The New and really Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[ULF_55]

Well, we can debate as fans all we want but the management team doesn’t see it as a course correction to make a Sundin for Clark deal. So if the recipe doesn’t work it will naturally fall on the next management team to make that move. Until then…

I do question how their double digits performed, but is it ironic that some don't want a Sundin for Clark deal, they want a Clark for Sundin.

 

[Racer88]

Campbell played great. Our club, with a Rocket winner and a top ten scoring winger couldn't contribute one goal in three games to close the series.

Price played great in those three games. Then he continued to play great against teams that may have sent our club packing in subsequent rounds.

Jack Campbell wasn't remotely the problem anymore than Sundin watching the games in Sweden was the problem.

There's a story about Gretzky going into the Islanders room after they won their fourth Cup. Instead of seeing a party Gretzky walked into a quiet room of champions putting ice on injuries. He's stated, from that moment on he understood what was required.

Sadly, as I've mentioned countless times here, our club is waiting to truly understand how to win. And it's more likely than not going to take losing in the second round, the Conference Finals and the Cup Finals to do so.

THEN, if there's a team that's left with identity and experience, then, we can expect something great.

I hope I'm wrong.

I agree 100% that Campbell was not the problem last playoffs but some posters claim that the Leafs dominated the Habs but just got beat by opposition goaltending. Some of them claim it has been the issue the last 3 playoffs.

 

[Pookie]

Well, we can debate as fans all we want but the management team doesn’t see it as a course correction to make a Sundin for Clark deal. So if the recipe doesn’t work it will naturally fall on the next management team to make that move. Until then…

until then....

 

[The CyNick]

I agree 100% that Campbell was not the problem last playoffs but some posters claim that the Leafs dominated the Habs but just got beat by opposition goaltending. Some of them claim it has been the issue the last 3 playoffs.

When the chips were down the Leafs were badly outplayed by Habs and Campbell let in a soft backbreaking goal. They let each other down.

 

[Gabriel426]

I do question how their double digits performed, but is it ironic that some don't want a Sundin for Clark deal, they want a Clark for Sundin.

I think they don’t have a Clark on the market.
Kopitar and Toews are the closest, one is still great and the other is coming back from injury.

 

[Racer88]

When the chips were down the Leafs were badly outplayed by Habs and Campbell let in a soft backbreaking goal. They let each other down.

No question the Habs out played the Leafs in the last 3 games. This narrative that the Leafs dominated the Habs is laughable

 

[Zybalto]

I agree 100% that Campbell was not the problem last playoffs but some posters claim that the Leafs dominated the Habs but just got beat by opposition goaltending. Some of them claim it has been the issue the last 3 playoffs.

Toronto outshoots their opposition 175-132 in elimination games the last two years.

Opposition Goaltending: .943%
Leafs Goaltending: .879%

 

[The CyNick]

Maybe this new thread can bring about an answer to this question

Let’s grant that statistics have a place in the game. They can factor into personnel decisions, tactics and the like.

but it’s more than just numbers.

it’s doing something with them.

As Dubas once said, “Basically, there is a big difference between raw statistics and data gathering and using that data to incorporate into your process as a team”

Question:
What evidence is there that he is any good at running a department that will incorporate data into their process as a team?

I have brought up similar versions of this question.

My spin on it is what is Dubas ELITE at? Certainly not contract negotiation. Trades are AT BEST average. Not good at identifying proper mix of talent. A lot of people say drafting, but usually the GM will just listen to their head scout. And on top of that Dubas hasn't actually hit on anyone yet. Just a bunch of guys that some guys on Twitter seem happy about. So to me jury is still out there.

But it's not like he was replacing a terrible GM here, he was a guy that Shanny was willing toss aside a legendary HOF now back to back GMOTY. So you should need to be elite to toss that person aside. 3 years in, I absolutely nothing he's elite at. The best people on here can do is defend bad moves by saying Lou didn't win the Cup. Keep Lou out of it, explain why Dubas is elite. Not good, not great, ELITE.

 

[The CyNick]

No question the Habs out played the Leafs in the last 3 games. This narrative that the Leafs dominated the Habs is laughable

Worse than the narrative that the Columbus series was close. When in reality Leafs were beaten 4-1 in a 5 game series. The crazy goalie out comeback skewed the narrative.

 

[Stephen]

I do question how their double digits performed, but is it ironic that some don't want a Sundin for Clark deal, they want a Clark for Sundin.

