Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!

[Wabit]

He's still growing as a defenseman. He'll get there. There has been ZERO offense from the defense in the past...decade? Maybe more. Having someone like Addison is a huge boon for Minnesota.

MN was among the league leaders in d-man points for years. Suter + Spurgeon was good for ~80p a year. Dumba + Brodin was good for ~50p, the 3rd pair chipped in another ~30p.

Addison is on pace to be about equal to the to the offense Suter added to the team. Dumba is slightly off his 25-30p pace (basically the lack of PP time is the difference). Spurgeon is on his normal pace. Brodin is adding almost nothing. Goli+Merrill+Middleton is on pace for what the normal 3rd pair put up in past years.

 

[AKL]

Yea well he better grow fast because there are better options in the pipeline.

Should we wait until even one of those guys actually forces his way onto the team or should we just move Addison ASAP just in case one of them make the team in the next two years?

 

[Wabit]

Should we wait until even one of those guys actually forces his way onto the team or should we just move Addison ASAP just in case one of them make the team in the next two years?

I have no problems moving Addison but it's a cap thing, not a need to make room for prospects thing.

 

[AKL]

I have no problems moving Addison but it's a cap thing, not a need to make room for prospects thing.

But we don't even know what his cap will be. And if it is high, there are half a dozen guys on this roster you move first to make room for his contract. The 22 year old on pace for 40+ points isn't the first cap casualty.

 

[Arturia Pendragon]

He's still growing as a defenseman. He'll get there. There has been ZERO offense from the defense in the past...decade? Maybe more. Having someone like Addison is a huge boon for Minnesota.

The past decade?
Show me the stats of our total defensemen scoring versus the league please.

For your hot take of “ZERO” to be true I’m going to say being in the bottom third of the league in total defensemen scoring would suffice. Would you agree?

Go on, I’ll wait.

 

[Wabit]

But we don't even know what his cap will be. And if it is high, there are half a dozen guys on this roster you move first to make room for his contract. The 22 year old on pace for 40+ points isn't the first cap casualty.

Addison is my choice for a first cap causality of MNs controllable players (without getting weird with the NTCs). He's small, not physical, lost in the d-zone, and adds nothing positive outside of the PP. This just isn't a player I make the cap work for.

 

[TaLoN]

There has been ZERO offense from the defense in the past...decade?

If you call top 10 in the NHL ZERO offense from the defense maybe?

Which NHL Team Has The Most Points By Defensemen 2021 | StatMuse

The Vegas Golden Knights had the most points by a team in 2020-21, with 500 points.

www.statmuse.com

 

[AKL]

Addison is my choice for a first cap causality of MNs controllable players (without getting weird with the NTCs). He's small, not physical, lost in the d-zone, and adds nothing positive outside of the PP. This just isn't a player I make the cap work for.

Yeah I suppose we can always go back to Spurgeon running the PP?

It's extremely shortsighted to move a 22 year old rookie because he's not fully developed yet. It's a bad idea no matter how you try to justify it in your own head. It's just silly.

 

[Prior]

I need to see where the Wild will be come deadline to know where my comfort level will be in moving assets for additions.

I do think the limited amount of buyers in relation to the potential quality of options in play (not to mention the Wild’s good amount of cap space this season) puts themselves in a fair position to make the type of add when prices may not be as significant as they may be in other years.

They do need to take advantage of having a talent like Kaprizov one of these years before having nothing to show for it. The question also becomes, what do you target and who comes out if completely healthy. They could use significant quality upgrades at center and wing in top 6 roles for both. It would slot people down but then the question is, you are looking at taking the likes of Dewar, Shaw, and Duhaime out (to a lesser extent Reaves as well) who are very good in their roles. To the point of slotting down Gaudreau, Steel, and maybe Hartman who may not be.

Looking at names, Horvat and Larkin would be hell of an add but then you’re in a position of really wanting to extend them if you add them and I don’t see how that’s feasible. ROR would be a welcome addition if only for someone to be able to win a bleeping draw but he doesn’t skate near good enough to be a deep run solution. Given what the Wild are currently trotting out at center, I still don’t see how he’s not an upgrade regardless. There are several wings who would be huge adds to play with Boldy as well. I’d personally go after Kuzmenko and maybe find a solution to a re-sign.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think I read somewhere that you can tell everything you need to know about a defenseman in the first 54 games. Can’t remember where though.

 

[TaLoN]

If you call top 10 in the NHL ZERO offense from the defense maybe?

Which NHL Team Has The Most Points By Defensemen 2021 | StatMuse

The Vegas Golden Knights had the most points by a team in 2020-21, with 500 points.

www.statmuse.com

View attachment 631006

Maybe top 5 is more what you meant by ZERO offense instead?

Which NHL Team Has The Most Points By Defensemen 2022 | StatMuse

The Colorado Avalanche earned the most points by a team in 2021-22, with 760 points.

www.statmuse.com

 

[Prior]

In a normal cap setting, Addison is a nice player to have and his best assets are ones that the Wild do not have ready made replacements for.

