Toronto has scored 11PPGs since Marner injury

[Dekes For Days]

That is all fine and dandy but unless I am forgetting, wasn't our PP terrible last year and most of this year until Mitch was injured ??

No, the PP was on absolute fire at the beginning of last year, and was rolling for most of this year before Marner's injury. Outside of half a shortened season last year, where Matthews was injured, and mixed with some bad puck luck, they lost all their confidence, and the whole unit and everybody on it stagnated and stopped moving around, every PP unit that featured Marner has been consistently elite since he stepped foot in the league.

 

[ToneDog]

No, the PP was on absolute fire at the beginning of last year, and was rolling for most of this year before Marner's injury. Outside of half a shortened season last year, where Matthews was injured, and mixed with some bad puck luck, they lost all their confidence, and the whole unit and everybody on it stagnated and stopped moving around, every PP unit that featured Marner has been consistently elite since he stepped foot in the league.

Yeah I recall PP was great in the early part of last season and then was nowhere to be found when it counted. Call it what you will but it sucked. As for Marner, his last PP goal was Feb. 1, 2020 vs Sens. 1.5 months prior to first COVID lockdown. I would hardly call that elite.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yeah I recall PP was great in the early part of last season and then was nowhere to be found when it counted.

We scored 3 PP goals in the Montreal series, for the record, and our scoring overall was lower because of Price.

As for Marner, his last PP goal was Feb. 1, 2020 vs Sens. 1.5 months prior to first COVID lockdown. I would hardly call that elite.

What we call that is cherry picking and intentionally ignoring the majority of what Marner brings to a PP.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yeah I recall PP was great in the early part of last season and then was nowhere to be found when it counted. Call it what you will but it sucked. As for Marner, his last PP goal was Feb. 1, 2020 vs Sens. 1.5 months prior to first COVID lockdown. I would hardly call that elite.

Over 100 games without a PP goal. On the first unit. Must be some kind of record

 

[ToneDog]

We scored 3 PP goals in the Montreal series, for the record, and our scoring overall was lower because of Price.

What we call that is cherry picking and intentionally ignoring the majority of what Marner brings to a PP.

Cherry picking ?? The fact is the guy can't score on the PP (playoffs and regular season). How big of a sample size do you need ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Cherry picking ?? The fact is the guy can't score on the PP

The fact is that his primary role is not to score on the PP. It's to put other people in great positions to score - which he has done very well.

Since Marner entered the league, Marner is a top-10 PP point producer among forwards, and the 4th best PP primary assist producer. PP goal-scoring comparables include the likes of Kane, Larkin, Couturier, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Kopitar, Gaudreau, Spezza, Giroux, Toews, Svechnikov, Wheeler.

 

[ToneDog]

Over 100 games without a PP goal. On the first unit. Must be some kind of record

He has 39 days to get one or it will be two full calendar years. Yikes.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

The fact is that his primary role is not to score on the PP. It's to put other people in great positions to score - which he has done very well.

Since Marner entered the league, Marner is a top-10 PP point producer among forwards, and the 4th best PP primary assist producer. PP goal-scoring comparables include the likes of Kane, Larkin, Couturier, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Kopitar, Gaudreau, Spezza, Giroux, Toews, Svechnikov, Wheeler.

You keep referencing "since Marner came into the league". Well to the best of my memory, when Mitch was younger and less figured out, his PP unit with Bozak JVR and Kadri was incredibly potent and ran like clockwork. But in the era of our stacked PP unit, he's gotten predictable, teams frequently just give him space and are happy to let him shoot because he poses no threat, which makes it a lot harder for a guy like Matthews to get wide open. To me it's not a surprise that our PP exploded in his absence - when Kase gets the puck, he's taking it right to the net instead of meandering passing it back and forth to Rielly forever. If you only look at his PP production over the last 2 seasons, how does it compare to his first 2? And if it's worse, isn't that cause for concern considering the players he's playing with are better? How many of those other names you mentioned get to play with 3 forwards as good as Matthews Nylander and Tavares? Quite frankly, I don't see any reason we shouldn't have a top 3 PP every year, only Colorado can really match our offensive firepower imo. I and many others have thought that Mitch is overrated on our powerplay despite his even strength brilliance, and a lot of us are not at all surprised to see it start to pop off in his absence. Also I appreciate the expected goals numbers posted for him, but on the powerplay I take execution over volume every time.
I watch hockey pretty obsessively, and the looks that our top PP has generated for most the past 2 years are not as rosy as the expected goals numbers make them look. There were about 5 games this year where our PP actually looked incredible with Mitch when all 5 players were moving around more and getting him more involved below the goal line, but this hasn't been the case for most of the previous 2 years.

