GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART X

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Physicality is important but they have to be able to play .. Simmonds is plenty physical but the rest of his game makes him a pretty non-impactful player on the ice.
At this point in his career Simmonds is limited in what he's going to bring offensively but you could maximize the things that he does bring by having him on a line with someone that will have his back when he's going into battle.
 
Same thing happened last year with Foligno, and this offseason with Ritchie.

I suggest we don't do what people want.
To be fair, people clamouring for adding those attributes to this team are not suggesting it be on the 4th line/3rd pair.

Dubas has added a laundry list of players that check these boxes, but they are almost all exclusively over-the-hill, injury ridden, cast-offs, or depth players (Clifford, Foligno, Simmonds, Lyubushkin, Bogosian, Jumbo, Ritchie, etc.). There has yet to be an add of that style that can contribute in the top half of the lineup.

The only exception is Muzzin who is conveniently one of the best moves on Dubas' resume.

EDIT: and arguably the best value move of his tenure? Bunting.
 
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At this point in his career Simmonds is limited in what he's going to bring offensively but you could maximize the things that he does bring by having him on a line with someone that will have his back when he's going into battle.
Getting good young players willing to do that will require a new GM.
 
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At this point, I just want this to happen. Just so the people that insist that this team is too soft can finally get what they want. Just f*** it and do it.

I want Ben Chiarot, Jacob Middleton, Zach Sanford, Andrew Copp, Nic Deslauriers... bring them all. Give up anything and everything to make it happen outside of Matthews.
Yeah that’ll show them.
 
I cant see Arizona trading Crouse
Hes just coming on his own and still relatively young. Becoming a fan favorite

We need three key players in three different positions. I cant remember when we needed three key players all at once before the deadline

At best case i see Chariot and Garland
 
To be fair, people clamouring for adding those attributes to this team are not suggesting it be on the 4th line/3rd pair.

Dubas has added a laundry list of players that check these boxes, but they are almost all exclusively over-the-hill, injury ridden, cast-offs, or depth players (Clifford, Foligno, Simmonds, Lyubushkin, Bogosian, Jumbo, Ritchie, etc.). There has yet to be an add of that style that can contribute in the top half of the lineup.

The only exception is Muzzin who is conveniently one of the best moves on Dubas' resume.

EDIT: and arguably the best value move of his tenure? Bunting.

The problem is, there are not many guys who play well enough to play in the top half of a lineup and have those elements.

Even Chiarot and Manson are maybe #4, and not even good #4, defensemen. They are not guys you want being key defensemen.

It is possible to get hard-working types. Guys like Bunting, Kase, Hyman, etc. Those exist, we have a few guys like that at both ends, and we are developing a lot of guys who play that way. But the guys who hit, fight, and really play that physical game like Muzzin and Simmonds? Most of them are 4th liners and 3rd pairing guys at best. Otherwise, you take swings at guys like Ritchie who are still relatively young and have some ability to play higher up in the lineup. Finding guys who have enough skating ability to play in our system too? You are talking about guys who would effectively be top 5 picks in the NHL draft.

Hence, if a guy like Knies works out, you are looking at a massive win. Although even he is not conventional "tough".

For me, I am focusing on guys who play hard but can also actually play. The Hymans and the Buntings. Guys like Steeves and Anderson coming up. They will stand up for their teammates, but they are not going to look for fights or go out of their way to play "physical" if it doesn't serve a purpose. Those in the Marlies thread have probably seen this already:

 
I'm fine missing out on Manson. Not what the Leafs need.

I think we could use Manson, but you could also probably get that player type and pay a No Name price as well.

All comes down to how much the Leafs decide they should be going all in this year. With holes leaking everywhere do you just do a modest patch job?
 
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I'm still thinking Soucy fits, decent hitter shoots left but can play right, fairly mobile and decently cheap. Can play shutdown with Muzz. If Muzz isn't going then move him over to the left and pair him Holl or Boosh. It's cheap and decent 🤔
 
The problem is, there are not many guys who play well enough to play in the top half of a lineup and have those elements.

Even Chiarot and Manson are maybe #4, and not even good #4, defensemen. They are not guys you want being key defensemen.

