GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VI

[notdoneyet]

Well that's true, Mayfield has a deterence factor that Holl doesn't. Also reach and size matters

That being said, I am not willing to part any significant asset for him
If anything I'll call Kraken for Oleksiak ....

Yes oleksiak is the one we desperately need

 

[Dekes For Days]

Their forecheck success rate drops to 34% in knockout games (54% in regular situations). In the Columbus series, their forecheck chances went to 0% in game 5. On the other hand, Columbus' forecheck success rate went up including their forecheck chances.

I appreciate you actually trying to support your position, but I'm curious to know where you got this data from and what time period it's supposed to cover? That doesn't seem accurate. Also to be honest, it's a bit hard to get a read on what this could mean, as you've switched back and forth between success rate and chances in different samples, and given numbers for Toronto but not Columbus (which is also just one of our opponents, that we faced years ago with a pretty different team).

Regardless, it's not exactly a surprise that Columbus gets more forecheck chances. That's their entire game, whereas we rarely employ a dump and chase mentality because our game is centered around puck possession and we're talented enough to enter the zone and generate chances without first giving up the puck. It's such a random isolated stat to focus on, and it seems designed to shine the best light possible on Columbus' game and worst light possible on ours.

I'm not really sure how you've concluded that physicality = forecheck chances.

That's unacceptable when the other team is piling up the chances

They didn't "pile up chances" though. We had more chances than them...

It indicates a team that has no heart or grit under duress while the forwards provide little support.

It doesn't indicate any of that...

Even their series winner was off a successful forecheck where Toronto folded under pressure.

That's not really an accurate description of what happened on the series winner. If you go back and watch the play leading up to the series winner, Columbus didn't even touch the puck until the shooter.

It was dumped in. Our defenseman hustled and won the race to the puck. They put it along the boards to supporting forwards. We had a two on one at the puck, and a 3rd forward close as a relief option, and Hyman for some reason decided to weakly throw it up the boards instead. The defenseman picked it up and floated a weak wrister from the blueline, and Andersen let in a horrible goal.

Which allowed the best defensive team in the league that year to sit further back in their own zone and more easily deny forecheck pressure for pretty much the whole game, making dump and chase an even worse idea.

Their 2nd goal was also not "forecheck pressure" or "physicality". It was a weak shot from a horrible angle along the goal line. And Montreal's opening goal in game 7 was a weak wrister on a well-covered rush chance from outside the circle...

The Leafs have looked timid in all of their deciding games. This has been clear to the eye test let alone the underlying stats.

All teams look somewhat more cautious in deciding games, but I don't see them as "timid", and the stats don't support that. What I see and what the stats see are us generally controlling the pace, flow, and balance of chances, but the opposing goalies going full-on prime Hasek, and our goalies giving up horrible, back-breaking goals early in deciding games - allowing our opponents to play to their strengths.

Even if there was any "timidness" in our play, I'm not sure how one could conclude that that is a function of the physicality of our players, or an issue with our system, instead of it being a function of playing the majority of these games with the knowledge that your season is likely over if you allow another goal, mixed with eroding trust in your goalie to make the big save.

They definitely can and should win games against teams like Columbus and Montreal despite these flaws. The skill gap was so high, they really should have got the job done.

We should beat them, and if you play those series over multiple times, we'd win the majority of them. But this is hockey, and I think you overestimate the discrepancy between the best and worst teams in this league, and underestimate the impact of goaltending. Which is the real difference in the deciding games of these series, not physicality.

I want to see them get over the hump but I have question marks about the system in a playoff setting.

But this type of system has worked countless times in a playoff setting, so I'm not sure why you think it can't work for us.

 

[Jozay]

Friedman on 32 thoughts: Manson is a player "they're (Leafs) really taking a deep look at"

 

[ShaneFalco]

Friedman on 32 thought: Manson is a player "they're (Leafs) really taking a deep look at"

Annually

 

[ACC1224]

Friedman on 32 thoughts: Manson is a player "they're (Leafs) really taking a deep look at"

should change 'really' to 'always'

 

[pspot]

Rakell is another player I think would fit really nicely

 

[shortfuze]

A definite possibility. Sure they might throw the Leafs a bone like the Leafs did for Gally last year but if you use him in a deal with Dermott to get an upgrade on D, you probably have to add IMO.

ya, i would agree with that.

 

[jaric1862]

Mayfield is not more physical than Holl, folks.

Are you only looking at hits and then making a judgement on who's more physical?

 

[WTFMAN99]

See this is where the Insiders and the ratings fishing begins for TSN and Sportsnet, last week it was all about the Leafs wanting someone with term and now we're looking at Manson, a clear rental.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Has Anaheim confirmed to be selling even though they're in a playoff spot?

 

[ShaneFalco]

Has Anaheim confirmed to be selling even though they're in a playoff spot?

The talking heads don't care

 

[123offtheglass]

oops

 

[Legion34]

See this is where the Insiders and the ratings fishing begins for TSN and Sportsnet, last week it was all about the Leafs wanting someone with term and now we're looking at Manson, a clear rental.

not if they can sign him I guess…
Friedman was talking about the American issue.

but the guy is Canadian as they come really. Grew up with his dad playing on Canadian teams. Lived in to and the family is in Saskatchewan.

seems to go back for summer.

not sure if Covid rules affect ir

 

[Martin Skoula]

Didn't Manson just get injured recently?

 

[LeafChief]

oops

I very much like Lauzon.

 

[123offtheglass]

I very much like Lauzon.

Statistically he's having a down year which is good as he becomes RFA & to acquire. I definitely prefer him to Dermott.

