Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[therealkoho]

That’s totally the wrong way to look at…he could have been had for way less and the risk is high. It’s not impossible that he turns back the clock and wins the leafs a cup but it still doesn’t make it a good bet

It’s like in poker going all in or raising with a bad hand. You might get lucky on the river card and it all works out but it doesn’t make it a good bet. Odds are against you

Exactly how do you get him for "way less'

You do know Ottawas financial situation don't you

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the general analytics community could do well staying out of the goalie lane and let the specialists speak for the position in detail on various subjects related to being a goalie, watching goalies and analyzing goalies.

I don’t play the position but am a fan of it and it’s just very educational to hear goalies talk about the position than to get drawn into the old correlation causation predictive model talk.

Why? The general consensus in the analytics community is that elite goaltending is super rare, so don't spend large amounts of money and/or assets tying up goaltenders who are not elite.

You can prefer to ignore the stats if you want, but its what 95% of the discouse surrounding goaltenders and how they're playing, what their value is is discussed. If its so variant, as the numbers suggest it is (and its not arguable, hence the lack of correlation, which doesn't mean you can't identify a goaltender with pro scouting, only that you can't use save percentage to predict future save percentage), then its relevant.

Ironically there is reason to believe the Leafs picked Murray completely due to the pro scouting aspect of this anyway.

 

[Sypher04]

No way Dubas would have made this trade if his job wasn’t on the line.

Desperation. I hope the board is watching closely.

Not sure that's how I read this situation personally.
This trade to me screams of a GM who feels comfortable enough to take a risk he believes in.
I think desperation looks a lot different tbh. Like throwing whatever contract and term a UFA goalie wants at them.

 

[The Podium]

Dismissing all data except for 'opinions' and 'eye test'.

At least no one can lose an argument by taking objectivity off the table I guess

To be fair, most analytics aren’t all that great at predicting short or long term success of goalies.

In a single year GSAx will paint a pretty good picture of how well a goaltender performs, but it matches pretty well with the eye test most of the time.

 

[jgs]

So dubas is putting all his marbles in on Murray getting the job done. This is why the Leafs never win the Cup. They make really, really stupid decisons. You all bitched about Campbell, well Murray is going to give you alot more to bitch about.

 

[PanniniClaus]

Take a look at a Hockey News article on Murray last year... i bought into the story... watching film, picking up on flaws, healthy mind and a healthy body and look out... Murray will be back. Puff piece as it turned out.

I watched about 50 Sens games with my son and i got to see plenty of Murray, Gustavsson and Forsberg. Murray let in shocking goals almost every game... Forsberg in front of the same team was very very good...the difference was night and day.

Same crap is being said this summer only with the added bonus of the Leafs picking up on something that is not in the numbers. Our analysts have found something. Well they better be right.

I have lots of patience for the management team, coaches and players... we were not far off at all but going from Jack at 5 to Murray at 4.7 is a massive drop off for $300,000. I know the term is an issue but a starting goaltender for 5 mill is a bargain and that is what Campbell is. Murray out of 64 goaltenders in the NHL is well below average.

Boy i hope i am wrong.. Dubas has put his fate in Matt Murray's hands.

 

[Ciao]

Just curious, we’re people actually comfortable giving Campbell 5+ mill x 5 years?

Murray had better stats on a significantly worse team up until the last 2 games of a lost season.

Not to mention Campbell has his own injury concerns.

Why would anyone want to commit that much term to a mediocre goalie?

I understand hating this deal, but I don’t understand everyone who says “couldn’t we have just spent a little more to keep Campbell”

I'm glad the Leafs let Campbell walk.

I would much rather they do that than sign him long-term with a high AAV.

This is a short-term deal. That is much better.

i was told last summer Pistol Pete's playing style suited our defensive structure , lol

Murray sucks and has sucked for years that's why Pitt dumped him .

From what I hear, the regular season means nothing.

Murray is a proven playoff performer with the rings to prove it.

That's all that counts, isn't it?

That's why Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe, Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen, Campbell, Muzzin and all the other Leaf players, managers, coaches, training staff, ticket sellers and ushers are such utter failures, isn't it?

Here, now you have your proven two-time Stanley Cup champion between the pipes. What else do you want?

Enjoy!

 

[PromisedLand]

Someone do a wellness check on Zeke, a deity died today.

the expected BS/60 stats incoming in 3....2....1.....

 

[STL fan in MN]

I'm not a fan of this trade but I do find one of the funniest things in any sports related discussion are comments like these. Just pull a random % out of nowhere LOL.

Well, first off, it was a joke so lighten up, Francis. Secondly, I said “IMO”. ie. of course the 90% figure is made up. It’s my opinion, not based on irrefutable math and facts.

 

[thewave]

Not sure that's how I read this situation personally.
This trade to me screams of a GM who feels comfortable enough to take a risk he believes in.
I think desperation looks a lot different tbh. Like throwing whatever contract and term a UFA goalie wants at them.

This is the move you make when you are about to TANK NATION.

 

[Leafsfan74]

I'm as emotional as anyone when I see some dirty hits, lazy play, crooked reffing etc. I might suggest we all take a breath and let the off season process take shape.

If I am honest, I felt last year that the loss of Hyman and the largely unspectacular additions that the Leafs might not make the playoffs. Who else feared the same?

Leafs only finished with record points and if not for interesting reffing, they beat the Cup champs.

If Murray is healthy and resilient he will thrive in front of a far better defense. TEAM defense (meaning forwards too) is more than half of the battle in preventing goals.

He just has to remain healthy, focused and steady. Make the odd game changing save. Ottawas D is not on par.

