OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: No 3peat for the Swifts

[Empoleon8771]

I'm kind of in between those two strategies. Use the 1st rounder on the DL, sign one of those WR in free agency, and attack the RB position with pick 52. Maybe take a flier on a WR on day 3 (Jack Bech, Senior Bowl MVP) but I think the weakness of this years class compared to the FA group is notable.

I think this is reasonable as well. But that comes back to this question, is the difference between a RB in the 1st and 2nd larger or smaller than the difference between a DL in the 1st and 2nd? If the drop off from Jeanty to a round 2 RB is smaller than the drop off from a R1 DL to a R2 DL, I think you go DL. But this draft is also very deep at the DL, so I don't know if that's the case.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I think this is reasonable as well. But that comes back to this question, is the difference between a RB in the 1st and 2nd larger or smaller than the difference between a DL in the 1st and 2nd? If the drop off from Jeanty to a round 2 RB is smaller than the drop off from a R1 DL to a R2 DL, I think you go DL. But this draft is also very deep at the DL, so I don't know if that's the case.

I think rb is 4th on the draft list

 

[Peat]

I think this is reasonable as well. But that comes back to this question, is the difference between a RB in the 1st and 2nd larger or smaller than the difference between a DL in the 1st and 2nd? If the drop off from Jeanty to a round 2 RB is smaller than the drop off from a R1 DL to a R2 DL, I think you go DL. But this draft is also very deep at the DL, so I don't know if that's the case.

That hinges on Jeanty being there and everything promised. If it's RB2, or if the last minute tape reveals big holes in Jeanty's game, it's a very different question.

 

[WickedWrister]

I think this is reasonable as well. But that comes back to this question, is the difference between a RB in the 1st and 2nd larger or smaller than the difference between a DL in the 1st and 2nd? If the drop off from Jeanty to a round 2 RB is smaller than the drop off from a R1 DL to a R2 DL, I think you go DL. But this draft is also very deep at the DL, so I don't know if that's the case.

The combine + pro days could reorient this but I feel like the Tier 1 at those positions is Ashton Jeanty and Mason Graham. Or at least those guys feel like the consensus best at their respective positions. Tier 2 DL are Kenneth Grant (Michigan), Walter Nolen (Miss), maybe Derrick Harmon (Oregon). My guess is that those guys go before there's a run on RB's in the 2nd round just due to positional scarcity/value. And there's like 4-5 Tier 2 RB's depending on who you listen to.

 

[Shaftception]

Long writeup incoming, apologize for the spam.

So I understand the reasoning some are using not just here but in discussions elsewhere too to justify taking a runningback in this upcoming draft's first round, specifically Jeanty, but really any runningback in the first round of any draft.

For me though, even if a runningback somehow fell to them who was the next coming of Saquon, let's do a little bit of extra math on this scenario.

First, and by FAR the most obvious point, they do not even have a solid plan for any QB on this roster as of this moment and very likely at least for the upcoming season. LET ALONE having one for acquiring a QB that is capable of outperforming the current big 4 in the AFC, who you are more than likely going to have to go through at least one if not multiple each year for the forseeable future, let alone whoever else may potentially emerge into the elite tier over that same time period.

Said QB is going to be very difficult to acquire, and will likely require quite a bit of luck to do so, especially if this team is going to refuse to tank a season to acquire a high enough draft pick to naturally select one of the top prospects in any upcoming draft. If you're one to argue they can trade up in a given draft for a QB they really like, regardless of draft position, I'd then question why you'd be comfortable using a 1st round pick on a luxury position like runningback when it could be far more valuable in such a trade for by far the most important position on a football team.

So, lets now be beyond generous in predicting that they somehow do get lucky enough and somehow acquire the next Ben in the next couple years. For this scenario we're also ignoring either the amount of assets the pick required to attain (remember they don't tank) or the amount of luck it required should they acquire said QB in a scenario where the next Rodgers or Lamar were to fortuitously drop to them. What are the chances this team specifically, with all it's disfunction over the last half decade plus, is going to in short order start competing for championships as quickly as Ben did, or say Burrow, Mahomes, etc. Especially when considering all those roadblocks are still in the way and will be for many years still to come.

In order to justify taking a runningback now with a first round pick, which gives you 4 years of control + 5th year option + franchise tag options for further years, how quickly are you realistically expecting this team to find the next franchise QB, capable of realistically competing with said other elite QB's in the AFC, let alone those in the NFC past that, in the necessary short amount of time (~5 years as of now), to justify taking a runningback in this draft who will theoretically still be on the team and supposedly producing at a level justifying a first round selection now by then?