It is possible to get hard-working types. Guys like Bunting, Kase, Hyman, etc. Those exist, we have a few guys like that at both ends, and we are developing a lot of guys who play that way. But the guys who hit, fight, and really play that physical game like Muzzin and Simmonds? Most of them are 4th liners and 3rd pairing guys at best. Otherwise, you take swings at guys like Ritchie who are still relatively young and have some ability to play higher up in the lineup. Finding guys who have enough skating ability to play in our system too? You are talking about guys who would effectively be top 5 picks in the NHL draft.

Hence, if a guy like Knies works out, you are looking at a massive win. Although even he is not conventional "tough".

For me, I am focusing on guys who play hard but can also actually play. The Hymans and the Buntings. Guys like Steeves and Anderson coming up. They will stand up for their teammates, but they are not going to look for fights or go out of their way to play "physical" if it doesn't serve a purpose. Those in the Marlies thread have probably seen this already:


Agree but this is where the debate usually gets muddy. It's not solely face punchers, but ultra competitive physical players that can contribute (a balance is still needed). This team needs more Bunting's specifically.

They're the definition of scarcity: demand > supply, which is why you almost always have to draft them unless you want to get rinsed. Dubas is on record saying this element can be addressed almost exclusively via trade/FA, which has proven to only offer my above list of broken down cast-offs, or insanely expensive bidding wars through trade. You'll get the odd contributor once every several years.

Those player types are certainly not always top 5 picks:

Benn, Marchand, Bertuzzi, JT Miller, Comtois, Jenner, Lee, Wilson, Trocheck, Lowry, Cirelli, Greenway, Josh Anderson, Gallagher, Coleman, Killorn, Foligno x2, Wood, Hagel, Konecny, etc. etc. etc. Overwhelmingly mid-round picks with a few late first rounders sprinkled in. Defenseman of this ilk seem to be even more readily available mid-round, but I won't post that list to keep this short.

Knies is looking like a massive coup for that reason but you cannot throw one dart in 3+ years at a player like this and expect it to work long-term.

Right now a guy like Hagel is on the market. Not proposing that trade, but it's the player archetype that is desperately needed. The Leafs have some internal options, but whether or not they are physically built for a career of that role is questionable, especially in the case of Anderson/Steeves/Robertson.
 
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I think we could use Manson, but you could also probably get that player type and pay a No Name price as well.

All comes down to how much the Leafs decide they should be going all in this year. With holes leaking everywhere do you just do a modest patch job?

Massive exaggeration for a team that mostly needs average goaltending to be considered one of the best teams in the league. Better than average goaltending? Probably at the very top of the league.

A healthy and effective Muzzin would go a long way too. But the Leafs have been top 10 (if not top 5) across the board in any ES or PK defensive metric except ES save percentage since January 1st, and that is with Muzzin being either injured or the weakest link. Of course, every offensive metric too, and that is with Nylander and Tavares being inconsistent.

Other than that, maybe an upgrade on Wayne Simmonds for the 4th line? Hardly something that will break us, but allowing Simmonds to be an extra off the bench in the playoffs may be a better idea than playing him every game. Would be good to have Spezza and Simmonds trade off so they are fresh and energetic every time they hit the ice.

Even by the eye test we are clearly a team that is mostly getting held back by goaltending right now.

I don't think this team needs to do very much or spend big assets at the TDL. Especially not on rentals. But this is a team that can beat anyone in the playoffs. They just need what every Cup winning team has: Their stars performing, their depth guys consistently and effectively doing their jobs as they have been the entire season, and a goalie who can keep them in games (and maybe even steal a few). The first one has been iffy at times to this point, and the last one has not happened enough to even win a round... But if our core guys and our goalie can't do it (again), then we have seen that it does not really matter what happens otherwise.
 
I think we could use Manson, but you could also probably get that player type and pay a No Name price as well.

All comes down to how much the Leafs decide they should be going all in this year. With holes leaking everywhere do you just do a modest patch job?


To me the real problem is that the 3 "holes" we have, aren't really "holes" as much as areas for theoretical improvement.

Yeah, you'd like a top 6 LW with some size to be what Ritchie couldn't, probably on the 2nd line... but you do have Kerfoot who's shown some success there, and Kase/Mikheyev who might also fit there too. If you're going to add, it's gotta be a material upgrade on those 3. How many LWers on the market are clear upgrades on Kerfoot/Kase/Mikheyev?

