Do you know it was a mistake for sure ? Or is it possible that we made an offer and they player actually didn’t select Toronto or didn’t except our terms? That does happen
GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART X
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PhiladelphiaKessel
DontCrossthe****Line
- Aug 9, 2010
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SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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They actually would have.
Tampa had a lot of games where they ran up the score (getting 7 or 8 goals while only giving up one), which does boost their GF/GP numbers, but over half of their wins were 3 goals or less, and only 3 games required more than 3 goals to win. Against CBJ specifically (our opponent in 2020), they averaged 2.25 goals per game in their first four games and won 3 out of the 4. It was only the 5th game when they put up major offense, but also gave up a lot of goals too.
The main thing that Tampa was able to do was they rarely ever played down. Even when they didn't score, Vasilevsky made sure that nothing (especially nothing cheap) was going in the other way. Tampa was able to maintain their level of play without having to worry about chasing the game to tie it up. Campbell and Andersen rarely ever gave us that luxury. Even the best teams in the league (like us and Tampa) are at best hovering around .500 when the other team scores first (in the regular season when you are also playing worse teams).
Our last three series:
2-0 when we score first against MTL.
1-4 when we did not.
1-1 when we score first against CBJ.
1-2 when we don't.
2-1 when we score first against BOS.
1-3 when we don't.
Combined:
5-2 when we score first.
3-9 when we don't.
And you can look at the kinds of goals that our goalies have given up when the other team scores first; a lot of them are shots that the other goalies were saving. Not saying they were all soft (although some definitely were), but not a lot of them were goals they had no chance at stopping either.
Also, just so you don't think it is a Leafs only thing, we can look at Tampa the past two years:
26-3 when they score first*
6-10 when they did not**
*There were a lot of games when they did not score right away too. Sometimes it took most or all of the first period. Other times it maybe took half a game.
**In many of the 6 games that Tampa won after giving up the first goal, Vasilevsky often shut the door the rest of the game.
So yes, the Leafs do need to score more. The goaltending also needs to make sure that they are not giving up the first goal (or at least shuts the door afterwards) even if it takes time for the first goal to come. That is a luxury that Tampa is afforded with a 29-16 split, and seemingly a luxury you need to win. The Leafs, with a 7-12 split, have been counting on our offense to make up for a weakness that looks to be rooted a lot more in clutch goaltending than anything else.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Only somebody in Leaf management knows the answer but given the difference between 1x2 and 3x3.8, IMO it follows that they could have outbid Dallas for Holtby but chose Mrazek.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
I am told there is a lineup forming just outside of SBA along with an airport limo ready to wisk him away.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
While I have no doubt Leafs management's main target in goal during free agency was Mrazek, we also can't necessarily assume we'd be able to sign every player in an alternative scenario. There always exists the possibility that a guy like Holtby didn't want to play in Canada/the Leafs ect.
tmlfan98
No More Excuses #MarnerOut
Throughout his career Georgiev has performed best in instances where either the starter went down and he was given consistent starts, and/or he faces a lower amount of shots. The Leafs taking a flyer on him would put him in an optimal situation on both counts. He would be given a consistent workload whereas in New York he has never had that opportunity unless the starter has been injured, and the Leafs under Keefe are top half of the league in both 5v5 SA/60 and 5v5 HDSA/60. In New York they have always been bottom half of the league in shots allowed. If the price is lower than some bigger names out there he makes more sense than the likes of Stolarz or Forsberg.
In terms of more established names I agree that Varlamov would be a great fit here, but I would take Holtby or Varlamov as an established 1A over Fleury when accounting for system fit.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Signed in Vancouver last year. Sure if he was turned off by the experience of playing in Canada, it is possible he wanted nothing to do with the Leafs. He is Canadian though and money does talk.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Warmer weather, lower state tax and no media pressure can make some markets more appealing. But obviously all just speculation
Mickey Marner
Registered User
Tampa scores first because they don't allow them and they score them.
