Those who wonder why Dubas waited to sign the big 3 now see why with Campbell.

[HockeyVirus]

So many love to say "Why did Dubas wait, he could have had Marner / Matthews for x at y a year before!". Well, because he didn't know for sure if they were legit superstars are players like Elias Pettersson who have stagnated after an elite 1.5 seasons.

Many on here called for Dubas to sign Campbell in the offseason and early season. The longer he waited the higher the price went. Well Campbell's numbers have massively regressed, and he is having a rough time right now. Chances are he is going to get a deal closer to Mrazek than Freddy whereas a few months back, it was the opposite.

You win some you lose some. Just remember the biggest lesson Dubas said he learned from Lou was "if you have time, use it".

Click to read more...

 

[Martin Skoula]

Just because a saying sounds profound doesn't mean it's good advice. Sometimes waiting works sometimes it doesn't.

But yeah giving Campbell a retirement deal when he hasn't had a starter's schedule in his career was an insane suggestion. Risking paying him 1-2 mil more AAV after a Vezina is meh upside, having an injured erratic backup goalie on a 5x5 w/NMC is a potentially window closing downside.

 

[Jozay]

Comparing Nylander, Matthews and Marner to Campbell makes no sense

 

[Divine]

Difference is unless you want Mrazek as your starter, it makes no sense not to have a starter signed.

Campbell signing before the season is still cheaper than Campbell today. Do you want Mrazek as our starter for the next 2 years? If not, you're going to have to pay him more when he's a UFA and free to field offers.

 

[trellaine201]

I would guess Campbell is better suited to be a number 2 goalie. It’s really hard to find good goalies. Look at us lol year after year looking for one.

 

[Dave92]

I mean it completely blew up in his face twice not to mention losing many UFAs for nothing. So weird flex.

Campbell also isn't a top prospect on an entry level deal.

 

[Buds17]

I'm not certain of this being an apples to apples comparison. Campbell is older than the Big 3 were at the time and will be eligible for UFA if left unsigned. Mrazek's stock to the team will also have to increase to coincide with this dip in Campbell's play.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Matthews contract is well worth it.

Dubas' problem is that he didn't strongarm Marner like he did with Nylander.

Marner sitting out would have done nothing for him. The team did nothing that year.

I wouldn't mind Leafs signing Husso.

 

[BertCorbeau]

In fairness Dubas wasn't GM until the summer of 2018 so he couldn't re-sign Nylander during the the previous season.

I don't think many are arguing the Matthews AAV .. but the Matthews AAV at that term was more of the concern, especially after he was fairly proven

And waiting on Marner was his biggest miss. It was a natural assumption he would put up points when Tavares signed, so waiting until that season played out put Marner's value at its peak. Plus the rumours of Marner's dad and the Babcock thing. Maybe that's why Marner wouldn't sign the season before or he wanted to gamble on JT joining the team and boosting his production. Hindsight it 20/20 though.

As it stands Matthews' is fair. Marner's is an overpay (but not grossly, he's still a damn elite player), and Nylander is a bargain.

So it's all kind of washed out.

 

[mydnyte]

So many love to say "Why did Dubas wait, he could have had Marner / Matthews for x at y a year before!". Well, because he didn't know for sure if they were legit superstars are players like Elias Pettersson who have stagnated after an elite 1.5 seasons.

Many on here called for Dubas to sign Campbell in the offseason and early season. The longer he waited the higher the price went. Well Campbell's numbers have massively regressed, and he is having a rough time right now. Chances are he is going to get a deal closer to Mrazek than Freddy whereas a few months back, it was the opposite.

You win some you lose some. Just remember the biggest lesson Dubas said he learned from Lou was "if you have time, use it".

he didnt sign them mostly, because their agents wouldnt let them sign early. standard practice to increase value, agent are commission based after all.

 

[TGB]

That's why they signed Mrazek. It gave them room to wait.

And you should always wait to the end of the season before resigning a player. How many times now have we seen a huge mid-season resigning backfire on the Leafs?

 

[ACC1224]

So many love to say "Why did Dubas wait, he could have had Marner / Matthews for x at y a year before!". Well, because he didn't know for sure if they were legit superstars are players like Elias Pettersson who have stagnated after an elite 1.5 seasons.

Many on here called for Dubas to sign Campbell in the offseason and early season. The longer he waited the higher the price went. Well Campbell's numbers have massively regressed, and he is having a rough time right now. Chances are he is going to get a deal closer to Mrazek than Freddy whereas a few months back, it was the opposite.