He could be an add that's a safe bet; nothing should be off the table for Seattle.

 

[BertCorbeau]

The talking heads don't care

Anything for the clicks, eh. Par for the course.

Wonder if the Leafs might be interested in De Haan out of Chicago .. They had interest back when Carolina traded him in 2019. And event though he's a pending UFA, there might be some interest in re-signing him (he's currently 30). He also may not cost that much compared to other options.

Seems like the Leafs are satisfied with their forwards. I can't seem them pursuing a big fish for the top 6 since the Matthews/Tavares lines have some good chemistry, and there are viable third/fourth line options.

I still like Tyler Motte .. I think he would bring a lot more energy in a playoff series compared to Engvall.

I would also be interest ing Hakanpaa out of Dallas.

 

[Fogelhund]

Didn't Manson just get injured recently?

Out until about the end of Feb with an Oblique muscle injury, after a tussle with Greenway from the Wild.

 

[TMLAM34]

Rakell is another player I think would fit really nicely

Rakell would be a nice addition, but his price tag to acquire and potentially re-sign will probably be way higher than what he’s actually worth.

 

[Torontonian]

I don't think Oleksiak is available, they just signed him to a big contract to have him avoid going to UFA.

Soucy on the other hand? Sure.

Oleksiak on that deal is awful, Dubas would have been crucified for signing a player like that for 5 years at 4.6m

Anyways, seen your rant about not trading assets at the TDL, Teams like Pittsburgh, Tampa, Washington trade a first every year and prospects because you only have a certain amount of time of legitimate stars, Toronto is no different, every year they should be pushing the chips into the middle of the table with the core of Matthews/Marner/JT/Nylander/Rielly. Washington lost in the second round 8 years in a row, still every year they went all in.

In a ideal world, Toronto trades their assets for players that will give them two+ playoff runs like JT Miller or someone. I am not against trading premium assets as long as its for someone that's worth it, think Hertl/Giroux/Forsberg/Lindholm, not trading assests for depth players like Boyle/Plek/Foligno, etc.

 

[TMLAM34]

To Toronto: J.T. Miller (50% retained)
To Vancouver: Alex Kerfoot + Nick Robertson + 2023 1st Rounder

Get er done Dubie!

 

[Martin Skoula]

Out until about the end of Feb with an Oblique muscle injury, after a tussle with Greenway from the Wild.

Really hoping we learned our lesson about expensive injured rentals with a lot of physical miles on them.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Oleksiak on that deal is awful, Dubas would have been crucified for signing a player like that for 5 years at 4.6m

Anyways, seen your rant about not trading assets at the TDL, Teams like Pittsburgh, Tampa, Washington trade a first every year and prospects because you only have a certain amount of time of legitimate stars, Toronto is no different, every year they should be pushing the chips into the middle of the table with the core of Matthews/Marner/JT/Nylander/Rielly. Washington lost in the second round 8 years in a row, still every year they went all in.

In a ideal world, Toronto trades their assets for players that will give them two+ playoff runs like JT Miller or someone. I am not against trading premium assets as long as its for someone that's worth it, think Hertl/Giroux/Forsberg/Lindholm, not trading assests for depth players like Boyle/Plek/Foligno, etc.

Teams like Pittsburgh, Tampa and Washington don't always trade their 1st and they've had success at some point to make you feel about expending the assets. We're talking literally 0-5 in 1st round now, if you count CBJ as a playoff round

Washington
Boston x2
Columbus
Montreal

The opponents have arguably gotten easier but we've not managed to win a damn thing despite multiple 1sts and prospects being expended, sometimes not going big at the deadline is okay too.

I did take a look though;

Washington

2021 they made a bad trade for Mantha, using Vrana, 1st, 2nd and Panik to do it. Arguably Panik was a cap dump but not a strong endorsement for going big.

In 2020 they gave up a 2nd and 3rd for Dillon and a 3rd for Kovalchuk. Dillon is kind of forgivable but that Kovalchuk deal wasn't so good lol.

Nothing notable in 2019

In 2018 when they won a cup, they just used a 3rd for Kempny after being burned the year before on the Shattenkirk acquisition which was a 1st and Sandford.

Tampa

They have recently went for it with 1sts going for Savard, Coleman and Goodrow.

2019 though? Just traded a 5th and Koekkoek (kinda trending towards bust/replacement level) for Rutta who also wasn't clicking in Chicago.
2018? McDonagh (had an extra year+extended) and JT Miller (extended+team control) for 1st, Namestnikov, Howden, Hajek, 2nd round pick, costly but didn't lose the trade.
2017 - Actually sold because of injuries, they got a 2nd from us for Boyle.

Pittsburgh

2021 - Carter for a 3rd...good deal.
2020 - 1st, Addison, Galchenyuk for Zucker...thought the deal seemed better at the time, Zucker hasn't fit in as well
3rd for Marleau, Kahun for Rodrigues and Sheary
2019 - Gudbranson came in for Pearson
Bjugstad and McCann came in for Brassard, Sheahan, 2nd and 2 4ths...honestly don't think that was worth it
Sold Oleksiak for a 4th


I'll leave it to you to determine how many playoff series each team won the in the last 5 years, I would be much less resistant if we had a single round win under our belts.

 

[Pinto]

De Haan would not surprise me at all. They were pushing hard to sign him when they signed Tavares and had interest again when Carolina traded him.

 

[TheShape]

De Haan doesn't make us any more difficult to play against in our own end. Maybe the price is too high on a top 4 D man, but either way we need someone with some sandpaper back there.