And Addison has the ability at such a young age - why the rush to get rid of him, especially if Dumba is gone and there is no one I'd consider in Minnesota's defense I'd consider to be an offensive defenseman.
Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!
- Thread starter TaLoN
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I love the subjective number of goals set here to meet the criteria. Both Dumba and Spurgeon have scored 14 in a single season. Spurgeon has 5 seasons of 10 or more goals and is on pace for another. Dumba has four seasons of 10 or more goals and probably would have more if there weren’t pandemic shortened seasons and injuries.
If you’re going to knock those two, it should be because they haven’t done a great job of staying healthy.
That's why I think they need to make a trade for a defenseman to push everyone down a notch:
- Spurgeon
Brodin - Dumba
Middleton - Addison
Goligoski/Merrill
I think they are missing one - if not two defensemen for their run. Brodin and Spurgeon are great regular season defensemen but they get exposed in the playoffs.
Minnesota has had Brodin and Spurgeon in the top 3 since 2012 and Suter from 2012/13 to 2020/2021. The only that has changed is the fourth guy and that has gone from Gilbert to Folin to Scandella to Dumba to Goligoski to Middleton (looking at TOI not pairing). Dumba has been in the top 4 since 16/17.
I think at some point, you have to look at the defense and realize that Spurgeon is a solid 1B guy, Brodin is a solid 2A guy, but they are missing a 1A player.
Colorado had Makar and Toews and Byram
Tampa Bay had Hedman and Sergachev and McDonagh
St. Louis had Pietrangelo and Parayko and Bouwmeester
Washington had Carlson and Niskanen and Orlov
The weakest of the group is Pittsburgh a few years back when they had Doumlin and change, but they had a prime Crosby.
Minnesota has ??? and Spurgeon and Brodin.
I don't think they need a Makar, Hedman or Pietrangelo, but they need another guy at Spurgeon/Brodin level.
Not subjective; as Wabit pointed out how rare it is to grab 15 goals in a season for a defenseman. It is also correlates to how they perform in the postseason:
Spurgeon has 27 points in 61 games, 8 of which are goals. He hasn't scored a goal in the past two postseasons and notched 6 assists in 13 games with a whopping -7 in those games.
Last season they had 2 goals and 8 assists as an entire unit.
Two seasons ago they had 1 goal and 10 assists as an entire unit.
Three seasons ago they had 2 goals (both by Spurgeon) and 6 assists as an entire unit.
Huh? Addison has never been much of a goal scorer.
So what if Dumba is gone? He hasn't been an offensive d-man since his peck injury. Spurgeon isn't going anywhere, so there is one offensive d-man.
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
How does this compare against other teams' defensive scoring numbers in the respective 1st rounds?
What exactly is your point? That we need a #1 D ala Makar? Yeah, no kidding. So could 30 other teams.
I’m not worried about Spurgeon. I’m more concerned that Steel and Gaudreau are our top 6 centers. I think that has a larger impact on our playoffs than Spurgeon.
Some of the scouting reports mentions his shot and he did have an outstanding playoff series. He also put up 193 shots on net. I got to wonder how many of his shots turned into assists.
He still generates offense; he'll have 9 goals and 13 assists - still 9 goals is a lot for a defenseman, right?
Bruins had 2 goals and 7 assists
Canes had 4 goals and 21 assists
Canes beat the Bruins
Lightning had 3 goals and 11 assists
Leafs had 5 goals 10 assists
Lightning beat the Leafs
Blues had 2 goals and 13 assists
Minnesota had 2 goals and 8 assists
Blues beat the Wild
Oilers had 3 goals and 17 assists
Kings had 3 goals and 8 assists
Oilers beat the Kings
Rangers had 6 goals and 15 assists
Penguins had 3 goals and 11 assists
Rangers beat the Pens
Panthers had 1 goal and 11 assists
Capitals had 3 goals and 8 assists
Caps over Panthers
Avs had 6 goals and 22 assists
Preds had 1 goal and 7 assists
Flames had 2 goals and 7 assists
Stars had 1 goal and 10 assists
Preds - 8 points
Bruins - 9 points
Flames - 9 points
Wild - 10 points
Stars - 11 points
Capitals - 11 points
Kings - 11 points
Minnesota doesn't need a Makar, but they could use another Brodin/Spurgeon to push guys down a bit.
The thing is - Spurgeon and Brodin have 8 years of tape in the playoffs. Steel doesn't. For all we know, Steel could end up dominating the playoffs. But yeah, Minnesota has a few holes to plug. They are pretty much average to above average everywhere except wing.
