Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[zeke]

I called that the year they dumped Hainsey and brought in Sparks. This year it's unlikely. Unless the goalie situation goes real bad.

Those were 2 different years. The year they brought on Sparks they finished in 7th place overall.

The year after when they dropped Hainsey they did fall to 13th and into bubble territory, though of course were elite after the coaching change and have been ever since.

 

[Bomber0104]

I honestly feel this is an 'end justifies the means' scenario.
If Murray puts up Vezina numbers and carries us deep into the playoff it becomes a steal.
If Murray poops the bed, we got thrashed in the trade.
If Murray is mediocre, then we can split hairs as to weather he was good enough to justify the trade.

Peg probabilities towards it.

My feel on the player..

Vezina = 2%
Good = 20%
Bad = 50%
Mrazek = 28%

He played 20 games last year and 27 the year before...

Even if he plays "Good" and only can give us a few dozen starts that's still "Bad" for us as a team...

 

[Maple Leaf]

Probably trade another first next year

 

[saltming]

Peg probabilities towards it.

My feel on the player..

Vezina = 2%
Good = 20%
Bad = 50%
Mrazek = 28%

Well last year he was good until injury.
I'm 60/40 leaning to the good maybe even 70/30 but I will admit I'm optimistic after hearing Kevin woodleys interview.

 

[justashadowof]

Peg probabilities towards it.

My feel on the player..

Vezina = 2%
Good = 20%
Bad = 50%
Mrazek = 28%

He played 20 games last year and 27 the year before...

Even if he plays "Good" and only can give us a few dozen starts that's still "Bad" for us as a team...

This intersects all of the above but saying around 50% he battles long term injuries and Samsonov becomes the team's de facto starter with Woll as the backup.

 

[DarkKnight]

Peg probabilities towards it.

My feel on the player..

Vezina = 2%
Good = 20%
Bad = 50%
Mrazek = 28%

He played 20 games last year and 27 the year before...

Even if he plays "Good" and only can give us a few dozen starts that's still "Bad" for us as a team...

Hopefully he kills it, but it’s a gamble and given the odds, the retention was ridiculous. Sure it could all look a steal, never changes the fact you over paid a team desperate to dump a guy.

 

[ACC1224]

I honestly feel this is an 'end justifies the means' scenario.
If Murray puts up Vezina numbers and carries us deep into the playoff it becomes a steal.
If Murray poops the bed, we got thrashed in the trade.
If Murray is mediocre, then we can split hairs as to weather he was good enough to justify the trade.

IMO it was a poor return regardless of how Murray performs. There was the potential to squeeze more out of Ottawa and they failed to do that.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Let's face it our goaltending hasn't been good for like 3 years.

Atleast we have a playoff goalie and a young potential franchise guy if he gets his head out of his ass.

 

[ULF_55]

IMO it was a poor return regardless of how Murray performs. There was the potential to squeeze more out of Ottawa and they failed to do that.

Perhaps.

But even if they got him at 50% and he stinks does it matter how cheap?

 

[kb]

IMO it was a poor return regardless of how Murray performs. There was the potential to squeeze more out of Ottawa and they failed to do that.

Again, it's been reported there was another suitor.

Call it what you will, but it wasn't a trade where Toronto was bidding against itself. As Dubas said, that was the deal. Take it or both sides move on. They liked the player and are betting on him keeping his form from the second half.

He's now the 22nd highest cap hit among goalies, and he came with 2 draft picks and a stellar playoff resume. Undefeated in Game 7's. 2 Stanley Cups. 28 years old.

The retention and draft pick help mitigate the risk.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There was the potential to squeeze more out of Ottawa

There was not.

 

[Zybalto]

Let's face it our goaltending hasn't been good for like 3 years.

Atleast we have a playoff goalie and a young potential franchise guy if he gets his head out of his ass.

Yup, NHL ranks since Keefe took over:

Points%: .678 (116-50-19, 2nd in the NHL)
Team save%: 90.20 (20th in the NHL)

Kinda crazy the team has the 2nd best record in the league while also having the 20th best goaltending. Florida is the only other team close to that over that stretch having the 3rd best record and 15th best goaltending but Toronto has better defensive numbers.

 

[crump]

Looking at Murrays game logs last year, of the 10 games he allowed 2 or fewer goals against last year, Ottawa lost 6 of them. Let's not ignore what a crappy team he played for. He had issues for sure, but that cant' be good for your confidence in your team.

 

[Mess]

Perhaps.

But even if they got him at 50% and he stinks does it matter how cheap?

Matt Murray past 2 years

2020-21 - Ottawa Senators - NHL ..... 27 games .. Record: 10W-13L-1OTL.. GAA: 3.38 & SV% : 0.893
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .... 20 games .. Record: 5W-12L-2OTL ... GAA: 3.05 & SV%: 0.906

Totals ................................................................ 47 games .. Record 15W-25L-3OTL .... GAA 3.25 & SV%: 0.899

What if you knew in advance that he stunk to begin with? Cheap is a relative term to acquisition cost, but Murray's back-loaded contract had $15 mil remaining on the last 2 years which you convinced Ottawa to pick up 25% per season or $3 mil total.

