Toronto has scored 11PPGs since Marner injury

[Dekes For Days]

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Yeah, looking exclusively at PP goals over some arbitrary period for a playmaker not put in a goal-scoring role on the PP, and ignoring everything else they bring, is pretty facepalm worthy.

 

[LeafSteel]

Yeah, looking exclusively at PP goals over some arbitrary period for a playmaker not put in a goal-scoring role on the PP, and ignoring everything else they bring, is pretty facepalm worthy.

Sorry, but I find your posting pretty one-dimensional, and lack balance.

The metrics you live by are interesting and represent a lot of effort on your part, but your inability or unwillingness to pair metrics with the eye test and what actually happens in game weakens your posts.

We will agree to disagree.

Happy Christmas Eve everyone!

 

[Dekes For Days]

The metrics you live by are interesting and represent a lot of effort on your part, but your inability or unwillingness to pair metrics with the eye test and what actually happens in game weakens your posts.

I have watched every game and do pair my metrics with the eye test. I just don't evaluate a player's PP proficiency and impact exclusively by how many PP goals they personally score.

 

[Jmo89]

You said this yesterday. Was not sure what you meant so I did not bother responding but today I can say this is not true. I had to go back 3 years to find that 16 has 6 PP goals, one more than Spezza who barely has PP time and plays PP2 mostly. Most of the others had double Marner's 6. Hell if you go back one year Ritchie and Bunting have 4 each. Perhaps you can show the data that backs your statement ??

The only thing more potent than his PP goalscoring is his playoff scoring.

 

[Gallagbi]

Yeah, looking exclusively at PP goals over some arbitrary period for a playmaker not put in a goal-scoring role on the PP, and ignoring everything else they bring, is pretty facepalm worthy.

I wouldn't say the bolded is accurate. We've heard about his improved shooting over the summer to become a threat on the PP for a few years now and he's essentially in the same spot as Nylander (currently) and Spezza (PP2).

He hasn't been an effective shooter recently, but he's in a spot and even a role where many other shooters play.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I wouldn't say the bolded is accurate. We've heard about his improved shooting over the summer to become a threat on the PP for a few years now and he's essentially in the same spot as Nylander (currently) and Spezza (PP2).

We've heard about how he's worked on his shooting, but that wasn't to suddenly become a PP goal scorer... And Marner actually scored PP goals at a pretty average rate through his first 4 years - it's only dropped off recently. He is the set-up guy on the PP, who initiates the play, and that has only gotten more pronounced as more and more elite shooters are added to his unit. He shoots less than all of them, and he tends to set up further back than Nylander or Spezza to draw out lanes. He's very rarely the one being set up for good opportunities, for good reason when Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander are also on your unit.

Nobody is pretending that Marner is some elite PP goal scorer that just doesn't get a chance, but he's also not physically incapable of scoring like some people act, and it's gotten to the point where people are blaming every last thing they don't like about the PP at any point in time on Marner, and just blatantly ignoring the value that Marner brings to a PP outside of goal-scoring. I'm not sure where people got this idea that you need 5 snipers to have a good PP, but that has literally never been true.

 

[Gallagbi]

We've heard about how he's worked on his shooting, but that wasn't to suddenly become a PP goal scorer... And Marner actually scored PP goals at a pretty average rate through his first 4 years - it's only dropped off recently. He is the set-up guy on the PP, who initiates the play, and that has only gotten more pronounced as more and more elite shooters are added to his unit. He shoots less than all of them, and he tends to set up further back than Nylander or Spezza to draw out lanes. He's very rarely the one being set up for good opportunities, for good reason when Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander are also on your unit.

Nobody is pretending that Marner is some elite PP goal scorer that just doesn't get a chance, but he's also not physically incapable of scoring like some people act, and it's gotten to the point where people are blaming every last thing they don't like about the PP at any point in time on Marner, and just blatantly ignoring the value that Marner brings to a PP outside of goal-scoring. I'm not sure where people got this idea that you need 5 snipers to have a good PP, but that has literally never been true.

Are you under the impression people want Marner to score like Matthews on the PP or just return to his regular (or even more normal) rates of a few PPGs a year? Plenty of good passers play on potent powerplays with great shooters, not many go the length he has without a PPG.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Last time Marner was on PP2, it became PP1. His unit outperformed Nylander and Matthews.

Nylander has a much better shot now

 

[LeafSteel]

Nylander has a much better shot now

Lol. Now you’ve done it……….