Goals for by period in the playoffs 2016-17 to 2020-21.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Team[/TD][TD]GP[/TD][TD]1P[/TD][TD]2P[/TD][TD]3P[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Tampa[/TD][TD]66[/TD][TD]64[/TD][TD]74[/TD][TD]58[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toronto[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]17[/TD][TD]35[/TD][TD]26[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Goals against by period.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Team[/TD][TD]GP[/TD][TD]1P[/TD][TD]2P[/TD][TD]3P[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Tampa[/TD][TD]66[/TD][TD]42[/TD][TD]59[/TD][TD]56[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toronto[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]25[/TD][TD]32[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Ironically we actually lead the NHL in 1st period regular season goals over this period.
Goals for by period in the playoffs 2016-17 to 2020-21.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Team[/TD][TD]GP[/TD][TD]1P[/TD][TD]2P[/TD][TD]3P[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Tampa[/TD][TD]66[/TD][TD]64[/TD][TD]74[/TD][TD]58[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toronto[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]17[/TD][TD]35[/TD][TD]26[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Goals against by period.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Team[/TD][TD]GP[/TD][TD]1P[/TD][TD]2P[/TD][TD]3P[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Tampa[/TD][TD]66[/TD][TD]42[/TD][TD]59[/TD][TD]56[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toronto[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]25[/TD][TD]32[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Ironically we actually lead the NHL in 1st period regular season goals over this period.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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I am not exactly sure how Georgiev gets consistent starts here when Mrazek is not getting them himself, and even if we bring him back next year, he is the kind of guy who would likely not get anything better than a 50-50 split short of there being injuries.
I think realistically you are looking at a possibly decent 1B who may be able to perform better with more consistent ice time with Georgiev. I think that is effectively describing Mrazek right now too though, especially when you exclude a pair of really shoddy efforts in front of him against Montreal and Buffalo.
And I don't think Dubas is going back on his vote of confidence in Mrazek/Campbell with a lateral (at best) move. It'll be a move which clearly upgrades the team or no move at all.
tmlfan98
No More Excuses #MarnerOut
Mrazek is a nice 1B depending on what team he's on, but the problem with him is systematic fit so it doesn't matter how many starts we give him. Mrazek will never fit Keefe's system. Freddy Andersen ran into the same problem right when Keefe took over. Now he's in Carolina who don't allow many general shots at 5v5, but surprisingly the Canes have always been bottom half of the league in high danger shots allowed. And we know Freddy is the type of goalie that plays best in defensive systems that bleed high danger shots. Also note how both Freddy and Mrazek were both successful in Carolina.
In regards to your last point, if Dubas doesn't go back on his vote of confidence at this point, the team is almost certainly looking at another 1st round exit and Dubas will likely cost himself his job.
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Sharks are pretty much out of it. I wonder if they would do some kind of Reimer/Hertl package with Mrazek/Kerfoot going back the other way plus a 1st/2nd and/or decent prospect depending on how SJ evaluates Kerfoot
Kallgren fills in as the 3rd until Reimer recovers.
Kallgren fills in as the 3rd until Reimer recovers.
Korpisalo, Georgiev, Forsberg, Stolarz... all those guys would end just as horribly as the rest. Thats the same scrap heap Mrazek and Campbell were pulled from. This is a team that took a guy in Campbell who LA had completely rebuilt, and ruined him in less than two years. The rest would fare no better.
The answer is Holtby or Varlamov, ideally both. Two strong headed capable veterans that could handle this market.
I love Fleury, but I don't think he's the guy for this team.
The answer is Holtby or Varlamov, ideally both. Two strong headed capable veterans that could handle this market.
I love Fleury, but I don't think he's the guy for this team.
Holtby is a good option but the first group of guys should not be viewed as the same.
Stolarz and Forsberg are two guys who have always played better than the teams in front of them but due to a lack of understanding / development on how to properly separate a goaltenders performance from their teams, they're path to a steady role has not been easy.
This is one analytic area I would like to see the leafs make significant improvements.
Really hoping that Mrazek and Campbell can get their heads screwed on right and are able to provide playoff calibre goaltending.
