Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
X-JT-X
Engvall-Kampf-X
X-X-X

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin/Muzzin-X
Giordano-Liljegren
X

X
X

That's kinda the template I see...Kerfoot, Holl, 1 of Muzzin/Sandin gone, Mrazek and 88...although people will say Nylander is never going.

As long as Dubas is GM chances are Nylander isn't going

 

[Americanadian]

As the # 1? Not a chance, not 1 year before Matthews can sign an extension

Maybe as the #3

I get him not being a #1 but he's more than capable of being a #2. He just played 37 games and put up a 910 SV% in a league where the average SV% which is the median among all goalies to play 30+ games. He's probably going to command 2M which is low for those numbers. For reference the Athletic said Varlamov should be the top target as a starter and Varlamov posted a 911 SV% in 31 games. If you look at GSAx the only UFA goalies ahead of him this year were Kuemper, Husso, Comrie. I'm penciling Comrie in to return home to EDM so it makes Wedgewood the next best option as a 2 or a 1B (30-35 games).

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Now that travel restrictions are finally lifted I think Bertuzzi would be an ideal target depending on price.

 

[Leaffan1991]

Sandin for Necas
Nylander for Chychrun plus A 1st
Kerfoot for picks
Mrazek plus a pick to anyone
Holl for a pick

Sign Marchment
Sign Paul
Sign ZAR
Sign Lazar
Sign Husso
Sign Wedgewood

Bunting Matthews Marner
Marchment Tavares Necas
Paul Kampf Engvall
Lazar ZAR Steeves or Anderson
Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Chychrun
Gio Lilly
Boosh

Husso
Wedgewood

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Sandin for Necas
Nylander for Chychrun plus A 1st
Kerfoot for picks
Mrazek plus a pick to anyone
Holl for a pick

Sign Marchment
Sign Paul
Sign ZAR
Sign Lazar
Sign Husso
Sign Wedgewood

Bunting Matthews Marner
Marchment Tavares Necas
Paul Kampf Engvall
Lazar ZAR Steeves or Anderson
Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Chychrun
Gio Lilly
Boosh

Husso
Wedgewood

Chycrhun is so overrated its ridiculous. Other then that not bad overall.

 

[ToneDog]

Sandin for Necas
Nylander for Chychrun plus A 1st
Kerfoot for picks
Mrazek plus a pick to anyone
Holl for a pick

Sign Marchment
Sign Paul
Sign ZAR
Sign Lazar
Sign Husso
Sign Wedgewood

Bunting Matthews Marner
Marchment Tavares Necas
Paul Kampf Engvall
Lazar ZAR Steeves or Anderson
Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Chychrun
Gio Lilly
Boosh

Husso
Wedgewood

Sandin for Necas (doubt Sandin is enough)
Nylander for Chychrun plus A 1st (interesting)
Kerfoot for picks (OK)
Mrazek plus a pick to anyone (definitely)
Holl for a pick (OK)

Sign Marchment (yes)
Sign Paul (too expensive ??)
Sign ZAR (too expensive ??)
Sign Lazar (OK)
Sign Husso (YES)
Sign Wedgewood (if price is right)

 

[Americanadian]

Sandin for Necas (doubt Sandin is enough)

I think Necas is the wrong target. He hasn't been playing C in Carolina. Although he's big he doesn't hit. He's very bad defensively. He's the exact type of player you don't want to enter contract negotiations with. Decent point totals and nothing else in his play. He's also been a relative ghost in the playoffs. I definitely wouldn't add to Sandin to get him.

 

[SprDaVE]

Sandin for Necas
Nylander for Chychrun plus A 1st
Kerfoot for picks
Mrazek plus a pick to anyone
Holl for a pick

Sign Marchment
Sign Paul
Sign ZAR
Sign Lazar
Sign Husso
Sign Wedgewood

Bunting Matthews Marner
Marchment Tavares Necas
Paul Kampf Engvall
Lazar ZAR Steeves or Anderson
Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Chychrun
Gio Lilly
Boosh

Husso
Wedgewood

Why does Arizona do that? It's well known they want to nuke their entire team for an insane amount of picks. Chychrun will be traded for even more picks and prospects if he does get traded.

