GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VI

[TheShape]

This is a blatant lie. We had 20 slot shots last night, and the slot is the hardest place to get to on the ice. But don't let that get in the way of your narrative.

I wasn't referring to one game in isolation but alright. And these stats need context, Auston Matthews in the slot is the same "expected goals" % as David Kampf, so yeah take that for what it's worth.

Demko was great, it happens. But we need another shooting threat up front.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I wasn't referring to one game in isolation but alright. And these stats need context, Auston Matthews in the slot is the same "expected goals" % as David Kampf, so yeah take that for what it's worth.

Demko was great, it happens. But we need another shooting threat up front.

Nylander/JT super cold at 5v5.

 

[Griffin76]

I seriously don't get blaming JT for that pass. It was right on Willie's stick and he mishandled it. I get it if it is to a guy with stone hands but it was to our most skilled winger.

Lammikko retakes lead on rush | NHL.com

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I see it as the pass was way behind Nylander. He's fully extended backwards and it's still barely touching the heel of his stick. A person would have to dislocate their shoulders to take it cleanly. The pass looked bad live, worse in the replay and absolutely horrible in that frame. Maybe the smarter play would've been to let the puck go between the stick and foot and chase down the loose puck. But the Leafs don't do plays like that. It's all about possession. Or try and kick it up to his stick I guess.

 

[thusk]

I seriously don't get blaming JT for that pass. It was right on Willie's stick and he mishandled it. I get it if it is to a guy with stone hands but it was to our most skilled winger.

Lammikko retakes lead on rush | NHL.com

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It still a dangerous play when he just have to push it on the board and let nylander skate. You will never win that way in playoff, you just gonna be burn most of the time. I just can tell you, if they still do that kind of mistake during playoff, they will be out in 1st round again

 

[ToneDog]

I see it as the pass was way behind Nylander. He's fully extended backwards and it's still barely touching the heel of his stick. A person would have to dislocate their shoulders to take it cleanly. The pass looked bad live, worse in the replay and absolutely horrible in that frame. Maybe the smarter play would've been to let the puck go between the stick and foot and chase down the loose puck. But the Leafs don't do plays like that. It's all about possession. Or try and kick it up to his stick I guess.

Way behind is a stretch. Dislocate his shoulder ? Come on, are we watching the same video ?? It was a pass that a $7m, elite winger should be able to handle IMO. Willie played like ass last night.

 

[ToneDog]

It still a dangerous play when he just have to push it on the board and let nylander skate. You will never win that way in playoff, you just gonna be burn most of the time. I just can tell you, if they still do that kind of mistake during playoff, they will be out in 1st round again

There were 3 Canucks around him. Sure he could have played it along the boards but it was a decent pass that a skilled player should be able to handle IMO.

 

[Leafs1991]

Way behind is a stretch. Dislocate his shoulder ? Come on, are we watching the same video ?? It was a pass that a $7m, elite winger should be able to handle IMO. Willie played like ass last night.

Mistakes happen. Why are you so upset? You do know the best players in the NHL including Crosby, Ovie, McDavid etc, all mishandle passes too, right?

 

[ToneDog]

Nylander/JT super cold at 5v5.

That line won't work when both wingers played like crap last night. Kerfoot was flipped for Mikheyev and Willie took most of the night off.

 

[ToneDog]

Mistakes happen. Why are you so upset? You do know the best players in the NHL including Crosby, Ovie, McDavid etc, all mishandle passes too, right?

Who's upset? I just don't agree that that was a dumb/bad pass by Tavares and that Willie should/could have had it.

 

[WTFMAN99]

That line won't work when both wingers played like crap last night. Kerfoot was flipped for Mikheyev and Willie took most of the night off.

Does breaking up Marner and Matthews make us a deeper team? I can't imagine Matthews would drop off too much with 88 there and Marner can usually get JT going.

 

[ToneDog]

Does breaking up Marner and Matthews make us a deeper team? I can't imagine Matthews would drop off too much with 88 there and Marner can usually get JT going.

I don't mind that change but truth be told 88 has not been the same player he was earlier in the season when some were calling him our best player. JT has been struggling some after COVID but he is clearly better with 16 than 88. Kerfoot has been good but that line needs a Hyman type winger.

 

[LeafSteel]

Just imagining a JT Miller LW on Tavares and Nylander’s line…….

Wow.

 

[thusk]

There were 3 Canucks around him. Sure he could have played it along the boards but it was a decent pass that a skilled player should be able to handle IMO.

Why should he try a low % play when he can do a high % play who give the same exact result if working at the end?

 

[ToneDog]

Why should he try a low % play when he can do a high % play who give the same exact result if working at the end?

Good question. Love to hear what JT's answer would be. He clearly was pissed when the goal was scored.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Leafs - Canadiens
Josh Anderson & Ben Chiarot (50% ret)
for
Nick Robertson, Alex Kerfoot, Nick Ritchie & 1st

Marner - Matthews - Anderson
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Mikheyev - - Kampf - - Kase
Engvall - Spezza - Simmonds
Clifford

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Chiarot
Sandin - Holl

Your uncanny ability to make both the current team and prospects pool shittier in one trade never ceases to amaze me

 

[Nylanderthal]

That poster somehow makes the Leafs significantly worse in the present and future in every trade proposal. It's quite an accomplishment.

I’m always impressed by their uncanny ability to always do so, and it not be an OBVIOUS troll job

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Mistakes happen. Why are you so upset? You do know the best players in the NHL including Crosby, Ovie, McDavid etc, all mishandle passes too, right?