On D, you'd like a legitimate top 4 defenceman to help do some physical heavy lifting... but at the same time, after Rielly/Muzzin/Brodie, you've got Holl, Dermott, Lyubushkin, Sandin & Liljegren. On a given night, two of them are in the pressbox. If you're adding, it's gotta be somebody who's a fairly substantial upgrade on "the 3rd worst of them". How many defencemen are out there on the market who fit that criteria?

Another poster mentioned Carson Soucy -- to me he's somewhat more of the same calibre that the Leafs already have 5 of. I think if you're shopping Seattle contracts, it's Oleksiak or Larsson.

In Goal, Mrazek's been bad, but it's not like there's a long list of goalies that have been better than he has. Fleury & Varlamov apparently don't want to come here. Braden Holtby plays for Dallas who are seemingly not selling. I think that leaves the best possible move leaning towards something along the lines of Mrazek for Craig Anderson in Buffalo.
 
It does matter. That's why I'm saying to go and get it.

I want the fans to get what they want and I'm all for it. I just want Dubas to channel his Brian Burke and just go full meat head. Grab those tough players, be tougher to play against and make sure we don't get pushed around. It's probably the biggest issue of this team.
But the moment we get those guys and they start to throw their weight around the league is going to put the stink eye on their every move. We're going to get penalties up the wazoo while our skill players still get mugged with no calls. And if one of those tough guys engages with the other teams "stars" as payback you can bet yer ass the suspensions will soon follow. Until the bias in the DOPS and the rest of the league offices stops, there's no point. We're doomed to mediocrity because Gary wants it that way.
 
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To me the real problem is that the 3 "holes" we have, aren't really "holes" as much as areas for theoretical improvement.

Yeah, you'd like a top 6 LW with some size to be what Ritchie couldn't, probably on the 2nd line... but you do have Kerfoot who's shown some success there, and Kase/Mikheyev who might also fit there too. If you're going to add, it's gotta be a material upgrade on those 3. How many LWers on the market are clear upgrades on Kerfoot/Kase/Mikheyev?

On D, you'd like a legitimate top 4 defenceman to help do some physical heavy lifting... but at the same time, after Rielly/Muzzin/Brodie, you've got Holl, Dermott, Lyubushkin, Sandin & Liljegren. On a given night, two of them are in the pressbox. If you're adding, it's gotta be somebody who's a fairly substantial upgrade on "the 3rd worst of them". How many defencemen are out there on the market who fit that criteria?

Another poster mentioned Carson Soucy -- to me he's somewhat more of the same calibre that the Leafs already have 5 of. I think if you're shopping Seattle contracts, it's Oleksiak or Larsson.

In Goal, Mrazek's been bad, but it's not like there's a long list of goalies that have been better than he has. Fleury & Varlamov apparently don't want to come here. Braden Holtby plays for Dallas who are seemingly not selling. I think that leaves the best possible move leaning towards something along the lines of Mrazek for Craig Anderson in Buffalo.

Fully agree with what you are saying. Although I haven't seen anything suggesting Varlamov doesn't want to come here, or even that Fleury has rejected us. Obviously, nothing to the contrary either (i.e. that they do want to come here).
 
Agree but this is where the debate usually gets muddy. It's not solely face punchers, but ultra competitive physical players that can contribute (a balance is still needed). This team needs more Bunting's specifically.

They're the definition of scarcity: demand > supply, which is why you almost always have to draft them unless you want to get rinsed. Dubas is on record saying this element can be addressed almost exclusively via trade/FA, which has proven to only offer my above list of broken down cast-offs, or insanely expensive bidding wars through trade. You'll get the odd contributor once every several years.

Those player types are certainly not always top 5 picks:

Benn, Marchand, Bertuzzi, JT Miller, Comtois, Jenner, Lee, Wilson, Trocheck, Lowry, Cirelli, Greenway, Josh Anderson, Gallagher, Coleman, Killorn, Foligno x2, Wood, Hagel, Konecny, etc. etc. etc. Overwhelmingly mid-round picks with a few late first rounders sprinkled in. Defenseman of this ilk seem to be even more readily available mid-round, but I won't post that list to keep this short.

