Toronto has scored 11PPGs since Marner injury

[therealkoho]

PP is certainly up, but and it's a big but

5v5 scoring is down and the PK is getting pretty leaky

so there's that

Even the Penguins can still score PP goals without Sid and Geno in the line-up

 

[TOGuy14]

The advantage of the PP is that one player gets to go uncovered for two minutes on the ice.

If one of those players is of no risk to score, you are negating your only advantage.

Marner needs to at least be a somewhat chance of shooting and scoring to be on PP1

 

[robertmac43]

I would be fine with him on PP2. He would get a lot of touches and that unit could use an injection of creativity.

 

[Racer88]

The bottom line is the PP has been better since Marner has been injured and no amount of twisting or spin can show otherwise

 

[TakeTheBody]

No, the BS is speculation that Marner needs his ego pacified.

That's just you defending Mitch. Which is fine. Kool-Aid tastes good. The real answer will be how the PP performs while Mitch gets better. And then where he's assigned when he returns.

 

[HolyCrap]

I gotcha. stud and the fa. ugh. I have ur back. Love you bud.

 

[HolyCrap]

I gotcha. stud and the fa. ugh. I have ur back. Love you bud.

 

[Enga Olly]

It mat be a case of predictability. I can't point to specifics because I'm not a tactician, but overall MM on the PP has been a case of extremes - short periods of white hot success, followed by stone cold failure. Not putting it on MM shoulders exclusively, just that's the way it has been. With the recent success of our PP without Marner perhaps Keefe can see a need to rotate Mitch out of the #1 unit and only occasionally insert him back into the top unit.

 

[ANDI P IS CUTE]

MARNER AND DADDY WILL NEVER be left of pp1 regardless of how terrible it is with him on it. Book it. Buddy Kyle will never let it happen either.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Marner is one of the best PP players in the league since he entered it.

You're incorrectly attributing a PP hot streak caused by converting at a wildly unsustainable rate to a lack of Marner, when there's really nothing to support that.

My eyes support the fact that without Mitchy's shitty shot not being a threat, the PP looks way more dangerous.

 

[Joel Ward]

Once we're healthy, a good first step would be never putting Engval on the PP again. Run Matthews out there for 1:30-2:00 and split the time 60/40 between the first and second unit.

PP1:
Tavares
Nylander Kase Matthews
Rielly

PP2:
Ritchie/Simmer
Marner Spezza Matthews
Sandin

 

[Its not your fault]

Marner is one of the best PP players in the league since he entered it.

You're incorrectly attributing a PP hot streak caused by converting at a wildly unsustainable rate to a lack of Marner, when there's really nothing to support that.

And then we will be gone in round 1 again. Marner needs a stronger shot. Does not even have to be accurate with the talent on that line.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And then we will be gone in round 1 again.

There is no correlation.

 

[Its not your fault]

There is no correlation.

Its not the lack of skill it's Marners release. Lacks that Jam. This results in his shooting lane open being open and block passing routes. Enter back pass but that it's to fancy as well.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Its not the lack of skill it's Marners release. Lacks that Jam. This results in his shooting lane open being open and block passing routes. Enter back pass but that it's to fancy as well.

My eyes support the fact that without Mitchy's shitty shot not being a threat, the PP looks way more dangerous.

You may have personal feelings about Marner on the PP, but Marner being on the PP isn't why we've lost in the 1st round, and pretty much every single piece of data we have (and the eye test) shows Marner to be an excellent PP player that has produced among the best in the league and elevated any unit he's been on since he entered the league. Maybe you're not as knowledgeable about this stuff as you think, and are wildly exaggerating the negative impacts of Marner's average shot, while ignoring the countless positives he brings.

 

[zeke]

You may have personal feelings about Marner on the PP, but Marner being on the PP isn't why we've lost in the 1st round, and pretty much every single piece of data we have (and the eye test) shows Marner to be an excellent PP player that has produced among the best in the league and elevated any unit he's been on since he entered the league. Maybe you're not as knowledgeable about this stuff as you think, and are wildly exaggerating the negative impacts of Marner's average shot, while ignoring the countless positives he brings.

I wonder about what secondary assists mean to those numbers tho.

TOR PP p/60 since 2016/17:

1. Marner 6.68
2. Matthews 6.61
3. Spezza 6.23
4. Nylander 6.16
5. JVR 6.15
6. Tavares 5.84
7. Rielly 5.84
8. Kadri 5.56
9. Bozak 5.17
10. Bunting 5.03

p1/60

1. Matthews 5.25
2. Spezza 5.25
3. Bunting 5.03
4. JVR 4.73
5. Nylander 4.62
6. Tavares 4.50
7. Kadri 4.31
8. Marner 4.27
9. Bozak 3.83
10. Ennis 3.65

 

[Mess]

And then we will be gone in round 1 again. Marner needs a stronger shot. Does not even have to be accurate with the talent on that line.

