The Core and its flaw, imo.

[Dekes For Days]

If irony could kill, you’d be in jail for this post.

There's no irony there. "Expected cups" don't exist, and nobody except you has claimed we've won them, but expected statistics do exist and can offer valuable information.

Yes, there were below average teams

Well I'm glad you've at least now acknowledged that they weren't "bad teams", though you're still wrong. In actuality, they were average/above average teams that with a mixture of excellent goaltending covering a lot of their flaws, some injuries to some key opposition players, and some puck luck, squeaked out wins against us.

If we’re an excuse or two away from losing to teams like that, we’re not contenders.

What you call "excuses" are actually legitimate factors that influence playoff outcomes, and it took multiple of the most impactful ones at the same time to barely beat us. Contenders lose to lesser teams all the time, to the point where a literal monkey spinning a wheel gave better predictions than a bunch of so-called hockey analysts during an era with less parity than we have now.

League-leading Vegas lost to the exact same Montreal last playoffs too (in less games), and the year before we faced Columbus, modern-era-record-setting, soon-to-be back-to-back Cup champion Tampa got swept by them, just to name a couple.

 

[Gabriel426]

for the sake of putting this to bed, I respect your opinion. I hope we are one of the biggest contenders by seasons end.

I don't think it matters whether we are contenders or not. The only thing that matters is winning the Cup or a few rounds in the playoffs.
Thats why I don't understand why some here kept arguing Leafs is a contenders, look at the stats.....Leafs could be the last place team in the playoffs but when they win the Cup a few weeks later, EVERYONE will be saying they are the CHAMP, and all those so called contenders choked.

 

[Racer88]

It's amazing isn't it?! Especially how they go out with a whimper. Muzzin knows it, Rielly knows it and yet posters here know otherwise somehow....

That is so true

 

[ER89]

The core and team are perfectly fine, and they're not "pushovers".

The biggest flaw of this team is its fans and media.

What a stupid post.

 

[Dreakmur]

There's no irony there. "Expected cups" don't exist, and nobody except you has claimed we've won them, but expected statistics do exist and can offer valuable information.

They both exist in the same way - somebody made them up and pretended they mean something.

Well I'm glad you've at least now acknowledged that they weren't "bad teams", though you're still wrong. In actuality, they were average/above average teams that with a mixture of excellent goaltending covering a lot of their flaws, some injuries to some key opposition players, and some puck luck, squeaked out wins against us.

I think below average is bad.

What you call "excuses" are actually legitimate factors that influence playoff outcomes, and it took multiple of the most impactful ones at the same time to barely beat us. Contenders lose to lesser teams all the time, to the point where a literal monkey spinning a wheel gave better predictions than a bunch of so-called hockey analysts during an era with less parity than we have now.

Sure. If we’re a couple of “legitimate factors” away from losing to non-playoff teams, we aren’t contenders.

League-leading Vegas lost to the exact same Montreal last playoffs too (in less games), and the year before we faced Columbus, modern-era-record-setting, soon-to-be back-to-back Cup champion Tampa got swept by them, just to name a couple.

Yes, both those teams player badly and lost. The leafs played badly too. The difference is that the leafs always play that way in the playoffs.

Tampa lost and then made significant changes, not only to their roster but to their style of play.

 

[Gallagbi]

Tampa lost and then made significant changes, not only to their roster but to their style of play.

What do you think their significant roster changes were from sweep to cup? They definitely started playing more defensively, but you've seen a similar evolution with the Leafs the last 2 playoffs where chances against were minimal

 

[Dreakmur]

What do you think their significant roster changes were from sweep to cup? They definitely started playing more defensively, but you've seen a similar evolution with the Leafs the last 2 playoffs where chances against were minimal

The additions of Goodrow and Coleman changed the makeup their top-6. Adding Maroon, Bogosian, and Schenn gave depth of physicality. It also helped that Cirelli, Cernak, and Sergachev became real players during the 2020 season.

The leafs gave up minimal chances because Columbus and Montreal barely even tried to score. All they did was sit back and hope for a turnover.

 

[Gallagbi]

The additions of Goodrow and Coleman changed the makeup their top-6. Adding Maroon, Bogosian, and Schenn gave depth of physicality. It also helped that Cirelli, Cernak, and Sergachev became real players during the 2020 season.

So they flipped two middle 6 forwards, added a fourth liner, 6th D and 7th D. Worth noting that Schenn and Bogo were often dressed together to combine to fill the 6th D spot while Shattenkirk and Cernak were steadily in the top 4.

As good as Coleman ans Goodrow are, they replaced Miller and Callahan, who were physical and tough players themselves. It was more about them clicking with Gourde than bringing a new element IMO.

Shattenkirk was a big add for them, but one that likely doesn't fit the changed the way they play thought.

As for the Leafs, I'd argue there defensive improvements can be seen over regular season as well and the way we've changed as a team is evident.

