The New and really Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[notbias]

But they were paid by the inexperienced GM like they were elite of the elite. Unfortunate franchise altering mistake.

Just to put into context what the experienced GM did

Marner's contract was equal to Zaitsev + Marleau.

Even if you believe Marner would have been paid more fairly (probably 9.5 is his correct hit), the extra 1 million is not going anywhere useful based on the history of Lou signings.

 

[hotpaws]

Just to put into context what the experienced GM did

Marner's contract was equal to Zaitsev + Marleau.

Even if you believe Marner would have been paid more fairly (probably 9.5 is his correct hit), the extra 1 million is not going anywhere useful based on the history of Lou signings.

are you talking about the experienced GM who took over a bad team and has 5 playoff series win and a play-in series win in 3 seasons compared to our inexperienced GM who took over a franchise regular season point record team and hasn't won any type of post season series ?

and just to refresh your memory on a few more of Lou's signings

Kadri
Riely
Andy
Brown
Hyman

all signed what turned out to be team friendly deals

 

[Dekes For Days]

About the comeback, it's something that is very unlikely to happen more than 1 out of a 1000 times.

It being rare doesn't change the fact that it happened.

they were badly outplayed that game and then badly outplayed in game 5.

They weren't though.

And again, this wasn't a very good team they lost to.

Had the same number of points as us, for the record. Best defensive team in the league.

 

[Pookie]

Analytics are about improving your team and increasing your chances, not about guaranteeing success in every 4-7 game sample, regardless of context. Nothing does that.

Weird.

for years teams watched video tape and player tendencies and found success in good game plans.

you don’t think stats should complement this in any way?

 

[notbias]

are you talking about the experienced GM who took over a bad team and has 5 playoff series win and a play-in series win in 3 seasons compared to our inexperienced GM who took over a franchise regular season point record team and hasn't won any type of post season series ?

and just to refresh your memory on a few more of Lou's signings

Kadri
Riely
Andy
Brown
Hyman

all signed what turned out to be team friendly deals

What did Lou do here? It is too bad he could not use any of that great franchise turnaround to do anything meaningful here.

Were they team-friendly upon signing because otherwise, you need to thank the development staff for exceeding the signings?

You may need to go dig into what those players did before signing if you think they were all steals.

Also, Andersen's contract turned into a negative for 2/5 seasons, I don't know if I'd say that contract is a real win.

 

[notbias]

Weird.

for years teams watched video tape and player tendencies and found success in good game plans.

you don’t think stats should complement this in any way?

Teams do both.. did teams count shot attempts when they watched those games?

Those are statistics.

I really don't know why people dismiss analytics, they have always been used, teams are just trying to expand their use.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Weird. for years teams watched video tape and player tendencies and found success in good game plans. you don’t think stats should complement this in any way?

I don't know what you're even trying to say. Do you somehow think utilizing analytics means teams stop watching game tape or something? You can still lose a series in the playoffs despite having a "good game plan", for the record.

 

[deprw]

Well Dubas does speak publicly about the use of data. So...

The spirit of the question is whether he is any good at the thing he professes to be an expert on.

You claim he doesn’t run the numbers. Even if true, he assembles the team... takes in the information and makes directional decisions.

These decisions haven’t achieved any success in the post season. These are the same results with a team lead by Phil Kessel and Vesa Toskala.

And he probably is very good person to speak about it. Though your claim was that we don't know if our department is any good, because we haven't seen the results. Like said no one discloses those results, because that would give out valuable information to our rivals, so you don't go into media bragging about your advanced stats departments findings.

If we utilize our resources wisely we should have pretty competent data-analytics resource in our hands, because we have enough money to really dig into it. It doesn't mean that you get instant results that are measurable. About year or two ago we found out that Hunters and Lamoriellos scouting was big bogus. We'll see in the future if Dubas has done something to it and there you probably have some kind of implication if our analytics are any good. In that business it takes time to find the right questions to ask.

You don't have any insight to pinpoint any failure to analytics, so I don't think you should do it. Results are results, but you can't say it's analytics that are lacking. It can be players, coach and GM you have some substance on, because you can watch games and debate about trades etc.

In sports management I think worst mistake to make is being shortsighted. If Benning has some kind of trust left so should have Dubas and Shanahan, who has really made this organization credible after PPP and Burke era. That we develop our analytics and try to find competitive advantage tells me that we aren't that cashgrab anymore that we were to teachers etc.

I'll trust our approach and hope in some way we continue with it, even if with new personnel eventually.

 

[Pookie]

Teams do both.. did teams count shot attempts when they watched those games?

Those are statistics.

I really don't know why people dismiss analytics, they have always been used, teams are just trying to expand their use.

for the record, I’m not discounting them at all.

what I am asking is whether there is any proof that Dubas can either use them effectively or build a team that can.

so far, no one can answer that to the affirmative.

can you?

