Blue Jays Discussion: The trade deadline has passed. Time to see what this can do (most acquisitions expected to be present Thursday in Minnesota)

[phillipmike]

Definitely wasn't due to over powering bullpens that's for sure, I thought it was more in July they struggled to score more hence the losses pilled up a bit because the bullpen isn't strong enough. Do the jays have 1 arm that can throw a 100mph or over? Seeing a bunch of teams with closers who throw 100-103mph and they seem to be doing well... Osuna wasn't a hard thrower, Giles wasn't a hard thrower, Romano isn't a hard thrower, they throw around 95-96, the Jays haven't really had a dominant closer which they need imo to be a contender, that's just the closer I'm talking about and that's not even their worst spot in the bullpen

Getting a 100mph reliever seems like an arbitrary number. Not to mention they are so rare.

Since 2010 there has only been 2 pitcher average 100 mph out of the pen with a minimum of 100 innings; Jordan Hicks and Ardolis Chapman. And I had to round up for Chapman

Major League Leaderboards - 2010 to 2021 - Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

In that same 12 year timeframe, there have only been 8 players who weren’t consistently replacement level players who averaged 98 mph or better in the last 12;

-Aroldis Chapman
-Kelvin Herrera
-Trevor Rosenthal
-Edwin Diaz
-Dellin Betances
-Ken Giles
-Craig Kimbrel
-Felipe Vasquez

And this front office brought in Ken Giles.

The 4 highest mph pitchers the Jays had in that same time frame who were here for more than a cup of coffee were all players brought in by this front office:

-Nate Pearson
-Julian Merryweather
-Ken Giles
-Jordan Romano

Major League Leaderboards - 2010 to 2021 - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

And in 2022, there are only 2 pitchers that average 100 mph or more;

-Jhoan Duran of the Twins
-Andres Munoz of the Mariners

Neither of these guys are closers.

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

If you are upset with this front office because they can’t get 1 of 2 players in the league who meet your criteria, both teams whom you are in direct competition with in AL playoff race, then I would say your evaluation for success is really skewed. Because 28 other teams don’t have what you say is imperative to having a successful bullpen.

And neither Duran nor Munoz are closers even though they hit 100mph. So the player you believe is critical to playoff success doesn’t exist.

 

[dredeye]

Please me for the love of all that is good in this world stop with the leafs/jays comps. It means nothing and many here aren’t leafs fans. Take it to your private messages.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Sorry to Nemesis or whichever mod ends up looking at the 20 reported posts but this shits been going on for days now and nothing has been done to stop it, and the posters who are continuing it aren't getting the casual hints so here's a very blunt one. Nobody cares about your damn Dubas/Atkins comparisons. Quit it already please. This isn't a hockey thread

 

[dredeye]

Sorry to Nemesis or whichever mod ends up looking at the 20 reported posts but this shits been going on for days now and nothing has been done to stop it, and the posters who are continuing it aren't getting the casual hints so here's a very blunt one. Nobody cares about your damn Dubas/Atkins comparisons. Quit it already please. This isn't a hockey thread

It’s certainly gotten old

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Getting a 100mph reliever seems like an arbitrary number. Not to mention they are so rare.

Since 2010 there has only been 2 pitcher average 100 mph out of the pen with a minimum of 100 innings; Jordan Hicks and Ardolis Chapman. And I had to round up for Chapman

Major League Leaderboards - 2010 to 2021 - Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

In that same 12 year timeframe, there have only been 8 players who weren’t consistently replacement level players who averaged 98 mph or better in the last 12;

-Aroldis Chapman
-Kelvin Herrera
-Trevor Rosenthal
-Edwin Diaz
-Dellin Betances
-Ken Giles
-Craig Kimbrel
-Felipe Vasquez

And this front office brought in Ken Giles.

The 4 highest mph pitchers the Jays had in that same time frame who were here for more than a cup of coffee were all players brought in by this front office:

-Nate Pearson
-Julian Merryweather
-Ken Giles
-Jordan Romano

Major League Leaderboards - 2010 to 2021 - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

And in 2022, there are only 2 pitchers that average 100 mph or more;

-Jhoan Duran of the Twins
-Andres Munoz of the Mariners

Neither of these guys are closers.

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

If you are upset with this front office because they can’t get 1 of 2 players in the league who meet your criteria, both teams whom you are in direct competition with in AL playoff race, then I would say your evaluation for success is really skewed. Because 28 other teams don’t have what you say is imperative to having a successful bullpen.

And neither Duran nor Munoz are closers even though they hit 100mph. So the player you believe is critical to playoff success doesn’t exist.

