Buffalo Bills The offseason begins

[Husko]

Is anyone willing to take on the mock draft polling?

Friends, the nfl draft is less than 2 months away. Due to a number of personal and professional things (2 trials in the next 2 months, 10 day trip to Mexico in March, and then prepping for our first child to arrive), I really don't think I'm a good candidate to run our mock draft polling venture this year. But I really don't want it to die! Would anyone be up for taking it over? I'm willing to help set it up, get it going, show you how I did it, or just let you run the whole thing however you want! The obligation is really just putting up about one poll a day. Let me know if you're interested! (or just start running it now!)

 

[Jim Bob]

One thing Beane takes umbridge with is the lack of clarity on number of responses. So I tried to glean how many responses there might be based on the percentages reported (are they all divisibles of a certain number?). The answer: no. They're all over the places. Which leads me to believe players can choose which questions to respond to and which to leave blank, which I would say is poor methodology if you're going to report percentage-based answers. I do think the big picture answer is a lot of players participated, though, specifically because of the question on cold tub space, which yielded 98% saying they have enough. The only way you could get to 98% is if 50 players participated and 49 said yes (or some number close to those and rounded, like 48/49 or 50/51). All that to say, it's a substantial number.

I do strongly disagree with him saying it's not great feedback because players are saying it anonymously but not in the building. That means players don't feel comfortable complaining to you, not that it's not an actual problem. Big difference.

I do agree with one thing:

They need to follow up with the players and see what can be done and what are the real complaints.

That also means that they need to create a culture where it is safe for players to give hard feedback. Hopefully that is in place and they can do stuff to improve things.

There are some things that I wouldn't take seriously. But, I do think that travel can affect their ability to perform on the road. So, that should be looked at.

 

[TehDoak]

I do agree with one thing:

They need to follow up with the players and see what can be done and what are the real complaints.

That also means that they need to create a culture where it is safe for players to give hard feedback. Hopefully that is in place and they can do stuff to improve things.

There are some things that I wouldn't take seriously. But, I do think that travel can affect their ability to perform on the road. So, that should be looked at.

I think the issue is that they don't have a private jet and just charter commercial planes. There are what....24 first class seats on most of the plane? And the rest is just shit? Especially if you are 6 foot, 300 lb plus?

Sounds like a market opportunity for someone to make a private charter plane company with a fleet of 5 or 6 planes with 100 comfortable seats and lease them to teams season by season.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I've done a few mocks this morning, and a trade down into the mid-30s (second round) would yield a 4th rounder and not really effect the players available to the Bills too much. I've gotten Tyleik Williams every time. That could help the Bills trade up out of the 4th and get their 3rd back.

I've been able to get a real quality player at 56 every time. Stewart, who they interviewed, has been there each time.

A trade down from 62 has also gotten be Phillips or Walker each time. Gets the Bills another 4th, about mid-round.

Using Brugler's board, some bottom of the 3rd types who could be there for a trade up are Chris Paul, Trey Amos, Isaiah Bond, and Cobee Bryant.

If Beane went all Belichick in this draft, he could get this:

2-35ish) Tyleik Williams, DT Ohio State (trade down and add around pick 112)
56) Josaiah Stewart, DE Michigan
3-70ish) Jordan Phillips, DT Maryland (trade down and add around pick 128)
3-95) Trey Amos, CB Mississippi (trade 108 and 128)
3-97) Chris Paul, LB Mississippi (trade 112 and 131)

That would be like adding a shot of nitro to the defense. And if Beane held off on a Garrett move until after June 1st, it's pretty amazing.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[ValJamesDuex]

The Franchise tag for RB's will be 13.2M this season per OBL in case anyone was wondering

 

[Husko]

I really wish the chiefs would be punished more for cheap ownership moves like franchising a guard.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[Jim Bob]

The Franchise tag for RB's will be 13.2M this season per OBL in case anyone was wondering

Franchise, Transition and RFA Tenders | Over the Cap

Franchise, Transition and RFA Tenders | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

Exhibit A that RBs are not valued in the NFL: The franchise tag number for RBs is the lowest for any offensive or defensive position group.

 

[Zman5778]

I really wish the chiefs would be punished more for cheap ownership moves like franchising a guard.

How is that cheap? The franchise tag doesn't distinguish between OT and OG and C. They're all OL. So Smith is going to be the highest-paid guard by a couple of million next year...and would be the 5th-highest OT if he played there.

 

[Husko]

How is that cheap? The franchise tag doesn't distinguish between OT and OG and C. They're all OL. So Smith is going to be the highest-paid guard by a couple of million next year...and would be the 5th-highest OT if he played there.

It's cheap because it uses up a lot of cap in an amount equal to the amount of cash you are spending. Think of it this way:

FT: 24 million cap / 24 million cash
Dickerson's extension year 1: 6 million cap / 21 million cash.
Lidstrom's extension year 1: 14 million cap / 36 million cash

If you take for granted that most teams will spend somewhere around all their cap any given year, anytime a team is paying out cash to cap in close to even numbers, they're saving the owner money. If the Eagles give out four Dickerson contracts with the 24 million in cap space that the Chiefs are using on the Smith FT, that's 84 million in cash on the same cap space that the Chiefs are spending 24 million in cash on.

