Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[BackPassChampions]

If elkin is right about what's been ailing Murray and they fix it and Murray returns to form its a huge win. This is where dubas is gambling. Last year Murray played well until injured. Injury is the second gamble. There is still time to get a 1B or proven backup, but is there enough cap space without a trade?
Of it doesn't work out, most likely big changes coming up.
How can we know which way it will go? Speciation is all there is right now

What did Elkin say is ailing Murray?

 

[LeafEgo]

I wouldn't have made the move they made yesterday, no. But I'm also struggling for alternatives that I'd feel great about.

If Matt Murray is the answer, it's because I exhausted all the possible trade avenues (which they may have), and the possible free agent options (which they haven't yet).

It's also a move I only make if Ottawa eats more than 25%. Their internal budgets probably don't allow them to sit on 50%, but I at least try and get that cap hit down to $4M.

When you did this thought exercise I suspect you kind of felt like you were backed into a corner..

Agree completely on the retention. The difference was critical: a 75% maneuver meant being able to protect the downside. At 25%, that goes out the window, and we're just playing roulette with worse odds.

 

[HellasLEAF]

The issue with that is our 1A is injury prone and inconsistent

Sounds good in theory. Leafs can't afford a 1B though. Injury prone was a tag placed on Campbell turns out he stayed pretty healthy for TML. Why can't Kallgren be a 1B he played well as a rookie. I would wonder what cap hit a 1B would come in at though..

 

[jgs]

Dumb*** should have traded for Talbot. That would have been way better than Muray. Leafs have plenty of good young players they could have included in the trade and not affect their line up.

 

[smitty10]

Something that has nothing to do with you makes you mad?

Wow, great post!!!

 

[Chief Leaf]

Dubas can do no wrong.

People do not understand Dubas' superior intellect

Developing a tender and building out from the net is the old way

Hard nosed players and hard nosed play style doesn't translate into Cups anymore

The organization is the best funded and has the smartest minds in the business

Our D core is totally fine, guys like Barrie are needed in NuHockey

The fans run players out of town

Our cap situation is fine, you're just not smart enough to understand what Dubas is doing

Trading picks for support players while we have Matthews is a no brainer

2x Champion Murray was a 200 IQ get by Dubas





I could add 20-30 more stupid beliefs that Dubas homers hold dear to them.

Ahh yes he can, he is human afterall, but he tries, he4 has heart, he sticks to HIS plan, and I guess that counts.

Having a reliable tender that gets his groove on is timing. See ottentinger or Price last year. Taking on an often injured one while giving up on others may not be the best approach but the whole scenario of tenders so far have not been revealed for our maple leafs so we have to wait and see what the tandem? brings?

Hard nose players are totally welcome in my books. Soft players lose battles and having both types of players are for me an asset and a team once again looks more rounded out.



IMO it is still okay to try and slow your opponent or the game down to introduce different levels/spectrums.

Best funded? That may seem like it tries to buy the best but they are also (oh oh) looking kinda politically correct at the same time and does that really mean it is the best?

Uhmm not nescassarily- Our D core is still not completed pen to paper and imo,..If we do not have at least 1 hard hitter that is willing to go all out and sometimes hit the opponent coming in for our blue line ( a guy like Zadorov) then we are trending in one direction with fast puck moving players that have forward motion thinking.
The fans are demanding. The spotlight in T.O is bright. If the fans run players out,..why don't they always listen to who the fans want in?

We better have support players along with Matthews. Support players come in many packages not like the way you were trying to contradict things earlier on by stating hard nose players are not needed kinda thing. Pretty sure Matthews respects those types of support players.

200 IQ or desperate? Look man, I now have to cheer on Murray and hope he is the guy!
I do think that they went out and looked for someone else rather than re-signing Campbell for what ever reasons they have be it his head space or wanting too much or just siliently wanting out ..... but the writing was on the wall with the long time hiring of Murrays long time goalie coach. So,..it was to become even before Samsonov appeared before the Murray signing.
Dubas is really at the "trust or bust " moment and again as a fan of the team I can only hope it works out.

I guess the moral to the story is that Dubas has balls,..and layed them on the line.

 

[rocketman588]

Sounds good in theory. Leafs can't afford a 1B though. Injury prone was a tag placed on Campbell turns out he stayed pretty healthy for TML. Why can't Kallgren be a 1B he played well as a rookie. I would wonder what cap hit a 1B would come in at though..

Honestly my opinion was that Campbell and woll or Kallgren would have been fine. But oh well ship has sailed

 

[Bomber0104]

Dumb*** should have traded for Talbot. That would have been way better than Muray. Leafs have plenty of good young players they could have included in the trade and not affect their line up.