 

[The Podium]

Take a look at a Hockey News article on Murray last year... i bought into the story... watching film, picking up on flaws, healthy mind and a healthy body and look out... Murray will be back. Puff piece as it turned out.

I watched about 50 Sens games with my son and i got to see plenty of Murray, Gustavsson and Forsberg. Murray let in shocking goals almost every game... Forsberg in front of the same team was very very good...the difference was night and day.

Same crap is being said this summer only with the added bonus of the Leafs picking up on something that is not in the numbers. Our analysts have found something. Well they better be right.

I have lots of patience for the management team, coaches and players... we were not far off at all but going from Jack at 5 to Murray at 4.7 is a massive drop off for $300,000. I know the term is an issue but a starting goaltender for 5 mill is a bargain and that is what Campbell is. Murray out of 64 goaltenders in the NHL is well below average.

Boy i hope i am wrong.. Dubas has put his fate in Matt Murray's hands.

Campbell definitely hasn’t proven himself to be a starting goaltender, at least not enough to commit that term at that dollar.

He was also a career backup and largely a failure relative to expectations before coming to Toronto. They saw something in him that seemed to work…. Kind of. Not to mention he was the same age as Murray is currently.

 

[Leaf4Life79]

Why......

 

[ToneDog]

Haven't gone through the 34 pages but can somebody explain the logic of this move ?? A lousy 3rd and a nothing 7th and only 25% retention? What happened to to the significant add ??

 

[Dayjobdave]

I think Murray can bounce back, and if he does, I’m more confident with him in net than Jack in the playoffs. Anything can happen. Definitely a bold move by Dubas. I thought we would get Murray at 50% retained. But I’ll rally and root for the kid.

 

[DueDiligence]

Awful deal, probably one of the worst ones he’s made since becoming GM.

Murray, the goalie who has been shit for 2 years and hasn’t played is the goalie he’s willing to fall on the sword for. Unbelievable

Well at least the Leafs got that 7th round sweetner!

 

[rojac]

You said exactly what I'm thinking. I've also historically been a Dubas apologist/supporter. Easily won the Mrazek trade and looks like a bigger loss here. I'd have preferred matching 5x5 on Campbell (and I don't like that one either) than taking this goalie.

Unless the future considerations is something after free agency and they wanted a bonus to be paid first .... This doesn't make sense to me.

The future considerations are coming from Toronto, So if the Leafs were giving up a roster player, the deal would be worse not better unless the Leafs were sending the Sens a player that they felt they couldn’t move without a sweetener and I don‘t think the Leafs have any contracts like that (excluding Murray, of course).

Also, I was under the impression that signing bonuses were still paid on July 1, even when the start of free Agency was delayed past that.

 

[Mess]

There is a silver lining here and that is Leafs draft pick future took a turn in the right direction.

The Leafs had traded Nick Ritchie away with their 3rd in 2023, and they gave away their 7th next year to acquire Jared McCann before losing him in expansion,

This Murray trade essentially recovers those 2 previously lost draft picks allowing Leafs to break-even on those transactions as if they never occurred, with a 3rd and 7th returning to the fold as part of the salary retention on this deal. .

 

[leafsfan5]

Time for some copium

Maybe he bounces back behind a competent defense?? He wasn't awful last year outside the final 2 games, so maybe that's what they see???

I don't know. We've put our season in the hands of Matt Murray. Surely they see something????

 

[CelticDruid]

'Coming in peace' lol get a life.

'Coming in peace' That's how all the Scifi movies start and the next thing you know they’re all blasting ray guns everywhere.

 

[rojac]

Well at least the Leafs got that 7th round sweetner!

Is there a reason you’re not including the 3rd?

 

[Stephen]

Dismissing all data except for 'opinions' and 'eye test'.

At least no one can lose an argument by taking objectivity off the table I guess

Well, there are specific ex-pro goalie led analytics like Clear Sight by Stephen Valiquette’s group and goalie communities like Kevin Woodley’s InGoal radio that deep dive on the minutia of the goalie position, talk shop and interview pros, nerd out on equipment.

So if one was truly interested in learning more about goalies with so much good content out there, why do we need generalists who call it voodoo because Cam Charron doesn’t get it?

 

[Akrapovince]

He had a 6 week stretch in Ottawa where he played absolutely stellar hockey. You can win a cup in 6 weeks getting the goaltending he gave us.

Maybe the value was off a bit for you guys, but with better defensive forwards, better defensemen and more scoring support, Murray has as good as a chance as any other goaltender in the league of getting hot at the right time.

I said this on the main boards but I’ll say it again. Sometimes, you can get a 40+ year old Mike Smith that plays like Kuemper should and sometimes you get a Kuemper playing the way a 40+ year old Mike Smith should. It’s always going to be a gamble, and gambling on Murray getting hot is as good as a gamble as most.

I’ll go as far as saying it really doesn’t matter who you have in net unless you have a Helle, Vasi or Shesterkin in between the pipes.

It doesn’t matter whether it’s Kuemper, Campbell, Raanta, Saros, Grubauer, Freddie, Samsonov, any of these mid-level goalies can collapse in the playoffs and any of these goalies can get hot. Same with Matt Murray, except he has two Stanley cups on his resume.

I don’t know, just have some faith. The trade is done, the value is what it is, I’m confident Murray will be revitalized in Toronto with the team they have in front of him.

 

[ToneDog]

If Murray sucks we may not have to wait for our annual first round loss for Dufus to be fired.

Is it possible the Galaxy brain was outmaneuvered by Pierre f'n Dorion ??

 

[keonsbitterness]

Haven't gone through the 34 pages but can somebody explain the logic of this move ?? A lousy 3rd and a nothing 7th and only 25% retention? What happened to to the significant add ??

Dubas received a new dining room table.