 

[ACC1224]

Put me on the side that couldn't care less if he ever scores on the PP as long as it's successful.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Put me on the side that couldn't care less if he ever scores on the PP as long as it's successful.

Sure if it's running well don't mess with it. But having another shooter on that PP I think helps everyone - especially AM

 

[Racer88]

Yeah I recall PP was great in the early part of last season and then was nowhere to be found when it counted. Call it what you will but it sucked. As for Marner, his last PP goal was Feb. 1, 2020 vs Sens. 1.5 months prior to first COVID lockdown. I would hardly call that elite.

Lol. So true

 

[Racer88]

Put me on the side that couldn't care less if he ever scores on the PP as long as it's successful.

Why not have a PP with players that can score as well as pass……kinda like they have right now?

 

[Racer88]

The fact is that his primary role is not to score on the PP. It's to put other people in great positions to score - which he has done very well.

Since Marner entered the league, Marner is a top-10 PP point producer among forwards, and the 4th best PP primary assist producer. PP goal-scoring comparables include the likes of Kane, Larkin, Couturier, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Kopitar, Gaudreau, Spezza, Giroux, Toews, Svechnikov, Wheeler.

Every player on the PP should have the ability to score. With Marner on the PP if Matthews goes cold or the opposition focuses on him that takes 2 players out of the equation
An 11 million dollar player on the PP that can’t score is a major issue

 

[HamiltonNHL]

PP1 is better with Nylander than Marner

 

[Notsince67]

Put me on the side that couldn't care less if he ever scores on the PP as long as it's successful.

Pretty well. I think hes great and I dont even care if he gets put on pp2. He will find a way to contribute one way or another

 

[Notsince67]

PP1 is better with Nylander than Marner

Last time Marner was on PP2, it became PP1. His unit outperformed Nylander and Matthews.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

We scored 3 PP goals in the Montreal series, for the record, and our scoring overall was lower because of Price.

What we call that is cherry picking and intentionally ignoring the majority of what Marner brings to a PP.

I love Marner but man this line would make even Zekes eyes roll. You're living in the past when it comes to the PP and Marner.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You keep referencing "since Marner came into the league". Well to the best of my memory, when Mitch was younger and less figured out, his PP unit with Bozak JVR and Kadri was incredibly potent and ran like clockwork.

We've discussed since he came into the league, and we've discussed the past 3 years. Marner has helped elevate every PP unit he's been on in his career to be incredibly potent, and this idea that he's "figured out" now is ridiculous and completely baseless. Once again, our PP was rolling before Marner's injury as well.

But in the era of our stacked PP unit, he's gotten predictable, teams frequently just give him space and are happy to let him shoot because he poses no threat, which makes it a lot harder for a guy like Matthews to get wide open.

I know this is the narrative because everybody loves to dump on Marner, but none of this is true. He's not predictable; he's capable of making some of the most unpredictable plays in the entire league. There's nothing abnormal about the placement of PKs and the available space that Marner gets.

Matthews does not have trouble getting open; he's the 2nd best PP goal scorer in the league since the stacked unit came together, only barely behind the guy getting passes from McDavid (and probably would be ahead if not for his wrist injury last year). And if Matthews is being extensively covered, we have multiple other elite goal scorers as available passing options.

Teams are not in a hurry to allow anybody to get shots from prime scoring locations, and Marner shoots the least of any forward on the top unit, so PKs are doing a pretty bad job if that's their plan.

If you only look at his PP production over the last 2 seasons, how does it compare to his first 2? And if it's worse, isn't that cause for concern considering the players he's playing with are better?

Not particularly. I mean, the PP unit he ran in his 2nd season was one of the best generating and best producing PP units in the modern era, so that's a pretty high bar. Pretty much everybody's PP production is lower over the past 2 years, because the PP went through a really cold stretch last year - that seems to be all anybody can remember.