And all that isn't even considering the coaching staff competence. Tomlin will presumably still be around until the end of his next contract, if not beyond it. Smith will be here another year, Austin, etc. Are we going to argue this team is going to miraculously change its ways and start hiring competent coordinators all of a sudden as well? How many years until that happens?

To me, there's just too many obvious unreliable variables in this equation that would have to come up aces relatively all at the same time to make such a selection worth it. That is just not at all a realistic expectation to justify a non-important position like runningback to use the most valuable pick in a draft on. For most teams that is, but especially in the Steelers current state.

To recap, for me to agree with the reasoning for drafting a runningback in the first round of this draft, I would have to have confidence this team is going to acquire however way an elite enough QB to defeat Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar, Allen, etc. in the playoffs (so at least lets say Hurts tier? Who himself needed a hell of a roster built around him) within the time period encompassing the years of control over said runningback before they hit free agency or the franchise tag becomes unfeasible.

Past that, how many runningbacks in a given year even play on 2nd/3rd contracts and actually perform to a level worthy of them? I'd wager a handful at best. So that's another variable you have to be counting on to make this decision worth it, the runningback chosen now, must be performing at a level that would even justify a 2nd contract ~5 years from now, let alone also hitting a homerun on a QB at the same time.

What are the chances of both these scenarios occurring, on top of whatever coaching staff improvements need also be made in this same time span, all before said runningback hits the inevitable wall and begins to decline, to make using a first round pick on a runningback worth it?

Not very likely at all to me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think rb is 4th on the draft list

They'd be morons to put a RB that low on their priorities when their game is as run focused as it is.

You're not emulating the Eagles with a 4th round RB.

 

[xlm34]

It seems like a good bet that they’ll draft a a DL early, but I’m not ruling out them making a splash there in FA. Milton Williams was a Weidl draft pick and would make a lot of sense. He’ll be expensive but they kind of have to start spending some cash either this year or next to keep compliant with the cap rules.

It wouldn’t preclude them from also taking a DL early, but it would give them a little flexibility to take a guy like Jeanty if he falls.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Henderson may be there. I have a feeling he goes in the top half of the 2nd.

Jordan James definitely would be there, but drafting him in the 2nd would be a reach. He is rated in the 4th-UDFA range.

Yeah that's why the ellipses before the round number. When depends on which. Ranking is obviously important but I'm more interested in type. I'm not sure how I feel about Neal or Sampson.

 

[End of Line]

RBs I'd like to see here most -

1. Jeanty - I think he has potential to be a Saquon/LT style do it all back. He has some ball security concerns, but I think the good outweighs the bad. Curtis Martin figured it out. Not only can he be the focus in the offense, he's also a super good dude from what I have read and he speaks really well. He'd be a franchise face.

2. JD Giddens - He looks so much faster than what he's clocked at. When he runs I will be his 20 yard split is really good and his 20-40 is dogshit. He can be used in all facets of the offense. Hasn't missed time.

3. Raheim Sanders - I actually love this guy. I think he'd be super fun to watch here. Specimen of a player and plays in a Steeler manner. If he runs in the 4.4s with a good split at the combine, I'd very seriously look into drafting him.

4. Omarion Hampton - I like how he runs and he's fast. He will punish dudes and at 220 he can hold up. He's a lot like Najee but with a bit more pep. I don't see a step up from Najee here.

5. Quinshon Judkins - If he runs quick at the combine or his pro day, he's probably a guy I'd look at. He actually does look a little like LBell at MSU, but he's not as smart, so our zone blocking scheme would probably help him. I don't think his lack of acceleration will hurt him though. He knows how to use his line, and with how big and athletic our line is going to be, he could be a real treat to watch here.

6. Kaleb Johson - I'm kind of split on him. Sometimes I see a David Montgomery and sometimes I see Najee. He's not fast, he's not that explosive, but he has vision and patience, but if he doesn't have anything he runs into the back of his linemen.

7. Treyvon Henderson - I love how he runs. His skillset is actually my favorite in this class, I think. He could be the next game breaker in the NFL if he can stay healthy. He sort of reminds me of Willie Parker, and OSU fans can chime in - yardages: 1, -3, 2,-7, 45. He dances and gets caught up.

