Top and bottom 15 Dman who have played at least 50 minutes 5on5 in relative xGF% for October

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Top 15:

Bottom 15:

Click to read more...

 

[Jacob]

Not a single Penguin in the bottom 15 is surprising.

 

[Regal]

Not a single Penguin in the bottom 15 is surprising.

It’s all relative to each other so poop relative to crap isn’t half bad

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

How is TJ Brodie not in the bottom 15?

 

[Regal]

Numbers this early can be pretty wonky, but Soucy’s numbers are backed by the eye test. Such a weird regression after being really good for most of last year. He looks like he went from 29 to 37 in one offseason.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Logan Mailloux's rating certainly tracks with the eye test. Looked like a hot mess out there.

 

[mphmiles]

York has really come along the last couple seasons and the Flyers miss him terribly right now.

 

[Breakers]

I have been hating on Tyler Myers longer than anybody in the history of Hfboards

and its going to continue
We complain for 3 years about getting this guy off the roster, can't trade him because of his frigan delay signing bonus

then we re-sign him which is one the 7 mysteries of the world

Hughes is self explanatory.

 

[NyQuil]

JBD second in the league is pretty funny.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

JBD second in the league is pretty funny.

Well its relative and he's done very well against weaker opponents.

 

[Regal]

I have been hating on Tyler Myers longer than anybody in the history of Hfboards

and its going to continue
We complain for 3 years about getting this guy off the roster, can't trade him because of his frigan delay signing bonus

then we re-sign him which is one the 7 mysteries of the world

Hughes is self explanatory.

Yea I hated the signing and it looks even worse now. Even playing like last year he shouldn’t be in the top 4 but the team’s cap situation doesn’t allow them the room to have him on the bottom pair

 

[tarheelhockey]

These ratings seem pretty heavily attached to offensive-oriented players who are producing early, and against defensive-oriented players who get shelled.

 

[WatchfulElm]

Justin Barron in the top 15 doesn't match the eye test at all. He hasn’t been bad, but "average" would describe it well. Certainly not top 15 in the NHL, not even close.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Yea I hated the signing and it looks even worse now. Even playing like last year he shouldn’t be in the top 4 but the team’s cap situation doesn’t allow them the room to have him on the bottom pair

Why did they even bother to sign him?

 

[Regal]

Why did they even bother to sign him?

Apparently he’s very well liked by the organization and teammates.

 

[bossram]

Justin Barron in the top 15 doesn't match the eye test at all. He hasn’t been bad, but "average" would describe it well. Certainly not top 15 in the NHL, not even close.

It's relative to teammates. The team is a trainwreck defensively, so looking "average" is actually pretty good.

These ratings seem pretty heavily attached to offensive-oriented players who are producing early, and against defensive-oriented players who get shelled.

Ideally your defensive guys...don't get shelled. Otherwise, what are they defending?

Gavrikov and K'Andre Miller are on the top part of the chart. They play toughs.

 

[Breakers]

Why did they even bother to sign him?

recency bias

they ignore the years and years of every defenseman who plays with him struggling,
he gets caved in every year

but....... we made the playoffs last year

 

[MS]

These ratings seem pretty heavily attached to offensive-oriented players who are producing early, and against defensive-oriented players who get shelled.

This is the central problem with advanced stats that nobody has been able to adequately solve for yet.

 

[dgibb10]

change the title if you're using relative numbers.

Top 25 in xGoals share

Bottom 25

 

[justHypnos]

It's relative to teammates. The team is a trainwreck defensively, so looking "average" is actually pretty good.


Ideally your defensive guys...don't get shelled. Otherwise, what are they defending?

Gavrikov and K'Andre Miller are on the top part of the chart. They play toughs.

Offensive players generally will be used in more offensive situations even in 5v5 while defensive players, especially those paired with another defensive player, are sometimes almost reserved for the defensive zone minutes. This stat is heavily slanted towards those who don’t see the defensive zone.
Miller plays with Fox, Pettersson plays with Karlsson, and Walker plays with Gostisbehere, according to daily faceoff.

 

[dgibb10]

For context, this is why luke hughes and brett pesce are so low. They're above 50%, the problem is in the 4 games since they got back, Kovacevic, Hamilton, Dillon, and Hamilton have legitimately put belt to ass on the teams we've played

 

[tarheelhockey]

Ideally your defensive guys...don't get shelled. Otherwise, what are they defending?

Nothing wrong with rating them low, but we’re missing the other corners of the graph — defensive players who play really well, and offensive defensemen who are not producing.

Basically, god help a low-offense shutdown guy who ends up on a bad team or just in front of a bad goalie. He’ll be rated miles worse than a third pairing offensive specialist who isn’t producing but is on a good enough team that his GF/GA breaks even.

 

[dgibb10]

Nothing wrong with rating them low, but we’re missing the other corners of the graph — defensive players who play really well, and offensive defensemen who are not producing.

Basically, god help a low-offense shutdown guy who ends up on a bad team or just in front of a bad goalie. He’ll be rated miles worse than a third pairing offensive specialist who isn’t producing but is on a good enough team that his GF/GA breaks even.

You don't understand how this stat works.

It's in comparison to the other dman on your team.

It favours guys who are used offensively, and guys who play on teams where the other pairings suck ass.

It punishes guys where the other pairings are elite (see Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce, who are both above 50% xgoals share), but since the rest of NJD has been a dominant 67% in the 4 games since they've been back, they have bad relative numbers

 

[BKarchitect]

Here’s a list of 15 hockey players that play the position of defense.

Here’s another list of 15 different hockey players that also play the position of defense.

 

[bossram]

Offensive players generally will be used in more offensive situations even in 5v5 while defensive players, especially those paired with another defensive player, are sometimes almost reserved for the defensive zone minutes. This stat is heavily slanted towards those who don’t see the defensive zone.
Miller plays with Fox, Pettersson plays with Karlsson, and Walker plays with Gostisbehere, according to daily faceoff.

Yes, players used largely in pure defensive roles or against tough competition will be at a raw disadvantage by these metrics (there are better ones out there that try to adjust for usage, QoC, and QoT though). I know this and already acknowledged it.

Again though, as I said, there are guys who play tough minutes that are on the positive side of the ledger. K'Andre Miller plays the tough competition with Fox. Gavrikov plays with Anderson and they are the team's shutdown pair.

Good defensive players, even given their deployment, can still rate highly by these metrics. Last season, McDonagh, Alex Vlasic, Gudas, Nick Seeler were all near the top of the league by relative xG. They play the defensive minutes for their teams.

Nothing wrong with rating them low, but we’re missing the other corners of the graph — defensive players who play really well, and offensive defensemen who are not producing.

Basically, god help a low-offense shutdown guy who ends up on a bad team or just in front of a bad goalie. He’ll be rated miles worse than a third pairing offensive specialist who isn’t producing but is on a good enough team that his GF/GA breaks even.

Again, defensive defenseman can outperform their usage - that is what defines an actually good defensive defenseman. If you're a defensive defenseman that's just getting shelled, you're not really doing your job. Ideally your designated shutdown guys can at least break even in tough usage, which basically subsidizes the rest of your team to get softer minutes. If they can't accomplish this, they're not really doing much for you.

I've named several players that do accomplish this.

You wanted the opposite side of the ledger? Last season, Tyson Barrie, Drysdale, and Calen Addison were some of the worst defensemen in the league by relative xG. They are guys that get soft, offensive deployment. Usage isn't going to completely obscure whether a guy is good or not.