Yeah that is the ironic twist in all of this. That we seem to need the Clark side of the equation.

My take on this is it won’t be a battleship for battleship deal like Marner out, Rantanen in or what have you. If anything it would be Big 4 member out, tons of futures in, and the cap savings allows you to buy another superstar or a couple of stars. It would be a bigger restructuring than a one for one finishing piece.

 

[Pookie]

I have brought up similar versions of this question.

My spin on it is what is Dubas ELITE at? Certainly not contract negotiation. Trades are AT BEST average. Not good at identifying proper mix of talent. A lot of people say drafting, but usually the GM will just listen to their head scout. And on top of that Dubas hasn't actually hit on anyone yet. Just a bunch of guys that some guys on Twitter seem happy about. So to me jury is still out there.

But it's not like he was replacing a terrible GM here, he was a guy that Shanny was willing toss aside a legendary HOF now back to back GMOTY. So you should be to be elite to toss that person aside. 3 years in, I absolutely nothing he's elite at. The best people on here can do is defend bad moves by saying Lou didn't win the Cup. Keep Lou out of it, explain why Dubas is elite. Not good, not great, ELITE.

It can be a pretty simple question.

if you were running a conference on the use of statistics to achieve success in sport....

would you pay thousands to have Kyle Dubas be a keynote speaker?

If you answer yes, remember that this isn’t a satirical event. Try again.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Didn't need hindsight.

You did though, because there was no actual reason to dismiss him. He had earned that chance, and every GM would have done the same.

Oh so losing the qualifying for the playoffs series means we didn't miss the playoffs huh?

Our series against Columbus was part of the playoffs, according to the NHL. And again, we wouldn't have had McBackup that year anyway. He was a UFA.

Weird how Marner and Tavares were still on the team and the variable is Hainsey

Hainsey was also there in 2017-2018 and Rielly didn't score 72 points. Technically, Tavares was the only one of those 3 that were new in 2018-2019. There's literally nothing to suggest that Hainsey caused Rielly to score 72 points. Fact is, Ceci was a better defenseman than 38 year old Hainsey, and again, Ceci was already locked into either a contract or arbitration.

 

[justashadowof]

In the end, Clark did little for Quebec/Colorado other than being parlayed into Claude Lemieux. It was Lemieux, the emergence of Peter Forsberg, the acquisition of the Latvian Bobby Orr and a Hall of Fame goalie who made the biggest difference on an emerging contender. Think of what we're comparing here: a team that could add a better power forward than the Leafs could ever dream adding, the best young offensive defenseman in hockey at the time and a goalie with a history of winning 2 Stanley Cups with middling teams.

 

[justashadowof]

Toronto outshoots their opposition 175-132 in elimination games the last two years.

Opposition Goaltending: .943%
Leafs Goaltending: .879%

That .943 save percentage is the team's most expensive investments not delivering in those games.

 

[PromisedLand]

new and improved you say? I think the expected BS/60 is going to go through the roof in this thread

 

[PromisedLand]

dubas thinks the nhl is the ohl

EA Sports it's in the game

 

[PromisedLand]

Unfortunately the NHL has two set of rules one for the regular season and one of the playoffs. To win in the playoffs you need a different set of skills or hope the NHL decides to call the rulebook. Dubas has realized this but imo course corrected to much towards grit and veteran leadership. This group seems more balanced. Hopefully McDavid calling out the refs causes the NHL to change the rules in the playoffs

All north american sports have 2 rules. One for the regular season and one for the playoffs

- NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL

All the players know it. McDavid can yell from the rooftops it ain't gonna change. I think he made it even more difficult for himself by making those comments; he is hardly going to get many calls in the playoffs - if oilers make it there

 

[The CyNick]

It can be a pretty simple question.

if you were running a conference on the use of statistics to achieve success in sport....

would you pay thousands to have Kyle Dubas be a keynote speaker?

If you answer yes, remember that this isn’t a satirical event. Try again.

Yeah I mean in that case you probably would because there are a lot of marks out there. But if you're trying to run a credible conference you would not invite him.

 

[The CyNick]

You did though, because there was no actual reason to dismiss him. He had earned that chance, and every GM would have done the same.

Our series against Columbus was part of the playoffs, according to the NHL. And again, we wouldn't have had McBackup that year anyway. He was a UFA.

