GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART X

[Scion]

Pittsburgh was acceptable on the back end and won b2b cups. More than one way to skin a cat.
Rielly brodie
Muzzin holl
Sandin boosh
Is good enough when that group is playing to expectations to win series with adequate goaltending and the offence playing to expectations, but that’s always going to be the case with every team. Only one team wins in the end and has it all come together for them.

LOL at comparing this Leafs team to those Pittsburgh teams. We couldn't hold their jock straps from a competitive standpoint.

 

[stickty111]

We don't hit. We don't block. We don't clear the net. We turn it over like crazy in our own zone. Leafs aren't going to be skating circles keeping the puck away from their zone like they do against our recent weak opponents (who were still able to expose these weaknesses even though it was mainly bad goaltending and we limited their shots well because they can't keep up with our possession game).

"Every team looks bad when hemmed in" is a bit of a cop out statement no? I'll use that then for sake of argument and agree, and change it to Leafs are relatively the worst out of all the playoff teams that look bad when hemmed in. What happens when the CF is more 50/50 against Tampa or Carolina? We're going to get smoked if this is the defence we get. Only needing average goaltending theory doesn't hold.

You just explained every team. Lets not make excuses for awful goaltending. Also the first statememt is you making stuff up to suit a narrative
It's really annoying. Any other team with these issues, and the fans would say goaltending is awful. When it's the Leafs, our fans say it's all the defence's fault.

 

[Leaffan1991]

Reasonably structured until hemmed in the zone. Then what? We're going up against equals in the playoffs we're not going to have the luxury of our possession game keeping the puck away from the net/zone.

"Period end of statement" on a team that coughs it up the most in their back end out of all playoff teams and is the softest playoff team when it comes to stopping cycles and clearing the crease? Our own GM doesn't even agree with you there. I mean if you have the energy to sell that thought go ahead, but I don't think people are buying that anymore at this point.

Someone gets it

 

[stickty111]

Pittsburgh was acceptable on the back end and won b2b cups. More than one way to skin a cat.
Rielly brodie
Muzzin holl
Sandin boosh
Is good enough when that group is playing to expectations to win series with adequate goaltending and the offence playing to expectations, but that’s always going to be the case with every team. Only one team wins in the end and has it all come together for them.

As much as people like to pretend every other good team is amazing defensively, they aren't. Pittsburgh won because of their forward group and goaltending. Even Tampa isn't elite defensively.

 

[Shooter2x]

You just explained every team. Lets not make excuses for awful goaltending. Also the first statememt is you making stuff up to suit a narrative
It's really annoying. Any other team with these issues, and the fans would say goaltending is awful. When it's the Leafs, our fans say it's all the defence's fault.

Point out what I made up to suit a narrative.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Dude, look past the bad goaltending. How about the weak play in front of the net, the turnovers at the blueline, the way the defense is getting crushed off the rush and giving up tips in high danger areas. These are issues that extend way beyond our goaltending.

They’re actually middle of the pack as far as deflected and tipped goals as far as the other playoff teams go. I see them, I watch every game and a bunch of other teams too being out west. They’re not a physical and imposing team but they don’t need to be. They need to be the best version of themselves when it matters most, and that starts and ends witn getting stops from the goaltending

 

[Nylanderthal]

LOL at comparing this Leafs team to those Pittsburgh teams. We couldn't hold their jock straps from a competitive standpoint.

I guess, until they win you can keep hiding behind saying that, but until pitts won the same shit was said about them…

 

[Leaffan1991]

Mayfield seems like the obvious player here. One more year super cheap cap hit, plays top 4 RHD big strong and good defensively

 

[Nylanderthal]

Mayfield seems like the obvious player here. One more year super cheap cap hit, plays top 4 RHD big strong and good defensively

Mayfield + Varly for mrazek + Dermott + futures to make Lou say yes. Offer jack a 1-2 year show me deal for between what he makes now & mrazek money.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Right when the goalies started posting 880’s. Maybe if they weren’t concerned about every bouncing puck or bad angle shot going in they’d be less concerned about pressing to pot 5 a game

It is not even about pressing to score. It is about pressing to make sure that the other team doesn't even get weak shots on net, because they are going in far more often than they should.

