Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline

[Martin Skoula]

I like Muzzin as much as the next guy but let's be real, the odds are against him playing a full playoff series let alone a full season at this point. You can't have a core piece with his cap hit if he's going to be in and out of the lineup like he is. It's handfuls of games throughout the season, at least if it was a Kucherov situation with a defined recovery time we could use his cap on a replacement D.

Every injury it's going to take longer and longer to shake the rust off, so it's the games missed + the 5-10 games getting back up to speed.

 

[aingefan]

Which two of the 8D we have would sit on a game to game basis? Lilly and Sandin need
more opportunities not more insulation. If you bring back lyub & Gio I think you have to look at holl & muzz being shopped.
Unless you think one of Sandin or liljegren are traded

I’m mostly thinking Muzz returning to health and form is a low odd event, and I just can’t see him being traded. So, it’s more 7 D for six spots. Injury replacement, maintenance days.

 

[TheShape]

I low key wanted Muzzin exposed at the expansion draft, signs of decline were creeping in. I’m not at all against moving him, but I don’t really hold my breath when it comes to players who have full control over their destination.

 

[ToneDog]

I low key wanted Muzzin exposed at the expansion draft, signs of decline were creeping in. I’m not at all against moving him, but I don’t really hold my breath when it comes to players who have full control over their destination.

Not sure you can expose players with NMC.

 

[LeafChief]

Not sure you can expose players with NMC.

His NMC kicked in after the expansion draft from what I recall.

 

[ToneDog]

His NMC kicked in after the expansion draft from what I recall.

Cap friendly says "Jake Muzzin signed a 4 year, $22,500,000 contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Feb. 24, 2020." and shows he had a NMC in 2020-21 and NTC in 2021-22. If the NMC was not applicable, guessing the NTC kicked in, in which case he could have been exposed.

 

[LeafChief]

Cap friendly says "Jake Muzzin signed a 4 year, $22,500,000 contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Feb. 24, 2020." and shows he had a NMC in 2020-21 and NTC in 2021-22. If the NMC was not applicable, guessing the NTC kicked in, in which case he could have been exposed.

Yup - I believe Brodie's contract was structured similarly to give the Leafs as much flexibility at the expansion draft as possible.

 

[Cor]

Muzzin is still a good player. A rough patch and injuries made it a tough year but we're far away from a situation to need to buy him out... not even close to that. There will be a team with interest in a veteran like that anyway if there was a trade route option. I think the Leafs want to keep him though... and they should.

I agree with you. Here is once again one of my Muzzin-truth posts lmao

Jake Muzzin doesn't even have a buy out type of contract. We only save 1.3M this year and next, with a 667K cap hit the following two years. Aside from it not being a solution anyway, you're right. Discussion of buying out Muzzin is EXTREMELY premature. He's had a couple of concussions this year, which sucks, and would concern some teams, however his play has still been at a strong level.

People are comparing his play to last year, when he was legitimately among the best d-men in terms of defensive impacts, when that was the outlier season. His impacts this season have been, about normal for Muzzin.

Now, the results are obviously lower, his GF% at EV is around 44%. Not good. However, that is mainly PDO driven. As a Leaf, removing this year, the average Muzzin on-ice sh% has been 9.62%. sv% at .911. This year? 8.21 and .897. Significant differences.

Here's another way to show it;
First two seasons with us, his xGF% was 52.75%
Last season, it was 56.69% (!!!)
This season? 52.49%. Back to normal levels for Muzzin.

I also wanted to look into his usage, and found out this season was actually his most used in terms of DSF%, and significantly higher than last season.
This season - 34.22
Last season - 31.23
First two seasons - 33.69

Now here's the issue the Leafs are in; Rielly, Sandin, Muzzin are currently slated to be our LHD next season. Giordano wanted to come here, and will likely want to extend with us, and the Leafs will most likely want that as well, given his fit so far, especially with Liljegren.

The path of least resistance is obviously not bringing Gio back, and running with the other 3 LHD. Is that the correct decision? I am a bit torn. The idea of getting Gio in the 2-3M range and on a year to year, instead of Muzzin's 5.6M for two years guaranteed, obviously provides obvious upside. If Gio wants more money, or term, then it becomes less desirable. The other factor, is there a team Jake Muzzin would be willing to go to, that wants him, and is willing to give up a decent asset or two from him?

The biggest question - does Jake Muzzin want to leave at all. He cant shut this down quickly if there is no where else he wants to go.

Regardless, I think the aim is for our defense to look like this next season;

Rielly - Lyubushkin
Muzzin/Gio - Liljegren
Sandin - Brodie

 

[SprDaVE]

I agree with you. Here is once again one of my Muzzin-truth posts lmao

Jake Muzzin doesn't even have a buy out type of contract. We only save 1.3M this year and next, with a 667K cap hit the following two years. Aside from it not being a solution anyway, you're right. Discussion of buying out Muzzin is EXTREMELY premature. He's had a couple of concussions this year, which sucks, and would concern some teams, however his play has still been at a strong level.

