Henkka
Registered User
Teams go up and down and there isn't a certain formula for rebuild in the future.
I will just pick one stat: Goal differential. Detroit needs a 60 goal swing to be a bubble team this year. To be a contender they would need a 100 goal swing in goal differential. That would take a pretty significant infusion of talent, because not only would that talent need to score/prevent 100 additional goals, they would also have to offset the players they replace, so likely they would need to provide 120-130 points in new offense/defense.
Islanders did a pretty big 180 and they lost Tavares as well as Barzal being less productive this year... Things have to come together and it doesn't start and end with one player.
Veleno as a a 4th line wing and Rasmussen as center. Really.
Hey shaman, did you know the last time we won a cup our teams highest drafted players were Dan cleary and Brad Stuart, neither of which were drafted by the Red Wings.
Hey shaman, did you know the last time we won a cup our teams highest drafted players were Dan cleary and Brad Stuart, neither of which were drafted by the Red Wings.
The players that won the Cup in 2008 were:
Nicklas Lidstrom: Top 3 all time dman. Won 7 Norris trophies all after he turned 30.
Pavel Datsyuk: Drafted 5th round, 171st OA.
Henrik Zetterberg: Drafted 6th rd, 210th OA.
I did the math in another thread. Since the lockout, only 5 star players have been chosen in the 3rd round or later. Out of more than 2000 players.
Care to explain how to replicate that success in the NHL of 2019?
If you're looking for absolute guarantees you're in the wrong business.yeah but like whats the point of drafting high if you can't absolutely guarantee a hall of famer,odds are meaningless unless they are 100% certain and a lower draft pick could actually be a higher draft pick because lottery balls
Well there is a chance, but like I said I did the math and it's not pretty. It was something like a 0.002% chance. I didn't include AA but even with him the odds aren't much better.I'll admit that picks like Zetterberg and Datsyuk were a product of the Wings being ahead of the curve on scouting overseas. It's much harder to snag a good player that late now that the rest of the league has caught up. They did get AA in the 4th though so there's a chance.
Well there is a chance, but like I said I did the math and it's not pretty. It was something like a 0.002% chance. I didn't include AA but even with him the odds aren't much better.
If that were to happen, great. But it's certainly not something you can bank on or plan for.
Yeah, agreed. Depends on your threshold for "star" as well. I wouldn't call AA a star yet. I like our chances with three 2nds though!
By far best team in the league Tampa has Stamkos at 29, Hedman/Palat/Johnson 28, Kucherov 25, Point 23, McDonagh 29, Stralman 32... cup winner last year Capitals also had most of their important players between ages 25-30.
I absolutely hope we become a good team sooner than 5 years, get some playoff experience, win some playoff series. But we ain't winning no cups with most of the core under 25 or 26. Especially not a defense made up of such young players. There's really no rush. Time is time, there's no cheating it.
The players that won the Cup in 2008 were:
Nicklas Lidstrom: Top 3 all time dman. Won 7 Norris trophies all after he turned 30.
Pavel Datsyuk: Drafted 5th round, 171st OA.
Henrik Zetterberg: Drafted 6th rd, 210th OA.
I did the math in another thread. Since the lockout, only 5 star players have been chosen in the 3rd round or later. Out of more than 2000 players.
Care to explain how to replicate that success in the NHL of 2019?
I agree Datsyuk, Zetterberg and lidstrom are anomalies and probably won't happen again. But Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi and Athanasiou were all drafted after the top ten and are great players. Our top ten picks have had relatively lack luster post draft seasons.
I think Rasmussen and Zadina are both going to be great players, especially Zadina, I just wanted to give you a little context to my post.
I'm also hoping for a top two pick, but it's possible without one.
LGRW.
I agree with you there, I'm very happy with all the players you listed. But with the exception of Larkin, I think we do a disservice to the others when we pretend like this group can hang with the collections of elite youth in places like Tampa and Toronto, or Buffalo and Edmonton if they ever get their s**t together. It's just a pure numbers game. We have other teams with several players getting 40+ goals, or 90-100+ points, and here we are getting carried away because someone got 30 goals (and still less than 60 points). We have Larkin who is ~PPG with elite defence and hustle, but beyond him you have good complementary players who are good for between 40-60 points. I really hope we get some more players that knock it out of the park development-wise and become real elite guys. But that's not something you can bank on these days, everybody in the league is looking for those hidden gems now.
There's really only maybe 1 or 2 (if any) players picked outside the top 10 any given year that become elite. Hoping one of ours become that is very optimistic, hoping for more than 1 is unrealistic.I think we can hope that at least a few of Veleno, Zadina, this year's top 5 pick, Hronek, Cholowski and McIsaac can be that next wave of elite talent. We have a lot of players coming onto the team in the next couple years to go along with Larkin, AA, Mantha and Bertuzzi. And 20 other draft picks in the next two drafts. I think the Wings are in a pretty good spot right now.
Hey shaman, did you know the last time we won a cup our teams highest drafted players were Dan cleary and Brad Stuart, neither of which were drafted by the Red Wings.
Roughly:
Bert - Larkin - Mantha
AA - 2019 First - Zadina
Hirose - Ras - Svech
Glendening/Ehn/Nielsen/Veleno
DDK - Hronek
Cholo - Bowey
(Sulak/Hicketts/Lindstrom/McIsaac)
Goalies are wildcards
In 2/3 years I think this is a great foundation. This is not a Cup team but I think it's a team that top-tier talent (mainly D) would want to join as a UFA (or we make a trade) to push over the edge to contender. I choose optimistic realism over being a massive bummer.
Roughly:
Bert - Larkin - Mantha
AA - 2019 First - Zadina
Hirose - Ras - Svech
Glendening/Ehn/Nielsen/Veleno
DDK - Hronek
Cholo - Bowey
(Sulak/Hicketts/Lindstrom/McIsaac)
Goalies are wildcards
In 2/3 years I think this is a great foundation. This is not a Cup team but I think it's a team that top-tier talent (mainly D) would want to join as a UFA (or we make a trade) to push over the edge to contender. I choose optimistic realism over being a massive bummer.
Yeah exactly just look at Edmonton... hahaTeams go up and down and there isn't a certain formula for rebuild in the future.
But they don't have any elite talent and you can't win a Cup without a top 3 pick!