Speculation: The narrative in TOR has changed so quickly

[JT AM da real deal]

WE have a slightly better defense this year. Brodie >> Barrie. Rielly will play healthy. Dermy will improve with age. Bogo brings an ability with Muzzy to stop da cycle. Holl can drop down to a 3rd pair role with Dermy where he will be more effective. Sandin can work on his speed training. Lily can properly develop. Lehtonen who knows what we got there but maybe he can crack da lineup on 3rd pair as he learns NA game or with Marlies either way.

 

[Machinae]

last year we needed a rhd who can you know actually play D and make a first pass , also a replacement 3c if we traded Kadri , there was no logic in getting a Barrie type player and nothing type player in Kerfoot

and it's not just the Kadri deal it's more so completely f***ing our cap

also the goal isn't just to make moves but to make the team better and so far the team has regressed

the thing i've never understood is why people get so emotionally attached to who the GM is , Burke had a massive following and now the Dube has his peeps who go from thread to thread defending his every move

i have no idea what difference who our GM is as long as there doing a competent job , i mean what would it matter if our GM is Dubas/Burke/Lou/Yzerman or some recent grade from Waterloo math who specialized in advanced hockey metrics ? what enjoyment do people get from who the person running the team is ? it truly baffles me

Who was available that the Leafs did not get but was confirmed available? Who was this mystery unicorn perfect fit that the Leafs did not identify and trade for that for sure could have been had? Again you say with hindsight what they needed but what they needed wasn't available and their first choice (Brodie from CGY) was blocked by Kadri's NTC. Kerfoot was the 3c that they acquired to fill Kadri's role and imo hasn't done a bad job when he got to play in that role.

As for the cap thing, tell me who on the team is untradeable at this moment? Do we have any buyout candidates? From what I see the expensive players, while not ideal, are expensive because they are good. There is no unmoveable contracts and the team has a fully functioning 20-21 man roster as we speak. Where is the cap crunch.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

Facts are facts.

xGA
2020 133.48
2019 168.82
2018 166.49
2017 154.6

SCA
2020 1538
2019 1943
2018 1847
2017 1703

HDCA
2020 637
2019 738
2018 726
2017 670

SCGA
2020 137
2019 149
2018 128
2017 130

SCSV%
2020 85.41
2019 87.01
2018 88.73
2017 87.52

HDSV%
2020 81.10
2019 82.03
2018 83.93
2017 83.50

This past season the Leafs reduced scoring chances against, high danger scoring chances against and their expected goals against. The problem is their Gs had the worst save% in all categories. Goaltending was a bigger issue this past season than the D.

Yup.
It’s a fact that the leafs improved in these stats.
It’s also a fact that fans, as well as probably all team’s management and certainly all agents find these stats have value as indicators.
It isn’t a fact that the leafs actually played better defence than other seasons. The statistics heavily indicate that they did but it doesn’t mean it is a fact they improved beyond a statistical interpretation.
Seeing as the stats point in the direction of an improvement I am inclined to accept that there is a high probability of that being the case. It’s kind of painful though to hear statistical indicators declared as absolute fact that a team was better.
It’s a fact that all the stats you included indicate an improvement but that’s all it is, there is still error/deviation involved without question.

that said, big Dubas fan right here. Didn’t like value for Kadri but that’s about it.

 

[hotpaws]

Sure. Matthews had the most shifts 5x5 and the longest shifts and generated net zero chances with zero points. Go at it. Knock yourself out. He is still a great player and athletes are not perfect.

knock myself out over what ? they decide games on actual goals scored not "shot generation"

and who said Mathews isn't a great player ? but this doesn't mean i'm going to give our 11m dollar crew a free pass and dump on the min wage guys

 

[hotpaws]

Who was available that the Leafs did not get but was confirmed available? Who was this mystery unicorn perfect fit that the Leafs did not identify and trade for that for sure could have been had? Again you say with hindsight what they needed but what they needed wasn't available and their first choice (Brodie from CGY) was blocked by Kadri's NTC. Kerfoot was the 3c that they acquired to fill Kadri's role and imo hasn't done a bad job when he got to play in that role.

