Speculation: The Quest to sign Lindholm: Part II

[Number 57]

If Lindholm ends up being traded it would be wise for Anaheim to take futures in return. I think they're team are set to head downhill already and adding aging players wouldn't really be a great decision.

How can a team with such a young top-3 D (Lindholm Fowler Vatanen) and goalie (Gibson) be going downhill? Up front Getzlaf and Perry are only 31 so you probably got 4-5 years of dominant play from them remaining. They have a great prospect pool with Larsson, Montour, Theodore, Kerdiles, Ritchie, Steel, Jones and Sorensen not to mention other young veterans such as Silfverberg, Cogliano, Despres and Rakell (when signed).

This is not a team trending downward. Actually, with all those talented Ds coming up, if they can get a 1st line forward back for Lindholm and get Rakell signed, they would have one of the best line-up in the league and be in my opinion top contenders for a while.

Ritchie - Getzlaf - Perry
Rakell - Kesler - (forward from the Lindholm trade)
Kerdiles/Steel/Jones - Cogliano - Silfverberg

Fowler - Vatanen
Larsson - Theodore
Despres - Montour

Gibson

 

[xxreact9]

No one said it was your problem, I was pointing out the sticking point in the negotiations. It's no so much budget/cap related as it is Murray not wanting to pay star money for a player who hasn't reached a star level as of yet.



There UFA contracts there that aren't relevant for comparison. Which of those deals was signed straight off of an ELC before the player had consistently played at a #1 level?

They aren't directly comparable and I never said they were, I've stated many times the Rielly, Risto and Ekblad are the references.

The post was about the perception of what cap hits mean in today's game vs the past by virtue of the cap increasing and the league evolving. It had nothing to do with ELC comparisons and I'm not sure how you perceived that.

 

[Mr Positive]

No one said it was your problem, I was pointing out the sticking point in the negotiations. It's no so much budget/cap related as it is Murray not wanting to pay star money for a player who hasn't reached a star level as of yet.



There UFA contracts there that aren't relevant for comparison. Which of those deals was signed straight off of an ELC before the player had consistently played at a #1 level?

Pietrangelo and Karlsson's deals were off ELCs

Pietrangelo signed when the cap was 64 million. An equivalent contract would be around 7.5 today.

Karlsson signed while the cap was 70 million, so the adjusted deal is not much different. He played right away with no ELC slide though, unlike Pietrangelo and Lindholm

Imo Lindholm should be lower than these guys, but he is a 1D for his team, a very good team, so that has to be costly I'd think. I don't see why he would take as little as players like Jones or Ristoleinen, who haven't been as good.

 

[Avs44]

How can a team with such a young top-3 D (Lindholm Fowler Vatanen) and goalie (Gibson) be going downhill? Up front Getzlaf and Perry are only 31 so you probably got 4-5 years of dominant play from them remaining. They have a great prospect pool with Larsson, Montour, Theodore, Kerdiles, Ritchie, Steel, Jones and Sorensen not to mention other young veterans such as Silfverberg, Cogliano, Despres and Rakell (when signed).

This is not a team trending downward. Actually, with all those talented Ds coming up, if they can get a 1st line forward back for Lindholm and get Rakell signed, they would have one of the best line-up in the league and be in my opinion top contenders for a while.

Ritchie - Getzlaf - Perry
Rakell - Kesler - (forward from the Lindholm trade)
Kerdiles/Steel/Jones - Cogliano - Silfverberg

Fowler - Vatanen
Larsson - Theodore
Despres - Montour

Gibson

I think you're making an awfully big assumption. There is no reason to believe there are five more "dominant" years out of Perry and Getzlaf. You're basically assuming they are Joe Thornton 2.0, or the Sedin twins, but many players are not that. I don't think either Perry or Getzlaf have ever been known to be fitness freaks, which is absolutely mandatory if a player wants to continue playing at a high level as they age. I could actually see Getzlaf performing quite well as he ages, but Perry? With his style, I think it would be silly not to predict a decline.


And then there is Kesler. He's always played a brand of hockey that very much relies on his physical attributes, and he certainly will be / already is declining. They have over 15 million tied up in Perry and Kesler together...if those two start declining significantly - and not even to the point of being useless, just to the point where Kesler is a good two way third liner and Perry is just a decent top six winger - that 15 million alone could sink their chances of competing, particularly if the owners stick to a budget.


There is also, at this point in time, absolutely nobody who can come close to filling the shoes of Getzlaf or Perry. They have a supporting cast of young / future forwards, right now but I'm not seeing anybody elite...and that, again, could be a really big problem that sinks their chances of competing.