There's no indication that Talbot was even available to the Leafs, to be fair.

If he was I'm sure Dubas would have been in on it and called it a day right then and there with a trade, seeing as Talbot has been the better goalie in recent years, more reliable health-wise, and a cheaper option than Matt Murray.

 

[Cleetus]

Matt Murray will be dominant! Bounce Back!

 

[Tak7]

When you did this thought exercise I suspect you kind of felt like you were backed into a corner..

Agree completely on the retention. The difference was critical: a 75% maneuver meant being able to protect the downside. At 25%, that goes out the window, and we're just playing roulette with worse odds.

Which is why I said yesterday, that this feels like a very non-Dubas type of trade, on two fronts:

1 - He always talks about using time to his advantage to promote patience. "If you have time, use it". Yet he panicked, instead of waiting for free agency & seeing if anything shook lose - with Murray's NTC, and Ottawa happily talking to 2 divisional rivals to try and get rid of him + retention, it speaks to how desperate they were to move him. It's not like Murray was about to get moved somewhere else & the Leafs had to act.

2 - It lacks any sort of creativity that Dubas has occasionally shown when making deals. Not only is the 25% retention a bit of a slap, but no third team to further buffer some cap savings, is really surprising to me. As you mentioned, a smaller cap hit mitigates some of the risk, but it also gives you more space to acquire a better backup tomorrow - something you'll now have to do through the bargain bin, because Murray isn't starting more than 50 games even if he's healthy & playing well.

 

[Egghead1999]

Dumb*** should have traded for Talbot. That would have been way better than Muray. Leafs have plenty of good young players they could have included in the trade and not affect their line up.

Talbot is 35 and Murray is 28. Don't believe it is a good idea. We will see who is #2 first before we say this is a dumb trade.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Matt Murray will be dominant! Bounce Back!

All jokes and memes aside...we need this to be the case as fans of the team. whether we mostly if not all but hate this trade lmao

 

[Tak7]

Dumb*** should have traded for Talbot. That would have been way better than Muray. Leafs have plenty of good young players they could have included in the trade and not affect their line up.

Talbot is 35.
Talbot lost his job to a 37 year old.
Talbot cost a good goalie prospect.

 

[Bomber0104]

Talbot is 35.
Talbot lost his job to a 37 year old.
Talbot cost a good goalie prospect.

You'll have a hard time convincing anyone that a negative asset should be viewed better than a positive asset if that's what you're trying to do here.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

Next, but whoever wants him will have to extend him, I mean it's good to have confidence in yourself but he thought he was worth 12m before he put his name on the Hart Trophy. What do you think he and his agent think he's worth now?

It is huge especially if we're talking 16 and change per, which is where his head is probably at

Who is going to have the cap space to match if the Leafs give him a $3 million raise on the AAV? I mean that to match that contract in UFA, it would have to be in excess of $17 million over 7 years.

Which contender will have that cap space?

Kings.

Kopitar contract is over.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the max contract 14 M/per AAV.

I think this is a moot point as 34 will get 14M per easily from us

Edit: A max contract is 20% of the current salary cap, or 16.5 M

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[LeafEgo]

Which is why I said yesterday, that this feels like a very non-Dubas type of trade, on two fronts:

1 - He always talks about using time to his advantage to promote patience. "If you have time, use it". Yet he panicked, instead of waiting for free agency & seeing if anything shook lose - with Murray's NTC, and Ottawa happily talking to 2 divisional rivals to try and get rid of him + retention, it speaks to how desperate they were to move him. It's not like Murray was about to get moved somewhere else & the Leafs had to act.

2 - It lacks any sort of creativity that Dubas has occasionally shown when making deals. Not only is the 25% retention a bit of a slap, but no third team to further buffer some cap savings, is really surprising to me. As you mentioned, a smaller cap hit mitigates some of the risk, but it also gives you more space to acquire a better backup tomorrow - something you'll now have to do through the bargain bin, because Murray isn't starting more than 50 games even if he's healthy & playing well.

Yeah, that's what I meant by protect the downside. That difference in retention virtually eliminates appropriate G backup insurance if Murray goes south.

We could free up cap moving other pieces but at that point we're dressing Marlies.

 

[Tak7]

You'll have a hard time convincing anyone that a negative asset should be viewed better than a positive asset if that's what you're trying to do here.

Moreso pointing out that the Leafs don't have a Gustavsson

 

[A1LeafNation]

There's no indication that Talbot was even available to the Leafs, to be fair.

If he was I'm sure Dubas would have been in on it and called it a day right then and there with a trade, seeing as Talbot has been the better goalie in recent years, more reliable health-wise, and a cheaper option than Matt Murray.

Guerin was talking to Dubas at the draft right after he signed Fleury.