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Of course he was an offensive forward. Yes, I downplayed him vs comparable assist level forwards, but I never completely disregarded him. Big difference.
The Wild were top 5 and top 10 in points from D-men the past 2 seasons. That puts them above avg "offensively". We all know they don't have an elite offensive d-man, but the performance they have gotten from the group they do have has been very good. Far from being even close to being able to say "ZERO offense for what... a decade?"
Love the attempt to isolate lack of scoring from defensemen when nearly our whole team struggles scoring in the postseason. And if that’s the point you’re making, to fix postseason scoring fist on the defensive side, then you really, truly, are missing the most glaring hole on this team.
Addison doesn't shoot enough to score a bunch of goals. He's a facilitator (similar to Suter, but faster in moving the puck) from the point for the PP.
15g with a 7.5%-10% s% (high for d-men) would require 150-200 shots on net in a season. Burns had some big goal totals but he was putting 300+ shots a year on net and attempting 700+ shots. Makar last year had 240 shots and attempted 494 (Fiala had 262 shots and 453 attempted shots last year for MN as a reference point).
I'm fine if the d-corps, as a whole, chips in ~40g in a season. It might need to get moved up a a little now that the overall scoring is up. If one guys scores 20g and the other 5 end up with 4g each it's the same as all 6 d-man each getting ~7g in a year.
Well Wallstedt isn't ready for the NHL. Goalie has been the biggest black hole for goal scoring.
Have you ever thought that the defense not having any offense could contribute to the offense being inept?
Interesting that all but the Flames had more offense than their opponent from defense when winning their series.
As a team really only Zuccarello and Fiala were disappointments. Boldy was a rookie and the rest chipped in here and there.
But mostly no one is saying to just fix the defense. I think most fans and reporters know Minnesota needs an extra top 6 forward. But they also could use another defenseman to round out their top 4.
This goes back to my trade ideas of bringing in Van Riemsdyk and Braun and then Schmaltz and Chychrun. That would give Minnesota depth and gives Minnesota that missing piece on defense.
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Have you ever thought that forwards who can score (especially in the playoffs) also contribute to more offense on the defensive side too
?!?Of course then you’ll gripe that the defensemen would only be scoring secondary assists, a stat you oh-so-conveniently left out in your playoff point analysis
.
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Have you ever thought that forwards who can score (especially in the playoffs) also contribute to more offense on the defensive side too
Of course then you’ll gripe that the defensemen would only be scoring secondary assists, a stat you oh-so-conveniently left out in your playoff point analysis
I mean they got rid of the biggest playoff flop in Fiala and no one wants to replace Zuccarello?
As for secondary assists I didn't ignore it but if Talon keeps bringing up points in the season and ignoring the fact Minnesota's blue line generates very little in terms of shots on goal than I am going to ignore it here.
Finally no one is disputing that Minnesota doesn't need at least a top 6 forward or two but they could absolutely upgrade their defense as well.
Edit: Holy hell has Zuccarello been bad for Minnesota in the playoffs. 1 goal and 7 assists in 17 games for Minnesota. I'd accept that if Zuccs was a third or fourth line guy but a top line forward.
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No, what you are refusing to do? You are refusing to admit you were wrong about the ZERO offense for a decade claim. You make the claim, got proven wrong, so you moved the goalposts. I'm not discussing this beyond your initial claim, because THAT was the point I was countering.
I'm not going to take part in discussing this after your goalpost move just so you can avoid admitting you were incorrect on your claim that started this discussion in the first place.
I haven't admitted or refused to admit I was wrong because I asked two important follow up questions:
1) How many assists are considered secondary assists? Defense usually start the breakout of the zone by moving the puck forward to the forward and they will get credit for that breakout even though it is the forwards generating that offense. If Minnesota ranks 5th in secondary assists because they move the puck out of the zone, while the forwards are the one attacking, they are doing what most NHL teams do and that is moving the puck out of their zone.
2) You still haven't addressed that Minnesota is in the middle of the pack for goals scored and one of the worst when generating shots on defense, which is essential to generating good offense from the defense. Either this is by design or the team just doesn't want to shoot the puck. It's been proven that getting shots on goal will generate more offense for the team.
Given that Minnesota has generated a lot of points but not a lot of goals and a hell of a lot less shots this means that a lot of their points are coming from assists. The question is what type of assists are these? Are they due to the team breaking out of their zone and letting their forwards do the work or are they working in the zone and generating offense through passing and mismatches?