 

[123offtheglass]

I’d say if the pp is still hot you keep them together and give him the pp2

once they inevitably falter he slots back in for Kase

Agreed. Marner would actually be a huge help for PP2 too, I think he'd be much more effective on that unit.

Once PP1 goes cold or Marner heats up, they should put him at bumper on PP1 & actually have some patience with him there.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Last time Marner was on PP2, it became PP1. His unit outperformed Nylander and Matthews.

Wasn't that Just PP1?

Gardiner, Bozak, Kadri, JVR, Marner

Rielly, 88, Matthews...and I forget the rest...Hyman?

 

[Notsince67]

Wasn't that Just PP1?

Gardiner, Bozak, Kadri, JVR, Marner

Rielly, 88, Matthews...and I forget the rest...Hyman?

lol.
Most teams dont build a pp1 without their first line. It didnt start that way.

 

[Racer88]

Are you under the impression people want Marner to score like Matthews on the PP or just return to his regular (or even more normal) rates of a few PPGs a year? Plenty of good passers play on potent powerplays with great shooters, not many go the length he has without a PPG.

Yes. This is what I want. I don’t ever expect him to score like Matthews but when out 1 million dollar depth player score more then him on the PP it’s a problem.
Merry Christmas to you and your family.

 

[zeke]

Wasn't that Just PP1?

Gardiner, Bozak, Kadri, JVR, Marner

Rielly, 88, Matthews...and I forget the rest...Hyman?

Not Hyman. Marleau and Komarov/Brown.

 

[zeke]

NaturalStatTrick, past 3 years up to the point that Marner was injured.

Wait you actually removed the part of the sample that he was off the unit? Why would you cherry pick like that?

Again, I'm not dismissing them. I'm just also not overemphasizing and exaggerating a couple cherry picked things while ignoring everything else, including all underlying data.

I think you just dismissed them again.

There is if you're going to make claims about those 5 man units that aren't true.

But Marner doesn't dominate the puck. Maybe there's a better way to utilize or place that combination of players, maybe there isn't, but playmakers should always be touching the puck more than goal-scorers as a function of their role, and there's nothing to suggest that removing Marner entirely is beneficial. We want somebody like Matthews getting lost by the opposition and open behind the play; we don't want everybody staring at him and covering him because he has the puck all the time.

I mean, he does dominate the puck though.

And while we don't have a huge sample of the PP without Mitch, we do now have two samples when he was injured - 11gms in nov/Dec 2019, and these last 6 games this December. Here's how the PP has done in those two stints:

1. 11gms, 8.90 gf/60 (#7), 9.41 xgf/60 (#1)
2. 6gms, 26.02 gf/60 (#1), 10.31 xgf/60 (#3)

So they haven't exactly been crippled without him, unfortunately. And given that's our entire sample with Mitch missing I'd say that's more than "nothing".

I have a lot more doubt about a player who has secondary production as a significant portion of their ES production than I do about a player who has secondary production as a bigger part of their PP production, because as I discussed, the distribution of production type is highly reliant on role on the PP.

I'm surprised to hear you say that tbh. Picking up secondary assists on a stacked PP is much less talent based than at even strength.

[QuoteA]For like the 5th time, I have no problem with mixing up our PP dynamics and trying different stuff (which we have); I've merely pushed back on this ridiculous idea that Marner is dragging down our PP and should be taken off the top unit.[/quote]

I agree that ideally Mitch is on the top unit, but imo in a different role. It's unfortunate imo that we needed to have him forcibly taken off the top unit for us to see what imo may very well be a better usage of some other elite talent players we have.

I suggest you go and re-watch the PP goals we've scored since Marner's injury, because it's not.

Pretty sure it is.

 

[Havoc]

Agreed. Marner would actually be a huge help for PP2 too, I think he'd be much more effective on that unit.

Once PP1 goes cold or Marner heats up, they should put him at bumper on PP1 & actually have some patience with him there.

This.

It's not so much Marner sucks on the PP, he just doesn't work with the other guys on PP1 i.e he's conditionally sucking.

PP2 has the elements he needs to succeed. Screens, tips etc. Marner can orchestrate like he did for Kadri and JVR. PP1 is way too stacked for it to run through just 1 guy. Without Marner, everyone is taking turns being the QB and it keeps the defence guessing. That chemistry doesn't exist when Marner is on it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are you under the impression people want Marner to score like Matthews on the PP or just return to his regular (or even more normal) rates of a few PPGs a year?