People are comparing his play to last year, when he was legitimately among the best d-men in terms of defensive impacts, when that was the outlier season. His impacts this season have been, about normal for Muzzin.

Now, the results are obviously lower, his GF% at EV is around 44%. Not good. However, that is mainly PDO driven. As a Leaf, removing this year, the average Muzzin on-ice sh% has been 9.62%. sv% at .911. This year? 8.21 and .897. Significant differences.

Here's another way to show it;
First two seasons with us, his xGF% was 52.75%
Last season, it was 56.69% (!!!)
This season? 52.49%. Back to normal levels for Muzzin.

I also wanted to look into his usage, and found out this season was actually his most used in terms of DSF%, and significantly higher than last season.
This season - 34.22
Last season - 31.23
First two seasons - 33.69

Now here's the issue the Leafs are in; Rielly, Sandin, Muzzin are currently slated to be our LHD next season. Giordano wanted to come here, and will likely want to extend with us, and the Leafs will most likely want that as well, given his fit so far, especially with Liljegren.

The path of least resistance is obviously not bringing Gio back, and running with the other 3 LHD. Is that the correct decision? I am a bit torn. The idea of getting Gio in the 2-3M range and on a year to year, instead of Muzzin's 5.6M for two years guaranteed, obviously provides obvious upside. If Gio wants more money, or term, then it becomes less desirable. The other factor, is there a team Jake Muzzin would be willing to go to, that wants him, and is willing to give up a decent asset or two from him?

The biggest question - does Jake Muzzin want to leave at all. He cant shut this down quickly if there is no where else he wants to go.

Regardless, I think the aim is for our defense to look like this next season;

Rielly - Lyubushkin
Muzzin/Gio - Liljegren
Sandin - Brodie

The guy is going to be 39 years old in October. He's still good and he seems like a player that can easily play well into his 40s at this rate, but seems really crazy to dump Muzzin and expect Giordano to take over some tough minutes going forward. I think Giordanos wheels are about to pop and we'll see his decline off a cliff in the near future.

Muzzin hasn't been great this season compared to what we're used to seeing but I think players go through highs and lows. Never get too high on a player, never get too low. I'm not saying Muzzin can't be traded in the right circumstance but it would have to be a good deal because he's nowhere near dump levels. Fans are way to quick to dump defensemen around here.

If Giordano is extended, the goal should be keeping the current defensive core intact as much as possible. Defensive depth is key. We've all seen what a couple injuries can do to your depth. I would personally let Boosch go before anyone else, but I can see the appeal for trading Holl and keeping Lyubushkin at a cheaper cap hit.

This would be the defensive depth. Sandin can play RD.

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Gio - Holl
Sandin - Lyubushkin

 

[Jozay]

Muzzin is outta here if they can move him. Bring back Gio, hopefully at a discounted price for the third pair. Pretty sure Sandin will be ready to graduate into a full time top 4 role next year.

Biggest thing is getting Muzzin to waive his NTC.

 

[Fogelhund]

..and Muzzin will come back healthy, and back to his usual self, and everyone will love him. But, we will always have people with a collective memory of a gnat, and no patience, trying to move whomever had a bad three games in a row.

 

[Americanadian]

The only place Muzzin would accept a trade is probably LAK and they could use him. Edler and Maata are both on expiring deals. Lots of young RHD ready to play (Durzi, Spence, Clarke) that could use a steady partner in Muzzin.

 

[LeafChief]

I'd be surprised if Muzzin isn't back next year (unless he retires). I expet Giordano to be here next season as well.

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Sandin
Giordano - Liljegren

Sandin shifts to RHD. Holl is traded to recover some picks at the draft. Maybe Lyubushkin or someone like Subban around 1 mill AAV to give guys some rest every once in a while.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'd be surprised if Muzzin isn't back next year (unless he retires). I expet Giordano to be here next season as well.

If anything, I think it is more likely that Holl is traded this year and they use Sandin at RD with Giordano (or the other way around) on the bottom pairing.

Maybe they can re-sign Lyubushkin for a reasonable price, or they just bring in some other high end #7 RD who can give Giordano/Muzzin some rest during the season (or come in for injuries) on top of some quality depth in the AHL (mostly a pair of higher end RD).

 

[LeafChief]

If anything, I think it is more likely that Holl is traded this year and they use Sandin at RD with Giordano (or the other way around) on the bottom pairing.

Maybe they can re-sign Lyubushkin for a reasonable price, or they just bring in some other high end #7 RD who can give Giordano/Muzzin some rest during the season (or come in for injuries) on top of some quality depth in the AHL (mostly a pair of higher end RD).

I ended up editing my post and looks like we're on the same page.

