck on their stick for like 45 seconds a game.

 

[ACC1224]

Even the best players in the league have the puck on their stick for like 45 seconds a game.

In Nylanders case does it matter if he has the puck or not? He’s not hitting anyone