In 2020-21 playoffs in 7 games vs. Montreal ....... Marner recorded 0-1-1 point on the PP [of his total 4 points in the series]
&
In 2019-20 playoffs in 5 games vs. Columbus .... Marner recorded 0-2-2 points on the PP [of his total 4 points in the series]
&
In 2018-19 playoff in 7 games vs. Boston .............. Marner recorded 0-2-2 points on the PP [of his total 4 points in the series]

Total last 19 playoff games .. Marner 0 goals 5 assists 5 PP points, in the context of Leafs having lost 11 of those 19 games in all 3 series.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I wonder about what secondary assists mean to those numbers tho.

Not sure why you're including players with as little as 35 minutes on the PP (compared to Marner's 1000+) shooting at unsustainable rates, and ignoring Marner's contribution to these players having higher than their normal primary PP production while with Marner (Marner shoots up the list if you include their entire 2016-present PP samples), and ignoring the ways in which Marner elevates the chance generation and results of units he's on, but aside from that, Marner's primary production is actually quite good as well, and while secondary assists are worth less, they are not worthless.

 

[zeke]

Not sure why you're including players with as little as 35 minutes on the PP (compared to Marner's 1000+ in that time) shooting at unsustainable rates, and ignoring Marner's contribution to these players having higher than their normal primary PP production while with Marner (Marner shoots up the list if you include their entire 2016-present PP samples), and ignoring the ways in which Marner elevates the chance generation and results of units he's on, but aside from that, Marner's primary production is actually quite good as well, and while secondary assists are worth less, they are not worthless.

I didn't say they were worthless, I just wonder about what exactly they mean, especially on the PP, and on this team:

and fine i'll put a 150min minimum filter on it:

p/60

1. Marner 6.68
2. Matthews 6.61
3. Spezza 6.23
4. Nylander 6.16
5. JVR 6.15
6. Tavares 5.84
7. Rielly 5.84
8. Kadri 5.56
9. Bozak 5.17
10. Zaitsev 3.98

p1/60

1. Matthews 5.25
2. Spezza 5.25
3. JVR 4.73
4. Nylander 4.62
5. Tavares 4.50
6. Kadri 4.31
7. Marner 4.27
8. Bozak 3.83
9. Rielly 2.77
10. Hyman 2.75

 

[Dekes For Days]

and fine i'll put a 150min minimum filter on it:

You know enough that that should have been done in the first place, at minimum. And it's unlike you to completely ignore everything else to rely solely on individual primary production for your conclusions.

What we really have here is some players who had increased primary production above their normal while playing here with Marner, and you think that's reason to question the effectiveness of Marner?

 

[zeke]

You know enough that that should have been done in the first place, at minimum. And it's unlike you to completely ignore everything else to rely solely on individual primary production for your conclusions.

What we really have here is some players who had increased primary production above their normal while playing here with Marner, and you think that's reason to question the effectiveness of Marner?

hmm well it seems like you don't even want to consider the idea so that's fine. i guess you can act all upset that bunting was included on the list though.

Personally I think it's interesting to consider, especially in light of the unit's success with someone like spezza in there instead of marner.

And it makes me wonder what his numbers might look like if he wasn't being given the #1 zone-entry duty on the PP anymore (especially given that imo willy might be better at that anyways).

 

[Dekes For Days]

hmm well it seems like you don't even want to consider the idea so that's fine.

I'm willing to consider different combinations and ideas. I'm not willing to throw out all data that supports Marner as an excellent PP player, in order to look exclusively at individual primary PP production (which is still very good for Marner) in misleading ways to downplay Marner's impact, even though what you're really showing is a bunch of players that had their primary production elevated above their normal while playing with Marner, supporting Marner's impact.

For example... PP P1/60:

Kadri, 2014-2016: 2.51
Kadri, 2016-2019 (with Marner): 4.26
Kadri, since: 2.62

JVR, 2014-2016: 3.43
JVR, 2016-2018 (with Marner): 4.72
JVR, since: 3.26

And you somehow think this is justification to question Marner's effectiveness because the stacked unit generated less but shot an unsustainable 33% in the 10 minutes that unit featured Spezza (himself a very good PP player) instead of Marner? Come on Zeke, you're better than this.

i guess you can act all upset that bunting was included on the list though.

When you come across people posting data in misleading or inappropriate ways, you have plenty to say as well.

 

[zeke]

I'm willing to consider different combinations and ideas. I'm not willing to throw out all data that supports Marner as an excellent PP player, in order to look exclusively at individual primary PP production (which is still very good for Marner) in misleading ways to downplay Marner's impact, even though what you're really showing is a bunch of players that had their primary production elevated above their normal while playing with Marner, supporting Marner's impact.