Leafs are taking a pretty big risk here due to injuries and performance, because 33 points earned in 47 games is not a playoff pace its a 58 point pace on a full 82 games.

FUN WITH MATH

Ilya Samsonov is also coming off his worst year also.

2021-22 - Washington Capitals - NHL .. 44 games Record : 23W-12L- 5OTL .. GAA: 3.02 & SV%: 0.896

If you combined Murray (starter past 2 years) 47 games - Record 15W-25L-3OTL + Samsonov 44 games - Record : 23W-12L- 5OTL = 91 games .. 38 wins 37 losses 8 OTL = 84 points

For comparison purposes the goalies they're replacing Jack Campbell .. 49 games .. 31W-9L-6 OTL + Petr Mrazek .. 20 games.. 12W-6L-0OTL = 69 games .. 43 wins 15 losses 6 OTL = 92 points

On paper and by their own stats the new combo stinks in comparison to whom they're replacing and so did the Leafs upgrade or downgrade in net?

 

[Mess]

Looking at Murrays game logs last year, of the 10 games he allowed 2 or fewer goals against last year, Ottawa lost 6 of them. Let's not ignore what a crappy team he played for. He had issues for sure, but that cant' be good for your confidence in your team.

Now check out Ottawa's other goalie Anton Forsberg with the very same crappy team in front of him than Murray.

Forsberg played in 46 games posted 2.82 GAA and .917 SV% and finished #16 OA in Goals Saved above expected at 8.5.

Oddly Sens were only a crappy team while Murray was in net and not when Forsberg was as he posted very respectable stats.

If fact Forsberg's stats on a crappy non playoff team were better than Jack Campbell 49 games .. 2.64 GAA & .914 SV% and #68 OA in Goals Saved above expected @ -2.3 on a good playoff team.

How do we reconcile all this?

 

[Peasy]

Matt Murray past 2 years

2020-21 - Ottawa Senators - NHL ..... 27 games .. Record: 10W-13L-1OTL.. GAA: 3.38 & SV% : 0.893
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .... 20 games .. Record: 5W-12L-2OTL ... GAA: 3.05 & SV%: 0.906

Totals ................................................................ 47 games .. Record 15W-25L-3OTL .... GAA 3.25 & SV%: 0.899

What if you knew in advance that he stunk to begin with? Cheap is a relative term to acquisition cost, but Murray's back-loaded contract had $15 mil remaining on the last 2 years which you convinced Ottawa to pick up 25% per season or $3 mil total.

Leafs are taking a pretty big risk here due to injuries and performance, because 33 points earned in 47 games is not a playoff pace its a 58 point pace on a full 82 games.

FUN WITH MATH

Ilya Samsonov is also coming off his worst year also.

2021-22 - Washington Capitals - NHL .. 44 games Record : 23W-12L- 5OTL .. GAA: 3.02 & SV%: 0.896

If you combined Murray (starter past 2 years) 47 games - Record 15W-25L-3OTL + Samsonov 44 games - Record : 23W-12L- 5OTL = 91 games .. 38 wins 37 losses 8 OTL = 84 points

For comparison purposes the goalies they're replacing Jack Campbell .. 49 games .. 31W-9L-6 OTL + Petr Mrazek .. 20 games.. 12W-6L-0OTL = 69 games .. 43 wins 15 losses 6 OTL = 92 points

On paper and by their own stats the new combo stinks in comparison to whom they're replacing and so did the Leafs upgrade or downgrade in net?

Why in the world are you trying to prove a point by using wins/losses for goalies that played on 3 separate teams...

 

[ULF_55]

Matt Murray past 2 years

2020-21 - Ottawa Senators - NHL ..... 27 games .. Record: 10W-13L-1OTL.. GAA: 3.38 & SV% : 0.893
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .... 20 games .. Record: 5W-12L-2OTL ... GAA: 3.05 & SV%: 0.906

Totals ................................................................ 47 games .. Record 15W-25L-3OTL .... GAA 3.25 & SV%: 0.899

What if you knew in advance that he stunk to begin with? Cheap is a relative term to acquisition cost, but Murray's back-loaded contract had $15 mil remaining on the last 2 years which you convinced Ottawa to pick up 25% per season or $3 mil total.

Leafs are taking a pretty big risk here due to injuries and performance, because 33 points earned in 47 games is not a playoff pace its a 58 point pace on a full 82 games.

FUN WITH MATH

Ilya Samsonov is also coming off his worst year also.