Knies is looking like a massive coup for that reason but you cannot throw one dart in 3+ years at a player like this and expect it to work long-term.

Right now a guy like Hagel is on the market. Not proposing that trade, but it's the player archetype that is desperately needed. The Leafs have some internal options, but whether or not they are physically built for a career of that role is questionable, especially in the case of Anderson/Steeves/Robertson.

Anderson and Steeves are the same size or bigger than Hagel, Konecny, Gallagher, Trocheck, etc.. A lot of the guys you listed are not really huge players, and some of the larger ones would struggle in systems like ours.

And then what about the likes of Trevor Moore? Does he count? Zach Hyman? Ondrej Kase? I know people would count Mason Marchment.

You will notice that Joey Anderson, Marchment, Steeves, Moore, Bunting, Kase, and Hyman were all brought in through trade or UFA. A few guys on your list were also brought in through trade or UFA (Foligno x2, Trocheck, Josh Anderson, Coleman, Hagel, and Miller). Goodrow, who is not listed, was actually signed as a UFA twice and traded, as is the case with some of those names as well. Tanner Jeannot and Brandon Tanev are two other gritty examples signed as UFAs.

Additionally, the Leafs have actually been able to transform guys into these hard working, gritty players on the Marlies. Trevor Moore, for example, was a perimeter playmaker not much unlike SDA. So we do draft a few guys like that if they have great skill and intellect even if they are perimeter-type players: Abruzzese, Voit, Ovchinnikov, Miettinen, SDA, Koster, etc. I am sure they hope that once the Marlies staff gets a hold of them, we can maybe turn them into another Moore or they can make it as a guy who doesn't engage physically a whole lot; no shame in that either if they help you win games.

Mixed in there are a lot of guys who, while maybe not Knies' size, are not content just sitting on the perimeter either. Amirov, Hirvonen, Holmberg, Abramov, Joe Miller, Tverberg, Kokkonen, Niemela, Kral, Villeneuve, Robertson... Most of these guys will probably hover around 6'0" once they are in the NHL and most will need to bulk up in order for their games to be effective, but these are guys who are not shying away from contact and tough battles in tight areas. Some of them even thrive on it and are a little bit pesty (like Tverberg). Of course, Dubas has also brought in a few larger, grittier guys on AHL/ELC's as well: Marchment, Rubins, Holl, Brazeau, Douglas, Kopacka. Some have worked here (Holl), some have worked elsewhere (Marchment), some are TBD (Rubins and Douglas), and others have not really worked out well (Kopacka and Brazeau, at least as guys who project as more than solid AHLers).

So Dubas has a point. He has not drafted guys like we saw Hunter draft. Every single one of those guys failed except for Grundstrom (who is not that big and is similar to some of the guys Dubas has drafted/signed). He goes for skill and IQ first, and if they have size like Knies does, then bonus. But that skill still needs to work hard, and he is not drafting guys with character issues or guys he does not think can develop into those roles.

This upcoming year may say a lot about him too. If Dubas keeps his top 2 picks, there will be many opportunities to draft some large guys (both forward and defense) with a great mix of skill, intelligence, and size/physicality... This draft more than many of the ones Dubas has been controlling. Previous years had slim pickings for those types unless you were willing to deal with major overhauls in skating or had a higher pick than we possessed (a few picks in 2020 aside). Just avoid some of the potential major pitfalls like Lamoureux and I am happy.
 
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Just for fun. John Tavares for Demko + Cap dump (Tyler Myers).

Myers would improve Leafs D even though he has negative value cause of his contract.
 
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Anderson and Steeves are the same size or bigger than Hagel, Konecny, Gallagher, Trocheck, etc.. A lot of the guys you listed are not really huge players, and some of the larger ones would struggle in systems like ours.

And then what about the likes of Trevor Moore? Does he count? Zach Hyman? Ondrej Kase? I know people would count Mason Marchment.

You will notice that Joey Anderson, Marchment, Steeves, Moore, Bunting, Kase, and Hyman were all brought in through trade or UFA. A few guys on your list were also brought in through trade or UFA (Foligno x2, Trocheck, Josh Anderson, Coleman, Hagel, and Miller). Goodrow, who is not listed, was actually signed as a UFA twice and traded, as is the case with some of those names as well. Tanner Jeannot and Brandon Tanev are two other gritty examples signed as UFAs.

