The Myth of John Tavares and Unmet Potential - by an Isles Fan

[Merrrlin]

I have been thinking about writing this post for over a month now. I've noticed on different areas of this website, John has been disrespected or generally underrated or underappreciated.

What I've read:

• John got overpaid
• John never reached his potential
• John wasn't a great #1 pick
• John's career has been a letdown

Now just so we're clear, I am not interested in discussing how he left our team...as most Islander fans would agree, we're dissapointed. There's no way around that, even if he did give us some good years. If I had it my way, we would have hired Lou and Trotz 5 years ago and John's story with us may be completely different.

Good. That's out of the way. Lets look at some of John's stats.

I recently read in the prospects forum that a certain prospect is similar to Tavares, and it was meant as an insult. Posters claimed he isn't elite, and that you can find better players in every draft, so it's a disappointing comparison. Let's take a look:

Range	Goals	Assists	Points	P/GP
2 years (164gp)	2nd	36th	7th	15th
5 years (401gp)	2nd	22nd	6th	8th
10 years (751gp)	3rd	16th	7th	15th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*source: QuantHockey.com

In the last 10 years, the only players with more goals are:

• Alex Ovechkin
• Steven Stamkos

In the last 10 years, the only players with more points are:

• Sidney Crosby
• Patrick Kane
• Alex Ovechkin
• Claude Giroux
• Steven Stamkos
• Nicklas Backstrom

Take a look at that list. Can you name a player on that list who accomplished that with less help? Our Islander teams have been awful. The best players John Tavares has played with are (by P/GP in last 10 years for NYI players):

• Thomas Vanek (only 47 gp)
• Mathew Barzal (only 1 season)
• PA Parentau
• Matt Moulsen
• Brad Boyes
• Kyle Okposo

*source: NHL.com

Look at that list. Those were the best P/GP players that played for the Islanders with John over his last 10 seasons with our franchise. There is no Malkin, no Kessel, no Carlson or Backstrom, no Hedman or Kucherov, no Toews or Keith....PA Parentau and Matt Moulsen...

CONCLUSION

John Tavares has been an elite player his entire career. No one in his class of players (top scorers) over his career even come close to having as little support. Hockey is a team game, and point totals are heavily influenced by the talent around you.

• John got overpaid

How can you call his contract an overpayment? Look at his goal scoring proficiency!

• John never reached his potential

Finishing top 15 in the last decade with no help, and top 3 in goals. What more can you really expect from a player, even a #1 OA pick?

• John wasn't a great #1 pick

See above.

• John's career has been a letdown

This one is harder to answer. I remember an unbelievable amount of excitement when we drafted him. He didn't bring us a cup, and he left, so as an Islander...well, maybe you could say his time with us was a disappointment. We didn't give him any help.

However, as a player separate from the emotional aspect, I would say he's had a great career. One of the best goal scorers of the decade, and possibly of a generation. In the top 0.1% in terms of production.

Click to read more...

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

JT is a very good player. The biggest knocks against him are the islanders drafting and no free agents wanting to sign there. The idea that he should have been a 1 man team or could have been are a f***ing joke.

 

[Merrrlin]

JT is a very good player. The biggest knocks against him are the islanders drafting and no free agents wanting to sign there. The idea that he should have been a 1 man team or could have been are a ****ing joke.

Exactly, and I don't even think those are knocks against him.

In a dream world, we would have drafted JT more recently, and he would be around for this phase of the Islanders. I'd love to see his career with a player like Barzal behind him, and some real depth around him.

 

[Ivan13]

Yes, he is a terrific player and definitely gets unwarranted negative attention from some, but he most certainly did not meet the draft hype he had behind him. Had he, he would've been a Connor McDavid level of a player.

 

[bobholly39]

OP, you posted:

• John got overpaid
• John never reached his potential
• John wasn't a great #1 pick
• John's career has been a letdown

1. He didn't get overpaid and any rational person knows it. The UFA market is ruled by supply and demand - and Tavares could have gotten 13M$ per season if he just wanted cash. So no.

2. Potential? That's debatable I guess. Has he reached his ceiling? Probably not - very few players do. Sidney Crosby probably didn't reach his full potential either. Doesn't mean it's a disappointment in anyway, that's why we call them ceilings. Still has had a fantastic career.

3. He's a fantastic #1 pick and i've never seen anyone on HF dispute it. There have been many conversations about Tavares vs Hedman - but that's no disrespect to Tavares, it's just the expected norm when there's such a strong top 2 in a draft. Stamkos/Doughty is another example the year prior, and if people argue Doughty would have made a better #1 pick, it doesn't meant Stamkos is an unworthy pick, it just means the top 2 is super strong.

4. Go back to #2. Fantastic career. Letdown? I guess it depends on expectations that some may have placed on him. For the most part he's highly respected and appreciated as a top tier player in this league around here.

Majority of Tavares-bashing threads or discussions have to do with fans upset he left, or fans who don't like the Leafs.

ps - i know you don't believe the bolded points, and are arguing against them. I'm just pointing out - for the most part - those aren't exactly popular beliefs around here, quite the contrary

 

[NyQuil]

Of the disrespected players on this board, John Tavares hasn't exactly been the frontrunner.