Guerin was looking to unload him and Dubas made it pretty clear he knew what was going on with each available goalie.

It should be pretty clear Murray was their target because they didn't want to spend cap/term on Keumper and Campbell.

 

[Bomber0104]

Guerin was talking to Dubas at the draft right after he signed Fleury.

Guerin was looking to unload him and Dubas made it pretty clear he knew what was going on with each available goalie.

It should be pretty clear Murray was their target because they didn't want to spend cap/term on Keumper and Campbell.

There definitely isn't / wasn't a stomach to outbid all teams for either Kuemper/Campbell.

I'm just not convinced Guerin wanted to trade Talbot to the Leafs.

Based on the relationship deterioration between team and player I wouldn't be surprised if Guerin got selective of where he sent Talbot.

 

[BertCorbeau]

There definitely isn't / wasn't a stomach to outbid all teams for either Kuemper/Campbell.

I'm not convinced Guerin wanted to trade Talbot to the Leafs. Based on the relationship deterioration between team and player I wouldn't be surprised if Guerin got selective of where he sent Talbot.

This wouldn't surprised me at all either.

 

[colchar]

There's no indication that Talbot was even available to the Leafs, to be fair.

If he was I'm sure Dubas would have been in on it and called it a day right then and there with a trade, seeing as Talbot has been the better goalie in recent years, more reliable health-wise, and a cheaper option than Matt Murray.

I think he would still have gone for the goalie he knew.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think you also have to keep in mind the cap situation that Minny is in .. they have $12.7 million in pure dead cap alone this year.

Guerin was able clear $3 mill in cap space without spending any assets. They now have over $4 mill in cap space to find a goalie who an split time.

The fact that he was able to move Talbot, who evidently didn't want to be in a time share situation, without having to pay an assets is a great move.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Those very same words could be used to describe Campbell and Kuemper. Both have missed multiple game stretches multiple times in their careers (even last season), and that concern would only be magnified going forward on contracts with the terms they will be receiving (rumored to be 5 years minimum).

The Leafs meanwhile, get a goalie who was .915 going into his final start of the season, a 3rd, and a 7th for $4.69 million in cap space for only 2 season.

People seem to have this bizarre impression that this will be the only goalie acquisition. Having mentioned that both current 'backup' goalies are both waiver exempt, this would seem to suggest that another move for a G is coming.


And don't get me wrong, I do not like this deal at all - because it let Ottawa off the hook. But realistically the overwhelmingly negative response is mostly rooted in disappointment based on the reported return for Buffalo - which we don't really know the full scope of the reported deal.

But at the end of the day, it's like finding a $5 bill on the ground and complaining that it's not a $20.

Murray wasn't even healthy enough for a buyout evidently so I do think it was a bit of a different situation to a guy like Kuemper.

I figured they will add a backup who play in a tandem incase Murray misses time. Hopefully the plan isn't Kalgren/Woll as a backup.

The Buffalo trade rumor is definitely playing a huge part as im sure you saw all the hype in the return leading up to the trade. Definitely makes it worse in my eyes even if subconsciously.

I would say alot depends on how you view Murray, I think it is a huge risk but see why they see potential. I had Murray in a pretty deep hockey pool so was aware of some great periods of play

 

[TheGreatOne11]

All jokes and memes aside...we need this to be the case as fans of the team. whether we mostly if not all but hate this trade lmao

I just find it funny that with all the analytics Dubas has brought in, and all of his supporters backing him up every step of the way...every single Leaf fan sees this for what it is. Desperation.

There is no backing of this as some grand master plan, this is a man who thought he could upgrade over Campbell quite easily this summer and saw all the dominos fall down slowly around him so he went with plan D.

Murray was not this mans master plan, expecting a goalie you are literally GIFTED with giving NOTHING back but also RECIEVING picks, is not how you win championships.

His back is against the wall here, he is all in, now there is a scenario Murray bounces back and returns to form, but that is the GAMBLE and nobody can project or expect that much change, its impossible.

Hence why we all hate it, because we can see clear as day this is not a premeditated move to make us better, this wasn't thought out with pure knowledge of the player that he will become the player he was 3 years ago, this is a case of being caught with our pants down and going with option #5.

So we all have a sinking feeling in our guts because we know how quickly this could all go to s*it, i just don't want to hear any Dubas genius takes, if this works its luck and nothing but, not some grand 5D chest move.

For all of our sakes I hope it does work out, truly I do, and I can see it working out. But nothing about this is mastery of a well thought out game plan.

It's a gamble on our entire year and his career.

 

[slozo]

We should have gone for Talbot.

This Leafs management should have been replaced already . . . too many poor decisions, and zero results with a stacked roster.

Nothing much else to say really.