Additionally, the Leafs have actually been able to transform guys into these hard working, gritty players on the Marlies. Trevor Moore, for example, was a perimeter playmaker not much unlike SDA. So we do draft a few guys like that if they have great skill and intellect even if they are perimeter-type players: Abruzzese, Voit, Ovchinnikov, Miettinen, SDA, Koster, etc. I am sure they hope that once the Marlies staff gets a hold of them, we can maybe turn them into another Moore or they can make it as a guy who doesn't engage physically a whole lot; no shame in that either if they help you win games.

Mixed in there are a lot of guys who, while maybe not Knies' size, are not content just sitting on the perimeter either. Amirov, Hirvonen, Holmberg, Abramov, Joe Miller, Tverberg, Kokkonen, Niemela, Kral, Villeneuve, Robertson... Most of these guys will probably hover around 6'0" once they are in the NHL and most will need to bulk up in order for their games to be effective, but these are guys who are not shying away from contact and tough battles in tight areas. Some of them even thrive on it and are a little bit pesty (like Tverberg). Of course, Dubas has also brought in a few larger, grittier guys on AHL/ELC's as well: Marchment, Rubins, Holl, Brazeau, Douglas, Kopacka. Some have worked here (Holl), some have worked elsewhere (Marchment), some are TBD (Rubins and Douglas), and others have not really worked out well (Kopacka and Brazeau, at least as guys who project as more than solid AHLers).

So Dubas has a point. He has not drafted guys like we saw Hunter draft. Every single one of those guys failed except for Grundstrom (who is not that big and is similar to some of the guys Dubas has drafted/signed). He goes for skill and IQ first, and if they have size like Knies does, then bonus. But that skill still needs to work hard, and he is not drafting guys with character issues or guys he does not think can develop into those roles.

This upcoming year may say a lot about him too. If Dubas keeps his top 2 picks, there will be many opportunities to draft some large guys (both forward and defense) with a great mix of skill, intelligence, and size/physicality... This draft more than many of the ones Dubas has been controlling. Previous years had slim pickings for those types unless you were willing to deal with major overhauls in skating or had a higher pick than we possessed (a few picks in 2020 aside). Just avoid some of the potential major pitfalls like Lamoureux and I am happy.
Bunting came here in a unique circumstance as a gift. Hyman too, was a gift. If we can rely on the hometown pull, that's the only way FA will work long-term. The others, including Marchment and Moore, were again bottom sixers here, albeit valuable ones.

Steeves is concussed right now, Robertson has suffered several serious injuries (broken leg/knee injury/etc.), Anderson is soon to be 24 and likely a 4th liner of value.

On-paper height/weight is a surface level way of assessing a player's physical build. Robertson is bigger on paper than Hoglander, but their builds are completely different and translate differently to play-style. Hagel is another example of a similar build to Hoglander. Thick tree trunk legs, excellent balance, etc. that lends itself to mucking it up (Sandin is built this way to some degree). Robertson is one of the few forward prospects outside of Tverberg/Knies/Douglas that initiates often, but he is built top heavy with horrible balance as a result. The other names listed are far, far reaches when talking about physicality (e.g. Amirov, Abramov, Miller, etc.)

Not shying away from contact is not the same as consistently initiating it. Bottom line, this lineup needs more of it but that's just me.
 
This team is pretty trash in terms of heart... Marner, Nylander, Tavares intensity levels are pretty much in the negative. The three of them won't get into as much as a face wash with an opponent. This team is head shaking soft. I'd rather watch Ritchie on this team and not producing then 65% of the rest of these softies. Little Bunting is fighting a battle all by himself. I don't know how you can have Tavares as a captain... won't even make eye contact with a fired up opponent.
 
With Anaheim dumping, lets grab their UFAs -

Lindholm (25-50% ret.)
Rakell (25-50% ret.)
Stolarz
Deslauriers

for

22' 1st
23' 2nd
+ something decent
Engvall
Dermott
Mrazek
+ Small pieces (Abramov, SDA, whoever)

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Rakell - Tavares - Nylander
Mikheyev - Kampf - Kase
Deslauriers - Kerfoot - Spezza
Simmonds, Clifford, Robertson

Rielly - Brodie
Lindholm - Holl
Sandin - Lybushkin
Liljegren, Muzzin (IR)

Campbell
Stolarz
 
If you are giving up a lot of those chances, it would be reflected in xGA. Unless you are giving up one-timers to a bunch of scrubs, then a direct shot from a Matthews is probably worse. We would have to effectively say that, due to our eye-test, the Leafs are some major outlier in a stat which has more or less accurately represented every other team in the league.