I get the idea that generally, better players = more production, but when we're talking about the PP, while such things will increase the production of the unit, it will not always increase the production of everybody on it, because the unit is less reliant on any one individual. Bigger pie, but split up more evenly. His IPP has dropped quite a bit from his earlier years.

PP production is also inherently variable. A high-producing small sample. A hot streak or cold streak here or there can make a substantial difference.

And if we're talking about goal-scoring exclusively (for some weird reason), having 3 elite goal-scorers on his unit is only going to decrease his individual goal production, because that's not going to be the role he's set up for, for good reason.

Quite frankly, I don't see any reason we shouldn't have a top 3 PP every year

No team has had a top-3 PP every year since Marner came into the league. This is part of the inherent variability of PP production. We're actually tied with Edmonton for most top-3 PP placements since 2016, and we're the 4th best overall since then (0.1% behind 3rd). This while not maximizing our team on the PP like many others - either splitting our best players, or stacking our best players and then only playing them for half of a PP, for some illogical reason.

I watch hockey pretty obsessively, and the looks that our top PP has generated for most the past 2 years are not as rosy as the expected goals numbers make them look.

That's really not true. Even the most obsessive watchers are subject to normal biases, and your perceptions on the quality of opportunities will be affected quite substantially by whether or not the puck actually goes in. We can even see this by all of the people claiming that we've been scoring off these amazing super duper chances over the past couple weeks, when in reality, most of our PP goals over the past couple weeks have largely come off of pretty normal stuff we've been doing the entire time - they just happened to go in at an unsustainable rate over this stretch.

There were about 5 games this year where our PP actually looked incredible with Mitch when all 5 players were moving around more and getting him more involved below the goal line, but this hasn't been the case for most of the previous 2 years.

But that's not true. It only wasn't the case for a 20-30 game stretch last year, which was a collective issue, not a Marner issue, even though people love to arbitrarily blame that stretch on Marner. Any issue anybody has with how the top unit runs at any point in time, and they just blame it all on Marner.

Every player on the PP should have the ability to score.

Marner does have the ability to score. PP goal-scoring comparables since he entered the league include the likes of Kane, Larkin, Couturier, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Kopitar, Gaudreau, Spezza, Giroux, Toews, Svechnikov, Wheeler. It's just not his specialty, and he doesn't have that role on our PP because we have 3 other elite goal scorers on it, who should be taking the majority of shots. There's nothing wrong with having somebody who is primarily a playmaker on a PP. The only thing that matters is that the unit scores - not who does it. Marner helps the unit score.

With Marner on the PP if Matthews goes cold or the opposition focuses on him that takes 2 players out of the equation

What are you even talking about? How does that take 2 players out of the equation? Marner can do more than pass to Matthews (and I'm not sure how you're blaming Marner if Matthews goes cold...), and Matthews can do more than just shoot Marner passes.

 

[zeke]

Which means I was correct posts ago when I said he was 2nd. Glad we could clear that up.

PP P/60, past 3 seasons

1. Matthews: 6.73
2. Marner: 6.22
3. Nylander: 6.18
4. Tavares: 6.12
5. Spezza: 5.84

And at the time of his injury, before everybody else benefitted from a hot streak that Marner could not benefit from, Marner was even higher:

1. Marner: 6.22
2. Matthews: 5.94
3. Tavares: 5.65
4. Nylander: 5.51
5. Spezza: 5.48

And to satisfy you, the above but 5v4 only:

1. Marner: 5.72
2. Spezza: 5.66
3. Tavares: 5.36
4. Nylander: 5.27
5. Matthews: 5.25

And since Marner entered the league...

1. Marner: 6.77
2. Matthews: 6.54
3. Nylander: 5.97
4. Tavares: 5.79
5. Spezza: 5.22

Clearly an excellent PP player, and an important part of our PP.

Yes I acknowledge you were correct on the point discrepancies.

But where did you get that 5v4 number?

I haven't dismissed any of those things. I'm just not:

1. Overemphasizing goals in a 2 week hot streak driven by unsustainable shooting percentages, and attempting to punish a player with years of excellent PP play who wasn't there to benefit from it.
2. Overemphasizing primary points while ignoring overall production and everything else.
3. Suddenly dismissing a whole host of valuable metrics that both of us consistently use, that are valuable in helping us understand how PPs are performing, all because of some unsupported theory you've created about "super duper chances".

