Not sure if I'd go as far as donut allowance, but I would do a beer bet next time you're in the area. I still owe Sens one but that's just a matter of him contacting me or me contacting him for a time to grab one.
Normally I'd be right there with you, screaming up and down the main board that "this is JR, he doesn't draft dmen in the first". And up until these past two drafts that's been true, but I don't know if something changed or what but now if a dman is clearly the BPA we'll take him. I think we had Murphy somewhere around #5 on our board two drafts ago, and before the Staal trade JR's guy at the draft was Reilly. I don't know if this is a realization by JR that the team NEEDS to build from the net out anymore, or simply a change in philosophy after seeing the success of guys like Doughty and our own Faulk despite their age.
I also think that our scouting as well as basically everyone in the hockey world thinks Jones is the clear cut #1 pick right now. So yes, I'd be willing to bet a beer, that if we select #1 or wherever and he's there, that Jones would be our pick. Not sure if I'd go as far on Nurse, Pullock, or the others due to players like Barkov and Monahan that might also be on the board.