GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART V

[SeaOfBlue]

This is BS, of course physical players can play here (Muzzin and Simmonds). However, you need to be able to process the game and make quick plays to play here. The reason Ritchie doesn't work is because he is a f***ing idiot, both on and off the ice. Not a bad guy, just really f***ing dumb.

Ritchie needs to go to Florida. They seem to make a name out of turning guys like him into stars.

 

[LeafChief]

Question for those that understand the inner workings of the cap better than I do. Let's assume Ritchie remains what he is and doesn't really bring much to the lineup.

I know that taking on LTIR contracts is not beneficial because it prevents you from accruing cap space. With that said, for next season would it make more sense to keep Ritchie or to trade him for someone that will be on LTIR all season (i.e. Micheal Ferland from Vancouver).

Not suggesting that as a trade, just wondering which scenario benefits the team more (assuming Ritchie doesn't bounce back and continues to be somewhat useless here).

 

[BertCorbeau]

I would probably push back a bit on this if I had to. Theoretically, the price FLA paid was high-ish relative to his output. The prospect Emil Heineman was also a 2nd round pick, so we're probably talking Roni Hirvonen as comparable. Hard to say what would have happened with that 2nd rounder - perhaps that 2022 2nd was our 2021 2nd... but then Dubas may not have spent all his allowance on those rentals last year. But in theory maybe that means no pick for Knies.

Going back to the time, I really think most people here thought Bennett was a complete bust.

Bennet had underwhelmed in Calgary barely being able to show he could stick at a centre. It was a high price based on his draft pedigree and a risky gamble. Also he carried a high qualifying offer so retaining him even if he did decently would be tough.

Florida swung for the fences on a pitch that was outside of the strike zone (since usually theses gambles don't pay off as often) and they connected.

But keep in mind Bennett is getting 2C duties with first PP time (average 3 minutes per game). He also hasn't improved that much in the face-off circle and is shooting 17% (well above his 11% career average).

He wouldn't have that opportunity with the Leafs .. so his offensive numbers wouldn't be as high in all likeness. He might have been an effective player but he landed in a prime spot in Florida and has seized the opportunity.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Question for those that understand the inner workings of the cap better than I do. Let's assume Ritchie remains what he is and doesn't really bring much to the lineup.

I know that taking on LTIR contracts is not beneficial because it prevents you from accruing cap space. With that said, for next season would it make more sense to keep Ritchie or to trade him for someone that will be on LTIR all season (i.e. Micheal Ferland from Vancouver).

Not suggesting that as a trade, just wondering which scenario benefits the team more (assuming Ritchie doesn't bounce back and continues to be somewhat useless here).

Probably keeping Ritchie. He can actually play and provides high quality depth. There is a good chance he bounces back (he already looked much better in recent games) and there is a much better chance at getting value out of him at some point than Ferland.

Only benefit with Ferland is if you need that buried Ritchie money and are willing to sacrifice the ability to accrue cap for it.

I am not worried about moving Ritchie. It may have to happen in the offseason, but I doubt we even have to pay anything to move him. There is a lot of upside for a lot of teams with very little to no downside.

 

[TMLAM34]

To Toronto: Philippe Myers
To Nashville: Travis Dermott + Nick Ritchie

1.45 million dollars in cap savings.

 

[The Podium]

Question for those that understand the inner workings of the cap better than I do. Let's assume Ritchie remains what he is and doesn't really bring much to the lineup.

I know that taking on LTIR contracts is not beneficial because it prevents you from accruing cap space. With that said, for next season would it make more sense to keep Ritchie or to trade him for someone that will be on LTIR all season (i.e. Micheal Ferland from Vancouver).

Not suggesting that as a trade, just wondering which scenario benefits the team more (assuming Ritchie doesn't bounce back and continues to be somewhat useless here).

Would make more sense to buy him out or retain 50% for the year

 

[X66]

If we were to get Manson I’d play him with Rielly and use Brodie with Muzzin.