You are literally dismissing all three of them again while claiming you're not dismissing them.

No, I've relied on far more than that, but in a discussion about how certain units performed, I looked at how those units performed. Pretty simple. You're the one shrinking the sample size and data points to exclude types of PPs, types of production, etc., on top of ignoring all underlying data.

Come on now - comparing 5v4 is not shrinking the sample, it's comparing apples to apples.

But there's no reason to limit the sample by looking at only complete 5 man units.

Gotta be honest - not sure how anyone who watches the team could make that statement in the first place. It's actually quite amusing, because Spezza "dominates" the puck on his unit more than Marner does on his, which is why he picks up points on such a crazy high percentage of his unit's goals.

Agreed Spezza does dominate that window unit, and rightly so. If Mitch was playing with those 2nd unit guys we'd want him to dominate the puck that much too.

My point is that Mitch's puck domination on the top unit means that we may be underutilizing guys who are at least as good if not better than Mitch- that includes Matthews and Tavares, but the guy most underused imo is Willy.

Not really. Production type distribution is so dependent on role on the PP. Marner is an initiator, not a finisher, so his production will tend to skew less primary than goal scorers. His primary role is to draw defenders out of position, open up space and lanes, and then distribute the puck. Sometimes it's for a great shot directly off the pass (leading to him being the 4th best primary assist producer on the PP since he entered the league), but sometimes it's to isolate the numbers advantage he's created down low for a tic-tac play or a rebound, where he only gets secondary or no credit for his contributions.

Secondary PP points are likely the least valuable points in hockey. Especially on a top unit stacked with elite talent. You know this.

Ignoring this seems silly.

This doesn't mean they're useless, of course.

Discuss what? Again, you haven't actually addressed anything from my original post, and you've explicitly stated that you agree with my main point that Marner should be kept on the top unit.

Discuss the fact that the way Mitch is used on our PP may not be optimal.

Except that's not true at all. We've seen different looks and roles, and the PP was rolling and looking fast and decisive with Marner through the month before his injury as well.

Well the PP may have been clicking but Mitch only had 1 secondary PP point in his last 8 games and 2 in his last 11 - both coming off goals that were tips/rebounds in front.

Also, I'm not sure what you're even talking about in terms of "wide open goalie-way-out-of-position bang in chances". I think you need to go and actually take a look at the PP goals we've scored since Marner, because that's not an accurate description of what's happened.

I'm pretty sure it is.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner does have the ability to score. PP goal-scoring comparables since he entered the league include the likes of Kane, Larkin, Couturier, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Kopitar, Gaudreau, Spezza, Giroux, Toews, Svechnikov, Wheeler.

You said this yesterday. Was not sure what you meant so I did not bother responding but today I can say this is not true. I had to go back 3 years to find that 16 has 6 PP goals, one more than Spezza who barely has PP time and plays PP2 mostly. Most of the others had double Marner's 6. Hell if you go back one year Ritchie and Bunting have 4 each. Perhaps you can show the data that backs your statement ??

 

[zeke]

You keep referencing "since Marner came into the league". Well to the best of my memory, when Mitch was younger and less figured out, his PP unit with Bozak JVR and Kadri was incredibly potent and ran like clockwork. But in the era of our stacked PP unit, he's gotten predictable, teams frequently just give him space and are happy to let him shoot because he poses no threat, which makes it a lot harder for a guy like Matthews to get wide open.

This makes a good point - even looking at the last 3 seasons may be being too generous as Mitch looks worse if you make the sample more recent.

