Confirmed with Link: The Jakob Chychrun Thread (update: 3/25/25 | signs 8-year, $72M extension)

[g00n]

Chicky is an incredible player.

Pay the man his money

 

[twabby]

I wonder if a NTC/NMC is the sticking point. It seems like Chychrun hated Ottawa and maybe he wants to prevent such a thing going forward. And we all know how reluctant Washington is to hand out NTCs/NMCs.

 

[kicksavedave]

If the NHL is headed to a place where the Chychrun’s of the league get $12 mil per; they’re headed the wrong way, maybe back to the days of guys like Bobby Holik getting $9 mil a year, which was so gross and led indirectly to a work stoppage.

We're obviously heading in that direction, the only question is when exactly, but that's basically just tied to revenue growth through ticket prices and to a lesser extent, TV deals. But in terms of right way/wrong way, this has always been a one way street, the only variable is the speed we travel. Holik's deal lead to a salary cap, which slowed things down a bit, but nothing will ever change directions in terms of salary growth.

We always need to compare new contracts to their future value, not their past comparisons. Like we do with Willy. I'm 1000% sure BM and CP know this fully.

 

[kicksavedave]

I wonder if a NTC/NMC is the sticking point. It seems like Chychrun hated Ottawa and maybe he wants to prevent such a thing going forward. And we all know how reluctant Washington is to hand out NTCs/NMCs.

Possibly this.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Possibly this.

I am thinking “probably” this

 

[Random schmoe]

I've been assuming all along Chychrun will get some sort of trade/movement protection. The Caps gave Roy a fairly limited NTC: "15 Team No Trade in Yrs 1-2 through May 31; then 10 Team No Trade Yrs 3-6".

Assuming an 8 year deal, I could see something like full NTC/NMC for 4 years, then dropping gradually to something with less protection. Shorter overall deal would equal shorter term on the full clause. Let him feel comfortable for at least a few years, settle, start a family, etc.

One thing I thought interesting:
Chychrun was recently on the Break the Ice podcast with Vogel (YT link below). Vogel, while acknowledging that Chychrun didn't want to discuss the contract negotiations, brought it up anyway. He then proceeded to related a recent conversation he had with Chris Patrick where he said (I'm summarizing) that due to the cap increases in the next 3 years Patrick can foresee players preferring the shorter term deal for now, then re-enter the UFA market for the 2027-28 season with the cap projected to be at $113.5M. Chych again declined to discuss it, but I thought it awfully interesting that Vogel brought it up like that.

If he just wanted a 3 year deal, I'd likley be willing to do a full NTC/NMC for the whole thing.

For the record ... My comfortable ceiling with Chychrun is $9.5M. I have 'feelings' about the fact that he isn't part of the normal PK rotation. It limits what I'd commit to him.

 

[DWGie26]

I wonder if a NTC/NMC is the sticking point. It seems like Chychrun hated Ottawa and maybe he wants to prevent such a thing going forward. And we all know how reluctant Washington is to hand out NTCs/NMCs.

It could be. But Chychrun has been here for a full season and it would seems he likes it. Knows it is a quality organization that takes care of its own. And Caps just don’t do it. I think it is about the AAV.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Almost nobody should get a full NTC much less a NMC. I LOVE that the Caps haven’t been that desperate and don’t operate that way.

 

[wickedwitch]

Almost nobody should get a full NTC much less a NMC. I LOVE that the Caps haven’t been that desperate and don’t operate that way.

100% agreed. They should not, under any circumstance, give Chychrun a full NMC. The second they do that with one player, they lower their bargaining power for every single other player. I'd rather see him at $11 million AAV than with a full NMC.

If McDavid or Makar wanted to sign here and the NMC was the holdup, then fine. But literally only for players at that level, and Chychrun isn't close.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I've been assuming all along Chychrun will get some sort of trade/movement protection. The Caps gave Roy a fairly limited NTC: "15 Team No Trade in Yrs 1-2 through May 31; then 10 Team No Trade Yrs 3-6".

Assuming an 8 year deal, I could see something like full NTC/NMC for 4 years, then dropping gradually to something with less protection. Shorter overall deal would equal shorter term on the full clause. Let him feel comfortable for at least a few years, settle, start a family, etc.

One thing I thought interesting:
Chychrun was recently on the Break the Ice podcast with Vogel (YT link below). Vogel, while acknowledging that Chychrun didn't want to discuss the contract negotiations, brought it up anyway. He then proceeded to related a recent conversation he had with Chris Patrick where he said (I'm summarizing) that due to the cap increases in the next 3 years Patrick can foresee players preferring the shorter term deal for now, then re-enter the UFA market for the 2027-28 season with the cap projected to be at $113.5M. Chych again declined to discuss it, but I thought it awfully interesting that Vogel brought it up like that.

If he just wanted a 3 year deal, I'd likley be willing to do a full NTC/NMC for the whole thing.

For the record ... My comfortable ceiling with Chychrun is $9.5M. I have 'feelings' about the fact that he isn't part of the normal PK rotation. It limits what I'd commit to him.