I think what many people want is to blame Marner for everything, because they already disliked him for other reasons. If people want "a few PPGs a year", that's fine, and it's probably what he'll average moving forward, but the fact that he's in a cold streak in that regard right now does not excuse ignoring everything he brings on the PP outside of goal-scoring.

not many go the length he has without a PPG.

While it is rare, this type of thing is not as unheard of as people make it seem. Forwards who had 0 or 1 PP goals in a season in which they played over 2 minutes per game on the PP and got between 11-35 total PP points include the likes of Stone, Voracek, Getzlaf, Huberdeau, Krejci, Staal, Bergeron, Tanguay, H. Sedin, D. Sedin, Zetterberg, Thornton, T. Fleury, Kopitar, etc.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

This.

It's not so much Marner sucks on the PP, he just doesn't work with the other guys on PP1 i.e he's conditionally sucking.

PP2 has the elements he needs to succeed. Screens, tips etc. Marner can orchestrate like he did for Kadri and JVR. PP1 is way too stacked for it to run through just 1 guy. Without Marner, everyone is taking turns being the QB and it keeps the defence guessing. That chemistry doesn't exist when Marner is on it.

Marners plays don't work without prime JVR + Kadri and Bozak. Massively frustrating watching them try to force it still. JVR was top 5 in the league from in-close during his peak years here, not even Matthews could touch him from that range. Marner plays the PP as if he still has the same unit and refuses to adapt. It's pretty obvious by now how significant a factor JVR Bozak and Kadri were for Marners PP success. It wasn't the case that Marner carried everyone. It was a well oiled and deadly unit.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Wait you actually removed the part of the sample that he was off the unit?

In that one, in order to prove something about the cherry picking you were already doing. Clearly, despite your attempts to claim otherwise, this is very much about overemphasizing the couple week hot streak.

I mean, he does dominate the puck though.

I mean, he doesn't "dominate" the puck though. He, as a playmaker, does get more touches than our goal-scorers, but that's what you want.

1. 11gms, 8.90 gf/60 (#7), 9.41 xgf/60 (#1)

I'm not sure where you got these numbers, but they're wrong. For the record, it was our 2nd unit that got hot during this stretch - when Nylander was moved off of it coincidently - not our 1st unit. Are we going to draw wild conclusions from that too?

Picking up secondary assists on a stacked PP is much less talent based than at even strength.

The distribution of production type is much more reliant on role on the PP. We're also talking about inherently more variable production stats.

Pretty sure it is.

All this confirms is that you didn't actually go back and watch the goals, because it's not.

 

[zeke]

In that one, in order to prove something about the cherry picking you were already doing. Clearly, despite your attempts to claim otherwise, this is very much about overemphasizing the couple week hot streak.

You're starting to lose it here, my friend. At no point have I cherry picked anything.

Yet you literally just removed all the numbers since Mitch went out. The exact sample we have without him on the top unit. That is the definition of cherry picking.

I mean, he doesn't "dominate" the puck though. He, as a playmaker, does get more touches than our goal-scorers, but that's what you want.

Getting the most touches is dominating the puck. I don't know what difference you're trying to argue.

And the entire argument here is whether Mitch should be getting the most touches on the PP, and so many more than a guy like Willy. I don't think he should.

I'm not sure where you got these numbers, but they're wrong. For the record, it was our 2nd unit that got hot during this stretch - when Nylander was moved off of it coincidently - not our 1st unit. Are we going to draw wild conclusions from that too?

The numbers are correct. Both times Mitch has been out to injury the PP has been excellent.

And it was both units that produced:

The distribution of production type is much more reliant on role on the PP. We're also talking about inherently more variable production stats.

Yes, the MOST variable production stats there are - secondary PP pts.

All this confirms is that you didn't actually go back and watch the goals, because it's not.

OK the bang in goals at the crease with the goalie flailing didn't happen.

 

[Dekes For Days]

At no point have I cherry picked anything.

It's literally what your entire argument is built upon...

Yet you literally just removed all the numbers since Mitch went out.

In one of the many rankings I posted, yes, to show how production has been distributed for the majority of the chosen sample, and disprove your claim that this wasn't all about overemphasizing the hot streak of the past couple weeks that Marner hasn't been able to benefit from like everybody else. It clearly is.

Getting the most touches is dominating the puck.

No it's not. It's not as exaggerated as you're making it out to be, and you literally want your playmakers touching the puck more than your goal-scorers as a function of their role and player type. I'm not sure how you could argue otherwise.

The numbers are correct.