He's a franchise forward and a #1C.

I'm not sure who thinks otherwise in any great numbers.

I think the myth itself is a bit of a myth.

Speaking for Toronto, Matthews gets a lot more disrespect than Tavares.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I still wonder if it's him or Matthews that gets named captain.

 

[Madap]

Great post. On top of everything you said - he's a great leader and a good example for the younger players (yes, I know how he left NY but as others have said, NY did themselves no favours over the years). Not just counting the way he acts off the ice - I'm mostly impressed with how he acts on the ice. He rarely takes nights off and even when he does and isn't producing, he is never afraid to get physical with the other team and at least contribute that way. He will grind and wear them down, and isn't afraid to get in someone's face. Its a great example of always working hard and its something that I feel our young stars lack.

He is exactly what the leafs needed and anyone who says that he was a bad signing is completely out to lunch.

 

[Merrrlin]

Great post. On top of everything you said - he's a great leader and a good example for the younger players (yes, I know how he left NY but as others have said, NY did themselves no favours over the years). Not just counting the way he acts off the ice - I'm mostly impressed with how he acts on the ice. He rarely takes nights off and even when he does and isn't producing, he is never afraid to get physical with the other team and at least contribute that way. He will grind and wear them down, and isn't afraid to get in someone's face. Its a great example of always working hard and its something that I feel our young stars lack.

He is exactly what the leafs needed and anyone who says that he was a bad signing is completely out to lunch.

I actually met him in New York a few years ago and I agree with what you said. He honestly acted like one of my buddies would, and was quite friendly.

 

[NyQuil]

I still wonder if it's him or Matthews that gets named captain.

As of right now, I'd go with JT.

Just more experienced and mature and ready for the responsibility IMO.

 

[Merrrlin]

Yes, he is a terrific player and definitely gets unwarranted negative attention from some, but he most certainly did not meet the draft hype he had behind him. Had he, he would've been a Connor McDavid level of a player.

In my opinion, draft hype and potential are two different things. Very few players meet draft hype expectations. Even McDavid and Crosby haven't met their draft hype, in my opinion. I grew up in Truro so I had a lot of connections to East Coast hockey up in Canada, and I heard Gretzky comparisons.

 

[Orfieus]

I have been thinking about writing this post for over a month now. I've noticed on different areas of this website, John has been disrespected or generally underrated or underappreciated.

What I've read:

• John got overpaid
• John never reached his potential
• John wasn't a great #1 pick
• John's career has been a letdown

Now just so we're clear, I am not interested in discussing how he left our team...as most Islander fans would agree, we're dissapointed. There's no way around that, even if he did give us some good years. If I had it my way, we would have hired Lou and Trotz 5 years ago and John's story with us may be completely different.

Good. That's out of the way. Lets look at some of John's stats.

I recently read in the prospects forum that a certain prospect is similar to Tavares, and it was meant as an insult. Posters claimed he isn't elite, and that you can find better players in every draft, so it's a disappointing comparison. Let's take a look:

Range	Goals	Assists	Points	P/GP
2 years (164gp)	2nd	36th	7th	15th
5 years (401gp)	2nd	22nd	6th	8th
10 years (751gp)	3rd	16th	7th	15th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*source: QuantHockey.com

In the last 10 years, the only players with more goals are:

• Alex Ovechkin
• Steven Stamkos

In the last 10 years, the only players with more points are:

• Sidney Crosby
• Patrick Kane
• Alex Ovechkin
• Claude Giroux
• Steven Stamkos
• Nicklas Backstrom

Take a look at that list. Can you name a player on that list who accomplished that with less help? Our Islander teams have been awful. The best players John Tavares has played with are (by P/GP in last 10 years for NYI players):

• Thomas Vanek (only 47 gp)
• Mathew Barzal (only 1 season)
• PA Parentau
• Matt Moulsen
• Brad Boyes
• Kyle Okposo

*source: NHL.com

Look at that list. Those were the best P/GP players that played for the Islanders with John over his last 10 seasons with our franchise. There is no Malkin, no Kessel, no Carlson or Backstrom, no Hedman or Kucherov, no Toews or Keith....PA Parentau and Matt Moulsen...

CONCLUSION

John Tavares has been an elite player his entire career. No one in his class of players (top scorers) over his career even come close to having as little support. Hockey is a team game, and point totals are heavily influenced by the talent around you.

• John got overpaid

How can you call his contract an overpayment? Look at his goal scoring proficiency!

• John never reached his potential

Finishing top 15 in the last decade with no help, and top 3 in goals. What more can you really expect from a player, even a #1 OA pick?

• John wasn't a great #1 pick

See above.

• John's career has been a letdown

This one is harder to answer. I remember an unbelievable amount of excitement when we drafted him. He didn't bring us a cup, and he left, so as an Islander...well, maybe you could say his time with us was a disappointment. We didn't give him any help.

However, as a player separate from the emotional aspect, I would say he's had a great career. One of the best goal scorers of the decade, and possibly of a generation. In the top 0.1% in terms of production.