 

[Gary Nylund]

As for the Leafs, I'd argue there defensive improvements can be seen over regular season as well and the way we've changed as a team is evident.

Defensive improvements, really? What improvements?

They showed the stats on the broadcast a little while ago and while everyone knows that our goalies have sucked, some people may not realize how bad we've been as a team defensively. 18th in expected goals against if I remember correctly since December 1. That's just brutal and I'm wondering what the hell has happened to this team? This is not just a bad streak that all teams go through, this is almost three!! months of sub playoff quality team defence and this is what this team is right now, that's all there is to it.

Talk of this team winning a cup this spring is a pipe dream. And comparing us to TB is just ... I don't even know what to say to that other than to say that it's a complete waste of time - one has been the best team in the NHL for a few years now, the other one is our team and there is no basis for comparison here whatsoever.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They both exist in the same way - somebody made them up and pretended they mean something.

No, "expected cups" don't exist, and as a result, it doesn't mean anything. "Expected statistics" do exist, and offer valuable information.

I think below average is bad.

Well, they weren't below average or bad, and those are very obviously not the same thing.

If we’re a couple of “legitimate factors” away from losing to non-playoff teams, we aren’t contenders.

Nobody is losing to non-playoff teams in the playoffs. If they are in the playoffs, they are playoff teams. Contenders lose to lesser playoff teams all the time, and it doesn't change the fact that they were contenders, or prevent them from being contenders in the future.

Yes, both those teams player badly and lost. The leafs played badly too. The difference is that the leafs always play that way in the playoffs.

No, the Leafs do not always play badly in the playoffs. If the extent of your analysis is "team that lose play bad", then I think that says it all. There's more that factors into playoff outcomes than that, and some of us prefer to discuss the playoffs and what happens in more accurate and detailed ways.

Tampa lost and then made significant changes

Tampa did not make significant changes. They played around with the bottom of their forward and defensive depth (kinda like we have), but pretty much everything else from their coach to their goalie to their forward and defensive core stayed exactly the same. In fact, they had more significant losses than improvements. And again, they didn't just lose; they got swept.

 

[Menzinger]

The thing is, folks can say the same thing about every core that doesn't immediately succeed (recall the incredibly stupid things people used to say about Ovie and the Caps main guys).

That doesn't mean the Leafs are guaranteed to find success either. But obsessing over these supposed qualitative qualities of champs vs chokers just leads to circular discussions.

 

[Menzinger]

Leafs have tons of offensive talent, the problem as I see it as a traditionalist is "Defense wins Championships".

Leafs defense and goaltending is forcing the team to score 4 or more goals in run support and that is not a winning strategy nor going to work when the playoffs start.

Though interestingly the Leafs gave up just 14 goals against during the Habs series, while scoring 18 of their own.

 

[meefer]

Because I love the city and I love the team. Change will only happen when enough people let management know that they are unhappy with the direction the team is heading. I was at all the final games of the 1967 Cup.Travelled twice to Montreal for games 1, 2 & 5 with my mother. Bottom line, I hate what this management team has done to a team I love.

Saw the final game in '67, wish I'd been there. Lucky you.

 

[SoulOnIce]

I agree with the premise, this team is too soft. It showed again tonight when Kerfoot was tripped after shooting puck into empty net. He got up and did nothing. Players on ice, marner, Taveras, did nothing. You have to stand up for yourself and your teammates.

Adding lyubushkin was a positive step but now you have lost muzzin. I’m not sure if simply adding toughness around core will be enough to change mentality but probably all that will be done in season. Another playoff failure and you need to start moving some soft players.

last few cup winners have been nasty and it’s not a coincidence.

 

[meefer]

Just to clarify a point I made in the OP: I like our core, I think there are some of the most talented players in the league on our team. In my opinion, however, our team should be more difficult to play against than it is. We do not stand up well to aggressive play and I would like to see that change a bit. A more ruthless, determined, f*ck you attitude would help us. I am not advocating that we go get brawlers, I believe we can stand up for ourselves and become a more complete team if the core begins to display a more hardened and supported approach to physical play. Be the first person into a scrum when one of ours is being pushed around, send a message with an elbow if the refs aren't calling it right, give the jab with the stick when you get jabbed don't skate away, throw a check. Do these things and you'll find the rest of the team responding in kind. We would be a better team if we stood up for ourselves, and imo that starts at the top.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The core and team are perfectly fine, and they're not "pushovers".

The biggest flaw of this team is its fans and media.

Yes, the fans & media should just strap on the pads and win us a few playoff games LOL. That would solve the problem for sure. A bad carpenter always blames his tools.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

it's amazing how getting the worst goaltending in the league shows how the real problem was actually toughness

That Freddie guy isn't playing too bad for the Canes.

 

[Maplebeasts]

That Freddie guy isn't playing too bad for the Canes.