In the Wild’s cap world, I do think he’s a bit of a luxury they may not be able to afford. Especially if they have any interest in find any type of center or secondary scoring solution. If they have no intention of adding there, then yes, get creative and find ways to make it work moving forward.

 

[Wabit]

Yeah I suppose we can always go back to Spurgeon running the PP?

It's extremely shortsighted to move a 22 year old rookie because he's not fully developed yet. It's a bad idea no matter how you try to justify it in your own head. It's just silly.

Spurgeon is being paid like he should run the PP, so yep.

Small d-men don't win teams Cups, they just win in the regular season.

 

[AKL]

Spurgeon is being paid like he should run the PP, so yep.

Small d-men don't win teams Cups, they just win in the regular season.

Addison is too small, your solution is to hand the keys back to Spurgeon

Wait til you find out Calen Addison and Cale Makar are the same size

 

[Prior]

Addison is too small, your solution is to hand the keys back to Spurgeon

Wait til you find out Calen Addison and Cale Makar are the same size

For what it’s worth, I have a hard time seeing a team win at a high level in the playoffs with the likes of defenders like Spurgeon, Brodin, and Addison all on the same blue line and playing the way they do. Especially when two of them are their supposed best defensemen. They’re locked into Spurgeon and Brodin, locking in a third making up half the defense is questionable in my view.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Maybe top 5 is more what you meant by ZERO offense instead?

Which NHL Team Has The Most Points By Defensemen 2022 | StatMuse

The Colorado Avalanche earned the most points by a team in 2021-22, with 760 points.

www.statmuse.com

View attachment 631026

Points? How many are those second assists?

Also, look at the shots generated by Minnesota. They are the third lowest in the league.

Goals, they sit just around average as well.

I forgot about Spurgeon's 18-19 season, but here are some other stats:

It's been a decade since any of Minnesota's defensemen have hit 15 or more goals in a season for a defenseman. (Burns was the last with 17 and that is actually the season record for Minnesota).

The two 'offensive' defensemen Minnesota, one is gone (Suter) and the other isn't doing anything on offense and is more than likely gone (Dumba)

Of the active players, Brodin sits 17th! in season records for goals scored at 9. Only Spurgeon and for now Dumba is ahead of him. That's ALL defensemen.

Kuba leads Minnesota with points in the post-season at 8 and he's tied with Spurgeon for most goals (3) in a series.

Could Spurgeon have Roman Josi like season where he scored 23 goals and 96 points? Absolutely. Will he? Eh...

Spurgeon is good in his own right, but that's like saying Mikko Koivu is as much of an offensive dynamo as Kirill Kaprizov.

Spurgeon has never been looked at as an offensive catalyst on the defense or an offensive defenseman. Maybe early in his career he was seen as someone, but he's morphed into a responsible two-way guy. I mean the same thing happened to Eriksson-Ek. He had some offense in him, but he morphed into a really responsible two-way guy.

No one is going to mistake Spurgeon for Burns or Karlsson. Or even a poor man's Burns or Karlsson.

 

[AKL]

For what it’s worth, I have a hard time seeing a team win at a high level in the playoffs with the likes of defenders like Spurgeon, Brodin, and Addison all on the same blue line and playing the way they do. Especially when two of them are their supposed best defensemen. They’re locked into Spurgeon and Brodin, locking in a third making up half the defense is questionable in my view.

There are a lot of things keeping this team from winning, especially between now and 2025. That doesn't mean you trade the rookie. Spurgeon's NMC falls off next summer (10 team no trade list) and Brodin's in the summer of 2025 (no protection). Trade them then if they're the problems. Or trade Addison at that time if he's not progressing after a bridge deal.

 

[TaLoN]

Points? How many are those second assists?

Also, look at the shots generated by Minnesota. They are the third lowest in the league.

Goals, they sit just around average as well.

I forgot about Spurgeon's 18-19 season, but here are some other stats:

It's been a decade since any of Minnesota's defensemen have hit 15 or more goals in a season for a defenseman. (Burns was the last with 17 and that is actually the season record for Minnesota).

The two 'offensive' defensemen Minnesota, one is gone (Suter) and the other isn't doing anything on offense and is more than likely gone (Dumba)

Of the active players, Brodin sits 17th! in season records for goals scored at 9. Only Spurgeon and for now Dumba is ahead of him. That's ALL defensemen.

Kuba leads Minnesota with points in the post-season at 8 and he's tied with Spurgeon for most goals (3) in a series.

Could Spurgeon have Roman Josi like season where he scored 23 goals and 96 points? Absolutely. Will he? Eh...

Spurgeon is good in his own right, but that's like saying Mikko Koivu is as much of an offensive dynamo as Kirill Kaprizov.

Spurgeon has never been looked at as an offensive catalyst on the defense or an offensive defenseman. Maybe early in his career he was seen as someone, but he's morphed into a responsible two-way guy. I mean the same thing happened to Eriksson-Ek. He had some offense in him, but he morphed into a really responsible two-way guy.

No one is going to mistake Spurgeon for Burns or Karlsson. Or even a poor man's Burns or Karlsson.

