GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART X

[stickty111]

Some cap cleared for Colorado

 

[Mickey Marner]

Colorado just cleared another 1.25 million. Must be another move coming for them.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Nico Sturm is not a bad pickup. May even be a better fit for COL than Jost. But that was a cap dump move.

 

[SprDaVE]

Some cap cleared for Colorado

A good ol' hockey trade.

This is what I see happening with Dermott.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Maybe, just maybe there are other issues too?

Maybe, maybe not. There’s definitely a goalie problem tho and it’s hard to make any determination what else is wrong with the clown show level netminding they’re getting

 

[Scion]

Both things can be true in that our goalies have been very bad and need to be much better but also that our defence turns the puck over quite a bit in their own zone and have a propensity of making some glaring mistakes that directly lead to goals.

Just have to look at last game. We end up losing on a pathetic goal from Hinostroza that should never go in. Mrazek gets all the blame and mostly justified but theres minimal talk of just how terrible of a giveaway Sandin made seconds before that turned the puck directly over to Hinostroza.

He went for a no look behind the back pass to where he thought Rielly would be. He could have chipped the puck up the boards and make a safe play but decided to throw it behind the net. Now you'd have to talk to the coaching staff to understand if that was a design play and Rielly didnt do his job of collapsing behind the net for an outlet pass or that was just Sandin deciding on his own to make that play and left Rielly totally confused.

Maybe if that defensive zone giveaway never happens, we win the game and Mrazek can finally start building back some confidence.

We are a team that has offensive control of the puck quite a bit and that will always be favourable to our defensive counting stats numbers. The problem is even at best you'd have the puck 60/40 and once the other team has control of the puck you need to be able to functionally defend for stretchs and do certain things defensively to consistantly stop attacks (clear front of net, break the cycle, not turn pucks over in own zone, block shots, forwards take hits to clear puck from zone).

We've played good defence for stretchs so the upside is there especially if Muzzin returns healthy but we've also looked very bad other times even when some of the counting stats say otherwise. Not every single scoring chance or high danger chance for/against is created equally and that's why you sometimes need to be careful when looking at single game advancted stats from these public sites.

Excellent post.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'll make two points.

1. Playing in front of bad goaltending is hard, if you've ever played in front of a bad goalie you'll know what I'm talking about. You run around trying to prevent what should be easy saves, you can't keep that up, you'll falter, get worn out, and give up more high quality chances again in your desperation to prevent any type of chance. Playing in front of a bad goalie makes you look worse than you are defensively, and not just because you give up more goals.

2. Bad goaltending doesn't completely take the blame off the defense, we have been consistently at the bottom for HDSV% for a number of years, with multiple goalies. I've said this many times, while our defensive metric are good there's no way to truly quantify just how high quality, the HD chances you give up are, and we give up too many HIGH-high danger scoring chances, we need to cut down on the rush chances against in particular.

That is actually interesting to explore.

In Keefe's first year: Campbell had a .844 HDSV% at ES in 6 games. Andersen had a .812.
In the Covid year: Andersen had a .803. Campbell had an .825.
This year: Andersen has an .844. Campbell has a .797 (.707 in 2022, .855 otherwise).

The top guy is usually in the .870 range for perspective.

It is a little bit tough to gauge because Keefe really has only had Andersen and Campbell (and briefly guys like Hutch, Mrazek, Sparks, etc.) as goalies. Sparks actually had a .833 HDSV%. Hutch had some good numbers and some bad. Andersen never really looked right in his last two years (whether that was just due to confidence or injury or whatever it may have been) which is evident by a lot more than just his HDSV% and didn't really affect Campbell.

Our HDSV%, at least before this collapse in 2022, was borderline top 10 in the time since Keefe has taken over (including Andersen's subpar numbers) and only marginally worse than Carolina's has been in the same timeframe. Slightly better than the Babcock teams, which were pushed by one really elite year by Andersen when he first got here and found themselves in the middle of the pack on average.

And then in CAR, Mrazek had up and down years as well. There were some years when Carolina was thrashed in HDSV%. Others where they were near the top of the league. Mrazek was actually the one consistent factor (i.e. he had a .820 when everyone else on his team was sub .800, and was always better than everyone else on his teams).