Anaheim could very well, and is, in my opinion, facing a situation where I'm expecting 2/3rds of their three best forwards to significantly drop off, and not only do they have massive cap hits, but there is nobody to replace them. That's not the brightest of futures.

 

[Number 57]

I think you're making an awfully big assumption. There is no reason to believe there are five more "dominant" years out of Perry and Getzlaf. You're basically assuming they are Joe Thornton 2.0, or the Sedin twins, but many players are not that. I don't think either Perry or Getzlaf have ever been known to be fitness freaks, which is absolutely mandatory if a player wants to continue playing at a high level as they age. I could actually see Getzlaf performing quite well as he ages, but Perry? With his style, I think it would be silly not to predict a decline.


And then there is Kesler. He's always played a brand of hockey that very much relies on his physical attributes, and he certainly will be / already is declining. They have over 15 million tied up in Perry and Kesler together...if those two start declining significantly - and not even to the point of being useless, just to the point where Kesler is a good two way third liner and Perry is just a decent top six winger - that 15 million alone could sink their chances of competing, particularly if the owners stick to a budget.


There is also, at this point in time, absolutely nobody who can come close to filling the shoes of Getzlaf or Perry. They have a supporting cast of young / future forwards, right now but I'm not seeing anybody elite...and that, again, could be a really big problem that sinks their chances of competing.



Anaheim could very well, and is, in my opinion, facing a situation where I'm expecting 2/3rds of their three best forwards to significantly drop off, and not only do they have massive cap hits, but there is nobody to replace them. That's not the brightest of futures.

I look at Thornton, Iginla, Sedins, Jagr who all have played well into thir late 30's. If healthy, there is no reason Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler wouldn't still be pretty damn good for 4-5 years. Actually, save for big injuries that derailed a player's career, who are the last ''elite'' players who randomly started to decline around 34 or 35 years of age? Even a guy like Zetterberg is 36 now and is just starting to decline, and injuries have played a part.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

From Bob McKenzie:

And the market is effectively set for him. That Ristolainen deal – he’s not taking less than that. No chance. No how. Because Ristolainen only gave up one year of unrestricted free agency on that six-year deal at 5.4. And if Hampus Lindholm takes a six-year deal at 5.4, he’s giving up two years of unrestricted free agency. So I would say that Ristolainen deal, to me, would be the floor for what Lindholm would want to take. I’m sure he probably wants more, but he also wants to stay in Anaheim – so maybe he’ll take the discount to get it done here.

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/mckenzie-fowler-trade-may-follow-lindholm-signing/


So those that speculate he wants a trade can stop

“I would suspect that if they do get Lindholm signed it won’t be long before they make a trade and my guess would be Fowler will be moving, probably to an Eastern Conference team. I know Buffalo had great interest in him, and we thought there was a deal done at the draft – that Fowler might be going to Buffalo. Boston would be a team that has interest in Fowler, amongst others. There’ll be all sorts.

So there will be a big market for Fowler, your lowball offers won't get it done, sorry hf.

 

[Trolfoli]

With that last signing is moving Fowler enough cap space to get Lindholm signed? It's going to be close.

http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/anaheim-ducks

Has the Ducks at +400k over the cap with 25 players on the roster. Cut that down to 23 that'll give you about 1.2M space. Fowler is at 4M, 1.2+4=5.2 isn't enough to get Lindholm signed and doesn't leave any space on the cap.

 

[dracom]

With that last signing is moving Fowler enough cap space to get Lindholm signed? It's going to be close.

Move Fowler and Stoner together, take futures back and re-sign Lindholm.

 

[BB88]

From Bob McKenzie:

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/mckenzie-fowler-trade-may-follow-lindholm-signing/


So those that speculate he wants a trade can stop



So there will be a big market for Fowler, your lowball offers won't get it done, sorry hf.

It absolutely hurts his value that Anaheim has to move someone.
The season has already started.

They have what at best 6-6.5M cap space right now with 12 forwards and 6 defenseman?
That's not even close to enough for signing Lindholm and Rakell.

edit so now .3M cap space without Lindholm.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Move Fowler and Stoner together, take futures back and re-sign Lindholm.

How many teams can afford to do this? Other then maybe Carolina or New Jersey especially for futures.

 

[Avs44]

Move Fowler and Stoner together, take futures back and re-sign Lindholm.

I think Murray has to do something like this. He should have dumped Stoner when he moved Anderson, especially since Bernier came back as essentially a piece of that deal as well, but he needs to rectify that now.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

It absolutely hurts his value that Anaheim has to move someone.

They have what at best 6-6.5M cap space right now with 12 forwards and 6 defenseman?
That's not even close to enough for signing Lindholm and Rakell.

his value isn't hurt at all if there is a big market for him, if anything teams knowing he's on the market, and knowing anaheim could or will move him is only going to generate more interest.

if the market was 1 or 2 teams, sure the value would suffer but if there's several? no way.