You win some you lose some. Just remember the biggest lesson Dubas said he learned from Lou was "if you have time, use it".

This is a bad take. Re-evaluate and try again.

 

[Shooter2x]

In fairness Dubas wasn't GM until the summer of 2018 so he couldn't re-sign Nylander during the the previous season.

I don't think many are arguing the Matthews AAV .. but the Matthews AAV at that term was more of the concern, especially after he was fairly proven

And waiting on Marner was his biggest miss. It was a natural assumption he would put up points when Tavares signed, so waiting until that season played out put Marner's value at its peak. Plus the rumours of Marner's dad and the Babcock thing. Maybe that's why Marner wouldn't sign the season before or he wanted to gamble on JT joining the team and boosting his production. Hindsight it 20/20 though.

As it stands Matthews' is fair. Marner's is an overpay (but not grossly, he's still a damn elite player), and Nylander is a bargain.

So it's all kind of washed out.

No way Marner signs early knowing he's spending a year beside a center known for getting his wingers paid. Can't blame Dubas on that one either

 

[Twine Tickler]

Chances are the folks who 1.5 months back were complaining about Dubas not resigning Jack long term in the summer would have been the exact same folks who would be complaining right now had Dubas done just that.

It's how things tend to work around here. Hindsight is only afforded to the keyboard warriors of the world

It was always the right call to take Jack into the season with Petr as his running mate. Petr got hurt early on, those folks couldn't wait to say how bad that signing was. Now Jack is having a rough stretch, and that signing is starting to prove why Kyle made it in the first place.

I love Jack as much as anyone, and I still really hope he comes back next year. But he was largely unproven this past offseason. He only played 29 games as the go to guy including playoffs.

I have a ton of confidence in Jack still. He's going to be better from this stretch of poor play. This is his first real stretch of prolonged adversity he has faced. I am confident he will be better because of it.

Tough to completely blame the guy either. We aren't exactly making it easy on him either. Everybody needs to be better, but 100% it starts with Jack.

 

[DarkKnight]

Comparing Nylander, Matthews and Marner to Campbell makes no sense

Yep, the premise is whack.

 

[ACC1224]

No way Marner signs early knowing he's spending a year beside a center known for getting his wingers paid. Can't blame Dubas on that one either

He wanted to but Dubas turned it down.
He then compounded it by signing Matthews first.

 

[deltamachine]

Just because a saying sounds profound doesn't mean it's good advice. Sometimes waiting works sometimes it doesn't.

But yeah giving Campbell a retirement deal when he hasn't had a starter's schedule in his career was an insane suggestion. Risking paying him 1-2 mil more AAV after a Vezina is meh upside, having an injured erratic backup goalie on a 5x5 w/NMC is a potentially window closing downside.

I rather overpay a bit for a sure thing than get stuck with an overvalued dud, the leafs can ill afford to swallow. The upside and downside risk do not offset each other because of the cap situation.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No way Marner signs early knowing he's spending a year beside a center known for getting his wingers paid. Can't blame Dubas on that one either

Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious to everybody that Marner didn't want to sign early. Even putting aside the toxic abuse from Babcock, he was going into a season where he'd finally get real opportunities like other high-end young players get. Marner is also exactly the type of personality to bet on himself, and early extensions is also not how Ferris works at all. He doesn't have a single significant contract that was signed early.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Comparing Nylander, Matthews and Marner to Campbell makes no sense

Yep, the premise is whack.

I'm not I'm comparing them to Pettersson. I am saying he waited because A) Our big three could have fizzled out like Pettersson did instead of blossom and B) our Vezina goalie has turned into a backup in 2 months. Two varying examples showing why waiting is better most of the time.

Only time it doesn't make sense is with someone like Rielly or Matthews, established players solidly in their primes for several more seasons that you just can't replace.

I mean it completely blew up in his face twice not to mention losing many UFAs for nothing. So weird flex.

Campbell also isn't a top prospect on an entry level deal.

Which UFA did he let go that hasn't been a good move? Everyone one has turned into a boat anchor. Only one that didn't was Bozak and by the end of his deal blues fans said he was overpaid for his role. We weren't signing him anyways to be our 4C.

In fairness Dubas wasn't GM until the summer of 2018 so he couldn't re-sign Nylander during the the previous season.

