Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline

[SprDaVE]

I'd expect Gio to sign, provided he has an enjoyable experience with the team. I can see a 1-2 year deal.

Sandin/Lily will be dirt cheap to sign. Neither has big offensive numbers and they lack arbitration rights

Yeah when I see people giving Liljegren and Sandin 3M+ on bridge contracts, it makes me wince. I don't know how they are getting that much on a 1-2 year contract.

At most, Sandin and Liljegren will be between 1.25M and 2M on a bridge contract. There's nothing that suggests they'll get more. They can get 3M+ if you get into the 4+ year contracts, depending on whatever.

Lyub getting 4M+ is also awful. He's AT MOST he's a 2M defenseman with some term. Let's pump the brakes.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yeah when I see people giving Liljegren and Sandin 3M+ on bridge contracts, it makes me wince. I don't know how they are getting that much on a 1-2 year contract.

At most, Sandin and Liljegren will be between 1.25M and 2M on a bridge contract. There's nothing that suggests they'll get more. They can get 3M+ if you get into the 4+ year contracts, depending on whatever.

Lyub getting 4M+ is also awful. He's AT MOST he's a 2M defenseman with some term. Let's pump the brakes.

Giordano is definitely a 1 year contract only, if he wants 2+ years, byeeee

Sandin ant Liljegren I have at 900-1.5M on 2 year deals.

Lybushkin I would be willing to go like 1.75-2M on a 1-2 year deal.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah when I see people giving Liljegren and Sandin 3M+ on bridge contracts, it makes me wince. I don't know how they are getting that much on a 1-2 year contract.

At most, Sandin and Liljegren will be between 1.25M and 2M on a bridge contract. There's nothing that suggests they'll get more. They can get 3M+ if you get into the 4+ year contracts, depending on whatever.

Lyub getting 4M+ is also awful. He's AT MOST he's a 2M defenseman with some term. Let's pump the brakes.

I think those are total values, not AAV.

It better be, or else it definitely does not make sense.

 

[Avilaj07]

Off Season moves to create space.

Trade Kerfoot for picks
Trade Holl for picks
Trade Mrazek for pick

 

[VanW27]

Off Season moves to create space.

Trade Kerfoot for picks
Trade Holl for picks
Trade Mrazek for pick

I get he's become a whipping boy but I'm not really sure how moving Holl's 2 million is making space, I mean where are you going to find a equal or better Dman for less?

Plus he's been excellent anytime he's been away from the trainwreck that his this year's Jake Muzzin. Even ignoring just how bad he has been, moving on from Muzzin is the most logical option to gain space. 1 he actually has a significant cap at 5.625, and 2 if you are bringing back Giordano you have Rielly, Gio, Sandin as your LD (with Brodie as an option).

You move Holl and the RD is Brodie, Lily, ??? Resign Bush, trade?, either way hard to find an option there that saves you much on 2mill Holl. As much as I like Lily I think you need something more than a bargain bin signing to fill that final RD spot.

 

[Avilaj07]

I get he's become a whipping boy but I'm not really sure how moving Holl's 2 million is making space, I mean where are you going to find a equal or better Dman for less?

Plus he's been excellent anytime he's been away from the trainwreck that his this year's Jake Muzzin. Even ignoring just how bad he has been, moving on from Muzzin is the most logical option to gain space. 1 he actually has a significant cap at 5.625, and 2 if you are bringing back Giordano you have Rielly, Gio, Sandin as your LD (with Brodie as an option).

You move Holl and the RD is Brodie, Lily, ??? Resign Bush, trade?, either way hard to find an option there that saves you much on 2mill Holl. As much as I like Lily I think you need something more than a bargain bin signing to fill that final RD spot.

If you resign both Lyubushkin and Giordano, realistically, Holl is now your 7th or 8th defenseman, and you're not paying 2 million to someone who isn't going to be a regular. Not to mention, saying Holl has been excellent away from Muzzin is a pretty big overstatement. Has he been better, yes, excellent, definitely not. His decision making is very slow and he tends to hold onto pucks way to long which tends to keep us in our zone much longer then we have to.

Giordano and Liljegren have been a excellent pairing and would definitely look at keeping that pairing even next year. Rielly and Lyubushkin look great together as Lyubushkin brings that defensive minded partner for Rielly which he has always needed and gives Rielly that protection to be more aggressive offensively. That now leaves you with Sandin, Muzzin, and Brodie which I take all 3 over Holl easily. Muzzin has a NTC which I doubt he'd be willing to move considering he's near the end of his career and I doubt he would want to be moving his family away for 2 years considering he's from here.

Rielly-Lyubushkin
Giordano-Liljegren
Muzzin/Sandin-Brodie
Muzzin/Sandin

Moving Holl for picks allows you to use his 2 mill cap towards resigning both Giordano and Lyubushkin.

