The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[WeThreeKings]

Trades with important pieces going the other way, no (unless it's a once in a lifetime opportunity, a miracle). That's what my whole reply was about. Go back a few replies in our conversation and you already have my answer for FA. I even answered "sure you do it", so you can forgoe trying to corner me with a ridiculous reduction. I already answered for FA and despite that, you try this.

I bit of continuity in logic here. I'm talking about staking talent, herego I'm concentrating mainly on growing our asset base. Do FA add to an asset base? Yes. Do trades like Monahan and Laine add to an asset base? They sure do.

I'm precisely talking about not TRADING important pieces TOO EARLY, and making sure to have a strong enough asset base so that when we do trade important pieces, it will be to make us contenders.

Trading away important pieces to reach the playoffs is exactly how you end-up either a perpetual rebuild or perpetual bubble team.

I think this post more clearly explains your point; thanks for writing it.

 

[LaP]

If you look at the 1st rd picks and the players added using 1sts, they’re batting around .500.

I know there’s still room for growth, rehab, and development …. BUT, if I had a magic do-over button right now, I undo these:

- draft Reinbacher
- trade for Dach
- trade for Newhook
- draft Mesar

Future still bright, but they are whiffs that are drawing things out a little longer than expected.

Who do you draft instead of Mesar?

 

[Sorinth]

Trades with important pieces going the other way, no (unless it's a once in a lifetime opportunity, a miracle). That's what my whole reply was about. Go back a few replies in our conversation and you already have my answer for FA. I even answered "sure you do it", so you can forgoe trying to corner me with a ridiculous reduction. I already answered for FA and despite that, you try this.

I'm not trying to corner you, I was genuinely trying to understand your position. And honestly if your going to react like this I'm not sure it's worth the bother.

I bit of continuity in logic here. I'm talking about staking talent, herego I'm concentrating mainly on growing our asset base. Do FA add to an asset base? Yes. Do trades like Monahan and Laine add to an asset base? They sure do.

I'm precisely talking about not TRADING important pieces TOO EARLY, and making sure to have a strong enough asset base so that when we do trade important pieces, it will be to make us contenders.

Trading away important pieces to reach the playoffs is exactly how you end-up either a perpetual rebuild or perpetual bubble team.

Does a trade like Dach add to our asset base? Because if he reaches his potential then it should clearly be yes, even though we traded what some might consider an important piece and did it early in the rebuild.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I'm not trying to corner you, I was genuinely trying to understand your position. And honestly if your going to react like this I'm not sure it's worth the bother.

Does a trade like Dach add to our asset base? Because if he reaches his potential then it should clearly be yes, even though we traded what some might consider an important piece and did it early in the rebuild.

No it does not. It's a sideway move to fill a position of need from a position of strenght (we had many lefties coming up, including Guhle, Struble and Jackeye), no matter if you think Romanov was an important piece or not. Your total value doesn't budge.

I don't mind sideway moves if they make sense and if they aren't too much of a gamble.

 

[ReHabs]

IMO the problems with using the term "asset base" to discuss a hockey team is that at some point you get far too abstract and miss the forest for the trees. I'm guilty of this too when obsessing with stats and trends (thankfully not "advanced stats").

It's sports: most of the discussions should be around the act of performing the sport and who is best fit for what role and if a certain player should do X or Y to bring us more success.

Even a rebuild is about building a team, the team is composed of players, the players (if they're young) will be on upward trajectories. That's where I get caught up on the current season... they seem to be on the verge of beginning to turn the corner but until recently the performances of the players was extremely disappointing to me.

When the time comes to trade and make decisions about cap allocation, it'll be centred on what the GM thinks will improve the team as he sees it at that time. This is what bewildered me about Bergevin, he said centremen were not available... they were, they were just too expensive for his tastes... but what was the alternative? He figured squandering playoff runs by relying on Desharnais-Plekanec was better than trading first round picks for centremen and top6 players. It was an absurd miscalculation.