As for the cap thing, tell me who on the team is untradeable at this moment? Do we have any buyout candidates? From what I see the expensive players, while not ideal, are expensive because they are good. There is no unmoveable contracts and the team has a fully functioning 20-21 man roster as we speak. Where is the cap crunch.

if the right type of players aren't available then you don't make a trade for the sake of making a trade

and there was no need for hindsight in what we needed last season , it was plain as day the type D we needed

why are you shifting the goalposts about the cap ? he overpaid all our rfa's and then blew 11m on a luxury C we didn't need

But i have to ask again , what makes you so attached to Dubas ? what possible difference would it make who the GM is as long as long as they're performing well ?

 

[The Podium]

Is there any stats for who gave up the most breakaways and 2 on 1's? Leafs had to have been near the top of that with our high-flying offense first system where defensemen literally pinched at every opportunity.

Thats included in high danger scoring chances.

 

[Machinae]

if the right type of players aren't available then you don't make a trade for the sake of making a trade

and there was no need for hindsight in what we needed last season , it was plain as day the type D we needed

why are you shifting the goalposts about the cap ? he overpaid all our rfa's and then blew 11m on a luxury C we didn't need

But i have to ask again , what makes you so attached to Dubas ? what possible difference would it make who the GM is as long as long as they're performing well ?

This team was hard pressed to ice an NHL defense WITH Barrie last season and you suggest they should have done nothing.. All that would have changed was the narrative would shift to "Dubas once again did NOTHING to address the D ! Why would you keep Kadri after two suspensions cost the team!" It's the same drivel over and over.

Am I attached to Dubas? Sure I am. I agree with or have seen the logic of every move he has made. Not like our past GMs. I hated the Marleau signing. I hated the Kessel trade. I hated the Toskala trade. I hated drafting Korshkov and Biggs and Gautheir and trading away 2nd round picks for fourth liners at the deadline. I don't hate anything Dubas has done except cave to Marners demands.

 

[Tak7]

How did Dubas' new technological hockey die (practically overnight)?

The easiest and obvious answer to your question, is that Dubas built a team around his own vision, and it didn't work.

He's now having to tweak his vision, to start prioritizing things that he didn't before - size, toughness, intangibles, etc.

I think deep down, Dubas truly believed that you could win with speed and skill at the NHL level, and was given a harsh reality check.

To his credit, this off-season feels like acknowledgment from Dubas that his initial vision was not only flawed, but that he's capable of adjusting and adapting.

 

[hotpaws]

This team was hard pressed to ice an NHL defense WITH Barrie last season and you suggest they should have done nothing.. All that would have changed was the narrative would shift to "Dubas once again did NOTHING to address the D ! Why would you keep Kadri after two suspensions cost the team!" It's the same drivel over and over.

Am I attached to Dubas? Sure I am. I agree with or have seen the logic of every move he has made. Not like our past GMs. I hated the Marleau signing. I hated the Kessel trade. I hated the Toskala trade. I hated drafting Korshkov and Biggs and Gautheir and trading away 2nd round picks for fourth liners at the deadline. I don't hate anything Dubas has done except cave to Marners demands.

so your saying making a bad trade is better than making no trade , your so far gone trying to defend the GM there's no use continuing this discussion

so i'll just say , have a good day and leave it at that

 

[Notsince67]

knock myself out over what ? they decide games on actual goals scored not "shot generation"

and who said Mathews isn't a great player ? but this doesn't mean i'm going to give our 11m dollar crew a free pass and dump on the min wage guys

How about you stop dumping on all the f***ing guys for a post or two?

 

[hotpaws]

How about you stop dumping on all the f***ing guys for a post or two?

who am i dumping on ?

and why are you so wound up ?

most teams go as far as there best players take them , that's why they get paid more , you seem to want to give our 11m dollar guys a free pass and endlessly shit on the bottom end guys for some reason

 

[Duckrider]

The easiest and obvious answer to your question, is that Dubas built a team around his own vision, and it didn't work.

He's now having to tweak his vision, to start prioritizing things that he didn't before - size, toughness, intangibles, etc.