 

[egd27]

What did Lou do here? It is too bad he could not use any of that great franchise turnaround to do anything meaningful here.

It's unbelievable to me that people can be this oblivious to differences in the organization between the completion of the 2014 season and the completion of the 2018 season.

 

[The CyNick]

Just to put into context what the experienced GM did

Marner's contract was equal to Zaitsev + Marleau.

Even if you believe Marner would have been paid more fairly (probably 9.5 is his correct hit), the extra 1 million is not going anywhere useful based on the history of Lou signings.

Again, the Dubas supporters will always reach back to "yeah but Lou did this...". And they can't just say move X was positive or negative.

If you want to start a defend Lou moves thread, I'm happy to jump in on that one.

 

[ToneDog]

It's unbelievable to me that people can be this oblivious to differences in the organization between the completion of the 2014 season and the completion of the 2018 season.

Lou had this team trending in the right direction until Shanny pulled the plug on him after two years in order to hand the keys over to a rookie who did not gel with his coach. Amazing how some fans choose to criticize a successful GM in order to defend a GM who is clearly in over his head. It won't be much longer though.

 

[The CyNick]

It being rare doesn't change the fact that it happened.

They weren't though.

Had the same number of points as us, for the record. Best defensive team in the league.

If you play a game and are down 3-0 with 4minutes left would you say you played a good game?

Spoiler, the answer is you would most likely say you played awful.

The Leafs caught lightning in a bottle, and ultimately won, so great, you take wins any way you can get them. But they did not play a good 56 minutes and got lucky in the last 4.

Everything came out in the wash when they were dummied in game five. Columbus proved their dominance.

 

[Gabriel426]

Weird.

for years teams watched video tape and player tendencies and found success in good game plans.

you don’t think stats should complement this in any way?

But those teams got goalies to cast voodoo on our Leafs. Lol

 

[notbias]

Again, the Dubas supporters will always reach back to "yeah but Lou did this...". And they can't just say move X was positive or negative.

If you want to start a defend Lou moves thread, I'm happy to jump in on that one.

Well, when people constantly bring up experience for failures/successes it is really easy to point to someone like Lou and ask why there were no successes, this disagreement started with someone pointing out Dubas is inexperienced.

 

[notbias]

It's unbelievable to me that people can be this oblivious to differences in the organization between the completion of the 2014 season and the completion of the 2018 season.

It's unbelievable to me that people can be this oblivious to the obvious lack of success under Lou based on their criteria of playoffs being the only thing that matters and then point to Lou as having progressed the team somehow.

 

[Zybalto]

for the record, I’m not discounting them at all.

what I am asking is whether there is any proof that Dubas can either use them effectively or build a team that can.

so far, no one can answer that to the affirmative.

can you?

I'm using the coaching change as the barometer to calculate the difference in philosophies. Gonna use a mix of regular and advanced stats and show NHL ranking.

2017(The start of the season in which the Leafs were a contender)-Babcocks dismissal


Team Offence:

Shots on Goal: 8th highest in the NHL
Scoring Chances For: 1st in the NHL
High Danger Chances For: 2nd highest in the NHL
Expected Goals For: 2nd highest in the NHL
Goals Scored: 2nd highest in the NHL


Team D:

Fewest Shots Against: 28th best in the NHL
Fewest Scoring Chances Against: 24th best in the NHL
Fewest High Danger Chances Against: 19th best in the NHL
Fewest Expected Goals Against: 25th best in the NHL
Goals Allowed: 19th best in the NHL


Team save%: 9th best in the NHL


Differentials:

Shot Differential: 17th best in the NHL
Scoring Chance Differential: 2nd best in the NHL
High Danger Scoring Chance Differential: 4th best in the NHL
Expected Goals Differential: 8th best in the NHL
Goal Differential: 6th best in the NHL

Babcocks Leafs were a mix of a powerhouse offence and top ten goalkeeping that made up for it's poor defensive play. Differentials are really good so you can see why they had such successful seasons.



