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Toronto FC: Toronto FC/Canada Soccer Discussion (2022 Edition) - Italy Edition

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What's most impressive to me is how much the CSA has turned it around as a program. I remember around the 2000s and the early 2010s just being frustrated and confused at how bad we were when we had some pretty solid talent with the likes of Dero and Deguzman and a younger atiba. A turnstyle of pretty shitty managers with guys like Dale Mitchel and Stephen Hart didn't help.

The program has done a complete 180 thanks to Herdman and his staff. Obviously the talent has improved so much too with real squad depth and legit star players. It's awesome. The world cup seemed so out of reach a few years ago, but what's most impressive to me is how the qualified. The lead the pack pretty early on and just kept getting better to the point where they really and truly established themselves as the best team in concacaf.

Yesterday was the start of the party,... but this team is just in its early stages. They'll get better and better in the years to come. What a time to be a Canadian soccer fan!
 
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It was awesome to see all the CMNT Alumni players at BMO Field yesterday soaking in the moment with the team. Those guys have been through some dark times and deserve to take pride in this historic accomplishment.
 
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What would be the best case scenario for the WC draw? Can they still get to pot 3 and then hope for Qatar and a lower end pot 2 pull?
 
joepeps said:
best part is... no one is out there celebrating making it to the WC. No fans of any team do
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Well this is arguably the biggest moment in Canadian soccer, so people should be excited. This is different than people cheering for another country when they win a group game for an event they routinely qualify for.
 
Did you really expect anything else from Americans?

1648499807104.png


When they haven't technically qualified yet.
 
GoonieFace said:
Well this is arguably the biggest moment in Canadian soccer, so people should be excited. This is different than people cheering for another country when they win a group game for an event they routinely qualify for.
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I celebrated at home in tears... in November we can celebrate outside.
 
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LeafsOHLRangers98 said:
What would be the best case scenario for the WC draw? Can they still get to pot 3 and then hope for Qatar and a lower end pot 2 pull?
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Yes to all.

Right now, two lower ranked countries have qualified (Saudi Arabia at 53 and Ecuador at 44). There are three matchups involving two teams that are lower ranked where one is guaranteed to qualify (two in Africa and one in Oceania). Beyond that, we need help (upsets and/or passing qualifying teams in the world rankings). The loss makes the latter less likely.

Africa is the most likely hope for an upset (both Sweden and Poland are ranked higher)
 
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Early African games are at the half. Senegal (20th in the world) and Nigeria (33rd) are tied 1-1 on aggregate in their games against Egypt and Ghana respectively.
 
Ghana (61st in the world) has just made the World Cup over Nigeria (32nd).
 
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Deebo said:
Does this mean a win against Panama tomorrow and Canada is in pot 3?

Edit: Yes

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Right now, 36 Tunisia, one of Algeria/Cameroon, 61 Ghana, 53 Saudi Arabia, 44 Ecuador, the 13th Europe team (thanks to Ukraine) and the two inter-continental winners are below us.

To make pot 3, we just need to ensure that Tunisia doesn't pass us.
 
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Bjindaho said:
Right now, 36 Tunisia, one of Algeria/Cameroon, 61 Ghana, 53 Saudi Arabia, 44 Ecuador, the 13th Europe team (thanks to Ukraine) and the two inter-continental winners are below us.

To make pot 3, we just need to ensure that Tunisia doesn't pass us.
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I've done some quick and dirty calculations in Excel.

Tunisia currently has 1498.160 points
Cameroon has 1466.087
Ghana has 1379.808
Saudi Arabia 1432.867

Canada has 1508.700 right now. The three scenarios are:

W = 1519.605
D = 1507.105
L = 1494.605

Note: As long as we are above ALL of those teams, we hit pot 3.
 
Bjindaho said:
I've done some quick and dirty calculations in Excel.

Tunisia currently has 1498.160 points
Cameroon has 1466.087
Ghana has 1379.808
Saudi Arabia 1432.867

Canada has 1508.700 right now. The three scenarios are:

W = 1519.605
D = 1507.105
L = 1494.605

Note: As long as we are above ALL of those teams, we hit pot 3.
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nice one. thanks for clarifying. are we the only team who still has a game to play?
 
fancy lad said:
nice one. thanks for clarifying. are we the only team who still has a game to play?
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Yes, we are.

The African clubs all played 2 leg finals.

AFC finished round 3 yesterday (Round 4 is between 3rd place teams to see who qualifies for the intercontinental playoffs).

I believe that all matches for teams that could be in the first 3 pots have to be done today, because they will officially re-rank tomorrow, then have the draw Friday.

One thing we are desperately hoping to avoid on the draw (which is a ridiculous caveat this time only) is somehow getting in a group with a top team from each of the first two pots and the final Uefa qualifier (Wales is the likely qualifier and they would have knocked us back to pot 4 if not for the conflict in Ukraine).
 
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Would argue we're far worse off getting the CONMEBOL/AFC playoff winner from Pot 3 (which is about three times as likely as getting the UEFA playoff winner). Think Peru is clear of Wales/Ukraine/Scotland.

The rest of the Pot 4 teams are a clear step down from Pot 3, but definitely an increased chance of the true 'Group of Death' out of Pot 3. Also a worse chance of getting Qatar in Pot 3.
 
theaub said:
Would argue we're far worse off getting the CONMEBOL/AFC playoff winner from Pot 3 (which is about three times as likely as getting the UEFA playoff winner). Think Peru is clear of Wales/Ukraine/Scotland.

The rest of the Pot 4 teams are a clear step down from Pot 3, but definitely an increased chance of the true 'Group of Death' out of Pot 3. Also a worse chance of getting Qatar in Pot 3.
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Peru is currently 22nd in the World with Wales 20th. Neither is optimal.

The odds on pot 1 are 75% chance of a Uefa team, 12.5% chance of Qatar and 12.5% chance of Brazil in a vaccuum.

Pot 2 is extremely skewed. Because we cannot hit Mexico or the US (which will both be in that pot), we can only hit Uefa (66% chance), Uruguay or Senegal.

Pot 3 is an interesting bag. We cannot end up in a group with the US and Mexico. The other European countries cannot end up in a pot with 2 Euro countries. So we are hoping that Qatar and/or Brazil draw European countries in pot 2 because if they don't, the odds against us drawing Qatar drop off a cliff (due to Uefa not being able to have 3 teams in a group and them having 6 members in pot 1, 4 members in pot 2, and 2 members in pot 3).
 
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Bjindaho said:
Peru is currently 22nd in the World with Wales 20th. Neither is optimal.

The odds on pot 1 are 75% chance of a Uefa team, 12.5% chance of Qatar and 12.5% chance of Brazil in a vaccuum.

Pot 2 is extremely skewed. Because we cannot hit Mexico or the US (which will both be in that pot), we can only hit Uefa (66% chance), Uruguay or Senegal.

Pot 3 is an interesting bag. We cannot end up in a group with the US and Mexico. The other European countries cannot end up in a pot with 2 Euro countries. So we are hoping that Qatar and/or Brazil draw European countries in pot 2 because if they don't, the odds against us drawing Qatar drop off a cliff (due to Uefa not being able to have 3 teams in a group and them having 6 members in pot 1, 4 members in pot 2, and 2 members in pot 3).
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Thanks for posting this, this is some great information. Still can’t believe this is happening.
 
I just want to say that as someone who despises the US's cockiness, I am cheering for a 6-0 Costa Rica win over the US tonight :)

Also, some US writers are suggesting that they should forfeit (and lose 3-0). I think that doing that would cause some concerns from Fifa (since it goes completely against the concept of fair play).
 
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