 

[LeafChief]

If we were to get Manson I’d play him with Rielly and use Brodie with Muzzin.

Would it make sense to include Holl in a Manson trade? Clears cap for next year to re-sign Manson. May bring down the cost of the acquisition.

Manson @ 50% for Holl, SDA and a 3rd? Am I way off?

Rielly - Manson
Muzzin - Brodie
Sandin - Dermott/Liljegren/veteran acquisition (similar to Bogo last year)

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Simmonds
Foligno
Ritchie
Bogosian
Muzzin
Clifford

I'm sure I'm forgetting more. If your point is that the GM and staff haven't attempted to add physicality to the lineup, I don't know what to tell you. You aren't paying attention.

You need to be physical but also know how to play hockey to play in this system. Simply adding physicality that can't play isn't the answer.

It seems like a Keefe problem.

All of these players were far more assertive and physical on other teams. This includes Muzzin. The guy barely lays a momentum-changing hit nowadays because Keefe has a system designed to avoid such contact as it takes you out of position. In comparison, Muzzin laid out many big hits in LA when they won.

Even Keefe's language says it all about his opinion on physical play and the extracurricular stuff.

Just yesterday he said, "All of that crap at the end of the second period..."

He literally views physical play and rough stuff as "crap".

That message gets sent down to the team and you end up seeing what we see. I think Keefe underestimates how physical playoff hockey is. The rules get thrown out half the time with players roughing it up during and after every play. This is one of the reasons they've gone up in a series twice under Keefe and choked once the other team got desperate.

 

[LeafChief]

It seems like a Keefe problem.

All of these players were far more assertive and physical on other teams. This includes Muzzin. The guy barely lays a momentum-changing hit nowadays because Keefe has a system designed to avoid such contact as it takes you out of position. In comparison, Muzzin laid out many big hits in LA when they won.

Even Keefe's language says it all about his opinion on physical play and the extracurricular stuff.

Just yesterday he said, "All of that crap at the end of the second period..."

He literally views physical play and rough stuff as "crap".

That message gets sent down to the team and you end up seeing what we see. I think Keefe underestimates how physical playoff hockey is. The rules get thrown out half the time with players roughing it up during and after every play. This is one of the reasons they've gone up in a series twice under Keefe and choked once the other team got desperate.

I think you may be reading a little too much into it.

Keefe had no problem throwing Simmonds, Ritchie and Clifford over the boards in that game against Winnipeg when Stanley was running around like an assclown. If what you said were true, those players would have been stapled to the bench.

 

[BertCorbeau]

It seems like a Keefe problem.

All of these players were far more assertive and physical on other teams. This includes Muzzin. The guy barely lays a momentum-changing hit nowadays because Keefe has a system designed to avoid such contact as it takes you out of position. In comparison, Muzzin laid out many big hits in LA when they won.

Even Keefe's language says it all about his opinion on physical play and the extracurricular stuff.

Just yesterday he said, "All of that crap at the end of the second period..."

He literally views physical play and rough stuff as "crap".

That message gets sent down to the team and you end up seeing what we see. I think Keefe underestimates how physical playoff hockey is. The rules get thrown out half the time with players roughing it up during and after every play. This is one of the reasons they've gone up in a series twice under Keefe and choked once the other team got desperate.

The team wasn't all that more physical with Babcock either, so I don't think it's a Keefe problem.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We're plenty physical when we need to be. Fans just tend to notice actual effective physicality where you get or protect the puck less than the I'm-gonna-crush-you moments, and it's pretty hard to go around racking up hit totals when you have the puck most of the game.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

We're plenty physical when we need to be. Fans just tend to notice actual effective physicality where you get or protect the puck less than the I'm-gonna-crush-you moments, and it's pretty hard to go around racking up hit totals when you have the puck most of the game.

