Those who wonder why Dubas waited to sign the big 3 now see why with Campbell.

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Maybe Jack asked for that much, maybe not. No way for us to know but if he did ask for that then its not a good sign so hopefully that's not what happened.

Very true! I trust Dubas, so if Jack's ask was 4Mx4 years, or within a reasonable fair value, I think there's a strong chance the deal would've been done. You're right, no use guessing what might have been discussed.

 

[Bluelines]

Difference is unless you want Mrazek as your starter, it makes no sense not to have a starter signed.

Campbell signing before the season is still cheaper than Campbell today. Do you want Mrazek as our starter for the next 2 years? If not, you're going to have to pay him more when he's a UFA and free to field offers.

I think that ship sailed when we signed a UFA goalie to a $3.8 mil / 3 year contract and Rielly to an extension. To me it was evident once we signed Mrzaek we were not signing Campbell. My speculation is Dubas talked to Campbells team in the summer, the terms he heard were too high, so he signed Petr knowing he could not afford Jack.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Need to get legit goalie

 

[hullsy47]

the whole panic over a big Campbell contract was invented whole cloth by the media.

there's no way Dubas was going to give him 6 million because Jack started the season hot. and yes, the last month or two we've seen why that is.

having said that, I'm not sure there's much comparison between him and the other guys contracts.

Campbell has a long way to go still to establish himself as a reliable starter here.

oops like they are willing to give woll 25 games a year at some point
Campbell is a tandem goalie .as most goalies are now
50-30 splits will be the norm .

 

[rocketman588]

Very true! I trust Dubas, so if Jack's ask was 4Mx4 years, or within a reasonable fair value, I think there's a strong chance the deal would've been done. You're right, no use guessing what might have been discussed.

 

[34]

Yeah, Campbell is just not good. Trade him or let him walk.

 

[marquee]

Massively regressed? What an embarrassing thread, no goalie even the elite ones have .920+ save %’s every month.

his play hasn’t dropped off but his rhythm has as he’s played 16 games since early December. Jack is getting paid this off season as he get on himself.

 

[Confucius]

Yeah, Campbell is just not good. Trade him or let him walk.

maybe he can improve on his .958 s% over the past 2 games. Lets give him one more chance.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

Flawed logic

 

[hullsy47]

Very true! I trust Dubas, so if Jack's ask was 4Mx4 years, or within a reasonable fair value, I think there's a strong chance the deal would've been done. You're right, no use guessing what might have been discussed.

This giving up goals on the first shot of the game has to fing stop

 

[Stephen]

I think where I struggle is, if this summer Jack asked for 5Mx5 years, we are taking him to age 35. We signed that same contract to Freddie Andersen when he was 27 I believe. Freddie had more NHL games played and more impressive numbers at the time of signing compared to Jack this summer.

I have a hard time coming up with a case to not re-sign Campbell this summer, but this is my best Dubas defense. Maybe Dubas is worried about injuries/cold streaks/age, and he thinks Jack's ask this summer won't be that different from last summer. And this time, we'll have Jack's first full season as a starter where we can walk away if they don't like what they see.

I'm not really sure I want to invest 4-5 years on Jack Campbell to find out he's essentially a James Reimer level goalie who can run hot and cold and struggle to give you 45 consistent games a year, withholding judgement on playoffs. He's a great person, has had some unbelievable stretches but when flexibility is so valuable in a flat cap world, I'm just not sure.

 

[Jmo89]

I mean it completely blew up in his face twice not to mention losing many UFAs for nothing. So weird flex.

Campbell also isn't a top prospect on an entry level deal.

I agree, the comparison doesn't make alot of sense. Goalies are alot more volatile than young scoring stars on ELCs.

One of Marner or Matthews should have been signed early so that they couldn't use the other as a comparable. It's very likely they could have signed Matthews to an 8 year "overpay" for less than what he got on 5.

Or you sign Marner first to the reported money and term, get him longer and for less, and maybe squeeze Matthews a bit more.

Dubas chose the worst possible option in waiting to sign Marner last while signing Matthews during the season for a 5 year term.

Contracts aren't what's holding the team back though. It's not a depth problem in the playoffs, it's the stars shrinking in big moments.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Massively regressed? What an embarrassing thread, no goalie even the elite ones have .920+ save %’s every month.

his play hasn’t dropped off but his rhythm has as he’s played 16 games since early December. Jack is getting paid this off season as he get on himself.