That Freddy guy was also hot garbage for 2 1/2 seasons in a row before we moved on. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

[ACC1224]

That Freddie guy isn't playing too bad for the Canes.

His issue was always between his ears when the games got tougher.
We'll see how Playoff Andersen looks there, we know how it looked here.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

His issue was always between his ears when the games got tougher.
We'll see how Playoff Andersen looks there, we know how it looked here.

Yes, playoffs are a different animal as we have seen from our performance in the playoffs. We've been perennial chokers up to this point.

I think Canes team defense is better though, so that could be a difference. Nevertheless, Freddie will have to perform well & bring his A game during the playoffs. We'll see what happens in the future though for sure. Time will tell.

 

[ACC1224]

Yes, playoffs are a different animal as we have seen from our performance in the playoffs. We've been perennial chokers up to this point.

I think Canes team defense is better though, so that could be a difference. Nevertheless, Freddie will have to perform well & bring his A game during the playoffs. We'll see what happens in the future though for sure. Time will tell.

He was prone to the soft goals at the worse times. Unfortunately Campbell did the same last year.

 

[Box Score Watcher]

Just to clarify a point I made in the OP: I like our core, I think there are some of the most talented players in the league on our team. In my opinion, however, our team should be more difficult to play against than it is. We do not stand up well to aggressive play and I would like to see that change a bit. A more ruthless, determined, f*ck you attitude would help us. I am not advocating that we go get brawlers, I believe we can stand up for ourselves and become a more complete team if the core begins to display a more hardened and supported approach to physical play. Be the first person into a scrum when one of ours is being pushed around, send a message with an elbow if the refs aren't calling it right, give the jab with the stick when you get jabbed don't skate away, throw a check. Do these things and you'll find the rest of the team responding in kind. We would be a better team if we stood up for ourselves, and imo that starts at the top.

I like this. You keep on seeing in any McDavid and Draisaitl thread, a group of posters, many being leaf fans, saying that “McDavid and Draisaitl don’t play defence, so why would the lesser players battle if the star players don’t do it?” And it completely applies to toughness on this leafs squad.

Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander have a combined ONE fight in almost 31 seasons of nhl hockey. And that one single fight was Tavares, 12 years ago. If the bottom 6 guys see the big 4 cruising around shying away from any sort of psychical play, and completely avoiding confrontation, why wouldn’t they follow the lead of their leaders?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

He was prone to the soft goals at the worse times. Unfortunately Campbell did the same last year.

True. We are focused on just problematic goaltending though.

Your best players have to be your best players in the playoffs. Our star forwards are going to have to perform at the highest level.

That is especially true given how this team is built where we spend a big chunk of the cap on a small number of forwards. If you half of them MIA in key games, its going to be problematic. Can our top guns step up when its a more physical game, and there's less time & space? We haven't seen that so far at least.

 

[Mess]

Though interestingly the Leafs gave up just 14 goals against during the Habs series, while scoring 18 of their own.

That is a bit misleading when you use only the total goals in the series, because even though Leafs scored more goals overall this is helping prove "offense doesn't win".

Its not most goals in a 7 game series that wins, its on a game by game basis, where first team to 4 wins advances.

In Leafs 3 wins they only gave up 2 goals against total, but it doesn't matter if you win 5-1 or 4-0 or 2-1, that is a lot of excess goals [11 GF] that don't factor in the outcome because you only gave up 2 combined to win those games. Only 5 of those Goals For factored into winning those game.

However in Leafs 4 losses they surrendered 12 goals against = average of 3 GA/g and would have needed 4 goals for themselves to give themselves a chance in games #5, #6 and #7 when they lead the series 3-1 at the time. Montreal only gave up 7 goals against in their 4 wins = < 2 GA/g in victories and cementing the "defense wins" theory.

Conference First Round
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	Goalie	Top Performer
Thu, May 20	vs Montreal	L2-1	Campbell	Campbell
Sat, May 22	vs Montreal	W5-1	Campbell	Matthews
Mon, May 24	@ Montreal	W2-1	Campbell	Campbell
Tue, May 25	@ Montreal	W4-0	Campbell	Campbell
Thu, May 27	vs Montreal	L4-3 OT	Campbell	Muzzin
Sat, May 29	@ Montreal	L3-2 OT	Campbell	Brodie
Mon, May 31	vs Montreal	L3-1	Campbell	Nylander

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ACC1224]

True. We are focused on just problematic goaltending though.

Your best players have to be your best players in the playoffs. Our star forwards are going to have to perform at the highest level.

That is especially true given how this team is built where we spend a big chunk of the cap on a small number of forwards. If you half of them MIA in key games, its going to be problematic. Can our top guns step up when its a more physical game, and there's less time & space? We haven't seen that so far at least.

I certainly realize it's more than one thing. The post I initially responded to was refering to Andersen.