GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART X
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Those who are looking for goalies
Besides 2 or 3 of them, all the goalies are homegrown (essentially besides Markstrom and Andersen)
- Igor Shesterkin1.96
- Jeremy Swayman2.03
- Frederik Andersen2.08
- Ville Husso2.13
- Jacob Markstrom2.17
- Vitek Vanecek2.25
- Jake Oettinger2.28
- Tristan Jarry2.30
- Andrei Vasilevskiy2.32
- Pavel Francouz2.33
Besides 2 or 3 of them, all the goalies are homegrown (essentially besides Markstrom and Andersen)
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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And they did so on the back of their goalies, not their offense.
Tampa had a lot of games where they struggled to score and won games 2-1 or even 1-0. In 2020-2021, Half of their wins were 3 goals or less, and only 3 of their wins required 4 or more goals. Even in their 7 losses, they only gave up more than 3 goals twice (and a bunch of 3-2 OT losses).
In 2019-2020, they only needed more than 3 goals 3 times out of their 16 wins and only gave up more than 3 goals twice in their 6 losses. Effectively, they did not need a lot of goals to win games.
Against Boston 3 series ago, all 4 of our losses would have required 5 or more goals to win. We gave up 4 or more (non-empty net) goals in all of them. Sure, we could have scored more, but you are not winning many games in the playoffs (where scoring drops off for everyone) when you need 5 goals. And our defense was nowhere near bad enough to be accountable for that many goals against. Last year, we would have needed 4 goals or more in two of our losses, and 3 in the other two losses. I guess it is not too much to ask for 3 goals in one of those two games, but it is also not too much to ask your goalie to keep you in those games either... Especially when we dominated most of them.
Our goalies have spotted the other team goals and haven't made key saves in clinching games. It is the same thing we are seeing right now. Our offense could have done more, but there are a lot of games where Tampa counted on their goaltending to keep them in games until their offense could score, or to hold slim leads when their offense could not pile on more. It is not like our offense has never scored, or are not generating opportunities. Every Cup winning team needs to be able to rely on their goalie and we simply cannot in most games where we don't make it practically a cake walk for them (and even some when we do).
And the thing is, the solution is probably not even getting a guy who is expensive and prestigious either. Andersen had prestige and was fairly expensive. We've seen other guys like him totally flop too. And then we also see Binnington go from waiver wire to Cup Champ in one year. Khudobin go from journeyman backup to Conn Smythe candidate. It is not completely random, and there is a better chance you get high quality play out of Vasilevsky or Price than Campbell, but it seems like it is on the goalies to have the confidence and ability to step up at the right times. We haven't had that in our 5 playoff series, even when we have had scoring.
tmlfan98
No More Excuses #MarnerOut
Other than Holtby and Georgiev, no other goalies that are rumoured to be available fit the team's system and cap structure. If we could find a taker for Mrazek (maybe Oilers if they find a spot to dump Koskinen's expiring deal?) and bring in one of Holtby/Georgiev to tandem with Jack that's an instant upgrade.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
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To what end? We are trusting another Campbell-like guy to be better than Campbell? We might as well trust Campbell to turn things around TBH.
Connor Ingram has 2 games of NHL experience. Good AHL goalie, but I am trusting Woll before turning to him.
Forsberg/Stolarz seem like options for EDM. Cheaper on cap and assets who may be better than Koskinen. Maybe they can catch lightning in the bottle with one of them like we did with Campbell. Maybe even do something larger like Koskinen + Russell + Holloway + 1st for Lindholm + Stolarz.
But I am not paying assets for another completely unproven external option with zero playoff experience and a resume which is mostly comprised of being mediocre #3's. Campbell at least has an extensive resume of being a high end backup and has shown flashes of high end play, and Mrazek as solid tandem starter for many years.
I think the deal for the Leafs would be Mrazek + for Varlamov or Gibson, or nothing at all. I am not seeing anyone else worth it over just trusting Mrazek and Campbell to figure things out.
Given Dallas' current standing, I don't see them moving Holtby. I see three names worth going for, goalie wise, and it's possible none of them are available Fleury (may not want to be moved?), Varlamov (high salary and signed for next year, Isles may just keep him since Sorokin is cheap), Holtby (is he even available) - otherwise, I would look at a Forsberg, Stolarz option.
Dubas' "we aren't in the goalie market" may more be about the lack of anything available, despite the vote of confidence he gave Jack and Mrazek.
If you can get a Stolarz or Forsberg for cheap, you look to do that, likely would only cost a 4th rounder or so, and perhaps we can send back the Hutch contract slot.
I have to think Dubas will be in a panic mode soon. He's been set on the core-4 and to be honest it's worked this season, however, we've had space tied up in Ritchie, Mrazek, Muzzin that's really hindered our ability.
The thought behind Forsberg/Stolarz is just that. Give us increased odds of a goalie preforming well. Won't cost much asset wise, and can fit on the cap even with two other goalies. Also an insurance move similar to Rittich last year. Neither Campbell or Mrazek have stayed healthy this season.
Stolarz especially interesting since he's signed for next year. Good backup option.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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Georgiev is not an upgrade on Mrazek.
Holtby might be. He has great 5-on-5 numbers but is brought down by special teams to the point where his overall numbers are similar to Mrazek's in 2022. Mrazek's numbers in 2022 are mostly brought down by a pair of bad games (not only by him) against BUF and MTL.
I would explore Holtby, but the price has to be right and Mrazek would have to go the other way. I just don't see Dallas doing it. He seems like a good mentor for Oettenger and Dallas is in the playoff hunt in a very wide open Western Conference right now. Colorado is by far the best, but they have choked hard in the past and after that, there are not really any favourites to make the Finals. Calgary honestly may be the next best bet, and they have a number of holes themselves.