Not sure which is more cringy, this ^

or

 

[Merrrlin]

OP, you posted:

• John got overpaid
• John never reached his potential
• John wasn't a great #1 pick
• John's career has been a letdown

1. He didn't get overpaid and any rational person knows it. The UFA market is ruled by supply and demand - and Tavares could have gotten 13M$ per season if he just wanted cash. So no.

2. Potential? That's debatable I guess. Has he reached his ceiling? Probably not - very few players do. Sidney Crosby probably didn't reach his full potential either. Doesn't mean it's a disappointment in anyway, that's why we call them ceilings. Still has had a fantastic career.

3. He's a fantastic #1 pick and i've never seen anyone on HF dispute it. There have been many conversations about Tavares vs Hedman - but that's no disrespect to Tavares, it's just the expected norm when there's such a strong top 2 in a draft. Stamkos/Doughty is another example the year prior, and if people argue Doughty would have made a better #1 pick, it doesn't meant Stamkos is an unworthy pick, it just means the top 2 is super strong.

4. Go back to #2. Fantastic career. Letdown? I guess it depends on expectations that some may have placed on him. For the most part he's highly respected and appreciated as a top tier player in this league around here.

Majority of Tavares-bashing threads or discussions have to do with fans upset he left, or fans who don't like the Leafs.

ps - i know you don't believe the bolded points, and are arguing against them. I'm just pointing out - for the most part - those aren't exactly popular beliefs around here, quite the contrary

I agree with a lot of what you said. Maybe I am just a bit more sensitive to criticism he gets as he was my favourite player for a decade. I've seen people rank lesser players with better support over him, and undervalue his goal scoring. Just rubs me the wrong way, and this post comparing him to a potential #1OA and having the description of "not elite" be tagged to him was frustrating.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Uh I'm pretty sure the actual knock against Tavares is that he pulled a Suter.

 

[Merrrlin]

Not sure which is more cringy, this ^

or

I actually find this to be the most cringy option:

Marner for McAvoy

 

[arrbez]

Yes, he is a terrific player and definitely gets unwarranted negative attention from some, but he most certainly did not meet the draft hype he had behind him. Had he, he would've been a Connor McDavid level of a player.

The fact that there was strong (and reasonable) debate about whether he should even go 1st overall in his draft will tell you that he was not considered a Crosby/McDavid level player at the time of his draft. There was a lot of talk about Hedman, and even some Duchene backers for #1 pick at the time.

His hype at age 15/16 was what had people thinking he could be the "next one". 45 goals in 65 games at age 15 in the OHL is nuts. If I recall, it had calmed down a bit by the time he was drafted, but there were still plenty of people overestimating his potential based on what we all remembered from him at age 15 and 16.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I still wonder if it's him or Matthews that gets named captain.

Nothing against either but I am pulling for Rielly.

 

[arrbez]

Uh I'm pretty sure the actual knock against Tavares is that he pulled a Suter.

I'll never forgive Tavares for crosschecking Paul Kariya in the face.

 

[Machinehead]

It's not that Tavares isn't a remarkable player, it's that he was hyped up to be a player that wins multiple Harts like a Crosby/Ovechkin/McDavid. He hasn't been that.

He's also, for me, a rather unimpressive player to watch despite the results being evident.

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

It's not that Tavares isn't a remarkable player, it's that he was hyped up to be a player that wins multiple Harts like a Crosby/Ovechkin/McDavid. He hasn't been that.

He's also, for me, a rather unimpressive player to watch despite the results being evident.

Those sound like you problems.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

I'll never forgive Tavares for crosschecking Paul Kariya in the face.

 

[Machinehead]

Those sound like you problems.

Yes, I was comparing Tavares to Crosby and Greztky back when we were both in high school. It was me.

 

[X66]

It's not that Tavares isn't a remarkable player, it's that he was hyped up to be a player that wins multiple Harts like a Crosby/Ovechkin/McDavid. He hasn't been that.

He's also, for me, a rather unimpressive player to watch despite the results being evident.

Look at the talent Tavares was surrounded by.

I always wondered how Tavares' numbers would look if he was drafted by Tampa.

 

[boredmale]

Range	Goals	Assists	Points	P/GP
2 years (164gp)	2nd	36th	7th	15th
5 years (401gp)	2nd	22nd	6th	8th
10 years (751gp)	3rd	16th	7th	15th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*source: QuantHockey.com

How do you get these stats. I went to NHL.com and did the total points for guys in both 2009/10 and 2010/11 and Tavares placed 41st for total points. His first 5 years he places 21st and 10 years he does place 7th but one has to remember that is a somewhat unfair stat because not everybody else in that range played 10 years where a bulk of them were peak years

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Look at the talent Tavares was surrounded by.

I always wondered how Tavares' numbers would look if he was drafted by Tampa.

I'm not gonna debate if Tavares was hyped to the degree of a Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid, but some posters are saying he was. And in that case, it doesn't matter who you play with if you're on that level, you put up the insane numbers regardless like Sid and Connor did