The Core and its flaw, imo.

[Koolboss]

That has always been amazing to me. Shanahan was a huge physical presence on the ice. I saw it so many times at work over my many years, a new boy genius comes in and the normally savvy old guys fall all over themselves to try and please the new genius. I would say that about 10% of the time the kid acrually was a genius. More often than not the company had to dig themselves out of the mess the kid put them in. Dubas is no genius, not hip, not cool, and has assembled a team that is going to set the Leafs back 10-15 years. Disappointing that Shanahan drank the Dubas Kool-aid.

Finally some poster are realizing it 3 years too late though
Feels good be right but sucks at the same time

 

[meefer]

a serious candidate according to who , the Toronto based media/insiders that are all employed by the same parent companies that own the Leafs ?

we're a high scoring team and he plays with quality players so he'll get his points vulturing around the net and on the pp but if you can't see how he keeps slowing down and struggling to keep up with the flow of the play then there's no use having a discussion since it's not my job as a fan of the team to consistently make excuses for our 11m dollar Captain

And it's not my job to attempt to convert your view. You don't like him, ok. But don't suggest it was simply Toronto media that was hyping him for TC. Simply not the case. And his stats suggest that as slow as he is, perhaps his vulturing is not simply vulturing, the guy has been doing what he's been doing for years. As to the Cap issue, for god's sake, did Dubas, or any other GM who see's their team up against it, see Covid around the corner?

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Our flaws are we're still afraid of getting hit and have no response when playing big physical teams and our goalies really suck. Defense is suddenly a tire fire too.

 

[Mess]

Having 3 X $11 mil forwards ranked in the top 7 overall highest cap hits is a seriously flawed team building design in a Salary Cap World.

No team has to face this greenhorn GM self inflicted wound and obstacle, not even close of 3 skaters = 41.8 % C.H.% of their total Cap available.

Then JT gets hurt and Matthews Marner combined for 1 single goal in 7 playoff games combined and "you sunk my battleship".

All the opposition needs to essentially do is contain 3 Leaf players or play them at par because then you're asking 58% of the remaining Cap balance to defeat 100% of the opposition so the odds are stacked heavily against you.

PLAYER	TEAM	AGE	POS	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	+/-	Sh	Sh%	TOI	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %
1. Connor McDavid	EDM	24	C	50	28	45	73	1.46	10	195	0.14	22:22	$12,500,000	16.7%
2. Artemi Panarin	NYR	29	LW	45	14	41	55	1.22	2	116	0.12	19:22	$11,642,857	14.3%
3. Auston Matthews	TOR	23	C	47	34	28	62	1.32	7	213	0.16	20:37	$11,640,250	14.6%
4. Erik Karlsson	SJS	31	RD	33	8	18	26	0.79	-4	83	0.10	23:06	$11,500,000	14.5%
5. John Tavares	TOR	30	C	49	17	30	47	0.96	-3	156	0.11	18:13	$11,000,000	13.8%
6. Drew Doughty	LAK	31	RD	32	7	22	29	0.91	7	85	0.08	25:45	$11,000,000	13.8%
7. Mitchell Marner	TOR	24	RW	41	17	29	46	1.12	12	127	0.13	20:46	$10,903,000	13.4%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Shooter2x]

At least Holl confirms management chooses eye test over analytics when it comes to watching your own team day in and out. If anyone ever accuses Dubas of biasing analytics, point them towards Holl being scratched and getting lessons from the development team after putting up the best defensive stats on the team.

I'd be shocked if he doesn't add a Clutterbuck or two for the run.

 

[hotpaws]

At least Holl confirms management chooses eye test over analytics when it comes to watching your own team day in and out. If anyone ever accuses Dubas of biasing analytics, point them towards Holl being scratched and getting lessons from the development team after putting up the best defensive stats on the team.

I'd be shocked if he doesn't add a Clutterbuck or two for the run.

you can point to Holl being protected over McCann as proof Dubas chooses analytics over the eye test

Holl being scratched is Keefe having enough of his f*** ups but no worries since he’ll be back in the lineup soon enough .

 

[killer1980]

Finally some poster are realizing it 3 years too late though
Feels good be right but sucks at the same time

Been saying this since the day of the Dubas hire presser. It doesn't feel good to be right . It makes me sick realising I'll never see another Stanley Cup in my lifetime.

 

[meefer]

This is a sad but true statement, it's a commentary on society, that we can't have civil discourse about a sports team, without having to resort to the extremes option.

No worries, friend, I'll take it if warranted.

 

[meefer]

Been saying this since the day of the Dubas hire presser. It doesn't feel good to be right . It makes me sick realising I'll never see another Stanley Cup in my lifetime.

Respectfully, why are you here? If this is your opinion, then drop the team and enjoy life.