Tampa was 1st in hits per game during the 2020 playoffs. Their possession metrics were also through the roof. They won the cup.

The Leafs were last that year.

Last playoffs Tampa was also higher than Toronto and won the cup. Montreal was 1st in hits per game and made the final.

Of course, this is not the only metric to consider and I'm not suggesting it is. That's a very basic line of thinking. However, there is no doubt the Leafs have little idea on how to play physical, playoff hockey and it shows when they're under siege in knockout games. Other teams start laying out bodies, grabbing, cross-checking, holding, and these guys go into their shells.

Possession hockey is good in the regular season but the rules change in the playoffs. Honestly, it should still be good enough to beat teams like Montreal and Columbus, but eventually, teams like the Leafs and Avalanche lose out because they don't play physical enough.

 

[LeafChief]

Here are my thoughts. Ducks retain 50% on Manson who is a UFA. In return they get Holl who can fill his spot for this season and next at half the cost. They also get SDA who is an okay centre prospect and a third round pick.

Phillippe Myers has been a scratch for the Predators for some reason. They take our scratch (Ritchie) and get Dermott who would play in their top 6. Maybe they throw us a mid round pick?

Clifford doesn't need to be there which brings us under the cap.

Leaves room for maybe something around Hagel who is signed at around 1.3million for the next two seasons. Very similar player to Bunting. 23 years old. Would be a solid playoff player and could easily replace Mikheyev next season who is likely to leave.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Tampa was 1st in hits per game during the 2020 playoffs. Their possession metrics were also through the roof. They won the cup.

The Leafs were last that year.

Last playoffs Tampa was also higher than Toronto and won the cup. Montreal was 1st in hits per game and made the final.

Of course, this is not the only metric to consider and I'm not suggesting it is. That's a very basic line of thinking. However, there is no doubt the Leafs have little idea on how to play physical, playoff hockey and it shows when they're under siege in knockout games. Other teams start laying out bodies, grabbing, cross-checking, holding, and these guys go into their shells.

Possession hockey is good in the regular season but the rules change in the playoffs. Honestly, it should still be good enough to beat teams like Montreal and Columbus, but eventually, teams like the Leafs and Avalanche lose out because they don't play physical enough.

Pens were 5th last and 3rd last in hits per game when they won it back to back.

Leafs have to change their identity to move up the hits per game ranks.

We're closer to the cup if we accept our identity and kill them with possession and points. It's not like our defence is trash and we're going to have to win 5-4. We're capable of holding teams to 1-2 goals at our best.


It depends on the name coming back before you can truly decide though but on the surface there's no issue if we go the Pens route.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Tampa was 1st in hits per game during the 2020 playoffs. Their possession metrics were also through the roof. They won the cup.

The Leafs were last that year.

Last playoffs Tampa was also higher than Toronto and won the cup. Montreal was 1st in hits per game and made the final.

Of course, this is not the only metric to consider and I'm not suggesting it is. That's a very basic line of thinking. However, there is no doubt the Leafs have little idea on how to play physical, playoff hockey and it shows when they're under siege in knockout games. Other teams start laying out bodies, grabbing, cross-checking, holding, and these guys go into their shells.

Possession hockey is good in the regular season but the rules change in the playoffs. Honestly, it should still be good enough to beat teams like Montreal and Columbus, but eventually, teams like the Leafs and Avalanche lose out because they don't play physical enough.

In 2018-2019, we had more hits than STL, who won the Cup.
In 2017-2018, we had almost as many hits as WSH, who won the Cup.
In 2016-2017, we had a lot more hits than PIT, who won the Cup.

And even then, CBJ was also near the bottom in hits when they beat us. They were not physically dominating us. In fact, they didn't really beat us in any area except goaltending.

A lot of these successful teams were in the middle of the pack, or even lower, when it came to hits. Conversely, much of the time, they are near or at the top in terms of possession... And if you don't have possession, then you sure as well hope you have a goalie who can cover your ass. It is also harder to hit people when you have possession, hence why you typically find the teams with most of the possession typically do not have many hits.