8. Cam Skattebo - Never bet against guys like him.

9. Dylan Simpson - He'd be a nice change to Warren. The juice we honestly have been missing for quite some time. Can always take it to the house. Small but can run through guys. Seems to be a really good route runner and has some savviness. I like him, but 190 pound RBs scare me anymore. He fumbles a shit load and he can't pass protect, so there is 0% chance we take him. Fun player though.

10. Devin Neal - I'm not a fan, but Tomlin is going to love him.

One thing that Henderson has is an extra gear when out in open field.




And he’s great at picking up the blitz

 

[Empoleon8771]

The combine + pro days could reorient this but I feel like the Tier 1 at those positions is Ashton Jeanty and Mason Graham. Or at least those guys feel like the consensus best at their respective positions. Tier 2 DL are Kenneth Grant (Michigan), Walter Nolen (Miss), maybe Derrick Harmon (Oregon). My guess is that those guys go before there's a run on RB's in the 2nd round just due to positional scarcity/value. And there's like 4-5 Tier 2 RB's depending on who you listen to.

Yeah from looking at NFL Draft Buzz, I would be pretty fine with drafting a RB in round 2 if Henderson fell to their pick. That website has him projected to go at around 54th overall, so right near the Steelers pick. After him looks to be Sampson (62nd overall), Judkins (70th overall) and Neal (84th overall).

Just purely based on draft rankings, I'm inclined to think Grant or Nolen in round 1 and Henderson in round 2 is probably the best option. That said, I don't kknow how they'd fit in the Steelers DL (especially because they'd be replacing Ogunjobi in the near term) to firmly make a statement on the DL. I thought Benton was a NT and it looks like these guys are all listed as NT as well.

Even if you're talking as a long-term Heyward replacement, wouldn't you need someone capable of playing DE?

 

[bigdaddyk88]

They'd be morons to put a RB that low on their priorities when their game is as run focused as it is.

You're not emulating the Eagles with a 4th round RB.

They aren’t going to have the line or the weapons in place to do what the eagles did signing Barkley. They had swift and sanders before.
The Steelers have Warren to be the 1b. You can get Irving Williams type round 4

 

[Empoleon8771]

They aren’t going to have the line or the weapons in place to do what the eagles did signing Barkley. They had swift and sanders before.
The Steelers have Warren to be the 1b. You can get Irving Williams type round 4

Like I said, they'd be morons to put such a low priority on a RB with how focused the team's offense is on the rushing game.

It's also funny that you mention Swift and Sanders, both of those guys were 2nd rounders taken 35th and 53rd respectively. The Eagles never relied on round 4 RBs to be successful.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Like I said, they'd be morons to put such a low priority on a RB with how focused the team's offense is on the rushing game.

It's also funny that you mention Swift and Sanders, both of those guys were 2nd rounders taken 35th and 53rd respectively. The Eagles never relied on round 4 RBs to be successful.

I agree it should be higher in the pecking order. I think if they get a wr and 2 cb in free agency then RB goes up to 2. We got Bell in round 2 and Connor round 3. Kinda why i would have picked up Najee option to have a real rb 2.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

One thing that Henderson has is an extra gear when out in open field.




And he’s great at picking up the blitz

I covet this kid so much. And I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm with several tactics - 1) the odds he is able to be drafted where we'd like to draft him and thus ends up somewhere else where I don't want to root for him; 2) the fact that I live in Columbus (although I am not an OSU fan) but I could be unfairly swayed; 3) the fact I've been wrong about a couple OSU backs in the past; 4) whether or not he, no matter how good he is, can succeed in this offense.

 

[xlm34]

I think this is reasonable as well. But that comes back to this question, is the difference between a RB in the 1st and 2nd larger or smaller than the difference between a DL in the 1st and 2nd? If the drop off from Jeanty to a round 2 RB is smaller than the drop off from a R1 DL to a R2 DL, I think you go DL. But this draft is also very deep at the DL, so I don't know if that's the case.

This is a good way of thinking about it. You’re either looking at something like:

Jeanty + Darius Alexander

Or

Harmon/Grant + Kaleb Johnson

I honestly don’t think either is a bad option. I again highly doubt Jeanty is available but I just don’t know if I want to see them pass up a talent like him. People talk about roster construction, but if the OL lives up to the investment made in it they’d be building a nice ecosystem for a QB to develop in.

 

[Peat]

There's a reason the Eagles went from Swift and Sanders to Barkley. I'm not high on draft a RB high because I don't think this team is set up to take advantage of it, but since they do think they're ready it makes sense for them to look at the upgrade. Same reason Detroit went from whoever the hell they had again to Sonic and Knuckles.