I’m right there with you…limited Teams guy…3rd pairing, it’s a little “off” at the speculated prices.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

We're obviously heading in that direction, the only question is when exactly, but that's basically just tied to revenue growth through ticket prices and to a lesser extent, TV deals. But in terms of right way/wrong way, this has always been a one way street, the only variable is the speed we travel. Holik's deal lead to a salary cap, which slowed things down a bit, but nothing will ever change directions in terms of salary growth.

We always need to compare new contracts to their future value, not their past comparisons. Like we do with Willy. I'm 1000% sure BM and CP know this fully.

My issue is more with the decision to award truly big dollar deals to players who aren’t really elite.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The Sal Cap raising up SO substantially, so quickly, will force us all to reassess our “contract value” calculations, IMO. It’s adding some 35% or whatever in a few years. That’s a LOT.

I don’t want him making more than Ovy. But if he wants to be at same level? As long as Ovy don’t care, I don’t either. The extra 1-2m won’t matter a hill of beans, assuming he stays healthy.

JC6 IS a dynamic players. In today’s dollars he’s worth 7-8m. But it won’t be today’s dollars. HELL, 30% from there takes him closer to 11m!

 

[WanderingCapsFan]

The Sal Cap raising up SO substantially, so quickly, will force us all to reassess our “contract value” calculations, IMO. It’s adding some 35% or whatever in a few years. That’s a LOT.

I don’t want him making more than Ovy. But if he wants to be at same level? As long as Ovy don’t care, I don’t either. The extra 1-2m won’t matter a hill of beans, assuming he stays healthy.

JC6 IS a dynamic players. In today’s dollars he’s worth 7-8m. But it won’t be today’s dollars. HELL, 30% from there takes him closer to 11m!

Kinda makes my stomach churn, but the math checks out.

 

[zappa4ever]

I don't think many ppl here realize how rare a 20g D-man is...

since 2005-06:
19 D-men have scored 20g (13 over the last 10 seasons)

also it's disingenuous to call him a 3rd pair when he's 2nd in D TOI/gm at 20:56/gm and has averaged over 22min/gm since 2019-20

and the 2 comps listed above... only M Rielly, Hamilton and Burns out of those 25 or so listed have ever hit 20g

Pay the man.

 

[RedRocking]

I don't think many ppl here realize how rare a 20g D-man is...

since 2005-06:
19 D-men have scored 20g (13 over the last 10 seasons)

also it's disingenuous to call him a 3rd pair when he's 2nd in D TOI/gm at 20:56/gm and has averaged over 22min/gm since 2019-20

and the 2 comps listed above... only M Rielly, Hamilton and Burns out of those 25 or so listed have ever hit 20g

Pay the man.

Just to add. He also plays the most 5v5 mins/gm of any of our D-men, 17:47/gm vs Carlson’s 16:40.

In all situations (where he’s 2nd in TOI/gm) he has a xG share of 56%; and an actual G share of 65.5%.

I get that he doesn’t PK, and doesn’t get a lot of tough D-zone starts. And there is still some immaturity to his game in terms of puck management and decision-making.

But, he is a big part of this year’s success, and is key to our transition/possession game. If you let him walk, good luck replacing all of those minutes and offensive production.

 

[qcal1427]

The Sal Cap raising up SO substantially, so quickly, will force us all to reassess our “contract value” calculations, IMO. It’s adding some 35% or whatever in a few years. That’s a LOT.

I don’t want him making more than Ovy. But if he wants to be at same level? As long as Ovy don’t care, I don’t either. The extra 1-2m won’t matter a hill of beans, assuming he stays healthy.

JC6 IS a dynamic players. In today’s dollars he’s worth 7-8m. But it won’t be today’s dollars. HELL, 30% from there takes him closer to 11m!

There are a whole lot of guys that signed pre-covid when the cap was thought to be going up and even this past summer where they knew it was going up (although probably not to this extent).

Whether they like it or not players this summer are not getting a 35% premium. Look at what Rantanen just signed for

Just to add. He also plays the most 5v5 mins/gm of any of our D-men, 17:47/gm vs Carlson’s 16:40.

In all situations (where he’s 2nd in TOI/gm) he has a xG share of 56%; and an actual G share of 65.5%.

All-situations xG is incredibly disingenuous for a guy that only plays one special teams. At 5v5 his xG according to MoneyPuck is 48.8% which is pretty comfortably last out of the Caps' 6 regulars.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think many ppl here realize how rare a 20g D-man is...

since 2005-06:
19 D-men have scored 20g (13 over the last 10 seasons)

also it's disingenuous to call him a 3rd pair when he's 2nd in D TOI/gm at 20:56/gm and has averaged over 22min/gm since 2019-20

and the 2 comps listed above... only M Rielly, Hamilton and Burns out of those 25 or so listed have ever hit 20g

Pay the man.

Devils advocate stuff:

Except he’s not quite a 20g guy. He’s an 18g guy (on 11.5% shooting) who also scored 18g in 20-21 (on 10.2% shooting) Similarly both seasons, he rode a abnormally high shooting % vs his career average of 7.4.