 

[Trolfoli]

Move Fowler and Stoner together, take futures back and re-sign Lindholm.

Yeah, but the cost of moving cap dumps is getting expensive. See what the Hawks have had to do the last few year.

Also they better have the second part of this worked out because an offersheet is a real issue now.

 

[Whileee]

Fowler for Trouba?

Anaheim gets the space to sign their RFA's.

Winnipeg gets that young LHD they want.

Anaheim can then trade Trouba to the highest bidder.

A base at least.

Nope. Jets will just deal Trouba to the highest bidder directly, and that wouldn't be Anaheim if Fowler is the center piece.

 

[BB88]

his value isn't hurt at all if there is a big market for him, if anything teams knowing he's on the market, and knowing anaheim could or will move him is only going to generate more interest.

if the market was 1 or 2 teams, sure the value would suffer but if there's several? no way.

The season has already started, I don't see you getting anywhere close to full value.
I could agree with you if this was draft time.

Now Anaheim has .3M cap space without Lindholm.

 

[dracom]

Yeah, but the cost of moving cap dumps is getting expensive. See what the Hawks have had to do the last few year.

Also they better have the second part of this worked out because an offersheet is a real issue now.

I understand the cost, which is why Fowler is included. Also, an OS is still not a threat because teams don't do it. If they wanted to, they would have done it when we had 3.4 mil in cap space left.

 

[Daximus]

Wish Trouba would play for a western team. Could be a chance to swap Trouba plus futures for Lindholm and a cap dump of some sort. Looks like Trouba only wants to be in Detroit though.

 

[Curufinwe]

What about a trade where the Flyers send MDZ to a team like Winnipeg that could use a top 4 LHD for a 2nd, and Anaheim trades us Bieska + 2nd for a 7th. Obviously, Bieska would have to waive his NMC, but the Flyers have a open protection spot for a dman in the expansion draft.

Then the Ducks get $4m in cap space to help extend Lindholm.

 

[Trolfoli]

I understand the cost, which is why Fowler is included. Also, an OS is still not a threat because teams don't do it. If they wanted to, they would have done it when we had 3.4 mil in cap space left.

So the Sharks didn't threaten to offersheet anyone last year? Just doesn't happen? Okay.

Moving Fowler with a cap dump? Say Stoner... that's 7M. How many teams have that kind of cash? That is also going to greatly cut into any return for Fowler.

 

[Maukkis]

What about a trade where the Flyers send MDZ to a team like Winnipeg that could use a top 4 LHD for a 2nd, and Anaheim trades us Bieska + 2nd for a 7th. Obviously, Bieska would have to waive his NMC, but the Flyers have a open protection spot for a dman in the expansion draft.

Then the Ducks get $4m in cap space to help extend Lindholm.

MDZ and Sanheim, that is. You're not getting Trouba for just MDZ, who just happens to be injured now.

 

[Curufinwe]

MDZ and Sanheim, that is. You're not getting Trouba for just MDZ, who just happens to be injured now.

No Trouba.

Just MDZ for a 2nd. You even could make it conditional on him playing 50+ games.

 

[dracom]

So the Sharks didn't threaten to offersheet anyone last year? Just doesn't happen? Okay.

Moving Fowler with a cap dump? Say Stoner... that's 7M. How many teams have that kind of cash? That is also going to greatly cut into any return for Fowler.

Did it happen? no. No one is going to OS Lindholm. People really need to get over OS, GMs just don't do follow through it.

Though I'm guessing you're still wanting the Kings to OS him with their very little cap space.

 

[robbieboy3686]

Fowler gets traded, then stoner with some retention, and we are golden, did Nate Thompson money not come off the books? And as some have stated, due to our situation , doesn't mean Fowler gets crap value coming back, I would say the situation might get us a lower draft pick back, but still the same top ELC type of player anyways.

 

[Trolfoli]

Did it happen? no. No one is going to OS Lindholm. People really need to get over OS, GMs just don't do follow through it.

Though I'm guessing you're still wanting the Kings to OS him with their very little cap space.

Hell yeah! I'd love to offersheet Lindholm. Get a Martinez Trade to WPG lined up and fire off an offersheet.

You're right the Sharks didn't end up offersheeting anyone last year, but it forced moves to happen.

Signing Rakell first means they don't have the money to sign Lindholm. If they get an offersheet today they have 7 days to pay some team to take their bad salaries. This will hurt returns.

 

[caliamad]

I don't think ducks will move fowler. I believe there was a short window during the draft that if they could have gotten a top 10 pick and a roster player they would have done it. Now no way.

I expect depres or stoner to be moved shortly.