No matter who we may or may not add at the TDL at FW or Defence, it doesn't make a difference if we can't keep pucks out the of the net.
Looking at the goalies we stand to see at the other of the ice in the playoffs, we are definitely standing at the shallow end of the pool as it relates to goalies, and there is no way you are outscoring your deficiency in net in the playoffs.
I'm sorry, but I think we are in some serious trouble as it stands right now. Dubas has still been unable solidify our position in net.
No matter who we may or may not add at the TDL at FW or Defence, it doesn't make a difference if we can't keep pucks out the of the net.
Looking at the goalies we stand to see at the other of the ice in the playoffs, we are definitely standing at the shallow end of the pool as it relates to goalies, and there is no way you are outscoring your deficiency in net in the playoffs.
I'm sorry, but I think we are in some serious trouble as it stands right now. Dubas has still been unable solidify our position in net.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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Forsberg hasn't really. His actual GA numbers are always a fair bit higher than his xGA numbers, and he always has had a low HDSV%.
What has he done to suggest he plays better than the team in front of him? It seems like at best he plays about as well as the team in front of him.
Stolarz, in a small sample size in ANA, seems to be doing better. But we are betting on a 29 game sample size across 3 seasons in the weakest division in hockey vs. having to go up against high end offensive teams in the playoffs. Stolarz's numbers are getting boosted by good performances against teams like Ottawa, Arizona, and Seattle. He does consistently well against STL, but he has done poorly against pretty much every other good team he has faced.
Judas Tavares
S2S (Sundin2Sandin)
- Feb 9, 2007
- 10,188
- 3,632
I think Varlamov would be a great option. Great goalie with term. Maybe even add Clutterbuck and Mayfield. But it just doesn't seem feasible. The islanders wouldn't take Mrazek, that would make no sense, not so much from a skill prospective, but due to term. I think Lou of all people would probably raise they price on Kyle and it would be astronomical.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
- 35,591
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And how do you propose we score more goals? We are clearly capable, given we score goals in the regular season. It is not due to a lack of chances; we are getting those. We are not making it easy on the goalie.
Tampa is getting a few more deflections to go in. Something that hits off of a defender and finds a hole. Our shots that get deflected seem to go wide. Or even clean looks seem to find holes a little bit easier. Obviously they have snipes and stuff too, but there are some that are just getting through that were not getting through for us.
It's razor thin margins but our offense is good enough to make things happen if our goalie holds up their end. Giving up goals, especially soft ones, first is very demoralizing for any team... And we have to fight that burden more than most other high end playoff teams.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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Lou is going to do what is best for his team, and right now, that is re-tool: Shed some cap and add some assets for the future. We can offer them both of those things: Mrazek saves them 1.2 mill in cap without having them give up on their 1A/1B situation with Sorokin, and he will be coming along with some futures.
5 mill for what Varlamov is bringing to this team is not helpful to them right now, and won't be helpful to them next year either. It is a lot for their 1B. 3.8 mill is a lot more reasonable.
If we give him the best offer for his team, he will do a deal with us. Just like that Martin trade; he could have stuck us with Martin's contract or made us give up something, but he pretty much took him for nothing... Because he felt Martin was a good fit for his team.
I'm not sure that's the move for us. James Reimer won't really move the needle for us. You either get a top 10 caliber goaltender or you just go with this tandem approach which has its shares of highs and lows.
Out of the goalies that may become available, I see the most upside in Georgiev. Either go for him or just wait for a legit goaltender to become available. It's annoying how this team hasn't been able to draft and develop a number 1 netminder since Potvin.
Both guys in their careers have faced both a higher than league average SA/60 and a higher than league average differentials in high danger and low danger chances faced. They have both put up decent numbers despite that.
I'm not surprised seeing Forsbergs HDSV% being low as you mentioned because of that.
I have a 6 year weighted average model that tries to adjust SV% based on the factors above compared to the mean in all those categories to try and give you an isolated look on how a goaltender performs.
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