Elite goalies also don't have months where they are the worst starting goalie in the league, which is pretty much what has defined Campbell in January and February.

Quite frankly, I would rather have a consistent .915 Campbell right now than an inconsistent .920. We would have won more games.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Campbell is a risk no doubt about it. And we know he gets in his own head. That said you gotta run with these guys - but I can also understand some wanting MAF

 

[dubey]

 

[zeke]

Elite goalies also don't have months where they are the worst starting goalie in the league, which is pretty much what has defined Campbell in January and February.

Quite frankly, I would rather have a consistent .915 Campbell right now than an inconsistent .920. We would have won more games.

True you're not going to win a vezina in a year where you go 13gms with a .894 as Jack has done in jan/Feb.....but plenty of good goalies have streaks like that.

Leafs are 9-3-1 in those 13gms, btw.

 

[Shooter2x]

In a stretch where it's hard to tell if he's "back" when he has a good game, or if he's still mediocre and just having a good game like how a Vejmelka kicks our ass sometimes.

 

[Byron Bitz]

In fairness Dubas wasn't GM until the summer of 2018 so he couldn't re-sign Nylander during the the previous season.

I don't think many are arguing the Matthews AAV .. but the Matthews AAV at that term was more of the concern, especially after he was fairly proven

And waiting on Marner was his biggest miss. It was a natural assumption he would put up points when Tavares signed, so waiting until that season played out put Marner's value at its peak. Plus the rumours of Marner's dad and the Babcock thing. Maybe that's why Marner wouldn't sign the season before or he wanted to gamble on JT joining the team and boosting his production. Hindsight it 20/20 though.

As it stands Matthews' is fair. Marner's is an overpay (but not grossly, he's still a damn elite player), and Nylander is a bargain.

So it's all kind of washed out.

Marner was obviously overpaid we all know that but also the five year deal has never sat well with me for Matthews. I hate how we can possibly lose him for nothing in two years. Buffalo and Edmonton were able to get their guys signed for 8 years so I don’t see why we couldn’t.

 

[Stephen]

What about Ville Husso? We saw him up close and personal last night and he seems to play a technically quiet game with your standard athleticism mixed in. Was a highly touted prospect out of Finland, overbaked in the St. Louis system and has stolen Jordan Binnington's job. Obviously he has less track record than Campbell, but he's a little younger and could be worth it as an alternate.

 

[Eye Test]

Give him the Mrazek deal? Or is that way to much for a tandem with our cap?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Give him the Mrazek deal? Or is that way to much for a tandem with our cap?

8 mill is not too much for a tandem, even for us. We can afford something in the 4 mill neighbourhood. I wouldn't pay much more than that though.

 

[PromisedLand]

You've got to be kidding me comparing the three amigos and their situation to Campbell. Come on now

 

[Confucius]

I'm not really sure I want to invest 4-5 years on Jack Campbell to find out he's essentially a James Reimer level goalie who can run hot and cold and struggle to give you 45 consistent games a year, withholding judgement on playoffs. He's a great person, has had some unbelievable stretches but when flexibility is so valuable in a flat cap world, I'm just not sure.

It all depends on how much he wants per year, doesn't it?

 

[Stephen]

It all depends on how much he wants per year, doesn't it?

That too, but do we actually want him for 4 or 5 more seasons? That would make his Leafs tenure longer than Freddie's, and the inconsistent play, lack of established track record and age kind of scare me.

 

[Dave92]

I agree, the comparison doesn't make alot of sense. Goalies are alot more volatile than young scoring stars on ELCs.

One of Marner or Matthews should have been signed early so that they couldn't use the other as a comparable. It's very likely they could have signed Matthews to an 8 year "overpay" for less than what he got on 5.

Or you sign Marner first to the reported money and term, get him longer and for less, and maybe squeeze Matthews a bit more.

Dubas chose the worst possible option in waiting to sign Marner last while signing Matthews during the season for a 5 year term.

Contracts aren't what's holding the team back though. It's not a depth problem in the playoffs, it's the stars shrinking in big moments.

Yep at this point it fells like there's nothing you can add that will improve their first round odds in a meaningful way, eventually the Stars just have to get it done or be broken up. The Canadiens were arguably the worst team they've faced in the playoffs since the 80's? And still nothing.