Hainsey was also there in 2017-2018 and Rielly didn't score 72 points. Technically, Tavares was the only one of those 3 that were new in 2018-2019. There's literally nothing to suggest that Hainsey caused Rielly to score 72 points. Fact is, Ceci was a better defenseman than 38 year old Hainsey, and again, Ceci was already locked into either a contract or arbitration.

Dubas defenders have to cling to technicalities to explain the regression. Yes, they made the expanded playoff setup. They failed to qualify for the round of 16, the traditional number of teams in the playoffs. And they were not close in that series to boot.

 

[sparxx87]

We were also one of the best defensive teams in the first round led by arguably the best defensive line in the first round, the Matthews/Marner line. It sure makes things easier to stop the puck when way more shots/chances are going the other way. Measured over the entire playoffs, we had the best defensive team out of all 16 (although I'd like to stick to the first round)

There are always multiple teams that fall in the first round for the reasons the Leafs did. The 1st place pens only lost to the Islanders because of the massive difference in net. Team save% in that series was 92.33% to 88.83% while the Pens had the better of the play and were also one of the best defensive teams in the first round. Thats how important goaltending is. Jarry was a disaster. You switch the goalies and the Isles dont make it out of the first IMO.The Oilers were a hyper version of goaltending difference and depth issues but that was more on their keeper being worse than Campbell though.......it didnt mean McDavid and Drai wernt two of the best players in the first round and Crosby had great underlying numbers too.....but it still remains he only has 5 points the past two playoffs due to facing Price and Varly playing lights out back to back while his keeping was subpar. On the surface it looks like Crosby played like crap though. He didnt.

It's true, gotta look at the complete picture.

I agree Pittsburgh was let down by their goaltending… But let’s not forget or misrepresent how bad Varlamov was in that series, to the point he literally lost the net to Sorokin for letting in soft goals.

The idea the Islanders ride hot goaltending is objectively false. (I know this wasn’t your point, but I see this narrative a lot) They’ve gotten mediocre goaltending for the majority of their last two playoff runs but defend well enough as a team to compensate.

Lehner, Varlamov, Sorokin, it doesn’t seem to matter. They all have great numbers playing behind this group, but none have been immune to backbreaking softies.

 

[kb]

No question the Habs out played the Leafs in the last 3 games. This narrative that the Leafs dominated the Habs is laughable

Feelings aren't facts. Stick to facts.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas defenders have to cling to technicalities to explain the regression. Yes, they made the expanded playoff setup. They failed to qualify for the round of 16, the traditional number of teams in the playoffs.

There is no regression. It's quite ironic that you call it a "technicality", yet talk about missing the final 16, as if that was determined in any "traditional" way. We were a top-16 team in the league, and top-8 in the conference, and under "traditional" rules, we would have been a playoff team. Under the rules established for that season, we were playoff team. So really, we were a playoff team either way.

And they were not close in that series to boot.

The series was actually extremely close.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Toronto outshoots their opposition 175-132 in elimination games the last two years.

Opposition Goaltending: .943%
Leafs Goaltending: .879%

Let's take the last game against MTL and the last game against CLB. I assume you watched the games, what's your assessment of how we played? Forget the stats, just tell me how you felt watching the games.

I'll start - I thought we sucked in both games and the fact that a team with so much talent could come out so flat and look so listless when they should be playing with all the energy they could muster from the first minute, was a massive disappointment and not a good omen for the future.

 

[Stephen]

Let's take the last game against MTL and the last game against CLB. I assume you watched the games, what's your assessment of how we played? Forget the stats, just tell me how you felt watching the games.

I'll start - I thought we sucked in both games and the fact that a team with so much talent could come out so flat and look so listless when they should be playing with all the energy they could muster from the first minute, was a massive disappointment and not a good omen for the future.

You go back to the old sports cliche of coming out and playing 'our game.' Instead of coming out in Games 5 and 7 vs CBJ and Montreal they came out tentative like they didn't want to make the first mistake and were neutralized of whatever skill advantage they had going into those winner take all contests.

 

[Dave92]

I agree 100% that Campbell was not the problem last playoffs but some posters claim that the Leafs dominated the Habs but just got beat by opposition goaltending. Some of them claim it has been the issue the last 3 playoffs.

He played good overall but like the rest of the team he didn't play well after game 4.

Could t provide a single big save in two overtimes and the awful first goal to Gallagher in game 7.

The 4-0 shutout skews the series numbers in his favor when the reality is he was out played most games.

Definitely not a reason they lost tho.