The Guffman Index flawlessly predicts all 16 playoff teams... again!

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Guffman

Registered User
Apr 7, 2016
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I just wanted to chime in here to say The Guffman stat remains THE most notable stat in terms of team success. It was yet another year where all 16 playoff teams also had registered the top 16 stats in The Guffman index.

I discovered this stat back in March, 2019 and posted it on this subforum. It was so irrefutable and dangerous to those hawking phony "advanced stats" like Corsi (and later, xGF and xGA) that this underground community convinced the authorities to bury the thread.

At risk to my personal safety, I will share The Guffman once more to this community. Copy and save these important words and share with those that you trust who won't turn you in to the local Advanced Stats militia.

Guffman discovers new Advanced Stat

Hey guys, Guffman here. I have been accused of being a caveman on my team forum because I don’t embrace a lot of these so-called advanced stats like Corsi. After much deliberation, I realized that advanced stats ARE the way of the future but the current advanced stats just are not advanced...
forums.hfboards.com
forums.hfboards.com

Hey guys, Guffman here.

I have been accused of being a caveman on my team forum because I don’t embrace a lot of these so-called advanced stats like Corsi. After much deliberation, I realized that advanced stats ARE the way of the future but the current advanced stats just are not advanced enough.

After months of careful study, I have come up with something called Goal Differential (aka The Guffman). Mere weeks after I released it privately, it is being quoted by the hockey elite.

How Goal Differential works is you takes goals scored and subtract goals against. The amazing thing about this calculation is that you can apply it at a game level as well as a longer duration of time.

Did you know that there is a 100% correlation between goal differential and winning % in any game you want to pick out? IT’S TRUE!

In the latest 31 Thoughts, arguably the best coach out there, Mike Babcock said this:

Earlier in his tenure, I asked Mike Babcock what he considers the most important statistic. Without hesitation, he replied, “Goal differential.”

Is there something to this madness? Let’s take a look at the current standings.

The top 8 seeded teams in the east also have the top eight goal differential in the conference. Is this an aberation? Let’s check out the west.

The top 8 seeded teams in the west ALSO have the top eight goal differential in their conference.

You know what guys? I think it’s safe to say, as proved out by stats, the goal differential is THE most important stat, whether you look at it at a game basis or overall for the entire season.
 
Sadly this advanced stat failed Vegas and Vancouver last year. Dallas got in with a -8 GD and the both missed with +18 and +13.
 
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I just wanted to chime in here to say The Guffman stat remains THE most notable stat in terms of team success. It was yet another year where all 16 playoff teams also had registered the top 16 stats in The Guffman index.

I discovered this stat back in March, 2019 and posted it on this subforum. It was so irrefutable and dangerous to those hawking phony "advanced stats" like Corsi (and later, xGF and xGA) that this underground community convinced the authorities to bury the thread.

At risk to my personal safety, I will share The Guffman once more to this community. Copy and save these important words and share with those that you trust who won't turn you in to the local Advanced Stats militia.

Guffman discovers new Advanced Stat

Hey guys, Guffman here. I have been accused of being a caveman on my team forum because I don’t embrace a lot of these so-called advanced stats like Corsi. After much deliberation, I realized that advanced stats ARE the way of the future but the current advanced stats just are not advanced...
forums.hfboards.com
forums.hfboards.com

Hey guys, Guffman here.

I have been accused of being a caveman on my team forum because I don’t embrace a lot of these so-called advanced stats like Corsi. After much deliberation, I realized that advanced stats ARE the way of the future but the current advanced stats just are not advanced enough.

After months of careful study, I have come up with something called Goal Differential (aka The Guffman). Mere weeks after I released it privately, it is being quoted by the hockey elite.

How Goal Differential works is you takes goals scored and subtract goals against. The amazing thing about this calculation is that you can apply it at a game level as well as a longer duration of time.

Did you know that there is a 100% correlation between goal differential and winning % in any game you want to pick out? IT’S TRUE!

In the latest 31 Thoughts, arguably the best coach out there, Mike Babcock said this:

Earlier in his tenure, I asked Mike Babcock what he considers the most important statistic. Without hesitation, he replied, “Goal differential.”

Is there something to this madness? Let’s take a look at the current standings.

The top 8 seeded teams in the east also have the top eight goal differential in the conference. Is this an aberation? Let’s check out the west.

The top 8 seeded teams in the west ALSO have the top eight goal differential in their conference.

You know what guys? I think it’s safe to say, as proved out by stats, the goal differential is THE most important stat, whether you look at it at a game basis or overall for the entire season.
Your probably a lot of fun to have a beer with and talk hockey.
 
But what about the Points Index? If you check the standings, it turns out 15 of the top 16 teams with most points are all going to the playoffs (and Florida can make it 16/16 today). Coincidence or just an anomaly? Well I checked last season's standings, and 16/16 teams with the most points made the playoffs. Please don't repost this without giving me credit, thanks.
 
But what about the Points Index? If you check the standings, it turns out 15 of the top 16 teams with most points are all going to the playoffs (and Florida can make it 16/16 today). Coincidence or just an anomaly? Well I checked last season's standings, and 16/16 teams with the most points made the playoffs. Please don't repost this without giving me credit, thanks.

It was funnier the first time it appeared in the thread.
 
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Good thing LA picked up their socks. I was pretty worried about them when they were 1/2 in the division a few months ago at like -9 GD. Unfortunate that their rise in GD precipitated a drop in the standings, but at least they maintained the validity of this stat
 
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Earlier in his tenure, I asked Mike Babcock what he considers the most important statistic. Without hesitation, he replied, “Goal differential.”
So what's the best way to measure Goal Differential? Is it Net Goals, or GF/GA ratio? :naughty:

Is there any evidence to suggest that Net Goals is superior to GF/GA ratio at predicting Regular Season success- or has no one ever asked- and that this question has never really been pursued?!
 
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While this metric is somewhat helpful you'll see that the more useful measure P% I've highlighted here is a better predictor of playoff likelihood as it accounts for the discrepancy in GP between individual franchises.

I've come across an additional fool-proof metric which is alphanumeric in orientation.

The "Xtreme metric" utilizes sophisticated Optical Character Recognition (OCR) technology to predict the playoff teams based on subtle alterations in franchise city names.

Metric2.png
 
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It didn’t actually “predict” anything. All it did was correlate winning games with scoring more than the opponent.

Imagine some people would do that with Corsi instead rofl.

So what's the best way to measure Goal Differential? Is it Net Goals, or GF/GA ratio? :naughty:

Is there any evidence to suggest that Net Goals is superior to GF/GA ratio at predicting Regular Season success- or has no one ever asked- and that this question has never really been pursued?!

I will consider writing a blog article about The Guffman for TSN this summer. It’s probably too complicated for forum discussion.


Consider this quote as a I like (since I can’t actually “like” things these days because The Man is trying to keep me down).
 

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