For example... PP P1/60:

Kadri, 2014-2016: 2.51
Kadri, 2016-2019 (with Marner): 4.26
Kadri, since: 2.62

JVR, 2014-2016: 3.43
JVR, 2016-2018 (with Marner): 4.72
JVR, since: 3.26

And you somehow think this is justification to question Marner's effectiveness because the stacked unit generated less but shot an unsustainable 33% in the 10 minutes that unit featured Spezza (himself a very good PP player) instead of Marner? Come on Zeke, you're better than this.

You're still discussing this needlessly antagonistically imo. It's true that that marner/jvr/kadri unit was dynamte those years but that impacted Marner too - and actually might look marner look worse than my above analysis.

If you're going to split up the years like that then we can do that all together:

16-17 to 18-19 (min 100min):

p/60

1. Marner 7.04
2. Rielly 6.57
3. Matthews 6.51
4. JVR 6.15
5. Nylander 5.91
6. Kadri 5.56
7. Bozak 5.17
8. Tavares 5.14
9. Zaitsev 3.98
10. Gardiner 3.90

p1/60

1. Matthews 5.09
2. JVR 4.73
3. Marner 4.62
4. Nylander 4.60
5. Kadri 4.31
6. Tavares 4.00
7. Bozak 3.83
8. Rielly 3.09
9. Marleau 2.75
10. Komarov 2.73


19-20 to 21-22

p/60

1. Matthews 6.72
2. Nylander 6.45
3. Spezza 6.23
4. Tavares 6.20
5. Marner 6.19
6. Hyman 4.98
7. Rielly 4.93
8. Barrie 3.94
9. Kerfoot 2.53
10. ---

p1/60

1. Matthews 5.43
2. Spezza 5.25
3. Tavares 4.76
4. Nylander 4.65
5. Marner 3.80
6. Hyman 2.99
7. Rielly 2.38
8. Barrie 1.64
9. Kerfoot 0.50
10. ---

So looking at just the last 3 seasons, post-Kadri/JVR units, it looks like Marner, while still obviously good, has maybe been the weakest link in the top unit. (a couple notes - Spezza's got a pretty nice sample of almost 200 minutes compared to just over 400 for the top unit guys so it's not nothing, and comes mostly with 2nd unit guys - and Rielly was stuck on the 2nd unit for much of this sample too).

At the very least, the numbers might indicate that the PP should be less marner-focussed, and maybe that his role on that unit should change significantly.

Also, that Spezza may legitimately deserve a shot on the top unit.

When you come across people posting data in misleading or inappropriate ways, you have plenty to say as well.

ah come on it was one guy.

 

[horner]

Marner has been injured for 6 games now and Toronto power play has taken off. I have always said Marner should not be on the PP1, having 5 shooting threats >>> 4 shooting threats + 1 passer

So without Marner on the top PP unit and Keefe forced to ice 5 scoring threats this is what happened,

Gm1: Minny - 2 PPGs (Spezza, Matthews)
Gm2: Winnipeg - 2 PPGs (Bunting, Matthews)
Gm3: Columbus - 2 PPGs (Nylander, JT)
Gm4: Tampa - 2 PPGs (Kase, Nylander)
Gm5: Chicago - 2 PPGs (JT, Matthews)
Gm6: Edmonton - 1 PPG (Matthews)

I'm fairly positive all 11 goals were scored on the 1st PP unit. It really shows just how much better the power play is when you ice 5 scoring threats, it forces the defense to respect each shooter and open lanes. When Marner is on the ice it allows the PK unit to shrink the box and allows them to give up the Marner shot and focus on the passing lanes

Please Keefe look at the stats, look at how dominate Toronto is without Marner on the 1st PP unit.

Keep Marner off of PP1!!!

Coincidence or not
Mathews was on a heater 11 gp 13 g
Your pp is going to look great when mathews is ripping it up .
They have to worry about him it opens up everyone else.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you're going to split up the years like that then we can do that all together:

You seem to have missed the point of those splits. You were attempting to use the primary production of Marner relative to secondary players to downplay Marner's PP effectiveness, despite the fact that Marner still has good PP and primary PP production, and everything points to Marner being the primary reason for those secondary players having primary production significantly higher than their normal during those samples here in the first place.

As for the small samples we have to compare a Matthews-Tavares-Nylander-Rielly-Spezza unit with a Matthews-Tavares-Nylander-Rielly-Marner unit since 2019, we see that the unit with Spezza generates less shots, less scoring chances, less high danger chances, and a lower expected goals, while being leaky defensively, but has generated a higher goals per 60 over a tiny sample a result of a wildly unsustainable shooting percentage.

I'm open to riding hot streaks, or considering different roles and make-ups, but all data supports Marner being an excellent PP player, and I'm going to need to see more than some cherry picked recency bias to permanently move one of the better PP players in the league and our best playmaker off a top PP unit with the league's best goal scorer.