They are not, and it was mainly our 2nd unit excelling. Matthews-Nylander-Tavares together produced at a rate of 6.92 GF/60 during that stretch without Marner. Our 2nd unit with none of our stars produced at 11.11 GF/60 during that stretch. Should we draw wild conclusions from this too?

Yes, the MOST variable production stats there are - secondary PP pts.

PP stats in general are inherently much more variable. And as mentioned, it's a game state where role also plays a big part in production type distribution. So no, a stretch like this doesn't make me overly concerned.

OK the bang in goals at the crease with the goalie flailing didn't happen.

It happened - for about 1 of the 11 goals.

 

[Gallagbi]

While it is rare, this type of thing is not as unheard of as people make it seem. Forwards who had 0 or 1 PP goals in a season in which they played over 2 minutes per game on the PP and got between 11-35 total PP points include the likes of Stone, Voracek, Getzlaf, Huberdeau, Krejci, Staal, Bergeron, Tanguay, H. Sedin, D. Sedin, Zetterberg, Thornton, T. Fleury, Kopitar, etc.

Doesn't the fact were including Theo Fleury and pre salary cap Daniel Sedin to validate/excuse the 0 PPG, show exactly how rare it is? Also looks, after a quick glance, that a lot of these guys were 1 PPG in a year, then bounced back while we know Marner is around 100+ Games without a PPG. Likely more if you include playoffs. Then there's another huge chunk that we simply need to consider Marner a level above. I mean Thorntons 0 PPG season was at a 50 point pace scoring 7 goals on the year.

 

[zeke]

It's literally what your entire argument is built upon...

I'm sorry but you just can't do this. The numbers I have used have been complete full sample numbers.

In one of the many rankings I posted, yes, to show how production has been distributed for the majority of the chosen sample, and disprove your claim that this wasn't all about overemphasizing the hot streak of the past couple weeks that Marner hasn't been able to benefit from like everybody else. It clearly is.

But come on this is an absolute classic example of cherry picking data to confirm your own argument. You can't just throw away data that goes against your argument by calling it a fluke. Marner has benefitted from many similar hot streaks during the samples where he played. As well, from the previous time he missed significant games we can see that despite the xgf being high the gf were low - I.e. a cold streak. Again, I don't throw away that data either.

No it's not. It's not as exaggerated as you're making it out to be, and you literally want your playmakers touching the puck more than your goal-scorers as a function of their role and player type. I'm not sure how you could argue otherwise.

OK let me try a different tactic.

I assume you agree with me that a PP featuring Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly plus literally pretty much any other player in hockey should still be a dominant PP, no?

Assuming you agree - then why would we want to give the MOST touches on the PP to a guy who hasn't scored a PP goal in 109gms and has the lowest primary point production on the unit by a good margin? Why would that guy be the one getting the most puck?

They are not, and it was mainly our 2nd unit excelling. Matthews-Nylander-Tavares together produced at a rate of 6.92 GF/60 during that stretch without Marner. Our 2nd unit with none of our stars produced at 11.11 GF/60 during that stretch. Should we draw wild conclusions from this too?

OK forget hot and cold streaks. They've produced at elite xgf/60 rates both times he has missed significant games. It's far from a conclusive sample but a) it's not a shock to some of us and b) shows we have some room to experiment here.

Look i get it that a bunch of posters here are letting anti-Marner hate cloud their judgement and pretending he's hurting the team out there and it's dumb and annoying. I agree with you that their arguments are dumb and annoying.

But I still think there us a very real argument here that Mitch has too big a role on the PP given the other elite options on the unit, all of whom are legit snipers and a threat to score from anywhere the moment they get a bit of space. And I think there's a chance Mitch could benefit greatly from lowering his touches, getting in closer to the net, and benefitting from the room created by the others handling the puck a bit more.

 

[WTFMAN99]

lol.
Most teams dont build a pp1 without their first line. It didnt start that way.

Not Hyman. Marleau and Komarov/Brown.

I think that it was just a successful unit because they just worked off one another and didn't force anything. Babcock just made them the de facto #1 unit based upon the results they got I guess.

I find Marner would really look for Matthews almost too much. Rielly said he's taking more shots this year...and Matthews/Nylander at circle with JT net front is something you need to respect. Spezza also has a bullet slap shot too when he was moved up briefly in Marner's absence.

 

[Mess]

I think the Leafs should do what is best for the team and the crest on the front, not place any one player simply based on the name on the back in front of the teams best interests.

Hockey is a results oriented business and what produces the best results should rule the roost.