That said, I don't kknow how they'd fit in the Steelers DL (especially because they'd be replacing Ogunjobi in the near term) to firmly make a statement on the DL. I thought Benton was a NT and it looks like these guys are all listed as NT as well.

Even if you're talking as a long-term Heyward replacement, wouldn't you need someone capable of playing DE?

Apparently Khan was talking up Benton's versatility in his press conferences.

 

[T1K]

I’d be shocked if Jeanty falls to our pick. Seems like he’s too coveted and may actually go higher than people anticipate.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Benton is probably better off as a DE than a NT. I think you need Cams replacement and Benton backup. If we are going with the eagles model then we need to be able to rotate 4 pass rushers often

 

[End of Line]

I covet this kid so much. And I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm with several tactics - 1) the odds he is able to be drafted where we'd like to draft him and thus ends up somewhere else where I don't want to root for him; 2) the fact that I live in Columbus (although I am not an OSU fan) but I could be unfairly swayed; 3) the fact I've been wrong about a couple OSU backs in the past; 4) whether or not he, no matter how good he is, can succeed in this offense.

Number 4 is where I’m worried if he’d fit because this offense is still stuck in 2005. Dylan Sampson would probably be a better fit tbh. I’m also one of the few that doesn’t Jeanty drafted since it’d be a waste of a pick and I just don’t he’d be a great pro.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Apparently Khan was talking up Benton's versatility in his press conferences.

Yeah if Benton can slide to LDE, I think they're fine taking a NT. That said, if I'm using a 1st rounder on an DL, I may prefer that 1st rounder just be capable of playing LDE in the first place.

Either way, I think I've come around to a DL in round 1 and a RB in round 2 and using UFA to sign a WR. That's not saying I'd be mad if they drafted Egbuka, but I think it would probably not be the most appropriate move.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is a good way of thinking about it. You’re either looking at something like:

Jeanty + Darius Alexander

Or

Harmon/Grant + Kaleb Johnson

I honestly don’t think either is a bad option. I again highly doubt Jeanty is available but I just don’t know if I want to see them pass up a talent like him. People talk about roster construction, but if the OL lives up to the investment made in it they’d be building a nice ecosystem for a QB to develop in.

If Henderson is still available at their 2nd, or they trade up 5-10 slots to draft Henderson with their 2nd, I'd be really happy coming out of the draft with Harmon/Grant and Henderson as their top-2 picks. That said, if Jeanty is as good as he's hyped, he'd also be a gamechanger for this offense.

This also kinda goes back to the whole Najee debate, has their running game been lacking (in terms of Y/A) because of Harris being bad or the OL being bad? If the OL is the primary issue, drafting a RB in round 2 may not solve your running game issues and you may want to get as good of a RB as possible. If Najee was the primary issue, then getting a good 2nd round RB should still yield a terrific running game and drafting Jeanty in round 1 would probably be overkill for what they need.

 

[Peat]

Yeah if Benton can slide to LDE, I think they're fine taking a NT. That said, if I'm using a 1st rounder on an DL, I may prefer that 1st rounder just be capable of playing LDE in the first place.

Either way, I think I've come around to a DL in round 1 and a RB in round 2 and using UFA to sign a WR. That's not saying I'd be mad if they drafted Egbuka, but I think it would probably not be the most appropriate move.

All I ask is that the dude is a three down player. Benton is a NT who can still rush in a sub-package. If the new guy is like that, good enough, particularly if they are genuinely imposing and space eating. I think if the NFL is sliding back towards size and physicality, that sort of NT becomes important again.

I might prefer a guy who is more of a DE than a NT, but at that level of granularity I hope they just let the board lead them. Egbuka, a CB, hell even Starks or some other S, Jeanty... just add a dude. The strength of the DL class has my eyes fixed there first and foremost, but however it rolls.

 

[xlm34]

All I ask is that the dude is a three down player. Benton is a NT who can still rush in a sub-package. If the new guy is like that, good enough, particularly if they are genuinely imposing and space eating. I think if the NFL is sliding back towards size and physicality, that sort of NT becomes important again.

I might prefer a guy who is more of a DE than a NT, but at that level of granularity I hope they just let the board lead them. Egbuka, a CB, hell even Starks or some other S, Jeanty... just add a dude. The strength of the DL class has my eyes fixed there first and foremost, but however it rolls.

1000x this. A NT with no pass rush ability would be a way bigger no no to me than RB in round one.