We, unfortunately, are on the losing end of a goalie who covers a teams' ass when they are getting killed in possession, and combine that with goaltending that can't keep up with Keefe's defense and gives up weak, back-breaking goals at poor times. Florida faced a similar (but much more unfortunate) fate against Tampa. They were running circles around Tampa, but couldn't get goaltending to save their lives. They had an .875 that series. If Florida even gets .900 goaltending, Tampa is probably loses in 6 instead of winning in 6. Florida was in a lot of tight games but then had Bobrovsky give up a bundle of crap goals in a short period of time to completely take Florida out of at least 2 games that they could have easily won.

 

[TML1967]

Its actually amazing how many guys who were castoffs on other teams, seemingly have just figured it out on Florida. What a story

I guess the big debate is did they just figure it out, or is the Flordia organization seeing something / teaching something that others are lacking.
Could it be their analytics or scouting department likes finding guys with a specific problem they think they can fix? Similar to how a ton of Leafs fans (like myself) think Barb Underhill can help improve guys where edgework or skating is their biggest issue.

 

[TML1967]

I thought Buffalo for Bjork gets the AAV slightly down.

Or depending what Chicago does, maybe they'd give Khaira and Borgstrom for Ritchie.

Khaira and Borgstom would be awesome. Khaira when he is at his best is a really good 4th liner, and in Borgstrom I still think is a late bloomer who already ha shown he is good defensively as a C.

 

[zeke]

It seems like a Keefe problem.

All of these players were far more assertive and physical on other teams. This includes Muzzin.
.

This is all BS.

fact of the matter is nobody is as physical as you think they are when you finally get the chance to watch them every shift every game instead of just highlights.

 

[Ashdown2]

Tampa was 1st in hits per game during the 2020 playoffs. Their possession metrics were also through the roof. They won the cup.

The Leafs were last that year.

Last playoffs Tampa was also higher than Toronto and won the cup. Montreal was 1st in hits per game and made the final.

Of course, this is not the only metric to consider and I'm not suggesting it is. That's a very basic line of thinking. However, there is no doubt the Leafs have little idea on how to play physical, playoff hockey and it shows when they're under siege in knockout games. Other teams start laying out bodies, grabbing, cross-checking, holding, and these guys go into their shells.

Possession hockey is good in the regular season but the rules change in the playoffs. Honestly, it should still be good enough to beat teams like Montreal and Columbus, but eventually, teams like the Leafs and Avalanche lose out because they don't play physical enough.

thats very simplistic view ........ winning and losing has more to do with winning the special teams battle

Would it make sense to include Holl in a Manson trade? Clears cap for next year to re-sign Manson. May bring down the cost of the acquisition.

Manson @ 50% for Holl, SDA and a 3rd? Am I way off?

Rielly - Manson
Muzzin - Brodie
Sandin - Dermott/Liljegren/veteran acquisition (similar to Bogo last year)

yes ........ would you say yes to that if you were the ducks ? if your not going to throw in a noteworthy prospect your going to have to give up a first especially if they are retaining salary
also i would love to see a handful of games with sandin and holl together again... it might be a perfect 3rd pair.


personally i would love to see the leafs go hard at both rackell and manson. it ould cost a fortune including picks, amirov, robertson, dermott etc. but holy hell if they couldnt win a round with that new lineup they should blow up the team and get all those picks and prospects back

 

[TML1967]

Here are my thoughts. Ducks retain 50% on Manson who is a UFA. In return they get Holl who can fill his spot for this season and next at half the cost. They also get SDA who is an okay centre prospect and a third round pick.

Phillippe Myers has been a scratch for the Predators for some reason. They take our scratch (Ritchie) and get Dermott who would play in their top 6. Maybe they throw us a mid round pick?

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Clifford doesn't need to be there which brings us under the cap.