You start chasing spots that you don't mind players shooting from, then you start leaving holes in areas that you don't want them to shoot.

And even then, the Leafs are still near the top of every defensive metric at both ES and on the PK (where they are actually getting a reasonable number of saves) and it should not come as a surprise that we are 5th in the NHL on the PK this year (3rd in 2022).

Yet all of those metrics are misleading and inaccurate to the point where, despite all of them being good in 2022, the defense is the main reason why the team has a .72 ES HDSV%, a .880 ES SV%, and are giving up like 1.2 more ES goals per game than expected. The lowest ES HDSV% over the course of an entire season over the last 5 years is almost .76, and the lowest ES SV% is .892. So our defense must be REALLY bad if we are worse than that.

 

[Griffin76]

I think they tried to sign MacEwen in the past when he was a UFA coming out of the QMJHL too.

Yes it was between Toronto and Vancouver. I think I read in the local newspaper or maybe an interview he gave on the Island (PEI) that he chose Vancouver because he had a better chance to crack their lineup.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Jack Campbell had a .940% with the Leafs posting middling defensive xGA totals. He definitely covered alot of the Leafs shortfalls in November.

Campbell had a 940 for like a two week span and during that time they were definitely not middling in xga. This team was very good in xga for a long run this season.
November is the only month all season they’ve gotten 900+ sv for the month.

 

[Havoc]

You just explained every team. Lets not make excuses for awful goaltending. Also the first statememt is you making stuff up to suit a narrative
It's really annoying. Any other team with these issues, and the fans would say goaltending is awful. When it's the Leafs, our fans say it's all the defence's fault.

Leafs are near bottom of the league in hits, blocks, defensive zone give aways (wrong end of the bottom) and are horrible at clearing the net and stopping cycles.

I wish it wasn't true but it's not stuff open for debate. Hard to find common ground when stating even basic facts leads to someone calling you annoying don't you think?

 

[Nylanderthal]

Leafs are near bottom of the league in hits, blocks, defensive zone give aways (wrong end of the bottom) and are horrible at clearing the net and stopping cycles.

I wish it wasn't true but it's not stuff open for debate. Hard to find common ground when stating even basic facts leads to someone calling you annoying don't you think?

Just to pick apart one part of your highly flawed argument…
Teams with lower blocked shot totals: Boston Calgary St. Louis & Carolina. Toronto is 7th last, 8th, 9th 10th and 11th are Florida, Tampa, Minnesota and Nashville.

 

[dubplatepressure]

I'd love to know how it's brutal. It might be off a bit here but what more could they get for a pending UFA not exactly setting the world on fire. A 1st and a good prospect for Lindholm is pretty much what the pundits all agree would be the high bar. If they can get more than that for him... I applaud them. Are you expecting top prospects and multiple first round picks?

Dermott for Comtois to me is ok, especially with rumours that Comtois wants to move on, or Anaheim is trying to find him a new home. I don't think their value is that much far apart. When you add all the value together it's at least close to the ballpark it'll take. But maybe I'm wrong and you can enlighten my bad value perception.

My opinion only - Dermott for Comtois is insufficient, and Kokkonen isn't moving the needle enough to grab Lindholm. I think it's safe to say in value terms Lindholm > Manson, and Helleson > Kokkonen. So even if Helleson + 2nd was equal to Kokkonen + 1st, we're assuming we can get Lindholm for Manson value, which IMO we cannot - we will be outbid. And then come back to Dermott vs Comtois, I just don't see how Anaheim decides to sell Comtois for nothing (a #6/7) when they are very likely to get better elsewhere.

 

[Fogelhund]

Dude, look past the bad goaltending. How about the weak play in front of the net, the turnovers at the blueline, the way the defense is getting crushed off the rush and giving up tips in high danger areas. These are issues that extend way beyond our goaltending.

All the items you mention, have only become major issues since the goaltending went away. Since the team confidence went away.

As previously mentioned, yes we aren’t perfect, nobody is, and getting heavier has always been a necessity.

I’ve said this time and again, but it’s funny that as soon as there is a bad streak, a whole bunch of posters come out of the wood work. When things go well, they disappear. Interesting!!!