Jakob Chychrun Stats And News

Get all the latest stats, news, videos, and more on Jakob Chychrun.

www.nhl.com

He’s really a guy who you can probably count on to put up in the low to mid-teens on a good team, in a typical full season.

He also IS an actual 3rd pairing guy. it’s not a knock, just the facts. Does he pick up limited Teams and additional even strength time over your average 3rd pair (#5) defender, absolutely.

If I’m the Caps I’m happy to pay him up to 8.5. Anything higher and I’m very nervous for when he potentially regresses.

Feels like disingenuous is being thrown around loosely in this thread…

 

[RedRocking]

There are a whole lot of guys that signed pre-covid when the cap was thought to be going up and even this past summer where they knew it was going up (although probably not to this extent).

Whether they like it or not players this summer are not getting a 35% premium. Look at what Rantanen just signed for


All-situations xG is incredibly disingenuous for a guy that only plays one special teams. At 5v5 his xG according to MoneyPuck is 48.8% which is pretty comfortably last out of the Caps' 6 regulars.

I wasn’t being disingenuous, everyone knows he doesn’t PK. Those numbers are the numbers when he’s on the ice. I saw that 5v5 xG number - yea, it’s not great, and should have just included it to be fair. It’s pretty close to Roy’s 49.5% (but he gets tougher assignments)

In any event, Chychrun’s actual 5v5 G share is 60.2%. Which is 2nd best among D-men. I guess the big delta can somewhat be explained by his jacked up sh% and unsustainable PDO by the team as a whole.

I can see why this would be a hard negotiation. He gets a lot of minutes, but is also kinda sheltered. He’s a great shooter, and goal scorer - but you can’t rely on his shooting % remaining this high.

Still, talent like his doesn’t grow on trees. And we have no one in the system ready to go (Hutson is prob 3 yrs from DC). At 26, it’s not like he still can’t improve in some areas. Especially since this is the first stable situation he’s been in; on a team that knows how to win. I’d probably do 9.5M absolute max.

 

[MW6]

Let’s assume that jC6, with the current cap is a 8M defender.

25-26: Cap rises from 88M to 95,5M = 8,5%
8M x 1,085 = 8,68M

26-27: Cap rises from 95,5M to 104M = 8,9%
8,45M x 1,089 = 9,45M

27-28: Cap rises from 104M to 113,5M = 9,1%
9,45M x 1,091 = 10,3M

(8,68 + 9,45 + 10,3) / 3 = 9,48

With the cap rising and him being paid the equivalent of an 8M defenseman for the next three years would mean Caps should offer him a 3x9,48M-contract. It sounds rich, but I guess it’s sort of reasonable.

 

[wickedwitch]

Still, talent like his doesn’t grow on trees. And we have no one in the system ready to go (Hutson is prob 3 yrs from DC). At 26, it’s not like he still can’t improve in some areas. Especially since this is the first stable situation he’s been in; on a team that knows how to win. I’d probably do 9.5M absolute max.

Lane was 1 year away at a comparable point in time. I expect Cole is on a similar timeline, maybe adding a few months in Hershey. But he is not 3 years away.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Devils advocate stuff:

Except he’s not quite a 20g guy. He’s an 18g guy (on 11.5% shooting) who also scored 18g in 20-21 (on 10.2% shooting) Similarly both seasons, he rode a abnormally high shooting % vs his career average of 7.4.

Jakob Chychrun Stats And News

Get all the latest stats, news, videos, and more on Jakob Chychrun.

www.nhl.com

He’s really a guy who you can probably count on to put up in the low to mid-teens on a good team, in a typical full season.

He also IS an actual 3rd pairing guy. it’s not a knock, just the facts. Does he pick up limited Teams and additional even strength time over your average 3rd pair (#5) defender, absolutely.

If I’m the Caps I’m happy to pay him up to 8.5. Anything higher and I’m very nervous for when he potentially regresses.

Feels like disingenuous is being thrown around loosely in this thread…

1m a yr w the Cap increase coming, won’t mean dick. I don’t want 9.5, but I’m sure not wringing my hands over it.

And next year part of the 35% comes into play. Like what — 10% of it? So that’s where we go from 8.5 to 9.5.

Meh, I’m just running numbers

 

[Ridley Simon]

Lane was 1 year away at a comparable point in time. I expect Cole is on a similar timeline, maybe adding a few months in Hershey. But he is not 3 years away.

Cannot assume that. Habs also suck butt, so they could allow a youngster to grow like that.

It’s not happening on Ovy watch, unless he resigns for at least TWO years, IMO.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Hutson in 2 years hopefully.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

1m a yr w the Cap increase coming, won’t mean dick. I don’t want 9.5, but I’m sure not wringing my hands over it.

And next year part of the 35% comes into play. Like what — 10% of it? So that’s where we go from 8.5 to 9.5.

Meh, I’m just running numbers

They are so easy to run when it’s not our money!

 

[Ridley Simon]

They are so easy to run when it’s not our money!

I think Ted will pay to the max, regardless. So it’s all about allocation of money to spend. Right?

Not IF it will be spent. It’ll be spent