Under Keefe so far:

Team Offence:

Shots on Goal: 7th highest in the NHL
Scoring Chances For: 1st in the NHL
High Danger Chances For: 2nd highest in the NHL
Expected Goals For: 3rd highest in the NHL
Goals Scored: Tied for 1st in the NHL


Team D:

Fewest Shots Against: 10th best in the NHL
Fewest Scoring Chances Against: 17th best in the NHL
Fewest High Danger Chances Against: 8th best in the NHL
Fewest Expected Goals Against: 6th best in the NHL
Goals Allowed: 10th best in the NHL


Team save%: 19th best in the NHL


Differentials:

Shot Differential: 6th best in the NHL
Scoring Chance Differential: 3rd best in the NHL
High Danger Scoring Chance Differential: 1st in the NHL
Expected Goals Differential: 3rd best in the NHL
Goal Differential: 5th best in the NHL


The Leafs under Keefe have kept the high powered offence numbers and have seen a dramatic change in D number though and it's not a stretch to say the Leafs are a top ten defensive team in the NHL now. People kept saying D wins championships and the Leafs have finally started doing that. Goaltending (mainly from a fading Andersen) took a steep dive under Keefe though, masking just how solid the D has become. Differentials are even better for whats becoming a perennial top 5 NHL team. Staying healthy this year, especially come playoff time will be a massive achievement of all things as the Leafs went from one of the healthier teams the previous few years to one of the teams most affected by injuries the last couple of years which may point to this team being even better than the numbers show.

I'm sure Keefe is looking at these analytics and their end results to make decisions (and this is just the tip of the iceberg) Does that answer your question somewhat?

 

[egd27]

It's unbelievable to me that people can be this oblivious to the obvious lack of success under Lou based on their criteria of playoffs being the only thing that matters and then point to Lou as having progressed the team somehow.

Just making the playoffs was significant progress.
How can you not understand or acknowledge that and have the audacity to believe you can converse intelligently about hockey?

 

[notbias]

Just making the playoffs was significant progress.
How can you not understand or acknowledge that and have the audacity to believe you can converse intelligently about hockey?

Making the playoffs was due to the insane ELCs that Lou did nothing with, Lou has made some good decisions, but he has made far more horrible ones.

Since Dubas installed his coach, the Leafs are on a 108pt pace. It is truly amazing they improved on their best season ever.

How can you not understand or acknowledge that and have the audacity to believe you can converse intelligently about hockey?

 

[Havoc]

It's unbelievable to me that people can be this oblivious to the obvious lack of success under Lou based on their criteria of playoffs being the only thing that matters and then point to Lou as having progressed the team somehow.

Don't worry. Any rationale person would agree it's easier to win with your three best players on ELC compared to your 3 best players making almost 30 million dollars. Matthews Nylander and Marner make less than 4 mil combined? Better spend 11 mil on Zaitsev and Marleau to take advantage of this. Yet people are salty Dubas spends 11 mil on a top 10 center in Tavares. Hilarious stuff man.

 

[egd27]

Making the playoffs was due to the insane ELCs that Lou did nothing with, Lou has made some good decisions, but he has made far more horrible ones.

Since Dubas installed his coach, the Leafs are on a 108pt pace. It is truly amazing they improved on their best season ever.

How can you not understand or acknowledge that and have the audacity to believe you can converse intelligently about hockey?

When they actually achieve more than 105 points over an 82 game season while playing the full NHL then they will have improved on their best season ever.

Trying to use "pace" in a 56 game season against the same 6 teams over and over again is not even remotely the same.

But at least you're consistent.

 

[notbias]

When they actually achieve more than 105 points over an 82 game season while playing the full NHL then they will have improved on their best season ever.

Trying to use "pace" in a 56 game season against the same 6 teams over and over again is not even remotely the same.

But at least you're consistent.

Better dismiss the last two playoffs too since we are dismissing the regular seasons, seems fair, and consistent.

 

[The CyNick]

Well, when people constantly bring up experience for failures/successes it is really easy to point to someone like Lou and ask why there were no successes, this disagreement started with someone pointing out Dubas is inexperienced.

Which he is and then has made moves an inexperienced GM would make. Such as bending over to players who you have control over. There are numerous bad contracts that have been signed by other GMs, but Dubas was supposed to be elite. Yet he made amateurish moves. If he had success in the NHL at least you could point to that and say he's proven. In Dubas' case there's no such track record. He's never been in charge of negotiating contracts with these levels of players. His inexperience shined through.

 

[notbias]

Which he is and then has made moves an inexperienced GM would make. Such as bending over to players who you have control over. There are numerous bad contracts that have been signed by other GMs, but Dubas was supposed to be elite. Yet he made amateurish moves. If he had success in the NHL at least you could point to that and say he's proven. In Dubas' case there's no such track record. He's never been in charge of negotiating contracts with these levels of players. His inexperience shined through.

He overpaid a single player by about 1-2 million tops, I will take that over the overpays that he had to deal with — Zaitsev, Martin, Marleau

 

[egd27]

Better dismiss the last two playoffs too since we are dismissing the regular seasons, seems fair, and consistent.

Well I've already dismissed the CBJ series.

Though the NHL had to put the results and stats in something other than the regular season, it was, in fact, a Playoff Qualifying series. So semantics aside, by losing the series they did not qualify for the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

You didn't know that either huh?