 

[Americanadian]

If Muzzin and Giordano are in next years plans there is no reason to sit Sandin and forcing him to RD has never worked before. He would be a valuable trade piece. Mercer would be a great trade target. NJD have their 1-2C for the next 10 years in Hughes/Hischier and Mcleod can play 3C if they trade Zacha this off season. Sandin would slot in well on their left side with Ty Smith having a bad start to the NHL and Kevin Bahl not yet making the jump.

 

[MarMarSab3]

If Muzzin and Giordano are in next years plans there is no reason to sit Sandin and forcing him to RD has never worked before. He would be a valuable trade piece. Mercer would be a great trade target. NJD have their 1-2C for the next 10 years in Hughes/Hischier and Mcleod can play 3C if they trade Zacha this off season. Sandin would slot in well on their left side with Ty Smith having a bad start to the NHL and Kevin Bahl not yet making the jump.

Our thoughts are very similar, I agree that a young D for Young C would be a great trade, Dawson is looking very good. Yesterday I proposed Aatu Raty as a target

 

[TMLAM34]

A center wouldn’t be a bad idea but with Matthews and Tavares here for the foreseeable future, why not try to target a young stud goaltender like Knight? Buyout or trade Mrazek. Re-sign Campbell and run with Knight and Campbell.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I doubt Muzzin is traded until 2023 and he certainly won't be waived because we'd carry a 4.5 cap hit with him in the minors. Maybe he LTIRetires, but I wouldn't count on that yet.

 

[bossram]

I would suspect that next season one of Holl or Lyubushkin are gone. I don't really think Dubas will move Muzzin, and he clearly has intentions to bring back Giordano.

Having 7 NHL calibre defensemen isn't a bad thing. Injuries will happen, and it puts them in a position to "load manage" Muzzin and Giordano so they don't break down.

 

[Martin Skoula]

..and Muzzin will come back healthy, and back to his usual self, and everyone will love him. But, we will always have people with a collective memory of a gnat, and no patience, trying to move whomever had a bad three games in a row.

Ok great he comes back healthy and we all love him. How many games does that last? What's his longest stretch of healthy games with us? I don't think he's been healthy for a full playoff series yet and his injuries are the kind that get worse and harder to recover from with each consecutive one.

He either keeps playing his physical game and putting himself at risk, or he stops playing physical and neuters his main strengths. I don't really see a way out of this other than ignoring the problem until he's forced on LTIRetirement which seems like a bad outcome for everyone.

 

[Ashdown2]

I would suspect that next season one of Holl or Lyubushkin are gone. I don't really think Dubas will move Muzzin, and he clearly has intentions to bring back Giordano.

Having 7 NHL calibre defensemen isn't a bad thing. Injuries will happen, and it puts them in a position to "load manage" Muzzin and Giordano so they don't break down.

i think its the opposite ... muzzin will be traded to probably the west coast
i would say holl is a 50-50 based on if they can get an upgrade in the offseason, either way im not to worried, sandin and holl were dominant this year on the third pair

 

[TheShape]

If Muzzin and Giordano are in next years plans there is no reason to sit Sandin and forcing him to RD has never worked before. He would be a valuable trade piece. Mercer would be a great trade target. NJD have their 1-2C for the next 10 years in Hughes/Hischier and Mcleod can play 3C if they trade Zacha this off season. Sandin would slot in well on their left side with Ty Smith having a bad start to the NHL and Kevin Bahl not yet making the jump.

I agree, something along these lines, a centre of close age coming back the other way. I’m not saying I want to trade Sandin, but the LD side is set next season (Gio will stay) and he and Lilly are too good to be rotating. Holl should go either way, he’s simply too expensive going forward as a #6.

I think Muzzin will be shipped out to LA most likely, but it’s a year premature.

 

[LeafParade]

Didn't Giordano play on the right side in Seattle?

I think Muzzin gets traded in 2023 so its only kind of awkward for one year.

I might do...
Reilly-Brodie
Muzzin-Giordano
Sandin-Lilly

Basically trade Holl and give his salary to Giordano.

 

[Cor]

Here is an armchair GM I did: TOR Off-Season - Keeping Muzzin - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Tried to keep all 7D, trading Justin Holl. I think it's likely what happens next year. Will be awkward with playing time with everyone is healthy, but when you factor in likely injuries, everyone will get plenty of natural playing time. (don't worry about the pairings)

I have a hunch this is Spezza's last year. Perhaps even Simmonds as well, though I kept him around as an extra. There were a lot of talk the Leafs wanted to strengthen the fourth line, and I feel like that will continue in the off-season. Maybe I am wrong. I think Robertson, Steeves and Blackwell can be a really good high energy, high tempo bottom 6 line, to go along with our defensive line.

Goalies included Campbell coming back, Mrazek being bought out, and the Leafs signing Lankinen (who seems like someone the current management would target).

A lot of this is bringing back the existing roster. Trading some pieces for futures, and giving internals options a shot.

Something Tampa Bay does well is trade some pieces in the off-season, give internal options a shot, and then they make a splash or two at the deadline to fill in weak spots. I think the Leafs need to take a similar strategy this off-season