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Exactly. The flaws in goaltending are so bad, that it's making everything else look worse right now. With average goaltending, we are neck and neck with Florida in points, and in line to take the division, maybe just a few points off the President's trophy. All teams could use improving, even President's Trophy leader, Colorado just made a move to improve their D. Those who know the team the most, see the flaws the most. Yes, we could improve, but things aren't as bad as they seem right now.

While I understand that premise you can't really just neglect the goalies. Florida spend like 2 to 3 times the amount on goalies than Toronto does. They would be able to add some significant additional pieces if they were spending near league minimum on goalies like the leafs are. You get what you pay for as the old saying goes. Leafs went cheap on goalies and so got cheap goaltending

 

[Mickey Marner]

I hope we don't trade for Chiarot. This team needs a long-term material upgrade on D. Chiarot, like Manson, is the #4/5 you trade for to complement Makar/Toews/Girard.

 

[SprDaVE]

My opinion only - Dermott for Comtois is insufficient, and Kokkonen isn't moving the needle enough to grab Lindholm. I think it's safe to say in value terms Lindholm > Manson, and Helleson > Kokkonen. So even if Helleson + 2nd was equal to Kokkonen + 1st, we're assuming we can get Lindholm for Manson value, which IMO we cannot - we will be outbid. And then come back to Dermott vs Comtois, I just don't see how Anaheim decides to sell Comtois for nothing (a #6/7) when they are very likely to get better elsewhere.

I think that you can swap Kokkonen for Hirvonen to make it better if thats what it takes. To be honest, you can swap out the prospect with any of the prospects we have outside of the obvious ones (Knies, Niemela, Robertson, Abruzzese and Amirov).

I don't know why Comtois, the winger, has better value than Dermott, the defenseman. I think that Dermott being cheaper and capable probably makes it palatable for a team like losing 2 defenseman in the next few weeks. Comtois has 2 goals in 36 games this season. If Comtois was a Leaf, I don't think people would be in rush to defend how great he is. Change of scenery trade for both players, we end up with the more expensive one.

Trading Comtois and Lindholm in separate trades isn't going to return better than what I think I offered.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I hope we don't trade for Chiarot. This team needs a long-term material upgrade on D. Chiarot, like Manson, is the #4/5 you trade for to complement Makar/Toews/Girard.

Agreed. I'm at the stage where I dont think they should trade anything above a 3rd round pick in value for rentals if there isn't a significant goalie add. No way the leafs get out of the first round with the current level of goaltending. Hell they might even get swpet....

 

[ToneDog]

Agreed. I'm at the stage where I dont think they should trade anything above a 3rd round pick in value for rentals if there isn't a significant goalie add. No way the leafs get out of the first round with the current level of goaltending. Hell they might even get swpet....

Which begs the question, how the hell can a team with 16,34,44,91 and 88 get swept ?? Surly heads will roll if they are swept.

 

[hockeywiz542]

The questions seem to be growing for Leafs GM Kyle Dubas as the trade deadline nears

Goaltending? Defence? Dubas may have some difficult choices.

www.thestar.com

It’s going to be an interesting week for the Maple Leafs. With fewer than seven days until the NHL trade deadline — and with the Leafs having gone 2-4-1 against non-playoff teams since Feb. 26 — they are facing questions with their goaltending and defence that need answering.

General manager Kyle Dubas will have an expected $3.7 million (U.S.) in cap space available, which will limit what he can do before the March 21 deadline.

Goaltending

One name that keeps surfacing is veteran Marc-André Fleury. It is believed Toronto would have to surrender a first-round draft pick and prospects to land Fleury, and they would likely need Chicago to retain some of his salary (he has about $1.6-million left on his annual $7-million cap hit). It’s a steep price to pay for a 37-year-old whose numbers (2.92 goals-against average, 28th in the NHL, and .908 save percentage, 24th) aren’t that different from Jack Campbell and Petr Mrázek.

The Leafs have traded away most of their picks in this year’s draft, though they still have their first-rounder, but the Blackhawks might be more interested in next year. A report Monday said NHL GMs are favouring 2023 first-round picks because they believe the top end of that draft will be deeper.

Dallas’s Braden Holtby has been mentioned in trade talk, and he may get the start when the Stars are in Toronto on Tuesday. But the Stars’ Anton Khudobin reportedly was slated to have hip surgery Monday, meaning Dallas might not have the depth to deal goaltending. Buffalo’s Craig Anderson, the 40-year-old who beat Toronto on Sunday, could also be available.