Yeah it was Munoz last week for the Mariners who was actually closing lol when I saw him hit 103 against Judge, and then heard about this Twins guy throwing 102. Pitchers are hitting 100 way more than ever before, they may not be averaging it but they're hitting it. I was reading how since 2008 when pitch track came in, 223 players have hit 100, and half of those have happened since 2018, so the trend shows their hitting that number way more now. If you don't think having a pitcher who can throw that kind of heat isn't going to help you win more well ok then, the more batters see that speed the more 95-96 doesn't look as fast as it used to.

I'm upset with this front office since last years trade deadline this year just added to the fuel. I was on board with them when they cleaned house and got ride of all the fans favorites because it was the right thing to do, but in the last couple years what's been needed to be addressed was pitching mostly bullpen support and they have failed at it the last couple years.

I still question trading SP like a Happ and getting no pitching in return, or again trading 2 pitchers Sanchez and Biagini and again no pitching in return, just more outfield depth and Drury, at least a pitching prospect and hope he can turn into something, some pitching. Just feels like this management is more interested in trying to find more offensive threat in the batting lineup then improving this horrible bullpen.

No I don't think Romano is a strong enough closer to get you deep yet alone win a world series with, but I don't think he's horrible he's just average hence why I said the closer isn't the worst part of it, the rest of the bullpen is bad and can't be relied on, their not dominate enough. I do like Garcia it's unfortunate what happened to him the other night, but even his last couple outings there's been a few more runners on base then earlier in the year and that's not good to see because it hurt him last game. When ever I see Thornton or Richards name on the screen seems like at least 1 or 2 runs will probably score and chances are a HR will be given up, that's not going to help you go deep in the playoffs. Cimber is another one who just throws some hitters off due to his release being different but he throws so slow eventually guys get used to it and then can hit him, he's just not dominate enough, just like Romo experience.

 

[Kurtz]

Sorry to Nemesis or whichever mod ends up looking at the 20 reported posts but this shits been going on for days now and nothing has been done to stop it, and the posters who are continuing it aren't getting the casual hints so here's a very blunt one. Nobody cares about your damn Dubas/Atkins comparisons. Quit it already please. This isn't a hockey thread

I agree that that conversation has certainly ran it's course...but this is a really strange thing to spaz out about in a Blue Jays thread on a Leafs message board during a 2 day stretch where there are no Jays games or Jays news of any kind.


Anyway, Morosi was on the morning show today and said a couple of interesting things:

1. He's talked to insiders since the deadline and he's been told that a Bichette+Moreno+Martinez+Tiedmann package would have been roughly equivalent in value to what the Padres gave up. Personally, I don't think I give up all of that for Soto, but it's interesting to think about.

2. If the Jays have to move one of Lourdes or Teoscar in the off-season (if Springer is moved to the corners full-time), he doesn't think either is valuable enough in a trade to bring back a top-50 prospect. That surprises me a bit as I think that Teoscar especially does have some serious value.

3. He thought that the Jays needed to do more at the deadline to close the gap with NYY and Houston, and would at the very least add a Happ or a Peralta.

4. Finally - and this bit was pure speculation from him, but he says Springer has a reputation around the league for being similar to a hockey player in his ability to tough it out and play through injury...so he thinks he might be hurt more seriously than the team has let on.

 

[Eyedea]

Romano, Merryweather, and Pearson have hit triple digits. Zulueta hits it. Pop has reached 99.

 

[Woodman19]

Frankly I could care less if a pitcher throws 55, I just want someone who can consistently get outs.

 

[phillipmike]

Yeah it was Munoz last week for the Mariners who was actually closing lol when I saw him hit 103 against Judge, and then heard about this Twins guy throwing 102. Pitchers are hitting 100 way more than ever before, they may not be averaging it but they're hitting it. I was reading how since 2008 when pitch track came in, 223 players have hit 100, and half of those have happened since 2018, so the trend shows their hitting that number way more now. If you don't think having a pitcher who can throw that kind of heat isn't going to help you win more well ok then, the more batters see that speed the more 95-96 doesn't look as fast as it used to.

I'm upset with this front office since last years trade deadline this year just added to the fuel. I was on board with them when they cleaned house and got ride of all the fans favorites because it was the right thing to do, but in the last couple years what's been needed to be addressed was pitching mostly bullpen support and they have failed at it the last couple years.

I still question trading SP like a Happ and getting no pitching in return, or again trading 2 pitchers Sanchez and Biagini and again no pitching in return, just more outfield depth and Drury, at least a pitching prospect and hope he can turn into something, some pitching. Just feels like this management is more interested in trying to find more offensive threat in the batting lineup then improving this horrible bullpen.