 

[Mess]

No, they were bad teams. Without covid-adjusted playoff formats, neither Columbus nor Montreal even qualify.

See not everyone is noticing that fact, that Leafs past 2 embarrassing playoff losses have come against teams that wouldn't even have qualified to make the playoffs under regular rules.

What is going to happen when Leafs end up playing against actual playoff teams that qualified on their own merits and much better ones we have already lost to? Guess we will find out this year.

Since Dec 1st (nearly 3 months now) Leafs goaltending tandem has produced below .900 sv% which ranks the Leafs 31st overall in sv% in the league during that time. How is anyone expected to show any optimism of a long Leafs run when their goaltending performance is nearly bottom of the league?

We're talking 2 good months Oct and Nov and now 3 bad months Dec, Jan, Feb and what have you done lately far more important then what happened months ago as the playoffs get closer.

 

[killer1980]

Respectfully, why are you here? If this is your opinion, then drop the team and enjoy life.

Because I love the city and I love the team. Change will only happen when enough people let management know that they are unhappy with the direction the team is heading. I was at all the final games of the 1967 Cup.Travelled twice to Montreal for games 1, 2 & 5 with my mother. Bottom line, I hate what this management team has done to a team I love.

 

[Stephen]

I don’t like thinking of the core group’s personality as a fatal flaw. If we need more face punchers we should get more face punchers. If we need more cap space we need to carve out space. If the Big 5 needs to be modified it needs to be modified. If we need a core goalie, let’s go get a core goalie. I think process it out and be ruthless as required.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

See not everyone is noticing that fact, that Leafs past 2 embarrassing playoff losses have come against teams that wouldn't even have qualified to make the playoffs under regular rules.

What is going to happen when Leafs end up playing against actual playoff teams that qualified on their own merits and much better ones we have already lost to? Guess we will find out this year.

Since Dec 1st (nearly 3 months now) Leafs goaltending tandem has produced below .900 sv% which ranks the Leafs 31st overall in sv% in the league during that time. How is anyone expected to show any optimism of a long Leafs run when their goaltending performance is nearly bottom of the league?

We're talking 2 good months Oct and Nov and now 3 bad months Dec, Jan, Feb and what have you done lately far more important then what happened months ago as the playoffs get closer.

I think what will happen is Woll will end up our tender in playoffs get going if Soup falls on his sword .. Woll is a big game tender and has proven in his past to be able to win games when his teams are badly outplayed .. in fact it occurred most of his young life .. most fans have no idea how good this kid is .. but da team would have to get a better defense in front of him which clears net/all rebounds and lets him focus on 1 on 1 saves .. he is best 1on1 tender we have in org .. in fact he is best breakaway tender I have seen since Roy

 

[AvroArrow]

Breaking news, this group lacks toughness. We've all known this for 5 years now. Matthews needs to stop laughing when players rough him up, that would be a huge change. Your best players usually have the biggest influence, that kinda shit isn't acceptable. The core guys need to find it within themselves, but we also need to surround them with that kind of presence. We need at least 3 big body guys that use it added to the roster.

We can complain about the refs being garbage and not calling roughing/interference etc. all we want, but that'll never change. This team needs to adapt. I still think they are one of the best teams in the league, but we need a physical presence in the top 6, and at least 1 more on D.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It’s just an expansion of expected goals.

No, "expected" statistics are valuable information about a team's offensive generation and defensive suppression. "Expected cups" aren't a thing, and I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that we won this non-existent thing.

No, they were bad teams.

No, they weren't "bad teams". They were average to above average teams that got excellent goaltending for a stretch to cover for a lot of their flaws.

Yep, but we've also seen them stand around and not protect each other.

Not really. They stand up and protect each other. We're just not usually initiators, and we don't completely abandon trying to win games scrambling for endless blood after any decently sized clean hit, like some fans seem to want.

Alright, so 22% of the league are "big contenders".

I mean, that's not really what I said, but there are usually a handful of teams with legitimate chances at the cup. I'm not sure why you think there'd be some big separation between the top-3 and everybody else.

I typically view the top 3 teams as the biggest contenders for post season success.

That's fine I guess, though for the record, you named the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best teams and excluded the #1 team. Also, just FYI, the majority of recent cup winners wouldn't be considered the "biggest contenders for post season success" then.

Our "rough patch" is inconsequential, considering lots of the top teams have had rough patches, non have seemed to stretch as long as ours, which in and of itself should be indicative of something...

Tampa last year went through a 2-5 stretch, and also lost 3 in a row to end the season - including losing to their 1st round opponent twice in a row in the final two games by a combined score of 9-1. They won the cup.

Tampa the year before went through a 5-5-2 stretch near the beginning of the season, a 2-4-1 stretch in the middle, and ended their season on a 3-6-1 stretch. They won the cup.