If the Leafs don’t deal for a goaltender, they’ll need better play from Campbell, out with a rib injury, and Mrázek. The Leafs also might want to look at Marlies call-up Erik Källgren while Campbell is sidelined. Ultimately, the net should be Campbell’s, with Mrazek backing up, though it’s hard to argue that an upgrade at the position could be the most beneficial move Dubas could make.

Defence

The batch of available blueliners appears to be strong and this could be where GM Kyle Dubas works his cap magic, with the hope that stabilizing the defence will stabilize the goaltending. It’s clear the Leafs cannot go into the playoffs counting on consistency from the young trio of Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, and Travis Dermott. Jake Muzzin’s return from concussion will change the complexion of the defensive pairings, but Muzzin has played very little since Jan. 15 and will need time to regain form.

Mark Giordano’s name has surfaced as a solid rental, and the undrafted 38-year-old from Toronto won his Norris Trophy in Calgary with T.J. Brodie as his defensive partner. Giordano would be a tremendous get for Dubas.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Which begs the question, how the hell can a team with 16,34,44,91 and 88 get swept ?? Surly heads will roll if they are swept.

Because the goalies have been putting up 840 this month and like 870-880 for the calendar year. No team can compete with that level of goaltending.

 

[VanW27]

It is not even about pressing to score. It is about pressing to make sure that the other team doesn't even get weak shots on net, because they are going in far more often than they should.

You start chasing spots that you don't mind players shooting from, then you start leaving holes in areas that you don't want them to shoot.

And even then, the Leafs are still near the top of every defensive metric at both ES and on the PK (where they are actually getting a reasonable number of saves) and it should not come as a surprise that we are 5th in the NHL on the PK this year (3rd in 2022).

Yet all of those metrics are misleading and inaccurate to the point where, despite all of them being good in 2022, the defense is the main reason why the team has a .72 ES HDSV%, a .880 ES SV%, and are giving up like 1.2 more ES goals per game than expected. The lowest ES HDSV% over the course of an entire season over the last 5 years is almost .76, and the lowest ES SV% is .892. So our defense must be REALLY bad if we are worse than that.

I'll make two points.

1. Playing in front of bad goaltending is hard, if you've ever played in front of a bad goalie you'll know what I'm talking about. You run around trying to prevent what should be easy saves, you can't keep that up, you'll falter, get worn out, and give up more high quality chances again in your desperation to prevent any type of chance. Playing in front of a bad goalie makes you look worse than you are defensively, and not just because you give up more goals.

2. Bad goaltending doesn't completely take the blame off the defense, we have been consistently at the bottom for HDSV% for a number of years, with multiple goalies. I've said this many times, while our defensive metric are good there's no way to truly quantify just how high quality, the HD chances you give up are, and we give up too many HIGH-high danger scoring chances, we need to cut down on the rush chances against in particular.

 

[nuck]

Matthews and Marner are worth their salaries and more. So is Nylander

Jt isn't living up to his.

The rest of the roster isn't a money issue. It's an incompetent balance issue. Cap problem is letting him off the hook. Focus should 100% be on identifiying the wrong guys to round out the roster with.

It has been mentioned before but the lineup would be a lot better with that $11M of JT's spend on defense. Kadri and Pietrangelo would make this team tougher to play against, assuming NK isn't suspended but that FA decision was made years ago. Less specifically, $5M less on the top four forwards would have given them better options in D and goal instead of having to chase the bargain bin. This lineup is actually close, when healthy, but even when Muzzin is back, can he be the guy from last season or was he actually healthy most of this year? Can Mrazrek at least crawl back to his career average? Campbell, who knows?

I doubt anybody thinks Dubas wouldn't spend at least as much as last year at the deadline. The other top 10 clubs aren't hoarding assets, they are loading up and the Leafs will too. Their window is every year and we can already see it may be starting to close a bit as the Spezza free wallet gets empty. But for the goalie collapse we might have seen a shocker addition like Miller or Giroux, but I think they add a goalie and a D, and if they don't get bent over to much on those, maybe a middle 6 forward.