Dragao6
Registered User
To answer previous post
Yes
Keeping our ufa and getting no assets has resulted in 0 playoff success for more then a decade
These cheap signings aren’t doing anything to this team when it counts so if u want to keep the ufa and continue to make minor deals and hope he’ll freezes over then Ymir’s what we done for too long
I’d like to see signs of serious moves and not ruin matthews years just like the oilers
Yes
Keeping our ufa and getting no assets has resulted in 0 playoff success for more then a decade
These cheap signings aren’t doing anything to this team when it counts so if u want to keep the ufa and continue to make minor deals and hope he’ll freezes over then Ymir’s what we done for too long
I’d like to see signs of serious moves and not ruin matthews years just like the oilers
Mickey Marner
Registered User
Sure, Andersen playing like shit against Boston arguably cost us the series. But this offense wouldn't have won the past two years with Vasilevskiy either.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Team/Year[/TD][TD]GF/GP[/TD][TD]GA/GP[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Tampa 2020[/TD][TD]3.08[/TD][TD]2.28[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toronto 2020[/TD][TD]2.00[/TD][TD]2.40[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Tampa 2021[/TD][TD]3.26[/TD][TD]1.96[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toronto 2021[/TD][TD]2.57[/TD][TD]2.00[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
This offense needs to score 3 goals per game in the playoffs to be worth their salaries, which they've never done. The cost of our expensive forwards is cheap goaltending, the burden is on them to show their worth it.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Team/Year[/TD][TD]GF/GP[/TD][TD]GA/GP[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Tampa 2020[/TD][TD]3.08[/TD][TD]2.28[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toronto 2020[/TD][TD]2.00[/TD][TD]2.40[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Tampa 2021[/TD][TD]3.26[/TD][TD]1.96[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toronto 2021[/TD][TD]2.57[/TD][TD]2.00[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
This offense needs to score 3 goals per game in the playoffs to be worth their salaries, which they've never done. The cost of our expensive forwards is cheap goaltending, the burden is on them to show their worth it.
stickty111
Registered User
- Jan 23, 2017
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Dubas isn't the one to make a panic move to save his job. That doesn't mean he won't look to make a move to help the team.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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Campbell hasn't been hurt this year and you are talking marginal odds at best. We probably have better odds of trusting Woll or Kallgren to catch lightning in a bottle. Wouldn't be the first time a good but unproven goalie prospect has done so. Kallgren had a .930 in the SHL playoffs on his way to leading his team to a championship last year. Would have probably been the MVP if not for the stellar performance from Holmberg. SHL and NHL are two different beasts, but at least we know the guy has some mental fortitude and a championship pedigree.
Stolarz and Forsberg have had spurts of greatness followed by spurts of being really bad. They are pretty much the new McElhinney. Right now they are on a high, and have carried it for a good portion of this season, but we are kidding ourselves if we think these guys are anything more than #3's or maybe decent #2's who can act as veteran insurance upgrades over Hutch. That is not going to help us in the playoffs, and that is what the Leafs need to be concerned about. At least Campbell was a consistent high end backup by the time he was 27; neither Forsberg nor Stolarz have shown even that to this point.
tmlfan98
No More Excuses #MarnerOut
Fleury isn't a good fit on this team, although I definitely agree on Varlamov (cap structure fit aside). Hard disagree on settling for a Stolarz/Forsberg. Neither of these goalies are 1A type goaltenders, which is what we need alongside Jack who is clearly a 1B at this point. Without adding a 1A this team is destined for another 1st round exit no matter what other additions they make.
Georgiev and Holtby are definitely both upgrades on Mrazek. The raw numbers paint one picture but if you look closer at shot volume (high shot vs low shot) and workload (starter vs tandem vs backup) splits, Georgiev and Holtby are both excellent 1A fits on this team.
Theres no other option at goalie.
There’s no available goalie that is anything better than what we have, that is 100% available. We will be looking at an insurance option like last year. Stolarz and Forsberg, are that.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
So Stars sign goaltender Braden Holtby to one-year $2m contract on the same day we sign Petr Mrazek to 3.8mx3. Seems like the same mistake choosing Simmonds over Perryx2.
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ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
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Stolarz and Forsberg are my two targets as well.
Higher than average SA/60 and HD/LD ratios for their careers and still put up decent numbers.
I'm all for giving Campbell a chance to turn around but Mrazek is very much on the terrible side of these ratios for his career.
Andrew Hammond, Charlie Lindgren, and Collin Delia are three other depth options that would be upgrades on Hutch and can play behind at least an average NHL defense.
as Pure as Evil
Registered User
anyone know why the hell keefe juggles the lines so much
our pairings or bottom 2 lines will play fantastic then the next game its completely shuffled and guys are uncomfortable.
our pairings or bottom 2 lines will play fantastic then the next game its completely shuffled and guys are uncomfortable.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
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This team doesn't need an insurance option though. It is a waste of assets. This team needs a trustworthy option. Stolarz and Forsberg are not that.
If there is no other option at goalie, then the Leafs will stick with Mrazek and Campbell as Dubas said he would in the media.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
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You are going to have to show me what numbers are making you think that, because I am looking at a guy whose numbers are below average across the board the past three years, and certainly nothing that suggests he is even a passable tandem starter.
Mrazek has looked consistently better than him most of the time. Georgiev has big games, but he follows it up with stretches of bad games... Which is very similar to what we already have right now.
Holtby, too, has had a little bit of a resurgence and has the past track record, but has generally been underwhelming since his Cup win as well. May be a worthwhile bet, but a clear upgrade he is not.
The only clear upgrades who may be available are Varlamov and Fleury. The rest are trying out something else and hoping they work out better.
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