 

[Sorinth]

No it does not. It's a sideway move to fill a position of need from a position of strenght (we had many lefties coming up, including Guhle, Struble and Jackeye), no matter if you think Romanov was an important piece or not. Your total value doesn't budge.

I don't mind sideway moves if they make sense and if they aren't too much of a gamble.

But that's just it, if Dach does reach his potential then the "total value" has changed dramatically. A 1B center which is probably Dach's potential is a lot more valuable then a #4-5 D.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

But that's just it, if Dach does reach his potential then the "total value" has changed dramatically. A 1B center which is probably Dach's potential is a lot more valuable then a #4-5 D.

So you're precluding more potential for Dach, but not Romanov? They are one year apart in age and dmen take more time. For all you know Romy could be #2-3 in two years time while Dach never goes over the hump.

At the time of the trade, it was a sideway move, pure and simple. Both players still had much potential and we had several of what Romy is (LD) and few of what Dach is (C).

 

[CHwest]

So you're precluding more potential for Dach, but not Romanov? They are one year apart in age and dmen take more time. For all you know Romy could be #2-3 in two years time while Dach never goes over the hump.

At the time of the trade, it was a sideway move, pure and simple. Both players still had much potential and we had several of what Romy is (LD) and few of what Dach is (C).

It was not a sideways move, they needed a center and projected him to be it.

 

[Sorinth]

So you're precluding more potential for Dach, but not Romanov? They are one year apart in age and dmen take more time. For all you know Romy could be #2-3 in two years time while Dach never goes over the hump.

At the time of the trade, it was a sideway move, pure and simple. Both players still had much potential and we had several of what Romy is (LD) and few of what Dach is (C).

Not at all if Dach busts and Romanov progresses we would have lost value on that trade. That's the whole point I'm making, the value is almost certainly going to change. And let's not pretend that just because both guys are close in age and we're essentially traded for each other that must mean they have the exact same value/potential. Does Jordan Harris have just as much potential as Patrick Laine, after all it's only 2 year age difference. Or what about the Newhook trade, bigger age difference but still very much a potential for potential type of trade. Is it sideways too?

 

[HuGort]

Habs should contend next season if they make right moves. Washington was bad team last year and top team in league now.

Capitals fixed their defense with signing Matt Roy and getting a deal on Chrychun. Took on a reclamation project in Dubois. Which has worked out. A youngster has stepped up in McMichael.

Habs should get help next year with rookies. Between Demidov, Beck or Dobes. They need to fix they defense and add a quality center.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Habs should contend next season if they make right moves. Washington was bad team last year and top team in league now.

Capitals fixed their defense with signing Matt Roy and getting a deal on Chrychun. Took on a reclamation project in Dubois. Which has worked out. A youngster has stepped up in McMichael.

Habs should get help next year with rookies. Between Demidov, Beck or Dobes. They need to fix they defense and add a quality center.

Next years same excuses will flow : Hutson still young, Demidov and Beck rookies, Suzuki only in his D+9, CC Dach Newhook only on their D+7... System is complicated... Funnily enough I think several teams prove you don't need the most talented players to build a competitive team.

As long as everybody is happy with them losing it can become a vicious circle, see BUF, ANA, OTT. Not a coincidence if Eichel Reinhart O Reilly and now Chychurn are thriving somewhere else...

 

[salbutera]

There is no GM or management group that’s able to forecast a major injury delaying development or even stalling a players career.

These takes on Redenbacher & Dach are asinine especially given the same team that drafted Michkov was desperately trying to land another pick in the same spot (5OA) to land Redenbacher…

 

[FrankMTL]

We can be negative all we want about the rebuild, but at the moment, the top 4 point leaders on the team are all part of our young core going forward as opposed to most of the other rebuilding teams who have older players leading the team.

Our top 4 point leaders (Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson and Slafkovsky) have an average age of 22.

 

[BozoTheClown]

I laugh ever time is see people mentioning Buffalo, Ottawa, Anaheim as a reason why we shouldn’t tank, but they failed to mentioned Chicago, Florida, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Colorado and so on.

If you tank without a plan, line the Montreal Canadiens, Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators then you will never be successful.