THE inference is that WIlly has disappeared Again

First of the year he was engaged behind the net in front in the corners now he is back to the old inconsistent willy who is not engaged and try’s flybys

 

[Cherry Picker]

I predict Travis Dermott will be packaged with Ritchie to a team with cap space in exchange for a mid round pick. Move will clear an additional 2.8M for deadline additions.

 

[Judas Tavares]

really wondering if it isn’t just that. We need a top4 D too, either for Muzzin or Holl or in case of injury. We need more grit. But we also need to curb these silly habits we have that indicate we’re mentally weak still - plenty of blown leads, getting scored on in the first 1-2 minutes, got thoroughly pushed around in Calgary. There is a lot to address.

This is the biggest thing for me. Getting over the mental challenge would be bigger than any deadline addition. Even with goaltending inconsistencies and defensive issues, this team is good enough to make a run on what they have alone. I mean any top 10 team has the ability to go all the way each year, if not, the Cup would be awarded along with the President's Trophy. It is also why I find it tough to evaluate the team around the edges in order to fill those edges. Like they can easily be filled with a move here and a move there, but those moves won't matter if the team can't get over the mental hurdle. Had they made a deep run and let's say lost to Vegas in 6 or 7, it would be easy to go, ok they are a Bunting/Kase/Kampf etc away from winning it all. But unfortunately, the mental hurdle from the big guns has to be solved first before anything else like giveaways, systematic breakdowns, secondary scoring, grit, clutch goaltending, etc... can be.

I don't really see why people are all that surprised about this though. Dubas didn't sign him to a 2.5 x 2 contract because he was nice. Other teams wanted him, and a stretch where he has a crappy shooting percentage is not going to change that. It is mostly a matter of who can afford him cap-wise really.

Agreed. Ritchie has been awful. But this place has too much of a "Well after this small sample size, I've made up my mind, this guy sucks and it would take an added 1st just to offload him!" That is never usually the case in the real world. It is always easier to give up a player than this place thinks. There would be interest in Ritchie. There sure as hell would be interest in Mrazek. Armchair statements won't change that.

Muzzin, right now, has been a larger problem than Holl. I think everyone expected Muzzin's skating to be his downfall, but it is his IQ which has failed him the most this year. He struggles to play even a simple game at times, and that is a problem for a veteran like him. It is on him to turn things around and to get his head in the game. Same goes for goaltending. It is mostly all mental right now.

Holl has performed very well in his role, even though people like the crap on him at every available opportunity.

I think the move to make is to get a solid 13th forward who could potentially steal Spezza or Simmonds' spot on the 4th line and maybe a more defensively-oriented version of Dermott as a #7. Doesn't need to be a big or physical guy, but just someone who can reliably handle defensive zone responsibilities. Those trades (or trade) can easily be cost effective and simple. We don't need a big fish, or a monumental change.

Both Holl and Muzzin have struggled. But Muzzin has struggled more than people would be willing to admit. Holl is a Dubas toy whipping boy while Muzzin is a tough Ontario guy with a winning history. So he will get a longer emotional leash from the fans while a lot or most of the blame would be deflected to Holl. And sure, Holl deserves a lot. But Muzzin deserves almost just as much, but you won't see it for the most part here. At this point, it would be nice to upgrade upon both if possible, but it's likely not very possible.

 

[jaric1862]

Nashville would be an excellent fit for Ritchie. They have cap space for him, or can give us Myers who has the same contract.

Calgary is another, and if they don't want to take his money pure, we can take back Pitlick's expiring contract. Pitlick has sucked, but he is decent depth if he can get back to form. Calgary also have his brother.

Ottawa is not competitive this year but I can see them giving him a chance if he comes for free.

That excludes deals where we can trade cap with another team, which the Leafs may also consider.

This is exactly who I thought of too. He fits their identity like a glove.

 

[Kurtz]

I think that Kerfoot is a goner.



That's one spot we can upgrade with someone physical.

 

[TMLAM34]

I predict Travis Dermott will be packaged with Ritchie to a team with cap space in exchange for a mid round pick. Move will clear an additional 2.8M for deadline additions.

Dermott + Ritchie for Myers.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

That's a great stat.

Is there anywhere that you can look at individual slot chances by player? Does Naturalstattrick have them?

Unfortunately not, it's from sportlogic so whatever Mike Kelly releases publicly is what's available.

 

[Duke16]

I had posted this to Twitter, but I think the best way the Leafs could successfully come out of a Ritchie trade without retaining or paying to dump him is by taking advantage of the trend we've seen where SPC slots have been valued as assets.

The Leafs are at 45/50 contracts, so they could tag on a few extra without greatly hampering their flexibility.

Someone replied that PHI could be a spot since they are at 49/50 contracts and are likely to get a multi-player package for Giroux.

Mock proposal:

Something like Nate Thompson or Nick Seeler, and two of Matt Strome/Maxim Sushko/German Rubtsov for Nick Ritchie.

The Leafs don't add much in value here, but win out by not retaining or paying to dump him and it helps Philly facilitate the impending Giroux trade.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

I wasn't referring to one game in isolation but alright. And these stats need context, Auston Matthews in the slot is the same "expected goals" % as David Kampf, so yeah take that for what it's worth.

Demko was great, it happens. But we need another shooting threat up front.

You said that the Leafs struggle to get to the middle. They're one of the best teams in the NHL at getting to the slot. In fact if you take a look at hockeyviz's 5v5 heat map its a big red blob right in the slot.

I do agree with you that we need more finishing talent, I think especially on the 2nd line LW slot. But to say the Leafs have been a perimeter team this season is false.