Sandin for Necas does very little for the Leafs and I don't think Carolina cares to do it either. It's a bad trade.

The Leafs won't sign 3-4 highly coveted forwards. Marchment and Paul in particular should be in high demand and it's going to be hard to sign them, Leafs only need one of those players. ZAR and Lazar should be affordable but all it takes is a couple teams to go into a bidding war for average 4th line players, which is not what the Leafs will do with limited cap space.

 

[SprDaVE]

I keep coming back to something like this:

View attachment 560747

Sandin for Hayton
Nylander+Mrazek for Tomasino+17 OA
Malgin for Bastian
Holl to DAL
Kerfoot to NYI

Sign Husso/Marchment/Wedgewood

All contracts projections and standings projections are from EvolvingHockey. There is 7.85M left over (probably less if you factor in Marchment getting more). Overall a solid roster and younger. Tavares gets 2 strong defensive wingers with offensive upside. Line 3 is purely for secondary offense. Line 4 is the checking line.

At first I thought Sandin for Hayton was terrible but thinking on it a little more could be an interesting one if they add a little something. Sandin has been a much better NHLer thus far though, so that is very risky. Admittedly, I haven't watched much of Hayton in the last year or so to have a strong opinion on him but he did have a decent season statistically after years of bordering bust territory. He's a player I've been hoping the Leafs try to get in the right trade.

Remove the Nylander trade (and dump Mrazek with a pick) and I think you're on the right path to being close to what the off-season might look like to me.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Leafs - Coyotes
Lawson Crouse & Jacob Chychrun
for
William Nylander, Rasmus Sandin, Petr Mrazek & 1st

Leafs - Ducks
Nick Robertson, Justin Holl & SDA
for
John Gibson (1.4 Ret)

Leafs - Kings
Jake Muzzin for Brendan Lemieux

Leafs - Bruins
Alex Kerfoot for Trent Frederic

23' Champs:
Crouse - Matthews - Marner
Bunting - Tavares - Trocheck
Marchement - Paul - Engvall
Frederic - Kampf - Lemieux

Rielly - - - - Brodie
Chychrun - Boosh
Giordano - Liljigren

Gibson

 

[ER89]

Think he might be too good to acquire. Maybe if Andreas Johnsson hits UFA we can scoop him up cheap.

rather not do something that hasn't really worked in the past. AJ is nice and all but hes not top 6 material and I want a harder to play against bottom 6. JMO.

Leafs - Coyotes
Lawson Crouse & Jacob Chychrun
for
William Nylander, Rasmus Sandin, Petr Mrazek & 1st

Leafs - Ducks
Nick Robertson, Justin Holl & SDA
for
John Gibson (1.4 Ret)

Leafs - Kings
Jake Muzzin for Brendan Lemieux

Leafs - Bruins
Alex Kerfoot for Trent Frederic

23' Champs:
Crouse - Matthews - Marner
Bunting - Tavares - Trocheck
Marchement - Paul - Engvall
Frederic - Kampf - Lemieux

Rielly - - - - Brodie
Chychrun - Boosh
Giordano - Liljigren

Gibson

we're going to get shutout in game 6 instead of game 7

 

[Americanadian]

At first I thought Sandin for Hayton was terrible but thinking on it a little more could be an interesting one. Admittedly, I haven't watched much of Hayton in the last year or so to have a strong opinion on him but he did have a bit of a decent season statistically after years of bordering bust territory. He's a player I've been hoping the Leafs try to get in the right trade, but we'll see.

I was in the same boat on Hayton for Sandin. On the surface it doesn't seem equal. I liked Hayton's underlying numbers. They are not as good as Sandin's but he is a more physically mature player. The Leafs probably lose this trade in a vacuum but they fill a need (young C) while subtracting from a position that is much easier to fill (LD).

 

[Americanadian]

Remove the Nylander trade (and dump Mrazek with a pick) and I think you're on the right path to being close to what the off-season might look like to me.

Same team with Nylander in for Tomasino:

It's actually worse in overall standings points.

 

[LeafChief]

Same team with Nylander in for Tomasino:

View attachment 560866

It's actually worse in overall standings points.

I didn't watch much of Hayton this year. How did he look?

 

[ULF_55]

Same team with Nylander in for Tomasino:

View attachment 560866

It's actually worse in overall standings points.