The year before, St Louis went 21-22-5 through the first 48 games of the season, and even towards the end of that season, went through a 3-4-2 stretch. They won the cup.

Our small rough patch isn't really indicative of anything.

However, is it wrong for me to ask of them to play a more aggressive game, one that is required in the playoffs, to succeed?

It's not wrong to desire a more aggressive style of team if that's your preference, but the idea that we're soft, purposeless, and we need significant changes and a specific style of team to be successful in the playoffs is wrong. Our "aggressiveness" is not nearly as unique as people like to pretend, and teams have won with a wide range of styles and make-ups anyway.

I watch about 50/50 leafs vs other teams, i pick a game or 2 a day and watch whoever is playing.

That's great, and I'm sure that helps you stay more level-headed about the things you see with the Leafs. But if the Leafs are playing, I assume you watch them, right? And I assume that you have the most emotional investment in the Leafs, right? Which means that you're watching more Leaf games than any other team, and you're receiving and processing that information in different ways with different biases and backstory - likely often without even noticing.

the main difference is not that they dont make similar errors, its that they dont always end up a goal against with the frequency our mistakes do.

I mean, that's true. Our goalies have struggled recently, and need to be better. But that's different from this being a forward issue, or a defensive issue, or a toughness issue.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I think what will happen is Woll will end up our tender in playoffs get going if Soup falls on his sword .. Woll is a big game tender and has proven in his past to be able to win games when his teams are badly outplayed .. in fact it occurred most of his young life .. most fans have no idea how good this kid is .. but da team would have to get a better defense in front of him which clears net/all rebounds and lets him focus on 1 on 1 saves .. he is best 1on1 tender we have in org .. in fact he is best breakaway tender I have seen since Roy

No disrespect, but you can’t be serious. We would be f***ed in the head to start Woll.

 

[notbias]

All the opposition needs to essentially do is contain 3 Leaf players or play them at par because then you're asking 58% of the remaining Cap balance to defeat 100% of the opposition so the odds are stacked heavily against you.

Ridiculous view. Your opinion is that players only play at their cap hit? So just contain the expensive players, because Nylander, Bunting, Rielly, Kase, etc all can't score because they don't make enough?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

No disrespect, but you can’t be serious. We would be f***ed in the head to start Woll.

I am dead serious .. Woll is da best 1on1 tender we have BY FAR .. take away passing lanes and let him take on shooters directly .. he is big and EXTREMELY athletic and attacks shooters .. Soup lets in house league goals and Mrazek was dumped by Canes because they knew he was useless .. and he regularly stopped Matty, Mitch and McJesus virtually every time .. I have seen him as a kid play against a team of guys who mostly in NHL and AHL today in a total blowout chance game with 90%+ possession, 60+ shots, 10+ breakaways and WIN it on his own with 1 goal by Tkachuk

 

[WTFMAN99]

I don't disagree with any of this.

Worst of all, I fear if we bounce in round 1, one of 88 or Marner goes and JT stays when the tread is definitely heavily worn compared to the younger guys.

 

[notbias]

No, they were bad teams. Without covid-adjusted playoff formats, neither Columbus nor Montreal even qualify.

See not everyone is noticing that fact, that Leafs past 2 embarrassing playoff losses have come against teams that wouldn't even have qualified to make the playoffs under regular rules.

2019-2020
Leafs - 70GP | 36W | 25L | 9OTL | 81pts
Columbus - 70GP | 33W | 22L | 15OTL | 81pts

Lets not try to pretend like the Leafs had a much better record than Columbus to push the narrative you want.

 

[Apotheosis]

Honestly, I think the JT signing was a huge mistake. He doesn't even really fit with the identity of the team. He's too slow. Doesn't make up for it defensively as of late either.

 

[CDN24]

Having 3 X $11 mil forwards ranked in the top 7 overall highest cap hits is a seriously flawed team building design in a Salary Cap World.

No team has to face this greenhorn GM self inflicted wound and obstacle, not even close of 3 skaters = 41.8 % C.H.% of their total Cap available.

Then JT gets hurt and Matthews Marner combined for 1 single goal in 7 playoff games combined and "you sunk my battleship".

All the opposition needs to essentially do is contain 3 Leaf players or play them at par because then you're asking 58% of the remaining Cap balance to defeat 100% of the opposition so the odds are stacked heavily against you.