The Hunts have always been one of the cheapest spenders in the league.

(And in this case, as you point out, their cheapness is causing them to pay way above market rate in CAP for a guard)

 

[Der Jaeger]

View attachment 981987

I replicated this on Spotrac. If you don't release anyone but Miller, you still get $64M prior to the draft. $61M after including the draft pool in the top 51.

I listened to Daniel Jeremiah with Colin Cowherd today. Jeremiah said that there are drafts you are just looking to get starters. He said this was one of those drafts. If Beane can take a swing at Garrett using a post June 1st trade (which works better for the Browns), then this would be a great draft to get starters in and the Bills have the picks to make it work.

Jeremiah had some great quotes in the interview. He said sometimes you shop at the toy store and sometimes you shop at the hardware store. To build a contender, you have to go to the hardware store first. I think this draft would be a great hardware store draft.

 

[Selanne00008]

I replicated this on Spotrac. If you don't release anyone but Miller, you still get $64M prior to the draft. $61M after including the draft pool in the top 51.

I listened to Daniel Jeremiah with Colin Cowherd today. Jeremiah said that there are drafts you are just looking to get starters. He said this was one of those drafts. If Beane can take a swing at Garrett using a post June 1st trade (which works better for the Browns), then this would be a great draft to get starters in and the Bills have the picks to make it work.

Jeremiah had some great quotes in the interview. He said sometimes you shop at the toy store and sometimes you shop at the hardware store. To build a contender, you have to go to the hardware store first. I think this draft would be a great hardware store draft.

How many new starters do we need, if say we landed Garrett? Would hate to see some 5th/6th rounders get stolen from the practice squad.

I still think trading current picks for a future higher pick to help us to NOT have NO picks in the top 3 rounds next year would help (sorry for the double negative).

Or we at least consolidate/wheel and deal so our 10 picks this draft end up being 7ish.

 

[Der Jaeger]

How many new starters do we need, if say we landed Garrett? Would hate to see some 5th/6th rounders get stolen from the practice squad.

I still think trading current picks for a future higher pick to help us to NOT have NO picks in the top 3 rounds next year would help (sorry for the double negative).

Or we at least consolidate/wheel and deal so our 10 picks this draft end up being 7ish.

Quick roster work, with what I mentioned earlier and these moves:

- 2026 1st, 2027 1st for Garrett (or some similar deal, the deal details aren't the point here as long as it's a post June 1 trade)

- The draft wheeling and dealing I did to get Tyleik Williams, Josaiah Stewart, Jordan Phillips, Trey Amos, and Chris Paul. That would leave the Bills with 2 5th rounders and 3 6th rounders.

- Free agent signings: Hollins, Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Morris, Ferguson

Rookies in italics
QB; Allen, Trubisky
RB: Cook, Johnson, Davis, Gilliam
TE: Kincaid, Knox, Morris
OT: Dawkins, Brown, Van Demark, Grable
G: Edwards, Torrence, Anderson
C: McGovern, SVPG
WR: Shakir, Hollins, Coleman, Samuel

DE: Garrett, Rousseau, Epenesa, Solomon, Stewart
DT: Oliver, Jones, Carter, Tyleik Williams, Jordan Phillips
LB: Milano, Bernard, Williams, Spector, UIofoshio, Paul
NB: Johnson, Lewis
CB: Bernard, Elam, Ingram, Amos
S: Rapp, Bishop

ST: Bass, Martin, Ferguson, Codrington

That's 50 with 5 picks to go. And the Bills would likely need to make those 2 safeties and a receiver to make the roster work. Making a few 2025 for 2026, Jason Botterill style trades might work. Or calling up buddy Joe Schoen in NY and working a few picks-for-player deals.

(Don't kill the details, just showing what the overall roster would look like going into later rounds, in terms of roster spots)

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Players the Bills have met with at the combine (will update as info becomes available).

1. Landon Jackson DE Arkansas

2. Kenneth Grant DT Michigan

3. Josiah Stewart DE Michigan

4. Alfred Collins DT Texas

5. Chris Paul JR LB Mississippi

6. Mike Green DE Marshall

7. Walter Nolan DT Mississippi

8. Jamaree Caldwell DT Oregon

9. Trey Amos CB Mississippi

10. Will Johnson CB Michigan

Isn't Will Johnson likely to go top 5 (or top 10 at worst)? Feels like an odd choice to meet with.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Players the Bills have met with at the combine (will update as info becomes available).

1. Landon Jackson DE Arkansas

2. Kenneth Grant DT Michigan

3. Josiah Stewart DE Michigan

4. Alfred Collins DT Texas

5. Chris Paul JR LB Mississippi

6. Mike Green DE Marshall

7. Walter Nolan DT Mississippi

8. Jamaree Caldwell DT Oregon

9. Trey Amos CB Mississippi

10. Will Johnson CB Michigan

11. Jaylen Reed S Penn State

12. Alijah Clark S Syracuse

13. Andrew Mukuba S Texas

14. Malaki Starks S Georgia

15. Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina

16. Denzel Burke CB Ohio State

17. Mello Dotson CB Kansas