 

[zeke]

Yeah if Gio is re-upping for cheap then as much as I love him Muzz is the guy you move to make space.

Rielly-Brodie
Gio-Lilly
Sandin-Holl

Opens up a good $4m of capspace.

You can add a cheap vet like Boosh for pressbox depth if you want. And kids like Kokkonen Niemela Villeneuve may be banging on the door.

 

[ToneDog]

Off Season moves to create space.

Trade Kerfoot for picks
Trade Holl for picks
Trade Mrazek for pick

What NHL owner is going to take Mrazek and the $7.8m remaining on his contract and give you a pick ?? They won't even take him for free.

Marleau's 3rd year was bad but he was an iron man. Mrazek is a china doll.

 

[Cor]

Mrazek is an easy buyout in the summer.

 

[ToneDog]

Mrazek is an easy buyout in the summer.

I believe it will cost 2/3 of 7.8m (5.2m) to buy him out. What team is willing to pay that and absorb the cap hit and what will they want in return ?? Marleau cost us a 1st (Seth Jarvis) to dump $6.5m AAV for 1 year.

 

[Cor]

I believe it will cost 2/3 of 7.8m (5.2m) to buy him out. What team is willing to pay that and absorb the cap hit and what will they want in return ?? Marleau cost us a 1st (Seth Jarvis) to dump $6.5m AAV for 1 year.

Huh? We buy him out.

 

[VanW27]

If you resign both Lyubushkin and Giordano, realistically, Holl is now your 7th or 8th defenseman, and you're not paying 2 million to someone who isn't going to be a regular. Not to mention, saying Holl has been excellent away from Muzzin is a pretty big overstatement. Has he been better, yes, excellent, definitely not. His decision making is very slow and he tends to hold onto pucks way to long which tends to keep us in our zone much longer then we have to.

Giordano and Liljegren have been a excellent pairing and would definitely look at keeping that pairing even next year. Rielly and Lyubushkin look great together as Lyubushkin brings that defensive minded partner for Rielly which he has always needed and gives Rielly that protection to be more aggressive offensively. That now leaves you with Sandin, Muzzin, and Brodie which I take all 3 over Holl easily. Muzzin has a NTC which I doubt he'd be willing to move considering he's near the end of his career and I doubt he would want to be moving his family away for 2 years considering he's from here.

Rielly-Lyubushkin
Giordano-Liljegren
Muzzin/Sandin-Brodie
Muzzin/Sandin

Moving Holl for picks allows you to use his 2 mill cap towards resigning both Giordano and Lyubushkin.

Holl Stats, D pairs with minimum 50 minutes of play time together:
Dermott - Holl: GF% 100, xGF% 46.35 (only 53 minutes though)
Sandin - Holl: GF% 66.67, xGF% 51.95 (this and above are the two best on the team actually)
Brodie - Holl: GF% 54.55, xGF% 58.24 (same usage as the Muzzin - Holl pair)

Muzzin - Holl: GF% 41.46, xGF% 53.61
Muzzin - Brodie: GF% 42.86, xGF% 53.86
Muzzin - Lily: GF% 50.00, xGF% 47.84 (the only player Lily has an xGF% below 60% with)

The real results are terrible for Muzzin. Depending on you belief in xGF you can argue that Muzzin has underperformed his xGF% stats, but for me the eye test shows Muzzin xGF% is inflated by the teams puck control and the inability to quantify the extreme high quality chances he's giving up with frequent bad reads and poor neutral zone play.

All that said, I get the desire to replace Holl with Bush, it wouldn't be my personal choice but can see where people are coming from there - having a more physical and aggressive player in that role is reasonable. But that's not really 'saving cap' so to speak, you're just replacing Holl with Bush, I can't imagine you can resign him for much less, or less at all than 2 million. That's a more expensive D-core than we went into this season with, even if you have Gio signing for league min.

 

[SprDaVE]

I think the Leafs can find a taker for Mrazek. Buy out seems a lot more likely though because who the hell wants him after his hell year... but there's always a way to get something done.

Detroit, Chicago, Arizona, Buffalo and Ottawa are teams that could use some goaltending and have plenty of cap space.

One trade I have in mind with Chicago is something around Mrazek for Connolly.

 

[ToneDog]

Huh? We buy him out.

Sure but not sure that is what the Leafs prefer given it will cost them them cap space. We will see.

 

[ToneDog]

I think the Leafs can find a taker for Mrazek. Buy out seems a lot more likely though because who the hell wants him after his hell year... but there's always a way to get something done.

Detroit, Chicago, Arizona, Buffalo and Ottawa are teams that could use some goaltending and have plenty of cap space.

One trade I have in mind with Chicago is something around Mrazek for Connolly.

Not sure what Connelly's situation is but a "Seabrook" deal would probably be what the Leafs would be looking for.