I think right now, the Leafs are a team that, if the goalie plays as well as the team in front of him, is somewhere in that .825 HDSV% range. Right in the middle of the league or slightly above there and not really that far away from the non-elite teams that are in the top 3-5. Room for improvement, but not a .720 HDSV% as we have been getting in 2022. If we want to really get places, however, we will need something similar to the .855 that Campbell was giving us earlier in the year. That is better than the defense has played, but at the same time, no goalie who has a .855+ HDSV% is there because they are just playing as well as the defense in front of them. The Leafs don't need much more than average goaltending right now because we are scoring in bunches, but in the playoffs, every goalie needs to play better than their average and the defense in front of them if you want to win (unless the goalie on the other end completely sucks).

 

[LeafChief]

Jost had so much promise. Really did not live up to the hype.

 

[Scion]

He has never had good possession numbers, good offensive numbers, or really good numbers in anything except hitting.

If only there was more to hockey that those numbers don't capture...

 

[stickty111]

We aren't standing pat at this deadline nor should we. Too much is riding on this season and Dubas's job is on the line. It doesn't mesn he will empty the farm but can make a significant move.

 

[thusk]

Right when the goalies started posting 880’s. Maybe if they weren’t concerned about every bouncing puck or bad angle shot going in they’d be less concerned about pressing to pot 5 a game

But how many uncover or defensive missed play did?

Yes its easy blame hockey because how stats just just.look as the exemple i gave on my last post. When you cant stop anything defensive side, its hard for a goalie to stay confident about is own team. So you start to cheat for the pass because toronto cant stop any of those pass.

Yes in third mrazek allowed a weak goal but how many goal he saved first 40 minutes? Minimum 3 or 4 goal

 

[stickty111]

Well isn't this interesting. It's rushing but Knies has the style to play in the NHL today. Abruzzese with his hockey IQ

 

[Scion]

Maybe, maybe not. There’s definitely a goalie problem tho and it’s hard to make any determination what else is wrong with the clown show level netminding they’re getting

People like this cannot be reasoned with.

 

[kb]

When you have left the drain plug on your boat open and launch it, do you find more/stronger/fitter people to bail the boat each time you go out, or do you try replacing the drain plug first?

Fix the goalies first and you mostly fix the D.

 

[Fogelhund]

They have been issues for years.

If you are talking about those posters, who only post when things aren't going well... I agree.

 

[Buds17]

Good hockey trade between divisional rivals. Colorado gets cap space and maybe the slight improvement for now; Minnesota gets a longer term player with potentially more in the way of upside.

 

[stickty111]

If you are talking about those posters, who only post when things aren't going well... I agree.

A 7-0 game 23 loss will have more replies than us winning a playoff series.

 

[Fogelhund]

A 7-0 game 23 loss will have more replies than us winning a playoff series.

Or the Cup.

 

[McSnypsky]

He has never had good possession numbers, good offensive numbers, or really good numbers in anything except hitting.

If he can do what Komarov did pre-concussion maybe not a bad thing? I like that Hathaway guy from the Caps too just for that purpose and they need a Goalie

 

[LeafChief]

Even just getting .900 goaltending at this point would fix A LOT of the problem. The Leafs record since Jan 1 is incredibly impressive considering the house league level of goaltending they've gotten.

Some have mentioned that Campbell really fell off after gettting rocked by Foligno in Minnesota. If he can come back healthy and play up to what he had shown, it will really shore up some the issues.

 

[stickty111]

When you have left the drain plug on your boat open and launch it, do you find more/stronger/fitter people to bail the boat each time you go out, or do you try replacing the drain plug first?

Fix the goalies first and you mostly fix the D.

Like look at the Carlyle Leafs, those teams were one of the worst defensive teams in league history, yet Reimer in the shortened season bailed them out and then Bernier the first year. We aren't even asking our goalies to do that. Do only 20% of that and this team can go far.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

When you have left the drain plug on your boat open and launch it, do you find more/stronger/fitter people to bail the boat each time you go out, or do you try replacing the drain plug first?

Fix the goalies first and you mostly fix the D.

To be fair this analogy only works if you're saying we've been playing with an empty net (insert goalie roasts here). Then yes you'd ignore everything and bring in any goalie you can find just to at least get any save.

When it's a fraction of goaltending (majority) and a fraction of D, this analogy doesn't work.

 

[stickty111]

Or the Cup.

Lol thats true as well. Even with that, someone will complain about a turnover in the 9 minute mark in the 2nd period

 

[Scion]

If you are talking about those posters, who only post when things aren't going well... I agree.

Let's be real we are Leaf's fans, it's almost never going well.

 

[Scion]

A 7-0 game 23 loss will have more replies than us winning a playoff series.

Negative events typically trigger a stronger response than positive ones. This is a common psychological response among all humans in various areas, it is not exclusive to the Leafs.