Third Straight Game-Winning Goals & Paul Henderson's Historic Hat Trick.

[PrimumHockeyist]

Since this is my first post on this board I should probably first mention that I am neither a mathematician nor an "analytics" guy in ice hockey's conventional sense. . .

So, a few years ago now, I had been very surprised to learn how rare it is to score a third straight game-winning goal, (over three consecutive games). Career-wise, the most elite NHL players have scored game winning goals in just under ten percent of the games played. At the slightly higher Frequency of ten percent, sucn an elite player can be expected to score a 3rd straight game-winner about once every 1,000 games. This works out to about once every 12.5 seasons of 80 games - with 80 games meant to account for earlier times when NHL played 60 and 70 game seasons. (It should be mentioned that the recent introduction of 3-on-3 overtime will change this frequency significantly.)

Then there's the Significance factor (which has nothing to do with anticipated frequency). A very strong expectation follows when one presumes the null hypothesis (that all goals are governed by chance): On those very rare occasions when they appear, any given third straight game winning goal will very likely have been scored during a relatively insignificant time, since the vast majority of goals and games are relatively ordinary in a given NHL season narrative.

What that expectation in mind, I next turn to what is widely regarded as 'the' most significant goal on Canadian hockey history, or one of a very select few.

In the 3-minute video linked to at the end of this post, Paul Henderson shares his very well known story, regarding a most unusual episode which took place just before he scored his third straight game-winning goal, near the end of the final game of the Soviet-Canada Summit Series of 1972 :

"I had a sense that I could score a goal. I had a sense that a tie was no good. And for one of those reasons that I can't even describe today: I never had done it before. I never did it after that, stood up and actually started yelling at a player to come off the ice..."

Based on his NHL regular season career, Paul Henderson could be expected to score a third straight game winning goal about once every 5,521 games, or about one game every 69 (80-game) seasons.

Given the feat being considered, it may be more appropriate to consider Henderson's entire professional career: his total NHL and WHA regular season and play-offs games. In this case, Paul Henderson could be expected to perform the same feat about once every 15,000 games or 172 seasons.

Either scenario is less likely that being dealt a Four of a Kind poker hand - a once every 4164 kind of thing.

... which says nothing about the gravitas of the card game

The previous link was amended to this, as it became part of a series.

Here's the Henderson clip :

Click to read more...

 

[Hockey Stathead]

Cool analysis.

Could also add that 2 of the 3 GWGs (Games 7 and 8) were the "legit" type where the player scores the final goal in a game to break a tie and have his team win by 1. A player who scores the 2nd goal in a 6-1 win also gets a GWG but it wouldn't be considered as impressive.

Henderson's Game 6 GWG was between those 2 situations listed above. He scored the 3rd goal to go up 3-1 and then the Soviets scored a 2nd goal. His goal was the differentiator in the 3-2 win.

 

[PrimumHockeyist]

Cool analysis.

Thank you.

Could also add that 2 of the 3 GWGs (Games 7 and 8) were the "legit" type where the player scores the final goal in a game to break a tie and have his team win by 1. A player who scores the 2nd goal in a 6-1 win also gets a GWG but it wouldn't be considered as impressive.

Henderson's Game 6 GWG was between those 2 situations listed above. He scored the 3rd goal to go up 3-1 and then the Soviets scored a 2nd goal. His goal was the differentiator in the 3-2 win.

You have very concisely alluded to why fans of Canadian hockey history- even though they can very quickly tell you who scored the 'winning' goals in 72, 87 and 2010 - often can't say who scored the game winning goal at Salt Lake 2002, even though that gold medal game was of comparable cultural importance/magnitude to the other three.

I will follow up soon since, for the sake of keeping things simple, in my initial post I described Paul Henderson's feat short of what it actually is in terms of rarity - something much rarer than a once every 69 to 172 years kind of thing.

 

[PrimumHockeyist]

Apologies, follow up amended and here at original link.