 

[TheShape]

I think we can move Mrazek but that 3rd year he was given is a killer. His below average play is one thing, but the reoccurring injuries is another and makes him harder to trade.

Sandin/Liljegren sign for Dermott money would be my guess, something under 2m. Unless the pair want term like 5 years, but probably not in their best interest. I've wanted to move on from Muzzin from a while now, but I think we're stuck with him unfortunately.

Nylander is a value contract at the end of the day, but I'm thinking he is going to be the one moved this summer. He's not going to be playing with Matthews any time soon and he doesn't fit with Tavares, who is more of the problem imo but safe with his NMC.

I'd like to avoid buyouts at all costs, we're just finally getting out from Kessel's dead cap space.

 

[VanW27]

I believe it will cost 2/3 of 7.8m (5.2m) to buy him out. What team is willing to pay that and absorb the cap hit and what will they want in return ?? Marleau cost us a 1st (Seth Jarvis) to dump $6.5m AAV for 1 year.

Dead cap of 1.4333 over the next 4 years, but that saves you 2.767 next year, 2.967 the year after. Buyout is a possibility if they can't find someone to take him.

 

[ToneDog]

View attachment 525004

Dead cap of 1.4333 over the next 4 years, but that saves you 2.767 next year, 2.967 the year after. Buyout is a possibility if they can't find someone to take him.

Thanks for this. Worse than I thought. Can't see Leafs wanting to carry Dead cap space for 4 years when they are already up against it and are trying to win the SC.

 

[FlyingLeafus]

Muzzin has a NTC which I doubt he'd be willing to move considering he's near the end of his career and I doubt he would want to be moving his family away for 2 years considering he's from here.

It's a limited NTC (10 team list) and (Limited NTC starts next year) His salary is lower than his cap hit. If you can unload him to a team like Ottawa for any sort of value you do it 100%, no way should they have a 5.6M cap hit on the third pairing next year. Move him before he becomes a total anchor.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It's a limited NTC (10 team list) and his salary is lower than his cap hit. If you can unload him to a team like Ottawa for any sort of value you do it 100%, no way should they have a 5.6M cap hit on the third pairing next year. Move him before he becomes a total anchor.

It is a full NTC next year and he is not waiving it to go to Ottawa.

We may be able to move the last year of his deal, but he is almost 100% going to be here next year, and he is not really going to be a "3rd pairing" guy. He is still going to have more defensive responsibility than Sandin.

 

[Avilaj07]

It's a limited NTC (10 team list) and (Limited NTC starts next year) His salary is lower than his cap hit. If you can unload him to a team like Ottawa for any sort of value you do it 100%, no way should they have a 5.6M cap hit on the third pairing next year. Move him before he becomes a total anchor.

Like I've stated, Muzzin has a full NTC next year, and I highly doubt he's willing he's willing to move his family for the last 2 years of his career. Maybe, you're able to move him in the off season of 2023 since his contract becomes a limited NTC but there's probably a 0% chance he's moved this off season as much as I wish we could

 

[HEAVY DUTY]

View attachment 525004

Dead cap of 1.4333 over the next 4 years, but that saves you 2.767 next year, 2.967 the year after. Buyout is a possibility if they can't find someone to take him.

this is a bad idea. we can't have 1.4M tied up in dead cap space in the year Matthews is to become a UFA. I'd rather that 1.4M go to him rather than Mrazek.

Moving him in the summer along with a pick/prospect is the only option.

 

[FlyingLeafus]

It is a full NTC next year and he is not waiving it to go to Ottawa.

We may be able to move the last year of his deal, but he is almost 100% going to be here next year, and he is not really going to be a "3rd pairing" guy. He is still going to have more defensive responsibility than Sandin.

I don't doubt that he'll have more responsibility because of veteran status, but I do think the team is worse for it. He's starting to look cooked with all the injuries piling up. Obviously if he absolutely refuses to waive there's nothing to be done, but I would definitely try to push him out. His cap hit would be more useful elsewhere. Hopefully gets back to his old self but I'm skeptical.

 

[Buds17]

Thanks for this. Worse than I thought. Can't see Leafs wanting to carry Dead cap space for 4 years when they are already up against it and are trying to win the SC.

At worst, perhaps they retain no more than the amount that the buyout would account for over the two seasons that are left on Mrazek's contract in a trade which would hopefully allow them to return some kind of asset?

If it's at all feasible, I'd prefer a trade of Mrazek in which Toronto retains no more than the ~1.43 M amount per for the two seasons that are left on his contract. This would hopefully allow them to acquire some form of asset in return. Taking back a salary within that range seems fine too as a different scenario. Dead cap via buyout just feels like the worst outcome possible.

 

[Fogelhund]

It wouldn't shock me to see Mrazek sent to Robidas Island permanently, where his Cap hit will become irrelevant. His groin issues have just become too much for him, to ever become a useful NHL goalie again. Surely he'd agree to that, over a buyout..