Blue Jays Discussion: The trade deadline has passed. Time to see what this can do (most acquisitions expected to be present Thursday in Minnesota)
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It's not even the prospect ranking.
Bichette is an age 24 All-Star who has been a 5 WAR player/162 for his career and has 4 more years of team control. His value is absolutely massive, moreso than any asset included in the Soto deal.
Also they appear to be conflating the assets that SD paid for Soto AND Bell into a comparison of what Toronto would have had to pay just for Soto.
trellaine201
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The Nemesis
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No he doesn't have to be. he's been really bad. That zero ERA is a mirage of the highest order. Dude's walking 20% of his batters faced between his minimal MLB and AAA innings logged this season. And he's not the flamethrower he used to be. He's down to averaging less than 95mph on his fastball this season. That says that either he hasn't rebounded from the arm injuries that scuttled the end of his Jays tenure or there's still something wrong and the time bomb is ticking.
Jimmy Firecracker
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red devil
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Dr.Funk
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The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
There's a piece from like 13 years ago that does show a correlation between velocity and strikeouts.
Velocity and K/9
One of the things that I’ve been wanting to look into this off-season is the relationship between velocity and effectiveness. As we all know, major league pitchers are selected off of the strength of…
(I have no idea if the chart will stay or if FG disables hotlinking)
Two things stand out though:
1) It's not as strong of a relationship as you might think or expect. There's definitely correlation but it's not huge. There aren't a lot of soft-tossers that strike guys out, but there are a bunch of big velo guys who don't.
2) This also presumably includes a ton of survivorship bias. The hard-throwing K-machines are the guys that have other tools good enough to stick it out in the bigs and be useful (the article mentions that there's a cutoff of 30 IP during the season for which the data was collected). What you don't see is the raft of fireballing scattershot guys with zero control or no secondary pitches or whatever.
If I had to draw a conclusion it's that velo influences your strikeout rate floor more than your ceiling. Soft-tossers are less likely to strike hitters out than fireballers, but fireballers are not automatically better at racking up Ks than their slower brethren.
One of the data points on that graph is a solid case study that we should be familiar with: Brandon League. Dude threw some serious gas (threw a sinker that averaged 96-97 for most of his career) but was awful at striking hitters out (usually averaging less than 15% k-rate or less than 7 k/9 for most his career)
This is a problem. If he had gotten this addressed a couple weeks ago when it wasn't that big of a deal maybe we wouldn't be in this situation right now. Lauding guys who play through injury for their toughness is a double-edged sword because in most cases playing through an injury also means making it worse.
Canada4Gold
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- Dec 22, 2010
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Curious if the Padres knew about it when they traded for Soto. These things usually take time I would think yes. On 1 hand your star is out for the postseason getting Soto helps, on the other hand, it's 1 of the 3 years you have Soto now where you're not at full strength.
Dr.Funk
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So he loses an entire season of his prime on completely self inflicted stupidity between the wrist injury being his fault and now this.
I'm sure when all is said and done he'll be worth it but man, that contract ain't looking so hot too far.
I'm sure when all is said and done he'll be worth it but man, that contract ain't looking so hot too far.
Kurtz
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There's a piece from like 13 years ago that does show a correlation between velocity and strikeouts.
Velocity and K/9
One of the things that I’ve been wanting to look into this off-season is the relationship between velocity and effectiveness. As we all know, major league pitchers are selected off of the strength of…blogs.fangraphs.com
(I have no idea if the chart will stay or if FG disables hotlinking)
Two things stand out though:
1) It's not as strong of a relationship as you might think or expect. There's definitely correlation but it's not huge. There aren't a lot of soft-tossers that strike guys out, but there are a bunch of big velo guys who don't.
2) This also presumably includes a ton of survivorship bias. The hard-throwing K-machines are the guys that have other tools good enough to stick it out in the bigs and be useful (the article mentions that there's a cutoff of 30 IP during the season for which the data was collected). What you don't see is the raft of fireballing scattershot guys with zero control or no secondary pitches or whatever.
If I had to draw a conclusion it's that velo influences your strikeout rate floor more than your ceiling. Soft-tossers are less likely to strike hitters out than fireballers, but fireballers are not automatically better at racking up Ks than their slower brethren.
One of the data points on that graph is a solid case study that we should be familiar with: Brandon League. Dude threw some serious gas (threw a sinker that averaged 96-97 for most of his career) but was awful at striking hitters out (usually averaging less than 15% k-rate or less than 7 k/9 for most his career)
This is a problem. If he had gotten this addressed a couple weeks ago when it wasn't that big of a deal maybe we wouldn't be in this situation right now. Lauding guys who play through injury for their toughness is a double-edged sword because in most cases playing through an injury also means making it worse.
That's really interesting and a bit surprising - R2 of 0.22 is considered to be weak correlation in stats. I would have assumed the coefficient of correlation/determination to be a lot higher in that regard. Serves Phil's point, I think.
Canada4Gold
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Meh. Would have been out of the 1st with no baserunners if not for the error(unearned run). Leadoff triple in the 2nd created the run on its own, the rest of that inning was fine. Led off the 3rd with 2 singles and got pulled. Reliever gives up a 3 run HR to make Ricky's line worse.
Obviously not good. But it was likely better than the line suggests.
In addition to the Toman note last night Kasevich and Doughty also off to torrid starts to their pro career. UDFA McCarty which the very interesting Division 3 slugger background got his first HR today and he's hitting over .400 as well.
Canada4Gold
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Tatis Jr to the Nats for SS C.J. Abrams, OF Robert Hassell III (High-A), OF James Wood (A), Jarlin Susana (Rookie ball), P MacKenzie Gore, 1B/DH Luke Voit who says no
Dr.Funk
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dredeye
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