 

[BozoTheClown]

Trading a 13th , 27th, 31st, 2 37th and a 66th pick for a point production of 10 goals and 13 assists for 23 points and a -42, between 3 players, isn’t a winning strategy to build a cup contender.

 

[CoopersFalls]

The next step is getting an assistant coach in there who can implement a defensive system. This current system is horrendous. I’m all for letting St. Louis grow in the role but can’t keep seeing the same catastrophe

 

[austin316]

We have one, maybe two pieces to build around and that’s Hutson and Demidov (hopefully). By the time any of our rookies hopefully progress and make a meaningful impact Suzuki and Caufield will be close to 30.

The swings and misses on Slaf, Dach, Reinbacher, and Newhook, and to a lesser extent Mesar have set this franchise back another 5 years. No elite talent on this group which is the same as prior years, except at least we had Price to give us a fighting chance.

Trading a 13th , 27th, 31st, 2 37th and a 66th pick for a point production of 10 goals and 13 assists for 23 points and a -38, between 3 players, isn’t a winning strategy to build a cup contender.

Not enough people are talking about this. Hughes has been a disaster so far.

 

[Habby4Life]

We have one, maybe two pieces to build around and that’s Hutson and Demidov (hopefully). By the time any of our rookies hopefully progress and make a meaningful impact Suzuki and Caufield will be close to 30.

The swings and misses on Slaf, Dach, Reinbacher, and Newhook, and to a lesser extent Mesar have set this franchise back another 5 years. No elite talent on this group which is the same as prior years, except at least we had Price to give us a fighting chance.


Not enough people are talking about this. Hughes has been a disaster so far.

The love in isn’t over just yet.

 

[austin316]

The love in isn’t over just yet.

If you look at the players performing so far this year, they have all been Bergevin acquisitions. Hughes trades and draft picks have all been disappointing (sans Hutson).

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We have one, maybe two pieces to build around and that’s Hutson and Demidov (hopefully). By the time any of our rookies hopefully progress and make a meaningful impact Suzuki and Caufield will be close to 30.

Come on….

 

[Habby4Life]

If you look at the players performing so far this year, they have all been Bergevin acquisitions. Hughes trades and draft picks have all been disappointing (sans Hutson).

I never looked at it that way but you are bang on. That’s says it all.

Come on….

He isn’t wrong.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I never looked at it that way but you are bang on. That’s says it all.


He isn’t wrong.

He’s very wrong.

 

[Habby4Life]

He’s very wrong.

Nope, he nailed it. Nothing special about the habs prospects outside of lane and Demidov.

We can look back at it in a few years just like we did with Newhook, Dach, and Roy.

 

[BozoTheClown]

Not enough people are talking about this. Hughes has been a disaster so far.

Those were 3 consecutive years and one was Bergevin acquiring Dvorak.

Because just like the Bergevin era, people will defend the current regime until we go 10 years without much.

The season we were out in the playoffs when we should not have in 2019-2020 and the following “all Canadian teams” 2020-2021 division affected the rebuild tremendously.
We sucked but still made the playoffs.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Nope, he nailed it. Nothing special about the habs prospects outside of lane and Demidov.

Okay. Let’s say they’re the only two superstars coming up. Two superstars alone is enough to make you a contending team if you’ve got a good support group.

Then you add in Suzuki, CC, Slaf, Laine, Ghule, Hage, Beck, Fowler, RB…. That’s a lot of talent here or on the way. It’s not just the high end talent we’ve got, it’s the volume.

Some will miss. Mailloux, Roy, Dach… we’ll wait and see. Maybe they don’t materialize. A guy like Engstrom may not be able to crack the lineup on the left side. Some will hit and some will miss. We know this. It’s the nature of rebuilding. Not all your prospects pan out. And btw, some will be better than expected. I don’t expect Fowler to be a star but I also wouldn’t be shocked by it. We’ll have to wait and see.

When you’ve got a volume of strong players in the pipeline you’re in good shape. Few teams have the quality and volume that we have. That’s just a fact.