My point is, if you think MN has zero offense from their defense... when they were top 5 and top 10 in the NHL in the last two years, what does that say about the rest of the league? They're WELL above average.

You can only compare them vs their peers, and they compare very well despite note having an elite offensive talent on the blue line

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Goalposts flying all over the place.

Edit: thanks for liking this @thestonedkoala but I should probably admit that I was talking about you. First it's "provides no offense" then it became scoring 15 goals instead of 14 or talking about primary vs. secondary assists without consideration on whether we'd even be an outlier if we had more secondary vs. primary assists. You said it yourself, that we're average in goals. So somehow above average in points + average in goals = no offense? Doesn't really compute.

 

[thestonedkoala]

My point is, if you think MN has zero offense from their defense... when they were top 5 and top 10 in the NHL in the last two years, what does that say about the rest of the league? They're WELL above average.

You can only compare them vs their peers, and they compare very well despite note having an elite offensive talent on the blue line

Do you consider PM Bouchard an offensive forward? Because you mentioned Bouchard was the king of secondary assists and downplayed his offense.

Again that's points; they weren't top 5 or top 10 in goals or even shots. Hell with shots they are in the bottom 3. Which means a ton of points are coming from assists, which begs the question are they primary or secondary assists. Because there is a huge difference between a stretch pass to break out of the zone (routine) to establishing the zone and creating an offensive attack.

 

[Wabit]

Addison is too small, your solution is to hand the keys back to Spurgeon

Wait til you find out Calen Addison and Cale Makar are the same size

Huh imagine that one is an elite talent the other is Addison. Addison, at best, turns into another Barrie or Gostisbehere. I don't want either of those players either. If he was a bit bigger he would be another Morgan Rielly, who I don't want either.

I wanted Spurgeon gone long ago, but that's a different argument. The PP is 3% better than it was last year; which is nice; but that is what 8-10 goals in a season? Spurgeon is at least useful in the other 55 mins a game that isn't PP time.

I'll take a d-man that is good for 55 mins a game over the d-man that is good 5 mins of a game.

 

[AKL]

Addison, at best, turns into another Barrie or Gostisbehere.

What else does the future hold?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Huh imagine that one is an elite talent the other is Addison. Addison, at best, turns into another Barrie or Gostisbehere. I don't want either of those players either. If he was a bit bigger he would be another Morgan Rielly, who I don't want either.

I wanted Spurgeon gone long ago, but that's a different argument. The PP is 3% better than it was last year; which is nice; but that is what 8-10 goals in a season? Spurgeon is at least useful in the other 55 mins a game that isn't PP time.

I'll take a d-man that is good for 55 mins a game over the d-man that is good 5 mins of a game.

That d-man would be extremely tired for ~25 of those minutes. Definitely for 20 of them. You'd probably see diminishing returns rather quickly.

 

[Wabit]

Points? How many are those second assists?

Also, look at the shots generated by Minnesota. They are the third lowest in the league.

Goals, they sit just around average as well.

I forgot about Spurgeon's 18-19 season, but here are some other stats:

It's been a decade since any of Minnesota's defensemen have hit 15 or more goals in a season for a defenseman. (Burns was the last with 17 and that is actually the season record for Minnesota).

The two 'offensive' defensemen Minnesota, one is gone (Suter) and the other isn't doing anything on offense and is more than likely gone (Dumba)

Of the active players, Brodin sits 17th! in season records for goals scored at 9. Only Spurgeon and for now Dumba is ahead of him. That's ALL defensemen.

Kuba leads Minnesota with points in the post-season at 8 and he's tied with Spurgeon for most goals (3) in a series.

Could Spurgeon have Roman Josi like season where he scored 23 goals and 96 points? Absolutely. Will he? Eh...

Spurgeon is good in his own right, but that's like saying Mikko Koivu is as much of an offensive dynamo as Kirill Kaprizov.

Spurgeon has never been looked at as an offensive catalyst on the defense or an offensive defenseman. Maybe early in his career he was seen as someone, but he's morphed into a responsible two-way guy. I mean the same thing happened to Eriksson-Ek. He had some offense in him, but he morphed into a really responsible two-way guy.

No one is going to mistake Spurgeon for Burns or Karlsson. Or even a poor man's Burns or Karlsson.

There have been 63 total 15g seasons for d-men since the 12-13 season. That list is mostly just the same 10 names (Burns, Josi, EK, Webber, Letang, Carlson, OEL, Faulk, Big Buff, and Ekblad) with at least 3 each. 15g for a d-man is similar benchmark as 40 goals for a FWD (57 times in the same timespan).

That d-man would be extremely tired for ~25 of those minutes. Definitely for 20 of them. You'd probably see diminishing returns rather quickly.

Intermissions and the TV timeouts give them plenty of rest...

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I just don't see the rush to get rid of him. See what happens over the next 2.5 years and go from there. If he develops, great. If he doesn't, cut bait. If his extra $1.5M is the difference between finding a more important solution on the roster or not, then deal with it then. I don't think there's any meaningful "sell high" scenario going on either, so I don't think that anything is getting missed there. It just seems weirdly impatient to do otherwise.