PLAYER	TEAM	AGE	POS	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	+/-	Sh	Sh%	TOI	CAP HIT	CAP HIT %
1. Connor McDavid	EDM	24	C	50	28	45	73	1.46	10	195	0.14	22:22	$12,500,000	16.7%
2. Artemi Panarin	NYR	29	LW	45	14	41	55	1.22	2	116	0.12	19:22	$11,642,857	14.3%
3. Auston Matthews	TOR	23	C	47	34	28	62	1.32	7	213	0.16	20:37	$11,640,250	14.6%
4. Erik Karlsson	SJS	31	RD	33	8	18	26	0.79	-4	83	0.10	23:06	$11,500,000	14.5%
5. John Tavares	TOR	30	C	49	17	30	47	0.96	-3	156	0.11	18:13	$11,000,000	13.8%
6. Drew Doughty	LAK	31	RD	32	7	22	29	0.91	7	85	0.08	25:45	$11,000,000	13.8%
7. Mitchell Marner	TOR	24	RW	41	17	29	46	1.12	12	127	0.13	20:46	$10,903,000	13.4%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It didn't work after the lockout when Tampa had all their cap tied up in Vinny L, MSL, and Brad Richards plus a chunk on Khabibulin and who was the D Man - Dan Boyle? It didn't work then and it won't work now.

 

[mclaren55]

No, "expected" statistics are valuable information about a team's offensive generation and defensive suppression. "Expected cups" aren't a thing, and I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that we won this non-existent thing.

No, they weren't "bad teams". They were average to above average teams that got excellent goaltending for a stretch to cover for a lot of their flaws.

Not really. They stand up and protect each other. We're just not usually initiators, and we don't completely abandon trying to win games scrambling for endless blood after any decently sized clean hit, like some fans seem to want.

I mean, that's not really what I said, but there are usually a handful of teams with legitimate chances at the cup. I'm not sure why you think there'd be some big separation between the top-3 and everybody else.

That's fine I guess, though for the record, you named the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best teams and excluded the #1 team. Also, just FYI, the majority of recent cup winners wouldn't be considered the "biggest contenders for post season success" then.

Tampa last year went through a 2-5 stretch, and also lost 3 in a row to end the season - including losing to their 1st round opponent twice in a row in the final two games by a combined score of 9-1. They won the cup.

Tampa the year before went through a 5-5-2 stretch near the beginning of the season, a 2-4-1 stretch in the middle, and ended their season on a 3-6-1 stretch. They won the cup.

The year before, St Louis went 21-22-5 through the first 48 games of the season, and even towards the end of that season, went through a 3-4-2 stretch. They won the cup.

Our small rough patch isn't really indicative of anything.

It's not wrong to desire a more aggressive style of team if that's your preference, but the idea that we're soft, purposeless, and we need significant changes and a specific style of team to be successful in the playoffs is wrong. Our "aggressiveness" is not nearly as unique as people like to pretend, and teams have won with a wide range of styles and make-ups anyway.

That's great, and I'm sure that helps you stay more level-headed about the things you see with the Leafs. But if the Leafs are playing, I assume you watch them, right? And I assume that you have the most emotional investment in the Leafs, right? Which means that you're watching more Leaf games than any other team, and you're receiving and processing that information in different ways with different biases and backstory - likely often without even noticing.

I mean, that's true. Our goalies have struggled recently, and need to be better. But that's different from this being a forward issue, or a defensive issue, or a toughness issue.

You're right, I named three of the top four teams, not the seventh (as you did). If you are using that as some way to demonstrate me shooting myself in the foot, you're being nonsensical.

Also for the record, the last 10 cup winners placed on average in the top 6 of the league standings. Notable exceptions to this are LA and St. Louis (whom you are insinuating were a top contender the year they won, they weren't.)

Using St. Louis as your example in terms of winning a cup while playing like shit should tell you something. Outliers are possible, but it isn't the rule. The rule is you typically have to be top 6 to be considered a contender according to the data. Sure the St. Louis and LA Kings happen from time to time, but they aren't typical. So once again, I don't think the Leafs are top contenders, as we are sitting 7th in the standings currently. If they go on a tear again and place inside the top 6, I'll concede to your statement that they could be considered serious contenders.

I will also state that through this discussion with you, you've changed my opinion on whom should be considered top contenders (top 6, not top 3 as I originally stated).

 

[TML Dynasty]

Not really. They stand up and protect each other. We're just not usually initiators, and we don't completely abandon trying to win games scrambling for endless blood after any decently sized clean hit, like some fans seem to want.

Gotcha, youve never seen them not defend each other. Guess we end the conversation here as it seems you're trying to force a point. Yes we have seen them pushback. No they dont do it all the time. Id like to see more of it. We both dont want them hurtinmg magic hands by dropping the mitts. Have a good one

 

[frizzer1]

Watched a bit of a game last night. After a goalie stopped a shot one of the forwards took a shot at him.....the other team went berserk....and then everyone on the ice was involved.
The leafs rarely ,if ever, respond this way....and lately their d men have been ragdolled all over the ice and they still don't respond.

Question....is this a team strategy?
And...how much effect does it have on winning and losing , especially in the playoffs?