No I don't think Romano is a strong enough closer to get you deep yet alone win a world series with, but I don't think he's horrible he's just average hence why I said the closer isn't the worst part of it, the rest of the bullpen is bad and can't be relied on, their not dominate enough. I do like Garcia it's unfortunate what happened to him the other night, but even his last couple outings there's been a few more runners on base then earlier in the year and that's not good to see because it hurt him last game. When ever I see Thornton or Richards name on the screen seems like at least 1 or 2 runs will probably score and chances are a HR will be given up, that's not going to help you go deep in the playoffs. Cimber is another one who just throws some hitters off due to his release being different but he throws so slow eventually guys get used to it and then can hit him, he's just not dominate enough, just like Romo experience.

My point is there is no correlation of guys that can consistency throw heat and be effective at getting batters out. If that were the case everyone would acquire the fastest throwing pitcher.

There are many other factors that make pitchers effective and getting batters out which is what matters most;

-Secondary pitches
-movement
-arm angle
-arm slot
-deception
-release point
-repertoire
-late movement

And the list goes on. It’s why more good or great relievers have a mid-high 90s fastball because they can control it. And the have an elite secondary out pitch.

Here are the number of relievers who average more than 97 mph among the AL contenders;

Houston: 3
Yankees: 2
Minnesota: 2
Seattle: 1
Toronto: 1
Tampa: 0

If the Jays play Seattle or Tampa in the first round those teams have no edge there.

The Yankees have 1 extra player and one of those guys has a -0.1 fWAR this year in Abreu, is he even guaranteed to make the playoff roster? Chapman didn’t have enough innings to qualify but he averages 98 mph but he is walking 6 batters per 9 innings with a -0.2 fWAR, he may not make the playoff roster either. Every single player currently on the Jays roster has a better K to ratio than Chapman and that includes Kikuchi.

Yankees added 2 guys at the deadline; one that averages 96 in Trevino and another that averages 91 Effross.

Jays added Bass who averages 95 and Pop who averages 96.

Minnesota’s top 2 velo guys in Duran and Lopez have a combined fWAR of 2.1. The Jays top 2 velo guys have a combined fWAR of 2.0 in Bass and Romano.

Only “edge” I see is Houston. Houston’s top 3 velo guys have put up 2.8 fWAR this season in Stanek, Abreu and Montero to the Jays 2.6 fWAR in Bass, Romano and Garcia. Is there really an edge here?

 

[phillipmike]

Since Bowden Francis moved to the pen, he went from awful starter to intriguing pen arm.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Speaking of hard throwing relievers, has anyone paid attention to what Edwin Diaz has done this year?

1.39 ERA
1.50 xERA
0.83 FIP
0.59 xFIP
0.88 SIERA
18.07 K/9
2.38 BB/9
1.5% Barrel%
43.1% O-swing%
23.8% SwStr%
(Epic walkout song)

Video game numbers.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

The worst part is the Jays barely gained ground on the slumping Yanks

 

[Kurtz]

My point is there is no correlation of guys that can consistency throw heat and be effective at getting batters out. If that were the case everyone would acquire the fastest throwing pitcher.

There are many other factors that make pitchers effective and getting batters out which is what matters most;

-Secondary pitches
-movement
-arm angle
-arm slot
-deception
-release point
-repertoire
-late movement

And the list goes on. It’s why more good or great relievers have a mid-high 90s fastball because they can control it. And the have an elite secondary out pitch.

Here are the number of relievers who average more than 97 mph among the AL contenders;

Houston: 3
Yankees: 2
Minnesota: 2
Seattle: 1
Toronto: 1
Tampa: 0

If the Jays play Seattle or Tampa in the first round those teams have no edge there.

The Yankees have 1 extra player and one of those guys has a -0.1 fWAR this year in Abreu, is he even guaranteed to make the playoff roster? Chapman didn’t have enough innings to qualify but he averages 98 mph but he is walking 6 batters per 9 innings with a -0.2 fWAR, he may not make the playoff roster either. Every single player currently on the Jays roster has a better K to ratio than Chapman and that includes Kikuchi.

Yankees added 2 guys at the deadline; one that averages 96 in Trevino and another that averages 91 Effross.

Jays added Bass who averages 95 and Pop who averages 96.

Minnesota’s top 2 velo guys in Duran and Lopez have a combined fWAR of 2.1. The Jays top 2 velo guys have a combined fWAR of 2.0 in Bass and Romano.

Only “edge” I see is Houston. Houston’s top 3 velo guys have put up 2.8 fWAR this season in Stanek, Abreu and Montero to the Jays 2.6 fWAR in Bass, Romano and Garcia. Is there really an edge here?

I'm curious if there are stats out there (I'm sure there are) that show the correlation between average velocity and K rate. I've always assumed that they are significantly positively correlated.

 

[phillipmike]

I'm curious if there are stats out there (I'm sure there are) that show the correlation between average velocity and K rate. I've always assumed that they are significantly positively correlated.

