Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!

[Spurgeon]

I think thats the topic for debate and a really interesting one.

This is what I have

Kirill Kaprizov ($9,000,000) - Sam Steel ($1,750,000) - Mats Zuccarello ($6,000,000)
Brandon Duhaime ($900,000) - Joel Eriksson Ek ($5,250,000) - Marcus Foligno ($3,100,000)
Matthew Boldy ($7,000,000) - Frédérick Gaudreau ($2,500,000) - Ryan Hartman ($1,700,000)
Mason Shaw ($900,000) - Connor Dewar ($800,000) - Samuel Walker ($855,000)
Marco Rossi ($863,333) [Move up or down]

Jacob Middleton ($2,450,000) - Jared Spurgeon ($7,575,000) -
Jonas Brodin ($6,000,000) - Calen Addison ($3,000,000)
Jon Merrill ($1,200,000) - Brock Faber ($950,000)

Marc-André Fleury ($3,500,000)
Filip Gustavsson ($2,750,000)

BUYOUTS (2)
Zach Parise ($7,371,794) - Ryan Suter ($7,371,794)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 21
Salary Cap: $83,500,000
Cap Hit: $82,786,921
Cap Space: $713,079

Because the cap space is so tight, you will need to decide between Gaudreau and Steel to give us more room for injuries and callups. Can't have both. But that will give us around 2mil cap room there.

It's not sexy but that dead cap is brutal.

Wild card to this equation is if we bring back NHL players from the Dumba/Greenway/Goligoski moves.

If we can move Goli, they should be able to make things work. Still concerning in this scenario that we can’t ice a full roster with 2 extra skaters even with moving Greenway & Goli.

I do think guys like Gaudreau and Steel are dime-a-dozen type players. They’re the Justin Fontaine’s of this roster. I think one area teams are really frivolous with their budgets are on these $2-3M players.

Gaudreau and Steel would likely be signed to UFA deals around those amounts, but is their marginal improvement over ELC guys worth $2.5M? I think there’s an abundance of AHL players and ELC rookies that could be perfectly fine in bottom 6 roles. We see it this year with Dewar, Shaw, and Duhaime. The same thing with Sturm the previous years.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Trade a PPG+ player who has unreal chemistry with our best player for scraps. Excellent idea. /s

Domi would also need a new contract next season.

I said sign Domi:

But let's break down the goalposts you put up:

Trade a PPG player who has unreal chemistry with our best player for scraps:

1/ We just traded a PPG for 'scraps' who had unreal chemistry with one of our best players.
2/ It doesn't address the fact that Zuccarello will be 37 (!) when his new contract takes place AND this team won't be able to add onto the team for the next two years, so that means Zuccarello will be 39! by the time this team is ready to compete.
3/ As mentioned PPG, do you think Zuccarello is going to play for league minimum? For under 4 million a year? Especially since as you mentioned, he's putting up a PPG?

 

[Webster]

Yeah Zuccarello will be interesting next year, his market value is almost $10 million.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Yeah Zuccarello will be interesting next year, his market value is almost $10 million.

According to what!?

 

[TaLoN]

Yeah Zuccarello will be interesting next year, his market value is almost $10 million.

In what world?!!?!?

 

[MuckOG]

I said sign Domi:

But let's break down the goalposts you put up:

Trade a PPG player who has unreal chemistry with our best player for scraps:

1/ We just traded a PPG for 'scraps' who had unreal chemistry with one of our best players.
2/ It doesn't address the fact that Zuccarello will be 37 (!) when his new contract takes place AND this team won't be able to add onto the team for the next two years, so that means Zuccarello will be 39! by the time this team is ready to compete.
3/ As mentioned PPG, do you think Zuccarello is going to play for league minimum? For under 4 million a year? Especially since as you mentioned, he's putting up a PPG?

1/ So you compound that error by moving out another?!?!