One of the ways to determine is to determine how many shots the team is throwing on net. Partly because if the goaltender doesn't touch it and gives up a rebound the defenseman will be credited with the assist. Secondly it shows that the defensemen are generally in the zone attacking.
This isn't moving the goalposts. You brought evidence and I am questioning that evidence. That is what you do when someone brings up evidence is that you look at the data and then bring up follow up questions.
Finally I did admit that I forgot about Spurgeon's 18-19 season.
Edit: When I think of offensive defenseman I think of guys like Burns that attack the net and generate offensive chances through shots and mismatches. Your definition and my definition of offensive defenseman differ. I see Spurgeon as a guy that can do both; good defense, good offense and that's fine. But he's not the guy you put out on the power play to generate offensive chances.
I will admit that I was wrong based off your definition. But you have a habit of not admitting that you're wrong yourself Talon. I have seen it a lot of times or you dismiss it off hand. I have on occasion refused to admit that I am wrong, but lately I have been accepting when I am wrong when people provide evidence. For example I have admitted that my view on Koivu was skewed and I was wrong that he wasn't a good player. I understand why Minnesota fans like him however I can also keep my opinion of why I feel like he was a bit overrated.
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What is the biggest impact a defenseman can have on offense? Transition from defense to offense. The best offensive defensemen in the league get lauded for their great breakout passing ability. It springs the forwards into oddman rushes, most NHL goals are scored on the rush.
Thus, back to your original claim, this CANNOT be discounted, and thus the Wild defense provides far ABOVE ZERO offense and has for quite a long time.
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
From 2013 through 2022, the defenseman assist breakdown is as follows:
1,068 total assists
497 primary assists (47%)
571 secondary assists (53%)
I have no idea how this stacks up against other teams, as I don't feel like putting in that work; but it seems quite a bit more even than somebody here is expecting.
1,068 total assists
497 primary assists (47%)
571 secondary assists (53%)
I have no idea how this stacks up against other teams, as I don't feel like putting in that work; but it seems quite a bit more even than somebody here is expecting.
Reread my post. I've added more there.
Thanks Jan. This is the information I was looking for. And you're right it is a little more even than I expected. So it does seem like they are generating offense. And I was wrong.
Burns was an example of an "elite" offensive talent. Everyone here has already admitted we haven't had one of those. They're not easy to find. We've just been saying that inspite of that, the team has done well for themselves when it comes to offense from defensemen.
Do we want a Makar or Burns type of offensive talent? Of course we would! Our top priority still needs to be a legit top line center though.
We had an elite offensive talent on defense but prioritized Koivu over him. That's another debate for another day.
I am thinking we need more of a Dumba type. Or Dumba get healthy or whatever is messing with him. His shot is lethal.
We aren't going to get a top line center unless this team tanks (doubtful) or trade for one. Signing one isn't an option and trading for one is very very iffy with the cap space.
My thought is with the cap space limited, Minnesota can afford to get a decent top 9 center but a better defenseman than Middleton in the top 4 for cheaper.
I mean what legitimate centers are out there that Minnesota can afford? I see more defensemen then centers.
Just from last year d-men scoring:
6 d-men with 15g+ (elite) (or you could go with 3 d-men with 20+ goals)
32 d-men with 10g+ (1D) -Spurgeon (out for 17 games)
63 d-men with 7g+ (top-pair)- Dumba (out for 25 games), Kulikov
95 d-men with 5g+ (3D)-Brodin
121 d-men with 4g+ (top-4)-Merrill
compared to FWDs from last year:
6 with 47g+ (elite)
32 with 34g+ (1F)
93 with 24g+ (1st line)
134 with 20g+ (benchmark number)
194 with 15g+ (2nd line)
280 with 10g+(3rd line)
345 with 7g+ (4th line)
Goal scoring from the back end is nice, but the FWDs are the goal scorers.
Previous seasons:
18-19:
7 with 15g+ - Dumba (12g in 32 games, so I'm putting him here)
29 with 10g+ - Spurgeon
61 with 7g+ -Suter
116 with 4g+ -Brodin
19-20 season COVID shortened):
7 with 15g+
27 with 9g+-Spurgeon
62 with 6g+- Suter, Hunt, Soucy, Dumba
20-21 season (COVID leagues):
2 with 15g+ (6 with 10g+)
29 with 7g+ -Brodin (9g wtf?), Spurgeon
57 with 5g+ -Dumba
104 with 3g+ - Suter
MN doesn't have the 1 individual big number goal scorer in their d-corps, but they do score plenty of goals overall.
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