If we even just look at since Keefe took over - I.e. the era of our stacked top unit - the production looks like this (I'll use nhl.com to make Dekes happy but this is all PPs not just 5v4 unfortunately):

Since Keefe took over:

PP p/60

1. Matthews 6.99
2. Nylander 6.85
3. Spezza 6.25
4. Tavares 6.12
5. Marner 6.06

P1/60

1. Spezza 5.51
2. Matthews 5.47
3. Nylander 4.91
4. Tavares 4.67
5. Marner 3.83

And worse if we look just at this season and last:

P60

1. Nylander 7.08
2. Matthews 6.75
3. Tavares 5.69
4. Spezza 5.64
5. Marner 5.16

P1/60

1. Matthews 5.79
2. Spezza 5.64
3. Tavares 4.40
4. Nylander 4.25
5. Marner 3.19

And even worse looking at just this year (I'll use everyone in this sample):

P/60

1. Matthews 11.12
2. Kase 10.84
3. Nylander 9.53
4. Spezza 8.11
5. Tavares 6.95
6. Rielly 6.90
7. Marner 5.80
8. Engvall 5.46
9. Bunting 5.07
10. Ritchie 4.83
11. Sandin 3.48

P1/60

1. Matthews 10.38
2. Spezza 8.11
3. Kase 7.23
4. Tavares 5.56
5. Nylander 5.45
6. Bunting 5.07
7. Engvall 3.64
8. Rielly 3.45
9. Sandin 1.74
10. Marner 1.66
11. Ritchie 1.61

 

[Rogue Leader]

Marner has been injured for 6 games now and Toronto power play has taken off. I have always said Marner should not be on the PP1, having 5 shooting threats >>> 4 shooting threats + 1 passer

So without Marner on the top PP unit and Keefe forced to ice 5 scoring threats this is what happened,

Gm1: Minny - 2 PPGs (Spezza, Matthews)
Gm2: Winnipeg - 2 PPGs (Bunting, Matthews)
Gm3: Columbus - 2 PPGs (Nylander, JT)
Gm4: Tampa - 2 PPGs (Kase, Nylander)
Gm5: Chicago - 2 PPGs (JT, Matthews)
Gm6: Edmonton - 1 PPG (Matthews)

I'm fairly positive all 11 goals were scored on the 1st PP unit. It really shows just how much better the power play is when you ice 5 scoring threats, it forces the defense to respect each shooter and open lanes. When Marner is on the ice it allows the PK unit to shrink the box and allows them to give up the Marner shot and focus on the passing lanes

Please Keefe look at the stats, look at how dominate Toronto is without Marner on the 1st PP unit.

Keep Marner off of PP1!!!

Damn, this is truly remarkable! I support this ... but somehow with his cap hit ... it's like a little bad.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes I acknowledge you were correct on the point discrepancies.
But where did you get that 5v4 number?

NaturalStatTrick, past 3 years up to the point that Marner was injured.

You are literally dismissing all three of them again while claiming you're not dismissing them.

Again, I'm not dismissing them. I'm just also not overemphasizing and exaggerating a couple cherry picked things while ignoring everything else, including all underlying data.

But there's no reason to limit the sample by looking at only complete 5 man units.

There is if you're going to make claims about those 5 man units that aren't true.

My point is that Mitch's puck domination on the top unit means that we may be underutilizing guys who are at least as good if not better than Mitch- that includes Matthews and Tavares, but the guy most underused imo is Willy.

But Marner doesn't dominate the puck. Maybe there's a better way to utilize or place that combination of players, maybe there isn't, but playmakers should always be touching the puck more than goal-scorers as a function of their role, and there's nothing to suggest that removing Marner entirely is beneficial. We want somebody like Matthews getting lost by the opposition and open behind the play; we don't want everybody staring at him and covering him because he has the puck all the time.

Secondary PP points are likely the least valuable points in hockey.

I have a lot more doubt about a player who has secondary production as a significant portion of their ES production than I do about a player who has secondary production as a bigger part of their PP production, because as I discussed, the distribution of production type is highly reliant on role on the PP.

Discuss the fact that the way Mitch is used on our PP may not be optimal.

For like the 5th time, I have no problem with mixing up our PP dynamics and trying different stuff (which we have); I've merely pushed back on this ridiculous idea that Marner is dragging down our PP and should be taken off the top unit.

I'm pretty sure it is.

I suggest you go and re-watch the PP goals we've scored since Marner's injury, because it's not.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You said this yesterday. Was not sure what you meant so I did not bother responding but today I can say this is not true.

It is true. Those players range from +0.16 to -0.19 PP G/60 of Marner since Marner entered the league.

 

[LeafSteel]

We scored 3 PP goals in the Montreal series, for the record, and our scoring overall was lower because of Price.

What we call that is cherry picking and intentionally ignoring the majority of what Marner brings to a PP.