2/ Yes, he is getting up there. But if you look at his total games played (729), he still has some tread left on his tires. He has fewer games played than Josi, Spurgeon, Seguin, and Kadri among others. I'm not saying that he should be signed to a long term deal, but I have a feeling that he would be quite reasonable in any negotiation. Or maybe not. But I don't think he should be moved any earlier than next season at TDL if it should come to that.

3) I have no idea what he would be willing to re-sign for. But like I said, lets cross that bridge when we get to it. Right now, he is too important of a piece to move just to clear cap space.

 

[Webster]

According to what!?

NHL player card.

You got a problem with that? Look at his production and experience.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

According to what!?

A chart somewhere I'm sure.

 

[TaLoN]

NHL player card.

You got a problem with that? Look at his production and experience.

Look at his age, he'd not getting even remotely close to $10m.

 

[Minnewildsota]

NHL player card.

You got a problem with that? Look at his production and experience.

Link it.

 

[TaLoN]

If Zucc's market value is $10m, then Boldy's is $15m and Kap's is $25m

 

[thestonedkoala]

1/ So you compound that error by moving out another?!?!

2/ Yes, he is getting up there. But if you look at his total games played (729), he still has some tread left on his tires. He has fewer games played than Josi, Spurgeon, Seguin, and Kadri among others. I'm not saying that he should be signed to a long term deal, but I have a feeling that he would be quite reasonable in any negotiation. Or maybe not. But I don't think he should be moved any earlier than next season at TDL if it should come to that.

3) I have no idea what he would be willing to re-sign for. But like I said, lets cross that bridge when we get to it. Right now, he is too important of a piece to move just to clear cap space.

1/ Minnesota has a lot of good middle-six wingers that are going to be coming through sooner than later. Boldy needs more time and with better and more skilled players. Boldy replaces Zuccarello on the first line and his salary (with a slight bump in pay). A guy like Walker takes over where Boldy is and for cheaper.

2/ The argument about moving him at the TDL is that if this team is competing there isn't going to be an option to move Zuccarello. Better to go into the season knowing what you have then creating an issue during the season. As some have mentioned here with Dumba, if the value for Zuccs is (2) 2nd round picks, his value is higher to get Minnesota into the playoffs. Teams generally try to make their big moves in the offseason and it gives them time to think about re-signing Zuccarello.

3/ We're not moving him now, we're moving him in the off-season when this team can make moves to replace him.

4/ Also why the hell shouldn't this team trade Zuccarello when his value is at his highest?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

1/ So you compound that error by moving out another?!?!

2/ Yes, he is getting up there. But if you look at his total games played (729), he still has some tread left on his tires. He has fewer games played than Josi, Spurgeon, Seguin, and Kadri among others. I'm not saying that he should be signed to a long term deal, but I have a feeling that he would be quite reasonable in any negotiation. Or maybe not. But I don't think he should be moved any earlier than next season at TDL if it should come to that.

3) I have no idea what he would be willing to re-sign for. But like I said, lets cross that bridge when we get to it. Right now, he is too important of a piece to move just to clear cap space.

Pavelski just got 1 x $5.5M for what would be his 39 year old season.

Zucc's first season on a new contract will be a 37 year old season. So probably something like 2-3 years x $5-$6M, although I'd probably try to squeeze that down to $5.5M at the most.

 

[Webster]

If Zucc's market value is $10m, then Boldy's is $15m and Kap's is $25m

Boldy is $7m, so his contract was spot on.

You need to pay The Athletic to get the player card info.

 

[AKL]

If Zucc's market value is $10m, then Boldy's is $15m and Kap's is $25m

It's literally just a chart saying how much their production is worth. It doesn't take into account any context like age, linemates, etc. It just says, "he put up X points, that is worth Y dollars". It's not a prediction of what they should or will get.

 

[Circulartheory]

If we can move Goli, they should be able to make things work. Still concerning in this scenario that we can’t ice a full roster with 2 extra skaters even with moving Greenway & Goli.