I don't think many are arguing the Matthews AAV .. but the Matthews AAV at that term was more of the concern, especially after he was fairly proven

And waiting on Marner was his biggest miss. It was a natural assumption he would put up points when Tavares signed, so waiting until that season played out put Marner's value at its peak. Plus the rumours of Marner's dad and the Babcock thing. Maybe that's why Marner wouldn't sign the season before or he wanted to gamble on JT joining the team and boosting his production. Hindsight it 20/20 though.

As it stands Matthews' is fair. Marner's is an overpay (but not grossly, he's still a damn elite player), and Nylander is a bargain.

So it's all kind of washed out.

Well the reason why was because Nylander would use Marner as a comparable as he was holding out. If Dubas was trying to get Willy for 6 as rumored, and Marner got 9 (you know he wasn't taking less than that), Nylander likely gets 9 or low 8's at the worst. So really if Dubas did that, people would say he could have had Nylander for 6 had he not signed Marner first and blame him anyways.

In the end, the cap would be the same.

 

[lebdafor norris]

he didnt sign them mostly, because their agents wouldnt let them sign early. standard practice to increase value, agent are commission based after all.

I though the rumor was that Marner wanted a similar contract to Draisaitl during the summer and it was either they sign him for that value or bust, Marner's camp weren't going to budge. Of course at the time, Marner was "only" coming off a 69 point season and everyone here would have agreed that the Drai contract would have been an overpayment.

Actually, come to think of it a lot here believed that Drai himself was overpayed when he signed his contract and that was after coming off a 77 point season, a top 8 finish in the scoring race and a PPG+ performance in the playoffs.

 

[Gallagbi]

The logic that you should always use time is flawed.

Matthews and Marner are not the same as a career backup who (hopefully) broke out around 30.

It's a GMs job to make correct predictions since they're always building forward.

 

[shortfuze]

In fairness Dubas wasn't GM until the summer of 2018 so he couldn't re-sign Nylander during the the previous season.

I don't think many are arguing the Matthews AAV .. but the Matthews AAV at that term was more of the concern, especially after he was fairly proven

And waiting on Marner was his biggest miss. It was a natural assumption he would put up points when Tavares signed, so waiting until that season played out put Marner's value at its peak. Plus the rumours of Marner's dad and the Babcock thing. Maybe that's why Marner wouldn't sign the season before or he wanted to gamble on JT joining the team and boosting his production. Hindsight it 20/20 though.

As it stands Matthews' is fair. Marner's is an overpay (but not grossly, he's still a damn elite player), and Nylander is a bargain.

So it's all kind of washed out.

Pretty sure Marner was willing to sign the year before. 8x8 but Toronto wanted to wait.

 

[Carltons Cup]

So many love to say "Why did Dubas wait, he could have had Marner / Matthews for x at y a year before!". Well, because he didn't know for sure if they were legit superstars are players like Elias Pettersson who have stagnated after an elite 1.5 seasons.

Many on here called for Dubas to sign Campbell in the offseason and early season. The longer he waited the higher the price went. Well Campbell's numbers have massively regressed, and he is having a rough time right now. Chances are he is going to get a deal closer to Mrazek than Freddy whereas a few months back, it was the opposite.

You win some you lose some. Just remember the biggest lesson Dubas said he learned from Lou was "if you have time, use it".

While the jist of your argument is reasonable, the reality is that we are going to still end up paying Soup $5M+ per year.

Unfortunately, if we don't pay Soup closer to his asking price, the probability of some other team overpaying him is likely - especially a team in desperate need of goaltending. Cough, Oilers, cough....

 

[TheShape]

Matthews contract is well worth it.

Dubas' problem is that he didn't strongarm Marner like he did with Nylander.

I kinda get the vibe the Marner deal was pressure from ownership to get it done more so than Dubas, they didn't want another Nylander situation.

There's also the part where both parties have to want to sign early, which I'm not convinced Marner's camp had any desire to do (especially once Matthews signed), and I wouldn't have either in that situation.

 

[Gallagbi]

I kinda get the vibe the Marner deal was pressure from ownership to get it done more so than Dubas, they didn't want another Nylander situation.

There's also the part where both parties have to want to sign early, which I'm not convinced Marner's camp had any desire to do (especially once Matthews signed), and I wouldn't have either in that situation.

Sounded like Marner was willing to sign well before Matthews but not during season