Leaves room for maybe something around Hagel who is signed at around 1.3million for the next two seasons. Very similar player to Bunting. 23 years old. Would be a solid playoff player and could easily replace Mikheyev next season who is likely to leave.

If you can add in a guy like Hagel for future/picks id be all for it. Bumping one of Spezza or Simmonds of the 4th line every game would be huge. Let them swap every other game and rest. Id also be willing to move Kerfoot for Hagel, where I think Kerfoots counting stats may make it so its close to an even swap.

Spezza this year just doesnt look as effective as years past for us, Im thinking maybe covid has hit him harder or his age has caught up with him more.

 

[LeafChief]

thats very simplistic view ........ winning and losing has more to do with winning the special teams battle





yes ........ would you say yes to that if you were the ducks ? if your not going to throw in a noteworthy prospect your going to have to give up a first especially if they are retaining salary
also i would love to see a handful of games with sandin and holl together again... it might be a perfect 3rd pair.


personally i would love to see the leafs go hard at both rackell and manson. it ould cost a fortune including picks, amirov, robertson, dermott etc. but holy hell if they couldnt win a round with that new lineup they should blow up the team and get all those picks and prospects back

I'm having trouble putting a value on Manson. That's why he asked. He has had 1 really good season in the last 4 years and has been pretty average since. What he brings over Holl is that he's a tough son of a bitch and uses the body. Outside of that, they are very similar in terms of production/metrics.

 

[Ashdown2]

I'm having trouble putting a value on Manson. That's why he asked. He has had 1 really good season in the last 4 years and has been pretty average since. What he brings over Holl is that he's a tough son of a bitch and uses the body. Outside of that, they are very similar in terms of production/metrics.

david savard is probably a comparable from last year and it took a first, 3rd and 4th round pick

 

[Eternal Leaf]

In 2018-2019, we had more hits than STL, who won the Cup.
In 2017-2018, we had almost as many hits as WSH, who won the Cup.
In 2016-2017, we had a lot more hits than PIT, who won the Cup.

And even then, CBJ was also near the bottom in hits when they beat us. They were not physically dominating us. In fact, they didn't really beat us in any area except goaltending.

A lot of these successful teams were in the middle of the pack, or even lower, when it came to hits. Conversely, much of the time, they are near or at the top in terms of possession... And if you don't have possession, then you sure as well hope you have a goalie who can cover your ass. It is also harder to hit people when you have possession, hence why you typically find the teams with most of the possession typically do not have many hits.

We, unfortunately, are on the losing end of a goalie who covers a teams' ass when they are getting killed in possession, and combine that with goaltending that can't keep up with Keefe's defense and gives up weak, back-breaking goals at poor times. Florida faced a similar (but much more unfortunate) fate against Tampa. They were running circles around Tampa, but couldn't get goaltending to save their lives. They had an .875 that series. If Florida even gets .900 goaltending, Tampa is probably loses in 6 instead of winning in 6. Florida was in a lot of tight games but then had Bobrovsky give up a bundle of crap goals in a short period of time to completely take Florida out of at least 2 games that they could have easily won.

Yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

Like I said hits are not the only metric as that is indeed a basic thought process. The game is too complex for that. Unfortunately, the Leafs don't have any noticeable advantage over the other contenders. All of the contenders can match them physically and most will outdo them on skill too. Tampa is just better across the board plus it has winning experience.

I think the Leafs can take a step up if they were more physically involved.

 

[zeke]

Yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

Like I said hits are not the only metric as that is indeed a basic thought process. The game is too complex for that. Unfortunately, the Leafs don't have any noticeable advantage over the other contenders. All of the contenders can match them physically and most will outdo them on skill too. Tampa is just better across the board plus it has winning experience.

I think the Leafs can take a step up if they were more physically involved.

The Leafs are clearly better defensively than the Panthers and clearly have more offensive depth than the Bolts.