Now if only the game was played on paper.

Be a lot less injuries.

Looks like you discovered a flaw in the logic there.

The authors probably would like to know.

 

[SprDaVE]

Same team with Nylander in for Tomasino:

View attachment 560866

It's actually worse in overall standings points.

It might "statistically worse" but more plausible because Nylander isn't getting traded. Not sure 1 WAR fantasy point difference is really all that big of a deal.

 

[Americanadian]

It might "statistically worse" but more plausible because Nylander isn't getting traded. Not sure 1 WAR fantasy point is reallly all that big of a deal.

It's not a big deal. It's the 6M additional cap hit for each of the next 2 years that is the big deal.

 

[SprDaVE]

It's not a big deal. It's the 6M additional cap hit for each of the next 2 years that is the big deal.

Cap space that won't get you 30 goals and 80 points. Tomasino is good but nowhere near the level of Nylander, at least yet.

 

[ULF_55]

It might "statistically worse" but more plausible because Nylander isn't getting traded. Not sure 1 WAR fantasy point difference is really all that big of a deal.

Taking out Nylander and replacing with a 32 point player is an improvement?

Undermines the results.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Trade holl KERFOOT and mrazek

This is your fourth line all signed at 1.25

Sign nick deslauriers
Sign Andreas athansiou
Sign Darren helm

Bunting Matthews marner
Robertson JT nylander
Myles Wood (trade or not qualified) Kampf Engval
Athansiou helm deslauriers
Simmons

Reilly Lilly
muzzin brodie
Sandin gio

??
??

 

[Americanadian]

Now if only the game was played on paper.

Be a lot less injuries.

Looks like you discovered a flaw in the logic there.

The authors probably would like to know.

I wrote this roster builder using EvolvingHockey data. I can factor in injuries if needed. The only players on the initial proposed roster that missed a significant chunk of games last year are Kase/Muzzin/Marchment. Kase is easily replaced on the 4th line. Muzzin's minutes are replaced by Gio and Kral/Rubins/UFA 7D can step in as the 6D. Marchment would be tough to replace in the top 6 but you can slide either or Robertson or Hayton up there and have Bastian play 3/4C.

Taking out Nylander and replacing with a 32 point player is an improvement?

Points aren't everything. I've hashed out the argument for Tomasino in this thread already. He was a top 10 defensive forward in the NHL this year.

I didn't watch much of Hayton this year. How did he look?

I've literally never watched him outside of the world juniors. Couldn't pay me to watch a Coyotes game. I'm just looking at his underlying numbers.

 

[Americanadian]

Cap space that won't get you 30 goals and 80 points. Tomasino is good but nowhere near the level of Nylander, at least yet.

If you get ~15 goals/40 points (conservative guess) out of Tomasino in the top 6 you're only looking at replacing 20 goals/40 points. When you consider the difference in defense it may be worth the trade off. You can also find 20 goals/40 points with 6M in cap space quite easily. The Leafs would still be 6th in the NHL in goals if you removed 20 goals from last years total.

 

[LeafSteel]

Guess you missed the travel restrictions that were lifted yesterday. You know longer need to be vaccinated to enter or leave Canada

Guess you missed the majority of his post, relating to the character of the player in question.

 

[SprDaVE]

If you get ~15 goals/40 points (conservative guess) out of Tomasino in the top 6 you're only looking at replacing 20 goals/40 points. When you consider the difference in defense it may be worth the trade off. You can also find 20 goals/40 points with 6M in cap space quite easily. The Leafs would still be 6th in the NHL in goals if you removed 20 goals from last years total.

Quantity doesn't replace quality. Tomasino would be quite the downgrade and that other player will need to be excellent and a lot better than a 40 point player.

Regardless, my point is that Nylander isn't getting traded for a lot of reasons. Next off-season? We'll see.

 

[ToneDog]

Quantity doesn't replace quality. Tomasino would be quite the downgrade and that other player will need to be excellent and a lot better than a 40 point player.

Regardless, my point is that Nylander isn't getting traded for a lot of reasons. Next off-season? We'll see.

Odds are Nylander is not moved but if you did the trick is to double dip by replacing him with a cheaper UFA like Nuchuskin IMO.