I think deep down, Dubas truly believed that you could win with speed and skill at the NHL level, and was given a harsh reality check.

To his credit, this off-season feels like acknowledgment from Dubas that his initial vision was not only flawed, but that he's capable of adjusting and adapting.

Please show me where he said he was satisfied and thinks the team was great and good to go? You can't because you are making stuff up.

 

[Tak7]

Please show me where he said he was satisfied and thinks the team was great and good to go? You can't because you are making stuff up.

......

 

[egd27]

Nobody is "blaming goaltending for everything". It's just a fact that the Leafs had their best defensive results this past year, which is incredibly clear by every single metric, both basic and "advanced", and for the first time in years, it was not the primary weakness of our team. For the first time in years, goaltending was the primary weakness of our team. Hopefully Andersen can get back to his previous level, and the improved goalie depth can help.

Well that took about 90 seconds to look up

Team	Season	GA/GP
Toronto Maple Leafs	2017-2018	2.80
Toronto Maple Leafs	2018-2019	3.04
Toronto Maple Leafs	2016-2017	2.85
Toronto Maple Leafs	2019-2020	3.17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Let me guess, goals against per game is not a defensive metric?

 

[egd27]

But that's not the point, it's the constant harping on this one specific deal as some sort of reason to move off of this management group that is the garbage I'm speaking of. Every team makes bad moves but no one can shut up about Kadri because he sometimes feels like hitting people.

I feel the same about the Marleau signing. Guess it depends on one's point of view.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well that took about 90 seconds to look up

Yes, and as you can see, goaltending really dragged down that metric that combines both defense and goaltending together. The discussion being had was about defensive results though, which were the best we've had.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Well that took about 90 seconds to look up

Team	Season	GA/GP
Toronto Maple Leafs	2017-2018	2.80
Toronto Maple Leafs	2018-2019	3.04
Toronto Maple Leafs	2016-2017	2.85
Toronto Maple Leafs	2019-2020	3.17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Let me guess, goals against per game is not a defensive metric?

This is a good one. My go-to is SA or HDSC/HDSA.

Haven't looked it up, but Leafs are generally near the bottom in this category.

 

[The CyNick]

Who was available that the Leafs did not get but was confirmed available? Who was this mystery unicorn perfect fit that the Leafs did not identify and trade for that for sure could have been had? Again you say with hindsight what they needed but what they needed wasn't available and their first choice (Brodie from CGY) was blocked by Kadri's NTC. Kerfoot was the 3c that they acquired to fill Kadri's role and imo hasn't done a bad job when he got to play in that role.

As for the cap thing, tell me who on the team is untradeable at this moment? Do we have any buyout candidates? From what I see the expensive players, while not ideal, are expensive because they are good. There is no unmoveable contracts and the team has a fully functioning 20-21 man roster as we speak. Where is the cap crunch.

I don't think anyone would take on Marner and also give back equal value for him in a trade. That contract will hinder any trade attempts. You're right, he is trabeable, but you want to win the trade if you move him.

As for Barrie, that was just awful and should alone have cost Dubas his job. Dubas clearly wanted Brodie, but then when he couldn't make that happen he settled for Barrie.

Why he was targeting soft RHDs and willing to move a 2C for that is beyond me. He should have been out there looking for a rock on D, not guys who are scared of physical contact.

Kerfoot isn't a good 3C, and what's worse is he replaced Kadri at 3C, but Kadri is actually a 2C. So Dubas' plan was let me go from a position of strength at centre and then end up with a deficiency at that position, and also supplement a team that needed to get tougher with a player who is softer than butter. But hey, it was an RHD, so must make the team better.

It was one of the craziest moves I've ever seen in my many decades watching hockey. Would love to sit with him while I have a beer and he drinks something with an umbrella in it and hear his explanation. Even worse, I would like to hear Shanny's explanation. At least with Dubas I can give him a pass because he has no idea about intangibles since he never played the game. But Shanny supporting moving to a team with the physical presence of a timbit team is hard to comprehend. Maybe those moves happened on days Shanny wasn't visiting Toronto.