I do think guys like Gaudreau and Steel are dime-a-dozen type players. They’re the Justin Fontaine’s of this roster. I think one area teams are really frivolous with their budgets are on these $2-3M players.

Gaudreau and Steel would likely be signed to UFA deals around those amounts, but is their marginal improvement over ELC guys worth $2.5M? I think there’s an abundance of AHL players and ELC rookies that could be perfectly fine in bottom 6 roles. We see it this year with Dewar, Shaw, and Duhaime. The same thing with Sturm the previous years.

I think signing just ONE of Gaudreau or Steel would open up that 2mil space to have an extra skater on the roster.

While I agree with the mindset that they are nothing special - I'm not sure I agree to the extent that just any ELC/AHL player is going to produce as well as they have in their positions. Before we got to Steel on the top line, we tried Jost on that top line and it didn't work - we tried Rossi in Gaudreau's center spot and he wasn't ready. But I wouldn't spend more than 2.5mil on them.

I think another wildcard is our existing guys in Iowa - Rossi, Walker, Beckman. The latter two sound like they are progressing well and perhaps Rossi's demotion sparked his offensive creativity.

That why I think my suggestion is to sign just one of Gaudreau or Steel - just one to add the safety net. Then we can play around with Rossi moving up the lineup again, maybe Walker would fit nicely with Boldy. It's interesting.

 

[MuckOG]

4/ Also why the hell shouldn't this team trade Zuccarello when his value is at his highest?

So, using that logic, should we trade Kaprizov?

 

[Minnewildsota]

Boldy is $7m, so his contract was spot on.

You need to pay The Athletic to get the player card info.

I have the Athletic. Link it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So, using that logic, should we trade Kaprizov?

Using that logic, we should've last summer.

 

[thestonedkoala]

So, using that logic, should we trade Kaprizov?

Kaprizov isn't a 36/37 year old player.

 

[MuckOG]

Kaprizov isn't a 36/37 year old player.

Was it a mistake for Dallas to re-sign Pavelski?

If we can sign Zuccarello to a 1-2 year deal around $4- $5 million aav, i would be all over that. Preferably, a 1 year deal.

 

[AKL]

If Zucc's market value is $10m, then Boldy's is $15m and Kap's is $25m

I have the Athletic. Link it.

See if this works

I don't know if there's an updated one for this year. Obiously most rational people will understand it's not designed to be taken as seriously as Webster takes it.

 

[TaLoN]

Boldy is $7m, so his contract was spot on.

You need to pay The Athletic to get the player card info.

You can clip even from the Athletic...

This does not mean that is what he would get as a UFA... not even close. There are a TON of factors that go into what he would actually get and it's not even close to $10m.

 

[TaLoN]

Quick, digestible data on players from all 32 NHL teams

Welcome to our NHL Player Cards page, where you will find quick, at-a-glance summaries of relevant player stats in a digestible manner.

theathletic.com

For those familiar with the previous version of my player cards, you’ll notice there are some obvious changes — namely, the lack of an age curve. That chart type isn’t going away, I just felt it wasn’t something that was necessarily appropriate year-round. It fits more when players sign new contracts, but not so much on a random Tuesday in January when you just want to know how good the player is right now. That needed to be the focus, especially if the design was to be influenced by real-life hockey cards. I also omitted penalty differential and usage from the visualization. Not that those two things don’t matter, it’s just that some sacrifices needed to be made for the sake of simplicity and to bring new concepts into the fold.

So, he literally says, this isn't related to what the player will get contract-wise in his breakdown of his model. There you go. Even he says the "market value" is completely unrelated to what a player will actually get paid!

 

[thestonedkoala]

Was it a mistake for Dallas to re-sign Pavelski?

If we can sign Zuccarello to a 1-2 year deal around $4- $5 million aav, i would be all over that. Preferably, a 1 year deal.

For every Pavelski, you have a Jeff Carter, Zach Parise, Joe Thornton.

That 4-5 million is still a lot of money for a capped out team.