2021-22 - Washington Capitals - NHL .. 44 games Record : 23W-12L- 5OTL .. GAA: 3.02 & SV%: 0.896

If you combined Murray (starter past 2 years) 47 games - Record 15W-25L-3OTL + Samsonov 44 games - Record : 23W-12L- 5OTL = 91 games .. 38 wins 37 losses 8 OTL = 84 points

For comparison purposes the goalies they're replacing Jack Campbell .. 49 games .. 31W-9L-6 OTL + Petr Mrazek .. 20 games.. 12W-6L-0OTL = 69 games .. 43 wins 15 losses 6 OTL = 92 points

On paper and by their own stats the new combo stinks in comparison to whom they're replacing and so did the Leafs upgrade or downgrade in net?

Well, the good thing is there is no carryover rule in the NHL, so no matter how good or bad you were last year they all start at zero this year.

Looks like if they play Samsonov 82 games he'd end up with 95 points.
So a slight improvement should get them into the playoffs.

 

[ACC1224]

Perhaps.

But even if they got him at 50% and he stinks does it matter how cheap?

Not really although it would offer a little more cap space which they can obviously use.
I was alluding more to the underwhelming sweeteners that were received.
If the didn't retain more they should have paid more, IMO.

 

[ULF_55]

Not really although it would offer a little more cap space which they can obviously use.
I was alluding more to the underwhelming sweeteners that were received.
If the didn't retain more they should have paid more, IMO.

Dubas was asked that, and had a reasonable answer.

They could have involved a 3rd. team, but the cost was too high because of the real money involved.

I wasn't unhappy about Campbell leaving, he is a long term gamble, whereas Murray is cheap to buy-out at end of season.

I don't mind Dubas dying on this hill.

 

[ACC1224]

Dubas was asked that, and had a reasonable answer.

They could have involved a 3rd. team, but the cost was too high because of the real money involved.

I wasn't unhappy about Campbell leaving, he is a long term gamble, whereas Murray is cheap to buy-out at end of season.

I don't mind Dubas dying on this hill.

Yeah I don't mind the experiment, I didn't have much faith in Campbell.
They wouldn't have needed a 3rd Team, just get Ottawa to pay more. 3rd & 7th wasn't good enough, IMO.

 

[X66]

I'm not saying that Murray is going to be a slam dunk, but I'm not worried about his play as much as I'm worried about his health.

Last year by the numbers he was better than a lot of goalies on a really bad team.

His health is the major concern though.

 

[Sypher04]

Matt Murray past 2 years

2020-21 - Ottawa Senators - NHL ..... 27 games .. Record: 10W-13L-1OTL.. GAA: 3.38 & SV% : 0.893
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .... 20 games .. Record: 5W-12L-2OTL ... GAA: 3.05 & SV%: 0.906

Totals ................................................................ 47 games .. Record 15W-25L-3OTL .... GAA 3.25 & SV%: 0.899

What if you knew in advance that he stunk to begin with? Cheap is a relative term to acquisition cost, but Murray's back-loaded contract had $15 mil remaining on the last 2 years which you convinced Ottawa to pick up 25% per season or $3 mil total.

Leafs are taking a pretty big risk here due to injuries and performance, because 33 points earned in 47 games is not a playoff pace its a 58 point pace on a full 82 games.

FUN WITH MATH

Ilya Samsonov is also coming off his worst year also.

2021-22 - Washington Capitals - NHL .. 44 games Record : 23W-12L- 5OTL .. GAA: 3.02 & SV%: 0.896

If you combined Murray (starter past 2 years) 47 games - Record 15W-25L-3OTL + Samsonov 44 games - Record : 23W-12L- 5OTL = 91 games .. 38 wins 37 losses 8 OTL = 84 points

For comparison purposes the goalies they're replacing Jack Campbell .. 49 games .. 31W-9L-6 OTL + Petr Mrazek .. 20 games.. 12W-6L-0OTL = 69 games .. 43 wins 15 losses 6 OTL = 92 points

On paper and by their own stats the new combo stinks in comparison to whom they're replacing and so did the Leafs upgrade or downgrade in net?

Kind of meaningless when you consider the teams they each play behind. Ottawa is a tire fire defensively and also couldn’t score enough either. Basically from January on most of our games were won on the potency of our offense, and certainly not wins that should be attributed to the goaltenders

 

[notbias]

Why in the world are you trying to prove a point by using wins/losses for goalies that played on 3 separate teams...

Because he doesn't try to prove points, he just posts a bunch of stats, and people who are illiterate see some things bolded and in nice colours and yell "see I was right!"

 

[saltming]

IMO it was a poor return regardless of how Murray performs. There was the potential to squeeze more out of Ottawa and they failed to do that.

How can it be a poor return if he wins the Vezina or takes us to the cup?
If he shuts the bed or is just mediocre I would agree, if we judge him at the end of the season compared to all the goalies that make the same money, we could better evaluate his worth.
That's jmho

 

[X66]

Also if you look at the chart on the right, it looked like Murray rebounded huge last year, and likely why the Leafs chose him over Campbell(who was NOT great last year)