 

[egd27]

Let me guess, goals against per game is not a defensive metric?

Yes, and as you can see, goaltending really dragged down that metric that combines both defense and goaltending together. The discussion being had was about defensive results though, which were the best we've had.

Got it.......don't worry about goals against when evaluating team defense.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Got it.......don't worry about goals against when evaluating team defense.

Looking at it is fine, as long as you're well aware that it's something that measures defense and goaltending combined, so you're don't mistakenly try to use it in a discussion about defensive results specifically.

 

[justashadowof]

Well that took about 90 seconds to look up

Team	Season	GA/GP
Toronto Maple Leafs	2017-2018	2.80
Toronto Maple Leafs	2018-2019	3.04
Toronto Maple Leafs	2016-2017	2.85
Toronto Maple Leafs	2019-2020	3.17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Let me guess, goals against per game is not a defensive metric?

It would be gaslighting by definition if someone attempts to fansplain how goals against isn't a valid defensive metric. Let's see.

 

[Duckrider]

It would be gaslighting by definition if someone attempts to fansplain how goals against isn't a valid defensive metric. Let's see.

Bad goalies

 

[The Podium]

Well that took about 90 seconds to look up

Team	Season	GA/GP
Toronto Maple Leafs	2017-2018	2.80
Toronto Maple Leafs	2018-2019	3.04
Toronto Maple Leafs	2016-2017	2.85
Toronto Maple Leafs	2019-2020	3.17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Let me guess, goals against per game is not a defensive metric?

It would be gaslighting by definition if someone attempts to fansplain how goals against isn't a valid defensive metric. Let's see.

Simply looking at GA/GP is a defensive metric that combines both team D and goaltending.

It is good to see how a team did as a whole, but does not decipher where the problem lies.

When looking at stats that breakdown GA/GP into individual parts, defensive metrics like scoring chances against or high danger chances against have improved while scoring chance save% or high danger save % have worsened.

For the GA/GP to be decreasing while scoring chances against and high danger scoring chances against are improving means that goals are scored from harmless plays or goaltending has been worse in high danger situations. The eye test and stats prove those both to be true.

 

[The Podium]

This is a good one. My go-to is SA or HDSC/HDSA.

Haven't looked it up, but Leafs are generally near the bottom in this category.

I included them below. Yes the Leafs are near the bottom, but this year they improved to lower middle of the league in most defensive categories.

Still a huge margin for improvement, but trending in the right direction.

Facts are facts.

xGA
2020 133.48
2019 168.82
2018 166.49
2017 154.6

SCA
2020 1538
2019 1943
2018 1847
2017 1703

HDCA
2020 637
2019 738
2018 726
2017 670

SCGA
2020 137
2019 149
2018 128
2017 130

SCSV%
2020 85.41
2019 87.01
2018 88.73
2017 87.52

HDSV%
2020 81.10
2019 82.03
2018 83.93
2017 83.50

This past season the Leafs reduced scoring chances against, high danger scoring chances against and their expected goals against. The problem is their Gs had the worst save% in all categories. Goaltending was a bigger issue this past season than the D.

 

[egd27]

Simply looking at GA/GP is a defensive metric that combines both team D and goaltending.

Looking at it is fine, as long as you're well aware that it's something that measures defense and goaltending combined, so you're don't mistakenly try to use it in a discussion about defensive results specifically.

Now now boys, don't be trying to change the discussion again.

Let recap for those that came in late.

Dekey claimed:

Nobody is "blaming goaltending for everything". It's just a fact that the Leafs had their best defensive results this past year, which is incredibly clear by every single metric, both basic and "advanced", and for the first time in years, it was not the primary weakness of our team. For the first time in years, goaltending was the primary weakness of our team. Hopefully Andersen can get back to his previous level, and the improved goalie depth can help.

Now I'll admit I'm not up on a lot of the newer expressions, so if there is a new meaning to phrase "every single" I sincerely apologize. But if it means what I think it means, then either goals against per game is not a defensive stat, or the dekester was incorrect since the GA/Game was the worst it's been in the past 4 seasons.

Should we make a poll?