But we can even use the eye-test too. Most of the goals we are giving up are not exactly impossible for our goalie to stop. Sure, some are tough saves. Some are shots that you can't expect the goalie to save every time. But there are not a lot of easy tap-ins or tips that go top corner or are just like "wow, the goalie had no chance". We have seen those kinds of games with Andersen in net a few years ago. I think Leafs fans can tell the difference at this point. It is not even like we had very many games where they could do whatever they wanted in front of our net either (and Muzzin has arguably been the worst in front of the net this year).

There are a lot of goals that are getting through the goalie. Stuff that they should be saving 95%+ of the time, but they simply aren't. Stuff that our defense should not even have to worry about, but seemingly has to. And when the defense starts to worry about that, then can't focus on stopping the types of chances that they should be worried about stopping. One thing would be 2-on-1's. Obviously, it is one thing to give them up and preventing them in the first place, but there have been some cases recently when we are seeing our defenseman cheat towards the shooter and instead they are able to get an easy tap in. I am going to use the most recent MTL game as an example.



This is a game where I felt like we defended poorly. One of the worst efforts we have had this year, but also a game where the goalie was not good as well.

First goal, no coverage on Josh Anderson. Type of goal that people think the Leafs give up a lot by getting out muscled. We don't, but we have to do better there. The pass can't get through that many guys (although I think it bounced off of someone so it was a little bit lucky to get to Anderson as clean as it did) and Brodie can't let Anderson get free like that. The shove itself was not really anything. That was just poor coverage on Brodie's part. Not Mrazek's fault.

Second goal, should not have gone in. It was an odd man rush, but that was a muffin shot from the dot and Mrazek overplayed it.

3rd goal, same thing. Not a goal that should have gone in. That is exactly the type of shot you want him to take if he is going to shoot in that situation.

4th goal, was another one that beat him too clean, but Kerfoot should have noticed the trailing Anderson.

And I think 5th goal is the effect you see when you are not getting goaltending. 3 goals given up from that general area that should have been saved. Rielly goes after the shooter, and the other guy is left wide open in front. If you are trusting your goalie, Rielly is not chasing the shooter there.

To conclude in this thread, we improve our goaltending and our defense almost certainly looks better, and does better. Defense is not our problem, at least to the point where we need a trade addition.


Look like sunday game but last game 3rd goal is a perfect exemple of how the defensive game can affect goalie reacting. Yes it a weak goal but do you think mrazek was expecting shot from there or a cross crease he saw all game long? Unstead of just be concentrate to stop direct shot, he started to overthinking, cheated for the cross crease and get caught out of position short side. It is possible than this weak goal where every goalie look awful just relate how bad this team playing up front?

Im not telling goaltending was not a problem but for me to evaluate a goalie, you need to give him tool to have succes and right now its not even close to be the case.

The way they played right now to look a minimum good in net, they will need a vasilevskiy or shesterkins in net, not a maf, gibson, varlamov or whatever
 
Totally guessing, but they may make a few moves by the deadline. Doubt they will be blockbusters. Just a few names being thrown out here. Maybe something like

Zack MacEwen type to replace Simmonds. I know they are devoted to Simmonds and everything but he looks done. MacEwen is younger with lots of energy, fast enough to actually connect on a body check not just make a loud bang on the boards and isn't bad with the puck on his stick.

Backup goalie swap. Maybe something around Mrazek and Halak? Change of scenery may do wonders for both. Probably have to attach a pick to cover salary differences. Halak has only had 1 season below .900 besides this one. And most nights .900 would be a win for the Leafs.

I think they're going to go after Chiarot. I really don't mind him but he's nowhere near worth the current asking price and if Muzzin gets back to somewhat normal I don't see him as much of an upgrade, if any at all, on what we have.

If they decide to go the blockbuster way I'm thinking Lindholm and Crouse.
 
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