I would assume there is a correlation. I would also assume there is a higher walk rate too. The guys who hit the upper 90s consistently with low walk rates are truly elite but extremely rare.

Just look at the list i posted earlier;

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

6 guys in the top 10 have double digit Ks per 9 with sub 3 walks per 9.

The next 5 excluding Garcia strike out 9 batters per 9 but walk 4-6 per 9 which is truly awful for a backend bullpen option and one of those guys is Gregory Soto who many wanted at the deadline. Soto has an expected FIP of 4.52 which he is outperforming by a lot. He has been regressing as of late. He has a 8 ERA in August and a 5.40 ERA in the 2nd half not to mentioned the Tigers have lost every game he has been in since the deadline.

And according to Passan the ask for Soto+ was Moreno.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Tucker Toman 2 for 2 with 2 walks today. Off to a scorching start in his career.

Getting Trea Turner vibes from him, and by that I mean guy we were rumoured to be after in the 1st round who I really didn't want to pick in the first round. I was absolutely wrong with Turner and I'd be pumped to be wrong again after getting Toman in the comp round instead

 

[dredeye]

The worst part is the Jays barely gained ground on the slumping Yanks

The worst part is that this is when we see the Orioles the most. The yanks got them heavily at the start of the year

 

[MS]

Anyway, Morosi was on the morning show today and said a couple of interesting things:

1. He's talked to insiders since the deadline and he's been told that a Bichette+Moreno+Martinez+Tiedmann package would have been roughly equivalent in value to what the Padres gave up. Personally, I don't think I give up all of that for Soto, but it's interesting to think about.

I ... what?

San Diego didn't have to give up a young All-Star position player like Bichette (who has averaged 5.1 WAR/162 in his career, only 1 WAR/162 less than Soto), didn't have to give up a prospect ranked as highly as Moreno, and didn't have to give up a pitching arm anywhere near the level of Tiedemann. And Josh Bell, who is on pace for a 5 WAR season, was also included and has to cancel out at least one of the top prospects going the other way.

 

[Bjindaho]

I ... what?

San Diego didn't have to give up a young All-Star position player like Bichette (who has averaged 5.1 WAR/162 in his career, only 1 WAR/162 less than Soto), didn't have to give up a prospect ranked as highly as Moreno, and didn't have to give up a pitching arm anywhere near the level of Tiedemann. And Josh Bell, who is on pace for a 5 WAR season, was also included and has to cancel out at least one of the top prospects going the other way.

You clearly weren't here on deadline day when that conversation originally started. Basically, Washington doesn't rate our prospects nearly as high as the rest of the industry does (but I believe that the original report was that they would rather have Biggio over Martinez).

That should give you an idea of how little they thought of our prospects if Biggio versus Martinez were an actual conversation.

Management was completely handicapped by their success in dumping prospects who were starting to look like they had a limited path to the big leagues.

 

[Deebo]

Sorry to Nemesis or whichever mod ends up looking at the 20 reported posts but this shits been going on for days now and nothing has been done to stop it, and the posters who are continuing it aren't getting the casual hints so here's a very blunt one. Nobody cares about your damn Dubas/Atkins comparisons. Quit it already please. This isn't a hockey thread

Ignore it or scroll past, its not hard.

 

[Bjindaho]

Ignore it or scroll past, its not hard.

There have been roughly 20 pages of it since the deadline. It becomes hard to scroll past.

 

[Deebo]

There have been roughly 20 pages of it since the deadline. It becomes hard to scroll past.

I've managed to do it well, I don't care about the comparison much either so I just haven't read it. It's very easy.

There are tonnes of convserastions that go on for pages that I am not interested in and I'm sure lots people have multiple convserations they aren't interested in and scroll past it easily. This particualar topic seems to bother people for some reason.

 

[Discoverer]

Did I miss the Gord Ash vs. Dave Nonis stuff?

 

[Bjindaho]

Did I miss the Gord Ash vs. Dave Nonis stuff?

We don't talk about those days

 

[Discoverer]

Since Bowden Francis moved to the pen, he went from awful starter to intriguing pen arm.

What's really weird is that he's not being used in a normal relief role. He's been mostly starting games but then going just 2-3 innings. It's basically the opener role, but I don't really remember seeing them do that with minor-league pitchers yet - they generally develop pitchers in a traditional starter/reliever role and then use them as openers as needed.

 

[Eyedea]

What's really weird is that he's not being used in a normal relief role. He's been mostly starting games but then going just 2-3 innings. It's basically the opener role, but I don't really remember seeing them do that with minor-league pitchers yet - they generally develop pitchers in a traditional starter/reliever role and then use them as openers as needed.

Juenger was routinely starting prior to being in the bullpen but his role hasn’t exactly changed (going one to two times max through the batting order).